A Look At The Top 5 Lithium-Ion Battery Manufacturers In 2019

Sep. 04, 2019 2:35 PM ETBMWYY, BYDDF, BYDDY, MBGAF, F, GELYY, GM, HMC, HYMTF, KIMTF, LGCLF, NSANY, PCRFY, RNSDF, SKOVF, SSDIY, TM, TSLA15 Comments

Summary

  • Li-ion battery demand is forecast to grow about 10 fold between 2018 and 2030, mostly due to the EV boom.
  • Top 5 Li-ion battery manufacturers by capacity.
  • Other large Li-ion battery manufacturers, and a discussion on risks.
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This article first appeared on Trend Investing on August 1, 20019; therefore all data is as of that date.

No matter which way you look at it, lithium ion ("Li-ion") battery demand is set to surge about 10 fold between 2018 and 2030 (see BNEF chart below). Another way to get a feel is the Benchmark Minerals megafactory data, which as of a July 5 Tweet: "Assessment published at 1,956.6GWh capacity by 2028, increase of 5.25%, now tracking 91 plants." The 91 number was 3 back in Q1 2015, showing how much megafactory demand has advanced in just 4 years.

The forecast demand surge is due mostly to the electric vehicle boom, as experts now see electric cars going from ~2.0% market share in 2018, to ~25-35% by 2030. At the midpoint (30%), that is a 15 fold increase in electric car demand to 2030, hence underpinning the 10 fold Li-ion battery demand forecast. Added to this will be consumer electronics, other non-car EVs (including e-bikes, e-3 wheelers, e-trucks, e-buses, e-ships, e-trains, & e-planes etc.), and energy storage.

In this article, I intend to focus on the top 5 largest lithium-ion battery manufacturers.

Bloomberg NEF 2019 Li-ion battery demand forecast

Source: Bloomberg NEF 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook

The chart below shows the active megafactories (red), planned by 2023 (yellow) and planned by 2028 [blue]. The biggest expansion plans look to me to be for Tesla, LG Chem, CATL, and Wanxiang Group. Next look to be BYD Co., Samsung SDI, EVE and JEVE.

Source: Courtesy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (note the 1,590GWh is now 1,956.6GWh)

Top 5 lithium-ion manufacturers by capacity (2018)

Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (published 26 January 2019)

For more details on the above 5 companies lithium-ion battery factories, expansion plans, and battery quality, etc., I refer to the expert article of Simon Moores -

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