Reduce U.S. And IT Exposure To Outperform This Decade

About: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), Includes: EWJ, IEUR, INDA, VEA, VTI, VWO
by: Tariq Dennison
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Tariq Dennison
Registered investment advisor, long-term horizon, foreign companies, ETF investing

Compared with 2010, 2020 starts the decade with flatter yield curves, richer US equity valuations, and dominant momentum of US tech giants.

The pattern of top performers in recent decades has been: Japan in the 1980s, US telecom in the 1990s, emerging markets/commodities in the 2000s, and smartphones in the 2010s.

This article breaks down expected return estimates for a globally diversified stock benchmark across its five top geographies and compares this against a sector view.

As in past decades, driving factors of returns in the 2020s are likely to originate with a major sector or theme, and the highest returning one is likely relatively out of favor today.

The late and legendary Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, famously described how an investor can estimate a "reasonable expectation" of future rates of return for stocks by looking at the sources of return: dividend