Jim Cramer's Mad Money In-Depth Stock Picks, 7/30/07

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed in the in-depth session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Monday July 30. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis:

Doomsday Scenario: MDC Holdings (NYSE:MDC), DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Pulte Homes (NYSE:PHM) and Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL)

Cramer created a doomsday scenario which probably will not happen, since the bank crisis in 1990 was "ten times worse" than the problems of today. However, he would avoid any companies which deal with borrowing and lending money, particularly housing: DHI, PHM and TOL. The only housing stock that isn't hopeless now is MDC, but Cramer would still not buy. He would also avoid financials amid bearish fears that loans will not be repaid and yields will shrink; "You can't own anything that even walks by a mortgage," Cramer warned. He would not touch companies which need financing for deals. However, Cramer added; "the worst-case scenario will be derailed," and the doom and gloom will not really materialize

If Ben will Budge: Centex (CTX), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Citigroup (NYSE:C)

Cramer discussed two scenarios which could reverse doomsday: overseas buyers and an interest rate cut. He is confident that if the Federal Reserve reduces rates by only one percent, housing will make a comeback (especially DHI, PHM, CTX, LEN), financials GS and C will recover and the Dow will jump to 15.

Playing it Safe: Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG), Kellogg (NYSE:K), Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Medco Health Solutions (NYSE:MHS), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Apple (OTC:APPL) and Research in Motion (RIMM)

Even if the Fed doesn't budge rates, investors can still create a safe portfolio consisting of CELG, K, SLB, MHS and KMB. He also directed viewers to his six wild bull markets: oil and oil services, agriculture, machinery, aerospace, infrastructure and minerals, and his four horse men of tech: AMZN, GOOG, APPL and RIMM.

Mad Mail: Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM), Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), ValueClick Inc. (VLCK)

Cramer urged a mailer not to sell BAM, because it is an international company, unaffected by subprime woes, and is similar to Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway; "If you sold Warren Buffet because of a housing problem, forget it!" To a mailer concerned about RAD, Cramer said, "The integration is going very well. I'm holding your hand on RAD, and begging you not to sell it." Concerning VLCK's bad quarter, he commented, "I don't have my arms around it yet. To me, the stock looks like it's going to see $18, before you see a bottom."

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