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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Yield Curve Boosts Long-Term Forecast, Consumer Still Solid

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by: New Deal Democrat
Summary

High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.

The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.

With the 10-year - three-month yield spread positive, there are now no negative long leading indicators.

The short-term forecast and nowcast are weakly positive.

The solid consumer continues to outweigh poor manufacturing.

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.

A Note on Methodology

Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.

Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked.

A few items (e.g., Financial Conditions indexes, regional Fed indexes, stock prices, the yield curve) have their own metrics based on long-term studies of their behavior.

Where data is seasonally adjusted, generally it's scored positively if it's within the top 1/3 of that range, negative in the bottom 1/3, and neutral in between. Where it's not seasonally adjusted, and there are seasonal issues, waiting for the YoY change to change sign will lag the turning point. Thus I make use of a convention: Data is scored neutral if it's less than 1/2 as positive/negative as at its 12-month extreme.

With long leading indicators, which by definition turn at least 12 months before a turning point in the economy as a whole, there's an additional rule: Data is automatically negative if, during an expansion, it has not made a new peak in the past year, with the sole exception that it's scored neutral if it's moving in the right direction and is close to making a new high.

Recap of monthly reports

September reports included a decline in producer prices, with consumer prices unchanged. Preliminary consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan improved.

July wholesale sales were unchanged, while inventories increased, meaning the inventory to sales ratio rose.

Long leading indicators

Interest rates and credit spreads

Rates

  • BAA corporate bond index 3.94%, up +.11% w/w (1-year range: 3.73-5.29)
  • 10-year Treasury bonds 1.73%, up +.21% w/w (1.47-3.24)
  • Credit spread 2.21%, down -0.10% w/w (1.56-2.48)

Yield curve

  • 10 year minus 2 year: +0.14%, up +0.02% w/w (-0.01-1.30)
  • 10 year minus 3 month: +0.04%, up +0.23% w/w (-0.44 - +1.00)

30-Year conventional mortgage rate (from Mortgage News Daily)

  • 3.79%, up +0.17% w/w (3.46-5.05)

BAA Corporate bonds and Treasury bonds turned positive six weeks ago. In particular, that corporate bonds recently fell to yet another new expansion low is extremely bullish for the next year or more. The spread between corporate bonds and Treasuries is negative. The 2- vs. 20-year yield curve is neutral. The 10-year minus three-month spread improved from negative to neutral. Mortgage rates are still not too far from their post-Brexit low, so they remain positive.

Housing

Mortgage applications (from the Mortgage Bankers Association)

  • Purchase apps -1% w/w to 262 (214-281) (SA)
  • Purchase apps 4 wk avg. up +1 to 265 (SA)
  • Purchase apps YoY +10% (NSA)
  • Purchase apps YoY 4 wk avg. +11% (NSA)
  • Refi apps +10% w/w (SA)

*(SA) = seasonally adjusted, (NSA) = not seasonally adjusted

Real Estate Loans (from the FRB)

  • Down -0.1% w/w
  • Up +3.4% YoY (2.7-6.5)

Purchase applications generally declined from expansion highs through neutral to negative from the beginning of summer to the end of 2018. With lower rates this year, their rating has climbed back to positive. Meanwhile, lower rates once again caused a spike upward in refi, returning it to neutral.

With the re-benchmarking of the last year, the growth rate of real estate loans turned from neutral to positive. For two weeks it fell back below +3.25%, and so went back from positive to neutral, then rebounded to positive and has generally stayed there since. For two weeks declined back to negative, but returned to positive last week.

Money supply

M1

  • +0.6% w/w
  • +1.7% m/m
  • +4.6% YoY Real M1 (-0.7 to 4.6) (New one year high)

M2

  • +0.3% w/w
  • +1.3% m/m
  • +4.5% YoY Real M2 (0.9-4.5) (New one year high)

Since 2010, both real M1 and real M2 were resolutely positive. Both decelerated substantially in 2017. Real M2 growth fell below 2.5% almost all last year and has with few exceptions stayed below that benchmark until recently. It's back above 3.0% and so is positive. Real M1 briefly turned negative early this year. Both real M1 and M2 then improved all the way to positive for one month, then weakened again. But for the last two months, real M1 has been positive.

Corporate profits (estimated and actual S&P 500 earnings from I/B/E/S via Factset.com)

  • Q2 2019 actual earnings, 41.47 up +6.9% q/q, down -3.3% from Q3 2018 peak
  • Q3 2019 estimated earnings, down -0.25 to 40.96, down -1.2% q/q, down -4.5% from Q4 2018 peak

I initiated coverage of this metric earlier this year on an experimental basis. FactSet estimates earnings, which are replaced by actual earnings as they are reported, and are updated weekly. Based on the preliminary results, I have expanded the "neutral" band to +/-3% as well as averaging the previous two quarters together, until at least 100 companies have actually reported.

Because Q3 projected earnings have risen by slightly more than half of the decline from the Q3 2018 peak, this rating remains positive.

Credit conditions (from the Chicago Fed)

  • Financial Conditions Index up +.01 (less loose) to -0.72
  • Adjusted Index (removing background economic conditions) up +.04 (less loose) to -0.64
  • Leverage subindex up +.01 (less loose) at -0.26

The Chicago Fed's Adjusted Index's real breakeven point is roughly -0.25. In the leverage index, a negative number is good, a positive poor. The historical breakeven point has been -0.5 for the unadjusted Index. All three metrics presently show looseness and so are positives for the economy. Late last year, the leverage subindex turned up to near neutral, then turned more positive earlier this year, but is now back to its least loose reading from one year ago. In the past, an inverted yield curve has led to a contraction in lending, so it will be important to see if this metric, which has been relentlessly positive, rolls over.

Short leading indicators

Trade weighted US Dollar

  • Up +0.64 to 131.34 w/w, +4.3% YoY (last week) (broad) (115.19-131.58)
  • Down -0.48 to 98.31 w/w, +3.3% YoY (major currencies) (new one year high intraweek) was

The US dollar briefly spiked higher after the US presidential election. Both measures had been positive last summer, but by last autumn, the broad measure turned neutral, followed more recently by the measure against major currencies. As of roughly nine months ago, both were negative. Within the past two months, both of improved to neutral on a YoY basis.

Commodity prices

Bloomberg Commodity Index

  • Up +0.90 to 78.83 (76.07-91.94)
  • Down -8.3% YoY

Bloomberg Industrial metals ETF (from Bloomberg)

  • 117.25, up +1.83 w/w, down -2.2% YoY (107.87-123.18)

Commodity prices surged higher after the 2016 presidential election. Both industrial metals and the broader commodities indexes declined to very negative in the past year. Industrial metals improved enough to be scored neutral recently.

Stock prices S&P 500 (from CNBC)

  • Up +0.6% to 2970.27

At the end of 2018, stock's rating became negative. This year, they have made repeated new three-month and several all-time highs, most recently about 2.5 months ago, and thus their rating is positive. If they fail to make a new high in the next two weeks, they will go back to neutral.

Regional Fed New Orders Indexes

(*indicates report this week) (no reports this week)

The regional average is more volatile than the ISM manufacturing index, but usually correctly forecasts its month-over-month direction. It was "very" positive for most of last year. Later last year it gradually cooled to weakly positive. This year it has been waxing and waning between positive and flat. In July and earlier in August it was flat but has since rebounded to positive.

Employment metrics

Initial jobless claims

  • 210,000, down -9,000
  • Four-week average 213,750, up +1,250

Initial claims had generally been very positive in 2017 and 2018. In November they briefly spiked and did so again at the end of January, the worst of which was probably connected to the government shutdown. They made new 49-year lows in the three weeks just before Easter. The overall trend is still weakly positive, despite some challenging YoY comparisons.

Temporary staffing index (from the American Staffing Association)

  • Unchanged at 95 w/w
  • Down -5.3% YoY

This index was positive with a few exceptions all during 2017. It was negative for over a month at the beginning of 2018 but returned to a positive for most of the rest of the year. In the last five months, it has gradually declined, turning neutral in January and then negative since early February. It had been improving a little, but since the beginning of the third quarter has progressively had its worst YoY readings since 2016, including this week.

Tax Withholding (from the Department of the Treasury)

  • $187.7 B for the last 20 reporting days vs. $181.6 B one year ago, up +$6.1 B or +3.4%

This was generally negative last year once the effects of the tax cuts started in February 2018. Straight YoY comparisons have become valid again since this February, and with the exception of one week, have been positive.

Oil prices and usage (from the E.I.A.)

  • Oil up +$1.81 to $54.68 w/w, down -21.0% YoY
  • Gas prices unchanged at $2.64 w/w, down -$0.26 YoY
  • Usage four-week average up +0.5% YoY

After bottoming in 2016, generally, prices went sideways with a slight increasing trend in 2017 and 2018. While at the end of last year, prices plummeted, and after rising earlier this year, have been declining recently to near a new 52 week lows last week. Gas prices made their seasonal high for this year four months ago. Usage was positive YoY during most of 2016 but has oscillated between negative and positive for the last several months. For the last three weeks, it turned negative before turning positive again this week.

Bank lending rates

Both TED and LIBOR rose in 2016 to the point where both were usually negatives, with lots of fluctuation. Of importance is that TED was above 0.50 before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. The TED spread was generally increasingly positive in 2017, while LIBOR was increasingly negative. After being whipsawed between being positive or negative last year, this year it has remained positive.

Coincident indicators

Consumer spending

  • Johnson Redbook up +5.7% YoY
  • Retail Economist down -1.1% w/w, up +1.5% YoY

Both the Retail Economist and Johnson Redbook Indexes were positive all during 2018. The Retail Economist measure decelerated earlier this year, turning neutral, but improved enough to score positive in April and May. It has been varying between neutral and weakly positive. It is neutral again this week. Johnson Redbook fell sharply at the beginning of this year before improving to positive beginning in spring.

Transport

Railroads (from the AAR)

  • Carloads down -8.5% YoY
  • Intermodal units down -5.8% YoY
  • Total loads down -7.1% YoY

Shipping transport

In 2018 rail, after some weakness in January and February, it remained positive until autumn, when It weakened precipitously, probably due to tariffs. It rebounded strongly in January, but since then, it has turned almost uniformly negative, suggesting that the trade war with China is having a major impact. In the last month, the YoY comparisons have gotten even worse. By contrast, truck traffic is positive YoY - the trend there is neutral to slightly positive.

Harpex made multi-year lows in early 2017 and after oscillating improved to new multi-year highs earlier in 2018, but earlier this year turned negative. In the past three months, it rebounded enough to be neutral and now is positive. BDI traced a similar trajectory, and made three-year highs near the end of 2017, and again at mid-year 2018, before declining all the way back to negative. In the past three months, it made repeated three-year highs, before backing off in the past two weeks.

I'm wary of reading too much into price indexes like this since they are heavily influenced by supply (as in, a huge overbuilding of ships in the last decade) as well as demand.

Steel production (from the American Iron and Steel Institute)

  • Down -1.2% w/w
  • Down -3.9% YoY

Steel production was generally positive in 2017. It turned negative in January and early February of 2018, but with the exception of three weeks recently has been positive since then. Recently the YoY comparison abruptly declined to less than 1/2 of its recent range over 10% YoY, and was neutral, and had been varying between neutral and positive since. In the summer, it varied between neutral and negative, but for the past month has been exclusively negative.

Summary And Conclusion

Among the long leading indicators, corporate bonds, Treasuries, purchase mortgage applications, mortgage rates, corporate profits, the Chicago Fed Adjusted Financial Conditions Index and Leverage subindex, real M1 and real M2, and real estate loans, are positives. Mortgage refinancing and the yield curve are neutral (the first time both measures of the curve have not been negative in over six months).

Among the short leading indicators, stock prices, the Chicago National Conditions Index, regional Fed new orders, gas and oil prices, and initial claims are positive. The US dollar, gas usage, and industrial commodities are neutral. The spread between corporate and Treasury bonds, total commodities, and temporary staffing are negative.

Among the coincident indicators, one measure of consumer spending, along with tax withholding, Harpex, BDI, and the TED spread is positive. One measure of consumer spending is neutral. Steel, rail and LIBOR are negative.

There are now NO negative long leading indicators (although corporate profits are close). The recently volatile short-term forecast is only weakly positive, and monthly measures of short leading indicators are negative primarily due to a heavier weighting of manufacturing measures. Coincident indicators also are weakly positive. Basically, the indication is that the manufacturing side of the economy is in recession, but remains overbalanced by a solid consumer side.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.