Tesla's European Model 3 Sales To Decline By 60% In January Based On Registration Data

Jan. 24, 2020 4:21 PM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)353 Comments
Anton Wahlman profile picture
Anton Wahlman
6.97K Followers

Summary

  • January is almost over, and we can now easily extrapolate where Norway, Spain and The Netherlands will land with electric vehicle sales numbers.
  • For the Tesla Model 3, it looks like a 99.67% sales decline in The Netherlands, and 88% declines in Norway and Spain, compared to December.
  • Even if the rest of Europe somehow managed to stay flat, those three-country declines alone would sink Tesla’s European Model 3 sales number by 60%.
  • If instead we compare January 2020 to October 2019, those three countries are tracking “only” to a 52% decline.
  • Whether 52% or 60%, the point is this: Tesla’s European Model 3 business is off to an awful start in January, especially for a company that’s valued like a hyper-growth one.
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NOTE: A version of this article was first published on or about Jan. 24, 2019, on my Seeking Alpha Marketplace site.

On Jan. 2, 2020, with December month sales numbers fresh in hand, I published an article called Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Ahead Of A Reduction In The EV Tax Incentive In The Netherlands, Record Sales.

The article dealt with the extreme jamming-in of Model 3 sales in The Netherlands in December, ahead of a change in the tax law in The Netherlands, and I predicted that sales in January 2020 would collapse as a result.

Specifically, I wrote:

For that reason, it should be clear that we will see the following changes in January 2020 in The Netherlands:

  1. A dramatic reduction in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) sales. How big of a reduction? I estimate more than 90%.

A 90% reduction in sales would have been bad. Now, with The Netherlands reporting daily vehicle registration numbers, and we have those numbers for the first 23 days of January, we can easily extrapolate what the January full month will look like, with very little room for error.

So, will Tesla’s Model 3 sales in The Netherlands decline by at least 90%, as I wrote only three weeks ago, on Jan. 2? Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Tesla Model 3 sales

Tesla Model 3

% of Europe

Europe December 2019

22,137

Netherlands December 2019

12,053

54%

Netherlands January 2020 MTD

33

Netherlands January 2020 (EST)

40

Netherlands decline Dec-Jan

-99.67%

Data sources:

-- Daily 3-country registration data: EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain

-- Pan-European registration data here: Europe December 2019

As you can see in the table above, The Netherlands constituted a whopping 54% of Tesla’s pan-European Model 3 sales in the month of December. So far in January, Tesla

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This article was written by

Anton Wahlman profile picture
6.97K Followers
I am a former sell-side analyst -- UBS 1996-2002, Needham 2002-2006 and ThinkEquity 2006-2008. These days I review automobiles and other technology products, as well as analyze the automotive and technology industries, and coming up with long/short ideas. I also continue to write (less frequently) on macroeconomics and politics.

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers.

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