Seeking Alpha

10 Must-Have REITs To Own During The Next Decade

|
Includes: CONE, DLR, DOC, FRT, HTA, LTC, SKT, SPG, UE, VTR
by: Brad Thomas
Brad Thomas
Dividend growth investing, REITs, newsletter provider, value
Summary

We believe that technology will continue to play a large role in REIT returns over the next decade.

In addition to three technology sectors, we also consider manufactured housing and healthcare to be important.

Quality and valuation are the most important pillars for success.

Have I mentioned lately that I love looking over the comments you readers leave on my published articles?

I know I have, but let me say so again anyway: I love looking over the comments you readers leave on my published articles.

Truly. My subscribers and even my more random readers can make my day with these interactions.

I’m not even talking about the comments containing compliments. (How’s that for alliteration?) At least, I’m not just talking about them. They are, admittedly, very welcome.

But the comments that offer food for thought or suggestions for future articles are equally valuable, if not more so. That was certainly true of what kalu0003 posted on a piece I published on Monday, Jan. 6.

At the bottom of “The Top 10 Best REIT Performers Over the Last Decade,” said individual wrote:

Brad – given what you know of the REIT space – what would you suggest as the next 10 years’ REITs worth putting money (into) now? In other words, what (are) the best REITs for the next decade in your view? Thanks.

Since that sounded like an excellent question to me, I promptly wrote back that I’d be answering it shortly. So, thank you for the suggestion, kalu0003.

Here’s your proper reply…

Photo Source

In Investing, “Waiting” Isn’t a Four-Letter Word

In the original article, I focused on the "worthwhileness" of waiting: How time isn’t always our enemy. When it comes to investing, it’s actually very much on our side.

“In the case of the markets, waiting pays off both figuratively and very, very literally – at least when it comes to well-placed, well-researched investments.

“It can take a $10,000 portfolio and turn it into $50,000, $100,000, or even $500,000. It really depends on the power of time.”

Incidentally, think about what it can do with a $20,000 portfolio, a $50,000 portfolio, or a $100,000 portfolio!

“To prove this, just look at the U.S. market’s rise over the last 20 years.

“The Dow went from 11,501.85 on Jan. 3, 2000, to 28,538.44 on Dec. 31, 2019.

“The Nasdaq went from 4,186.19 to 8,972.60.

“The S&P went from 1,469.25 to 3,230.78.

“Those are significant differences! Moreover, those are significant differences during a 20-year period that involved one significant and one enormous crash: The dot.com debacle in 2000 and the housing market bubble bursting in 2007. Plus the recessions that followed.”

The same applies to a decade’s worth of investment time. No doubt, this present decade’s, to be specific.

And while I plan to thoroughly enjoy the next 10 years as much as I possibly can – learning and growing from them, and enjoying the many moments while they’re happening – I also look forward to having learned and grown after they’re all said and done.

What exactly will I learn and how much will I grow? That’s still to be discovered, of course. But I will make one prediction right here and now…

I fully expect to be writing an article in late 2029 or early 2030 about how the truism that “this time around wasn’t different” was once again proven correct.

Photo Source

Strong Stocks, Strong Finish

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard someone argue “This time it’s different!” about particular stocks or larger market trends.

They’ve said it both to justify getting into very risky positions and staying out of very worthwhile ones. But, in either case, let me assure you that there's nothing new under the sun.

As such, very risky positions are never going to be worth it. And very worthwhile ones always are.

It might just take time to prove so.

Since resisting risky opportunities that promise riches galore isn’t always easy for us mere mortals to do though. I know we won’t be in the midst of this amazing run-up we’re currently experiencing forever.

There will be blips. There will be dips. There will even be flat-out debacles – as with the dot.com ridiculousness we saw so many years ago – and burst bubbles, as with the housing crash some of us are still a little (or a lot) traumatized by.

So, you’d better believe there will be recessions in our future. (Though we predict any near-term ones will be more “garden-style variety.”)

Maybe they’ll happen sometime soon. Perhaps, they’ll happen three or five or eight years down the road. But they are going to happen based on government greed or investor foolishness. Because both factors never change.

They’re only handled differently for different stretches of time.

The way to prepare for any and all of that is to select sure-thing stocks – or at least, stocks that have the best chance of being sure things. After careful research and consideration, I believe the following 10 REITs fit that bill.

They’re built on solid concepts by strong management that keeps them on a long-term profitable track. And because of that, time is on their side.

Just wait and see…

Photo Source

10 Must-Have REITs to Own Over the Next Decade

Before getting started, let me explain the rationale for our stock selection strategy.

As the above picture illustrates, we believe that technology will continue to play a large role in REIT returns over the next decade. When we refer to the “trifecta” blueprint, we often cite three “technology” sectors that should generate robust growth:

  1. Cell towers
  2. Data centers

We also consider other growth sectors like manufactured housing and healthcare to be important. Both cater to the aging demographics that will be driving earnings and dividends over the next decade.

Finally, we consider quality and valuation to be the most important pillars for success. We utilize a broad range of fundamental tools to help investors select the best REITs.

For example, we developed a quality scoring platform called R.I.N.O., which stands for REIT Indicator Numerically Optimized.

In addition, we have numerous valuation tools at our disposal that help us select REITs that are trading at the widest margin of safety.

While we’d like to include REITs like Realty Income (O), Prologis (PLD), and Crown Castle (CCI), to name a few, we purposely selected these 10 REITs because we believe they provide attractively priced securities.

Thus, for investors looking to build a REIT portfolio from scratch, these 10 are good candidates. Overall, we suggest building on them – or whatever combination you choose – so that there’s 5% exposure for each REIT over time.

In other words, we believe that 20 REITs is a reasonable number for a REIT portfolio.

Source: iREIT

#1 – Urban Edge Properties

Photo Source

Urban Edge (UE) is a shopping center REIT we recently upgraded to a Strong Buy. Although it doesn’t have a well-established track record yet – having only spun off Vornado Realty Trust (VNA) in 2015 – we’re attracted to its strong business model.

It includes 73 shopping centers concentrated in large metropolitan areas in some of the most densely populated markets in the country (62 of the properties are located in the DC to Boston corridor).

While Kimco Realty (KIM) has been long-time pick for us (returning 49% in 2019), we believe Urban Edge is the better long-term choice, given its attractive valuation. It currently trades on both the:

  • Most attractive historical relative NAV valuation
  • Widest implied cap rate spread in the shopping center sector.

The dividend yield is 4.67%, and we believe there’s an enhanced opportunity to generate annualized returns of 25% or higher.

Urban Edge trades at $18.85 per share with a price to funds from operations (P/FFO) multiple of 16.1x. Since listing, Urban Edge has returned -0.60 annually.

In short, we see great potential to its high barrier-to-entry portfolio that includes many high-volume, value, and necessity retailers, such as Home Depot (NYSE:HD), TJX (NYSE:TJX), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), and Walmart (NYSE:WMT).

Price: $18.85

P/FFO: 16.1x

Dividend yield: 4.67%

Payout ratio: 75%

S&P: N/A

2019 total return: 49%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 2%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 7%

Source: FAST Graphs

#2 – Physicians Realty Trust

Photo Source

Physicians Realty (DOC) is a medical office REIT that’s returned 11.3% annually since listing shares in 2013.

We like it because of its focus on high-quality medical office buildings (MOBs). The portfolio is spread across 31 states, with no MSA representing more than 8% of leasable square footage or tenant responsible for more than 6% of annual base rent.

DOC’s MOB-specific portfolio achieved same-store (SS) growth at the top end of management’s 2%-3% target range throughout 2019. Plus, it exceeds its closest peers in occupancy and remaining lease term. Occupancy is at 96% (at Q3-19), and weighted average lease term is 7.3 years.

Momentum toward off-campus care is accelerating, with more procedures removed from the CMS “Inpatient Only List” each year. We believe that, over the next decade, DOC is well positioned to benefit.

Shares have returned 23.9% in 2019. And we see it as attractively priced today based on its 18.7x P/FFO and dividend yield of 4.9%.

Price: $18.80

P/FFO: 18.7x

Dividend yield: 4.90%

Payout Ratio: 92%

S&P: BBB-

2019 total return:23.9%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 9%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 2%

Source: FAST Graphs

#3 – LTC Properties Inc.

Photo Source

LTC Properties (LTC) is a healthcare REIT comprised of approximately 50% seniors housing and 50% skilled nursing properties. Although smaller than some of its competitors, LTC maintains a more tactical approach of provided sale/leaseback and build-to-suit funding for developers and operators.

Its portfolio includes around 200 investments in 28 states with 30 operating partners.

We’re especially attracted to its highly defensive balance sheet. The company has just 27% debt-to-enterprise value and debt-to-annualized adjusted EBITDA is 4.4x.

By staying disciplined through the years, LTC has been able to maintain and grow its dividend while driving shareholder returns. It has returned 11.6% annualized since listing and 9.3% annualized over the last 10 years.

LTC has done a good job of positioning itself. It’s also excelled at identifying dispositions and removing non-strategic assets and diversifying partner concentration. The company has total liquidity of just more than $740 million, with no significant long-term debt maturities during the next five years.

Shares are trading at $45.16 with a dividend yield of 5.05% and a P/FFO multiple of 15.1x.

Price: $45.16

P/FFO: 15.1

Dividend yield: 5.05%

Payout ratio: 76%

S&P: N/A

2019 total return: 12.9%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 0%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 5%

Source: FAST Graphs

#4 – Tanger Factory Outlet Center

Photo Source

Tanger Factory Outlet (SKT) is referred to as a “battleground” pick for two reasons. For one, there’s the enormous sensitivity to its dividend yield, which is now 8.9%. And then, there’s the substantial short interest involved: 57% as of Dec. 31.

We’ve covered this name extensively on Seeking Alpha, the latest of which had over 136,000 web views. That’s a record, so thank you for reading.

Withstanding the fundamentals, Tanger has drastically underperformed. It’s down 20.1% in 2019 with a mere 3.2% annualized return over the last 10 years.

Of course, though, we’re value investors here, so fundamentals drive our decisions. Thus, we believe the next decade could be more favorable.

Up until the last recession and commencing January 2000, Tanger returned an average of 21% annually. And from 2009 through 2016, the pure-play outlet REIT returned an average of 18% per year.

It’s really the last few years where Tanger has completely bombed, returning an average -18% annually from July 2016.

Even so, its fundamentals just aren’t that bad. The company had an occupancy of 95.9% in Q3-19 – a figure that hasn’t dropped below 95% in more than 25 years.

Also, in Q3, Tanger matched its all-time-high average sales per square foot of $395. That was the same as in 2016. And although earnings, or FFO, has slipped modestly since that year, the bulk of the decline has been due to dispositions.

(FFO per share was $2.23 in 2015 and is targeted at $2.25 for year-end 2019.)

Meanwhile, the balance sheet is in great shape (rated BBB by S&P), with approximately 94% of the square footage unencumbered by mortgages. The unsecured line of credit has 99% unused capacity, or nearly $600 million. And Tanger generates around $100 million of free cash flow after dividends.

The company has a considerable buffer (or margin of safety) to protect the dividend and 26-year track record of increasing it.

We are, of course, underweight malls. And we would recommend minimizing exposure to Tanger. Yet, we still believe it will generate outsized returns over the next decade – comparable to what was witnessed in the decade preceding the great recession.

Shares are trading at $15.95 with a P/FFO multiple of 7.1x.

Note: We recently published an article on our Marketplace service (The Tanger Conundrum: Why Shares Spiked Last Week), in which we explained our rationale for SKT’s likely removal from the S&P Dividend Index (SDY).

Price: $15.95

P/FFO: 7.1x

Dividend yield: 8.9%

Payout ratio: 63% (based on FFO)

S&P: BBB

2019 total return: -20.1%

2020 FFO per share forecast: -4%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 1%

Source: FAST Graphs

#5 – CyrusOne Inc.

CyrusOne (CONE) is a data center REIT that’s returned 20.5% annualized since listing shares in 2013. We’ve often referred to it and Digital Realty (DLR) as “pair trades” since we own both and believe they’re worthy of a long-term investment plane.

We included CONE in our decade-long list, believing it should generate above-average growth over the next few years. CONE is forecasted to grow FFO per share by 10% in 2020 and 2021 according to analyst consensus.

(DLR, meanwhile, is forecasted to grow by 2% in 2020 and 7% in 2021.)

Since going public, CONE has done an excellent job improving its cost of capital. It’s done that by achieving investment-grade status from S&P – with a BBB- issue-level rating – and Fitch, which recently initiated the same conclusion.

CONE is managing the balance sheet with leverage in the mid-5x range. And it ended the latest quarter at 5.4x net debt to annualized EBITDA. The company has no near-term maturities but nearly $1.3 billion in available liquidity.

CONE also has generated steady growth by investing in Europe, where it remains focused on developing strong enterprise in internet exchange point (IX) businesses. It’s developing more than 50 megawatts across all key European markets combined.

Once these projects are completed, it will have nearly 150 megawatts of capacity there, representing nearly 20% of its footprint. The company said it hopes to be generating around 25% of its revenue from Europe in three years.

After generating impressive returns in 2019 of 27.4%, shares have pulled back to a favorable margin of safety. Shares are now priced at $66.99 with a P/FFO multiple of 18.7.

The current dividend yield is now 2.99% and well covered, with a payout ratio of 54%). We maintain a Strong Buy.

Price: $66.99

P/FFO: 18.7x

Dividend yield: 2.99%

Payout ratio: 54%

S&P: BB- (unsecured)

2019 total return: 27.4%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 10%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 10%

Source: FAST Graphs

#6 – Healthcare Trust of America Inc.

Photo Source

Like DOC, Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) is another healthcare REIT focused exclusively on medical office buildings. Given the highly defensive nature of MOBs, we see owning both as providing enhanced predictability, given the consistent income generated from physician-focused properties.

HTA has the size advantage though, having invested more than $7 billion over the last decade. It’s demonstrated a track record for mergers and acquisitions (M&A), as illustrated by the blockbuster $2.75 billion Duke Realty (DRE) MOB portfolio that closed in 2017.

HTA also has a cost of capital advantage over its direct peers. Shares are trading at an implied cap rate in the low 5s, with debt in the low 3% range. Recent acquisitions are yielding more than 6% and 8% for development deals. So, HTA is able to generate accretive deal flow that allows it to generate predictable earnings growth in 2020 and beyond.

Analysts forecast HTA to grow FFO per share by 4% in 2020 and 2021.

HTA shares returned 24.6% in 2019, and they’ve returned around 9.4% annually since listing on the NYSE. We have a firm Buy rating on the shares today, recognizing their potential annual total return target as being around 10%.

Shares are now priced at $30.23 with a dividend yield of 4.17%. We also believe that HTA isn’t done with M&A. It has built an enviable footprint that will allow it to generate economies of scale over the next decade.

Price: $30.23

P/FFO: 18.4x

Dividend yield: 4.90%

Payout ratio: 76%

S&P: BBB

2019 total return: 24.6%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 4%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 4%

Source: FAST Graphs

#7 – Ventas Inc.

Photo Source

Ventas (VTR) is a dominant healthcare REIT that’s seen shares pull back by more than 21% since Q3 19 earnings. Specifically, the Chicago-based REIT’s latest earnings report saw its SHOP (senior housing operating properties) segment decline by 5% based on SS NOI (net operating income).

SHOPs – specifically the U.S. segment that represents 25% of VTR’s revenue – was definitely the weak link in the chain and the primary reason that Ventas’ growth profile has slowed a tad.

Ventas did report positive SS NOI growth overall in Q3 19, courtesy of strong results in triple-net lease and medical offices. However, mid-line guidance for 2019 declined to -6% FFO growth and is expected to be flat for 2020.

Ventas narrowed its full-year FFO per share to a new range of $3.81 to $3.85.

Yet, here are the two reasons we remain bullish:

  • Ventas has a tremendous cost of capital advantage, with leverage of 5.9x (6.2 industry average), interest coverage of 4.3x (vs. a 3.1 industry average), and very strong credit ratings (BBB+ from S&P). Its balance sheet is tied for the best in the industry. That’s why VTR was recently able to sell 11-year bonds at 3% and refinance its already low-cost 4.25% debt.
  • Ventas has a strong scale advantage in which it can use its low-cost advantage to drive shareholder returns. Over the last decade, VTR has generated annual returns of 8.1%. Since listing, its shares have returned around 18.7% annually. We believe VTR is in much better shape today than it was a decade ago. That’s because it has spun out its skilled nursing assets to focus on more defensive sectors like MOB and life science.

Its short-term growth forecast isn’t as favorable as it could be, admittedly. Analysts forecast FFO per share to grow by -3% in 2020 and 3% in 2021.

However, we believe that, over the next decade, the company will be able to normalize the earnings profile to generate growth of 5% per year. Thus, we’re maintaining a Buy with shares now trading at $56.97 and a dividend yield of 5.56%.

Price: $56.97

P/FFO: 14.9x

Dividend yield: 5.56%

Payout ratio: 83% (based on FFO)

S&P: BBB+

2019 total return: 4%

2020 FFO per share forecast: -3%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 3%

Source: FAST Graphs

#8 – Simon Property Group Inc.

Photo Source

Simon (SPG) is another “battleground” pick we’re holding for the long term. As some of you may know, we’ve become increasingly bearish in the mall sector. Recently, we downgraded a number of companies due to the fear of continued department store closures.

Our primary angst about mall REITs has to do with capital management and the fact that many of them are becoming stretched to pay out their dividends and deploy capex dollars into vacated properties.

The reason we believe Simon is a long-term winner, however, is because of its incredible scale advantage. As it states in its Q3-19 fact sheet, it “owns or has an interest in 233 retail real estate properties, including malls, premium outlets, and The Mills, comprising 191 million square feet in North America, Europe, and Asia.”

In addition, Simon’s best-in-class tenant portfolio generates annual retail sales of more than $60 billion. So, while we believe there will be continued store closures in 2020 and beyond, Simon has adequate diversification that helps mitigate risks.

Also, its balance sheet is rock solid. That much is evidenced by its $7 billion of liquidity and more than $1.5 billion of free cash flow after dividends are paid.

The company has a $1.8 billion redevelopment backlog – on which it expects to earn 8% cash returns on investment and another $5 billion in shadow backlog projects that should generate returns of 7%-8%.

We believe that it’s “highly likely” that Simon will complete an M&A deal over the next decade. The most obvious name to take over would be Macerich (MAC).

With that said, we’ve also suggested that Washington Prime (WPG) could spin off another REIT to further consolidate players in the sector. For example, it could absorb CBL & Associates (CBL) and Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PEI).

But, regardless, Simon is an absolute “best in breed” mall REIT and a worthy candidate for this Top 10 list.

Shares now trade at $144.79 with a P/FFO multiple of 12x. The dividend yield is 5.73%. And analysts forecast FFO per share growth of 5% in 2020 and 4% in 2021.

We maintain a Strong Buy.

Price: $144.79

P/FFO: 12x

Dividend Yield: 5.73%

Payout Ratio: 69% (based on FFO)

S&P: A

2019 total return: -6.4%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 5%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 4%

Source: FAST Graphs

#9 – Digital Realty Trust Inc.

Photo Source

Digital Realty (DLR) is a data center REIT we’ve owed since October 2013. Shares have returned 20.6% per year during that period, and we expect more good things ahead.

Since going public in November 2004, they’ve returned 9.8% per year. And since the end of the recession, they’ve returned 11.8% per year.

As mentioned above, we like owning shares in DLR and CONE because we believe they’re “best in class” names. And we’re always looking to optimize the “trifecta” of cell towers, data centers, and industrial properties.

Year-to-date, DLR has returned a less impressive 16.4% total return, thanks in large part to the recent news that it’s merging with InterXion Holding (INXN), a Netherlands-based information technology services company.

Although we consider this to be a highly strategic and complementary transaction, there’s always integration risk to consider. The $8.4 billion transaction is being structured as a stock-for-stock combination. INXN will own approximately 20% of the combined company, and DLR shareholders will own the remaining 80%.

Even though earnings growth could be challenging over the next few quarters as the integration progresses, DLR should be in a stronger position to capitalize on favorable growth trends across Europe.

This deal should close this year, and it’s expected to have dilutive impacts. We're modeling 2020 FFO at $6.92 per share.

Analysts forecast FFO per share growth of 2% in 2020, and normalized growth of 7% in 2021. DLR pays a quarterly dividend of $1.08 per share, or $4.32 annually. And it looks to continue a very consistent dividend growth record in which it has raised it every year since 2015.

Shares now trade at $120.37 with a P/FFO multiple of 18.1x. The dividend yield is 3.6%, which is higher than CONE’s, and we expect shares to return around 12%-14% per year.

We maintain a Buy.

Price: $120.37

P/FFO: 18.1x

Dividend yield: 3.60%

Payout ratio: 65%

S&P: BBB

2019 total return: 16.4%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 2%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 7%

Source: FAST Graphs

#10 – Federal Realty Investment Trust

Photo Source

Federal Realty (FRT) boasts the best REIT dividend record in the world. The shopping center-focused company has paid and increased its dividend for a whopping 52 years in a row now.

While nobody has the crystal ball to know if it can continue that record, we believe it’s highly likely that the company will continue that trend.

First off, FRT has an impressive collection of assets: A portfolio that includes 105 well-situated shopping centers. They total 24 million square feet of leasable space leased to 3,000 tenants in some of the most densely populated, fastest-growing and most affluent cities in America.

It also owns nearly 2,700 apartment units as part of its increasingly mixed-use portfolio. This gives it a tremendous scale advantage.

Its top 25 tenants make up 27% of its rental income and include some of the strongest and fastest-growing retailers in America. Think TJX Companies and Home Depot.

Secondly, FRT has an impressive balance sheet that includes a leverage ratio of just 4.3x. That’s one of the lowest of any REIT in the world.

This allows it to borrow at an average interest rate of 3.8% for 11 years – locking in the profitability of its redevelopment projects. The company recently sold $100 million in 10-year bonds at an interest rate of just 2.7%.

That should show the power of its A-rated balance sheet to drive interest costs down even lower.

In 2020, analysts forecast FFO per share growth of 3% and normalized 5% growth in 2021. Given its current valuation with a P/FFO of 19.8x and a dividend yield of 3.34%, we believe FRT could generate returns of 10%-12% annually over the next few years.

We maintain a Buy.

Price: $125.92

P/FFO: 19.8x

Dividend yield: 3.34%

Payout ratio: 65%

S&P: A-

2019 total return: 12.6%

2020 FFO per share forecast: 3%

2021 FFO per share forecast: 5%

Source: FAST Graphs

In Summary...

As I mentioned above, we picked these 10 REITs based on their quality ratings and valuations.

We could have easily included names like Realty Income (O), Store Capital (STOR), Crown Castle (CCI), and American Tower (AMT) due to their quality and predictability. However, the purpose of this article is to provide readers with an “actionable” Buy list.

Companies like those just mentioned (i.e., O, STOR, AMT, and CCI) should be included on your watchlist. They can help fill in the gaps when and if shares become safer to own.

My point is to always invest with a satisfactory margin of safety.

We purposely picked these 10 REITs so that you – being the savvy investor you are – can begin to build a REIT portfolio based on a firm foundation. As illustrated below, we forecast these 10 REITs to return an average of 13.5% per year:

Source: iREIT

I decided to also put together a quick chart comparing REIT performance. Based on total return, it shows how they did over the last decade.

I left Urban Edge off the list since it’s fairly new. Though I did include HTA, CONE, and DOC from when they first listed.

However, the average total annualized return for these nine REITs is 10.3%.

Source: iREIT

Finally, recognizing that there’s a highly likely chance of a recession in the next few years, we didn’t include lodging REITs.

We believe that 20 REITs is a reasonable number of companies to own in a diversified portfolio – allocating 5% for each REIT. And by adequately diversifying, the investor can reduce risk without sacrificing returns.

By diversifying, you provide yourself with insurance so that, if one or two REITs blow up, they won’t severely impact your total return. For example, we have 2.2% exposure in Tanger in the Durable Income Portfolio, and that basket of REITs has returned 20.25% annually since August 2013.

We intend to utilize the above-referenced 10 REITs as the core for our all-new K.I.S.S. portfolio. And we’ll be adding an additional 10 REITs to iREIT on Alpha.

By carefully screening for quality and value, investors should be able to generate solid returns without reaching for yield. After all, as Frank Williams said, “There is only one narrow trail leading to permanent success in the stock market.”

Author's note: Brad Thomas is a Wall Street writer, which means he's not always right with his predictions or recommendations. Since that also applies to his grammar, please excuse any typos you may find. Also, this article is free: Written and distributed only to assist in research while providing a forum for second-level thinking.

Disclosure: I am/we are long O, STOR, HTA, DOC, LTC, VTR, FRT, KIM, UE, SPG, CONE, SKT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.