Asset Class Scoreboard - The Decade (2010-2019)

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Jeff Malec
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Summary

  • Closing out the decade with one final look back on some of the top-performing markets, asset classes, and alternative investment funds over that time.
  • It was mostly a two-horse race for the past 10 years between US stocks and US real estate - with both taking on around 200% since January 2010.
  • A whole lot of mediocrity in international equities, bonds, and alternatives (hedge funds and managed futures), with each solidly in the black - but nowhere near the astronomical heights of the S&P 500.

We're closing out the decade with one final look back on some of the top-performing markets, asset classes, and alternative investment funds over that time.

Last up, the broad asset classes we track in our monthly Asset Class Scoreboard: US Stocks, World Stocks, Hedge Funds, Real Estate, Bonds, Commodities and Managed Futures - where it was mostly a two-horse race for the past 10 years between US Stocks and US real estate - with both taking on around 200% since January 2010. Wow, thanks Amazon (AMZN) (up about 1,200% for the decade). On the flip side was commodities, which had some notable decade-long losers (see "Commodity Performance Over the Decade (2009-2019)"), plus a problem with a negative roll yield to end up roughly cut in half over the decade.

After that, a whole lot of mediocrity in international equities, bonds, and alternatives (hedge funds and managed futures), with each solidly in the black - but nowhere near the astronomical heights of the S&P 500. Bonds have to be the biggest surprise here, with the calls for rising interest rates and an end to the ultra-low rate environment persisting for most of the past 10 years - and bond markets ignoring all of it by still rallying to the point where we now have trillions in negative-yielding debt! Can that continue for the next 10 years? This severe underperformance by hedge funds will likely get people talking about the apples/oranges comparison of them lagging equity markets by so much (pro tip: investors don't care, that's not why they have hedge funds) - while the massive vacuuming out of volatility across the globe can perhaps nowhere be better seen than in long volatility-focused manager futures and their decade-long water-treading amidst record low vol.

This was surely not the decade most professionals saw as a possibility sitting there on NYE of 2009 with the financial crisis fresh in their minds. The Black Swan nobody saw coming, it turns out - was the lack of any black swans. The old White Moose, as we've taken to calling it.

Asset class performance over the decade:

Disclaimer

The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

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Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

This article was written by

Jeff Malec profile picture
704 Followers
Jeff Malec is the CEO and founding partner of Attain Capital Management (www.AttainCapital.com) - a commodity futures brokerage and research firm specializing in managed futures investments through individually managed accounts and privately offered funds. Please read the important disclaimer regarding managed futures below: Disclaimer: Composite performance records are hypothetical in nature, and the trading advisors have not traded together in the manner shown in the composite. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any multi-advisor managed account or pool will or is likely to achieve a composite performance record similar to that shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between a hypothetical composite performance record and the actual record subsequently achieved. One of the limitations of a hypothetical composite performance record is that decisions relating to the selection of trading advisors and the allocation of assets among those trading advisors were made with the benefit of hindsight based upon the historical rates of return of the selected trading advisors. Therefore, composite performance records invariably show positive rates of return. Another inherent limitation on these results is that the allocation decisions reflected in the performance record were not made under actual market conditions and, therefore, cannot completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. Furthermore, the composite performance record may be distorted because the allocation of assets changes from time to time and these adjustments are not reflected in the composite. Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client's commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
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