No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - December 12, 2019

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About: S&P 500 Index (SP500)
by: Georg Vrba
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Georg Vrba
Long/short equity, value, minimum volatility, momentum
Summary

Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions.

Our weekly Business Cycle Index would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions.

The BCI at 262.9 is above last week's level and is far from signaling a recession.

The BCI at 262.9 is above last week's 262.4, and near the previous high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 99.8. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 12.4 is up