AGNC Investment's Q4 2019 Income Statement And Earnings Projection - Part 1 (Includes Current Recommendation)

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About: AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), Includes: AI, AIC, AIW, ANH, ARR, CHMI, CHMI.PA, GPMT, IVR, MITT, MORL, MORT, NLY, NRZ, NYMT, NYMTN, ORC, REM, TWO
by: Scott Kennedy
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Scott Kennedy
Value, mREITs, BDCs, dividend investing
Summary

This series projects AGNC’s income statement for the fourth quarter of 2019. These projections help readers understand how most of the fixed-rate agency mREIT sector performed (valuable insight).

First, I am projecting AGNC will report a minor increase in interest income for the fourth quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter.

This is due to relatively unchanged cash interest income mainly being generated by AGNC’s on-balance sheet MBS portfolio and a minor decrease in the company’s recent elevated premium amortization expense.

Second, I am projecting AGNC will report a minor decrease in interest expense for the fourth quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter.

Third, I am projecting AGNC will report a minor-modest gain on the sale of investment securities and record a minor-modest decrease in net spread and dollar roll income per share.

Author’s Note: This three-part article is a very detailed analysis of AGNC Investment Corp.’s (AGNC) income statement (technically speaking, the company’s “consolidated statement of comprehensive income”). I continue to perform this type