93 10%+ Dividend Yield Dogs Frolic In September

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Includes: ARLP, BPT, CCR, CHMI, CINF, CPTA, CTPTY, CTPZY, DBMG, DCP, DLHLY, ERELY, GARS, GPP, NRZ, OAOFY, OMP, TLTZY
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

These Top 93 Dividend Dogs showed 10%+ forward yield, $5.00+ prices, and $100M+ market caps as of 8/28/19. Yields above 12.85% winnowed the list to 30.

Target-estimated September top-ten net gains ranged 40.71-77.11% for GARS, GPP, CHMI, CCR, NRZ, DCP, CMFN, ARLP, CPTA, and top pick, OMP, per YCharts dividend and broker data.

30 Top stocks estimated annual yield ranged 12.88-40.89%. Top ten, CCR, CHMI, ERELY, DHLY, DBMG, TLTZY, CTPTY, OAOFY, CTPZY, and top pick, BPT, averaged 21.33% yield.

Top-ten firms by Wall Street target price upsides, WES, ARLP, SHI, BSM, CXW, CPTA, SNP, BPT, FLMN, and top dog OMP averaged a 44.72% estimated price gain to 2020.

$5k invested 8/28/19 in the lowest-priced five 10%+ top-yield ten dividend stocks showed 10.04% less projected net gain than from $5k invested in all ten, per broker targets.  The high-priced bigger Top Dogs returned to dominate this September 10%+yield pack.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculated 40.71% To 77.11% Net Gains For Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks By September 1, 2020

Three of ten top 10%+Yield Dogs were among the top ten gainers for the coming year (based on analyst 1-year targets). Thus, this forecast for 10%+ Yields, as graded by Wall St. Brokers, was 30% accurate.

Projections based on dividends from $1000 invested in the highest-yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst median target prices of those stocks, as reported by YCharts, created the 2020 data points. Note: one-year target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades to September 1, 2020, were:

Source: YCharts

Oasis Midstream Partners (OMP) was projected to net $771.05 based on a median target price estimate from eight analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for OMP.

Capitala Finance Corp. (CPTA) was projected to net $547.02, based on the median of target price estimates from six analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 11% more than the market as a whole.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) was projected to net $518.03 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from four brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 4% less than the market as a whole.

DCP Midstream, LP (DCP) was projected to net $485.44 based on the median of target price estimates from sixteen analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 108% over the market as a whole.

New Residential Investment (NRZ) was projected to net $454.22 based the median of target price estimates from nine analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 7% over the market as a whole.

CONSOL Coal Resources (CCR) netted $452.10 based on the median of target price estimates from four analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 3% under the market as a whole.

Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) was projected to net $451.07, based on target price estimates from three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% less than the market as a whole.

Green Plains Partners (GPP) was projected to net $422.99, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 50% less than the market as a whole.

Garrison Capital (GARS) was projected to net $407.11, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% under the market as a whole.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) was projected to net $398.90, based on dividends alone, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 18% opposite the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 26.29% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk 7% less than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alert) Analysts Predicted One 10%+ Yield Stock To Lose 6.47% By September 1, 2020

The probable losing trade revealed by Y-Charts to 2020 was:

Source:YCharts

Oxford Square Capital Corp. (OXSQ) lost $64.77 net per the median of target estimates from two analysts, including dividends, and broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 54% less than the market as a whole.

Source: vetstreet.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are in fact best called "underdogs."

93 10%+Yield September Top Dogs By Broker Price Target Upsides

Source:YCharts

93 10%+Yield Top Dogs By Yield

Source:YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (12-21) Top Ten 10%+Dog Yields Ranged 16.33-40.89%

Top ten 10%+Yield Top Dogs selected 8/28/19 by yield represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Top stock on the list was the first of two energy representatives: BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [1]. The other energy stocks placed third, Tatneft PJSC (OTCPK:OAOFY) [3].

One utilities representative got its two stock issues into the second, and fourth places: Companhia de Transmissão de Energia Elétrica Paulista S.A. (OTCPK:CTPZY) [2]; and (OTCPK:CTPTY) [4].

The lone communication services representative placed fifth, Tele2 AB (OTCPK:TLTZY) [5]. Also the lone industrials representative placed sixth, DBM Global Inc. (OTCPK:DBMG) [5].

Finally, three basic materials stocks placed seventh, eighth, and tenth on the list, Delong Holdings Ltd. (OTCPK:DLHLY) [7], Eregli Demir Ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (OTCPK:ERELY) [8], and CONSOL Coal Resources LP [10]. Then, the lone real estate representative placed ninth, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp. [9], to complete the 10%+ Yield Top Dog top ten for September 2019-20.

Actionable Conclusions: (22-31) Ten 10%+ Yield Top Dogs Showed 23.46% To 64.86% Upsides To September 2020; (22) Lowest Downsides Had Two At -0.97% And -18.57%.

Source:YCharts

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 10.04% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced 10%+ Yield Top Dogs To September 2020

Ten top 10%+ Yield Dogs were culled by yield for this September update. Yield (dividend/price) results from YCharts, verified by YahooFinance, did the ranking.

Source:YCharts

As noted above, top ten 10%+Yield Top Dogs selected 8/28/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented six of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest-Priced Top Ten Highest-Yield 10%+ Top Dogs (32) Delivering 23.65% Vs. (33) 26.28% Net Gains From All Ten By August 28, 2020

Source:YCharts

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield Top Dogs collection was predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 10.04% less net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The seventh lowest priced 10%+ top yield WallStar, CONSOL Coal Resources LP, was projected by analysts to deliver the best net gain of 45.21%.

Source:YCharts

The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of August 28 were: Eregli Demir Ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS; Tele2 AB; Cia de Transmissao de Energia Eletrica Paulista; BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust; Cia de Transmissao de Energia Eletrica Paulista, with prices ranging from $6.71 to $9.05.

Five higher-priced 10%+ Dividend Top Dogs from August 28 were: Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.; CONSOL Coal Resources LP; DBM Global Inc.; Delong Holdings Ltd (DLHY); Tatneft PJSC, whose prices ranged from $11.95 to $63.42.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10%+ Yield Dividend Dog purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: vetstreet.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long MFCSF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.