U.S. Business Cycle Report September 2019

Axel Merk profile picture
Axel Merk


  • This continues to be a challenging economic environment to analyze, with mixed signals.
  • The U.S. economic expansion will likely continue over the next several months, and the trend in much of the data is concerning and probably needs to start improving soon if.
  • Of greatest concern are the depth and duration of yield curve inversion (10yr-3m) and the weakness in the U.S. manufacturing PMI (now below 50).

U.S. Business Cycle Report

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

This article was written by

Axel Merk profile picture
Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds. He is a recognized expert on the global economy, monetary policy and international investing. An authority on currencies, he is a pioneer in the use of strategic currency investing to seek diversification and has been named a “Currency Guru” by Morningstar. Axel Merk is a regular guest on CNBC, FoxBusiness and Bloomberg. His columns and interviews frequently appear in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and other financial media around the world. Merk is a sought after expert speaker at industry conferences, including the annual conferences of the CFA, FPA and AAII organizations in 2011, as well as at universities, government organizations and think tanks. Merk's expertise encompasses topics ranging from the global economy, gold and currencies to sustainable wealth and personal finance. Axel Merk’s Book “Sustainable Wealth” was published by Wiley in 2009 and his newsletter Merk Insights reaches a wide audience of investors, analysts and media following global macroeconomic issues and implications to investing. Mr. Merk, together with the Merk portfolio team, manages the Merk Hard, Asian and Absolute Return Currency Funds, as well as the Merk Currency Enhanced U.S. Equity Fund. He holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and a M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.

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