Seeking Alpha

Various Reliable Billionaire Dividend Stocks: For September/October

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Includes: ABBV, APLE, CC, ENB, EPD, GLAD, GNL, LTC, MDP, MMP, MO, MRD, OXY, SHLX, SJR, STAG, VET
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

Random stock lists occasionally show up. This Miscellaneous Billionaire Reliable list appeared 9/18/19.

Miscellaneous reliable long-term dividend stocks have no pedigree, but are not mongrels. They were groomed for some purpose, probably by billionaires but the details are lost.

These 97 Miscellaneous dividend stocks ranged 0.22%-12.13% in annual yield and ranged -9.03%-50.41% in annual price target upsides per brokers 9/18/19.

Top ten Miscellaneous reliable long-term dividend stocks boasted net gains from 13.05% to 45.55%.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five top-yield Miscellaneous reliable dividend dogs showed 15.36% more net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten. Little low-price Miscellaneous reliable dividend stocks led the pack.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 13.05% To 45.55% Net Gains For Ten Top Miscellaneous Reliable Dividend Dogs Into 2020

Six of these ten top Miscellaneous reliable dividend stocks by yield were among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, the yield-based forecast for these September/October dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 60% accurate.

Projections were based on estimated dividends from $1,000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to September 18, 2020 were:

Source: YCharts.com

Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) was projected to net $455.54, based on a median of target price estimates from fifteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 17% more than the market as a whole.

Altria Group Inc. (MO) was projected to net $411.67, based on the median of target estimates from sixteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 62% less than the market as a whole.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) was projected to net $322.57 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from twenty-six brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 15% under the market as a whole.

Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) was projected to net $320.50, based on a median of target price estimates from three analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 29% less than the market as a whole.

The Chemours Co. (CC) was projected to net $300.47, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from fourteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 150% more than the market as a whole.

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) was projected to net $290.45, based on the median of target price estimates from twelve analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 5% less than the market as a whole.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) was projected to net 264.39, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from twenty-seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 14% less than the market as a whole.

Meredith Corp. (MDP) was projected to net $200.03, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 24% over the market as a whole.

Shaw Communications (SJR) was projected to net $172.55, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from sixteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 27% less than the market as a whole.

STAG Industrial (STAG) netted $130.54 based on the median of estimates from twelve analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk, 8% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 28.69% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risks 3% above the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alert) Analysts Anticipated Two Miscellaneous Reliable Dividend Dogs To Lose 4.0-4.3% By September/October 2020

The probable losing trades revealed by one analyst in YCharts were:

Source: YCharts

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) projected a loss of $40.36 based on dividend and a median projected target price out of estimates from twenty-three analysts, including $10 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 29% less than the market as a whole.

LTC Properties Inc. (LTC) projected a loss of $43.19 based on the median of estimates from eleven analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks, 61% less than the market as a whole.

The average net loss in dividend and price was estimated at 4.18% on $2k invested as $1k in each of these two stocks. These loss estimates were subject to average risks 45% under the market as a whole.

Source: wagwalking.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

97 Miscellaneous Reliable Dividend Stocks Per September/October Target Gains

Source: YCharts.com

97 Miscellaneous Reliable Dividend Stocks By September/October Yield

Source: YCharts.com

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Miscellaneous Dividend Dogs By Yield

Top ten Miscellaneous Dividends uncovered 9/18/19 by yield represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors. The first, fifth, seventh, and tenth places were claimed by four energy sector representatives, Vermilion Energy Inc. [1], Shell Midstream Partners LP (SHLX) [5], Occidental Petroleum Corp. [7], and Magellan Midstream Partners LP [10].

The second and sixth places on this list went to two real estate enterprises, Global Net Lease Inc. [2] and Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE) [6].

A lone financial services representative emerged in third place by yield, Gladstone Capital Corp. (GLAD) [3]. After that, one consumer defensive representative placed fourth, Altria Group Inc. [4]

A lone consumer cyclical representative placed eighth, Meredith Corp. [8]. A single energy sector representative placed sixth, Enbridge Inc. (ENB) [6]. Finally, the lone basic materials pup claimed ninth place, The Chemours Co. [9], to complete the Miscellaneous reliable dividend top ten by yield for September/October.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten Miscellaneous Reliable Dividend Dogs Showed 13.07%-38.85 Upsides While (31) No Downsiders Emerged

Source: YCharts.com

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median target price estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 15.38% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Miscellaneous Reliable Dividend Dogs To September/October 2020

Ten top Miscellaneous reliable dividend dogs were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend / price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts.com

As noted above, top ten Kiplinger Miscellaneous reliable dividend (MRD) dogs screened 9/18/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented six of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield MRD Dogs (32) Delivering 24.62% Vs. (33) 21.34% Net Gains by All Ten Come September/October 2020

Source: YCharts.com

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Miscellaneous reliable dividend kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 15.38% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The fourth lowest priced, Vermilion Energy Inc., was projected to deliver the best net gain of 45.55%.

Source: YCharts.com

The five lowest-priced top-yield Miscellaneous reliable dividend dogs as of September 18 were: Gladstone Capital Corp.; The Chemours Co.; Apple Hospitality REIT Inc.; Vermilion Energy Inc.; Global Net Lease Inc., with prices ranging from $9.59 to $19.64.

Five higher-priced Miscellaneous reliable dividend dogs as of September 18 were: Shell Midstream Partners LP; Meredith Corp.; Altria Group Inc.; Occidental Petroleum Corp.; Magellan Midstream Partners LP, whose prices ranged from $21.51 to $66.26.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Miscellaneous Reliable Dividend stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: wagwalking.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long T, TJX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.