Admit it, there are probably some of you out there who suffered from ROS at some point this year. That's OK, with yield curves inverting, trade wars heating up, data on manufacturing softening and the ultimate Federal Reserve (Fed) change in monetary policy resulting in three rate cuts all occurring simultaneously, it was hard not to succumb to the ROS forces. The good news is that it looks like the worst of ROS may have passed. Let's take a look...
Bottom line: While I fully acknowledge a slower-growth backdrop and that headwinds still exist (trade uncertainty, soft global growth), my base case is still no outright recession, where Treasury (UST) rates and U.S. corporate spreads remain range-bound for now.
Unless otherwise stated, all data sourced is Bloomberg, as of November 4, 2019.
Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy
As part of WisdomTree's Investment Strategy group, Kevin serves as Head of Fixed Income Strategy. In this role, he contributes to the asset allocation team, writes fixed income-related content and travels with the sales team, conducting client-facing meetings and providing expertise on WisdomTree's existing and future bond ETFs. In addition, Kevin works closely with the fixed income team. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Kevin spent 30 years at Morgan Stanley, where he was most recently a Managing Director. He was responsible for tactical and strategic recommendations and created asset allocation models for fixed income securities. He was a contributor to the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee, primary author of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's monthly and weekly fixed income publications, and collaborated with the firm's Research and Consulting Group Divisions to build ETF and fund manager asset allocation models. Kevin has an MBA from Pace University's Lubin Graduate School of Business, and a B.S in Finance from Fairfield University.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
This article was written by