Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Welcome to Wall Street Brunch, our preview of stock market events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. You can also catch this article a day early by subscribing to the Stocks to Watch account for Saturday morning delivery. Podcast listener? Subscribe now to receive Wall Street Breakfast by 8:00 a.m. every trading day on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify (click the highlighted links).

Investors have a lot to digest after panic over the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak sent the market tumbling to its worst weekly loss since 2008 and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low. While the week ahead could include some coordinated actions by central banks to soothe anxiety, there are also likely to be more earnings warnings from multinationals across sectors. It could also be another volatile week for companies perceived as coronavirus plays such as iBio (NYSEMKT:IBIO), Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT), Lakeland Industries (NASDAQ:LAKE), Vaxart (NASDAQ:VXRT), Co-Diagnostics (NASDAQ:CODX), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), Cocrystal Pharma (NASDAQ:COCP), Vir Biotechnology (NASDAQ:VIR), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), Qiagen (NYSE:QGEN), Owens & Minor (NYSE:OMI), Altimmune ((NASDAQ:ALT) and Allied Healthcare Products (NASDAQ:AHPI). On the economic calendar, PMI prints from across the world will be watched closely, as well as reports on durable goods orders and the February employment report. Amid all the market turmoil, energy sector eyes will be focused on Vienna as ministers gather to assess the economic situation and make a decision on output.

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Notable earnings reports: Boingo Wireless (NASDAQ:WIFI), Maxar Technologies (NYSE:MAXR) and Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) on March 2, Target (NYSE:TGT), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) and Hewlett Packard Enterprises (NYSE:HPE) on March 3; Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) and on March 4; Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Kroger (NYSE:KR), Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) and American Outdoor Brands (NASDAQ:AOBC) on March 5.
Go deeper: See Seeking Alpha's complete list of earnings reporters.

Vienna: After oil futures with the largest weekly decline in more than 11 years, the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna on March 5-6 takes on added significance. The meeting could include an announcement on extending productions cuts or even maker a steeper cut than the current 600K barrels per day. The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on oil demand going forward will also be a theme of the meeting. "OPEC+ action appears likely, but the reality may be more muted. As usual, actual supply cuts will likely depend heavily on Saudi Arabia, where cuts already far exceed official quotas," says Schneider Electric commodity analyst Robbie Fraser. The energy sector is down around 20% YTD as sector names like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY), Noble Energy (NASDAQ:NBL), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Cimarex Energy (NYSE:XEC), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) and Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) continue to get battered over consumption worries and new questions over dividend payouts.

IPO watch: GFL Environment (GFL) is expected to price its $1.77B IPO on March 3. Also of interest, the analyst quiet period expires on Casper Sleep (NYSE:CSPR) on March 2. Shares of Casper closed at $9.02 on Friday vs. the IPO pricing level of $12. Will analysts boost the online bedding stock with bullish reports? Other quiet period expirations in the week ahead include Schrodinger (NASDAQ:SDGR) and PPD (NASDAQ:PPD) on March 2 and OneWater Marine (NASDAQ:ONEW), Nexpoint Real Estate (NYSE:NREF) and Professional Holding (NASDAQ:PFHD) on March 3. Also, watch for news on DoorDash (DOORD) after the company disclosed that it filed confidentially for an IPO. The DoorDash IPO could be of interest to Uber Eats (NYSE:UBER), Postmates (POSTM) and GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB).
Go deeper: Catch up on all the latest IPO news.

Projected dividend changes (quarterly): TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) to $0.26 from $0.23, Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) to $0.28 from $0.255, Kohl's (KSS) to $0.73 from $0.67, General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) to $1.10 from $1.02, Cabot Micro (NASDAQ:CCMP) to $0.44 from $0.42, Gentex (NASDAQ:GNTX) to $0.12 from $0.115, Taubman Centers (NYSE:TCO) to $0.695 from $0.675, American Tower (NYSE:AMT) to $1.08 from $1.01, Vector Group (NYSE:VGR) to $0.20 from $0.40. Go deeper: Read the latest dividend analysis.

M&A tidbits: The buyout of Hudson's Bay Company (OTCPK:HBAYF) is slated to close on March 3. Shareholders with MutualFirst Financial (NASDAQ:MFSF) vote on the merger with Northwest Bancshares (NASDAQ:NWBI). M&A talk could continue around a potential Gilead Sciences (GILD)-Forty Seven (NASDAQ:FTSV) pairing, as well as Kindred Biosciences (NASDAQ:KIN), Boingo Wireless (WIFI) and Nokia (NYSE:NOK).

Analyst/investor meetings: It's a big week for companies to hold their annual investor/analyst meetings as the tech, retail, financial and energy sectors will all be represented. AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) has it Investor Day on tap for March 5 with shares off about 15% over the last week. Meanwhile, the Exxon Mobil (XOM) Investor Day on March 5 arrives with shares down over 25% YTD. Target (TGT) also has its financial community scheduled for March 3 just after the retailer's Q4 earnings release is spilled. Other analyst/investor events during the week include United Utilities (OTCPK:UUGWF) and Eaton (NYSE:ETN) on March 2, as well as Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Keysight Technologies (NYSE:KEYS), LAM Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV) and Hubbell (NYSE:HUBB) on March 3.

Breakfast wars: Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN) jumps into the breakfast wars with a national launch for the daypart featuring nine sandwiches, including a breakfast twist on the famous Baconator. Wendy's will also introduce a new coffee blend and an iced Frosty-ccino drink. Dunkin' Donuts (NASDAQ:DNKN) and Panera dialed up new promotions and breakfast menu offerings of their own ahead of the Wendy's launch, while McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) timed its National Egg McMuffin Day with a free sandwich to customers for March 2. Breakfast heavyweight Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) will also be active next week, with the introduction in Canada of a plant-based Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) sandwich to the menu. Starbucks is widely expected to add plant-based menu items in the U.S. later this year.

U.S. auto sales: TrueCar projects U.S. auto sales will rise 0.2% when adjusted for the extra Leap Year selling day. The research firm sats this month's SAAR for total light-vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1M units. Forecast by manufacturer (adjusted by selling days) - BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) +9.3% tp 31,214 units, Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) +5.1% to 27,825 units, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) -0.6% to 174,564 units, Ford (NYSE:F) -6.7% to 186,854 units, General Motors (NYSE:GM) -1.8% to 222,475 units, Honda +2.4% (NYSE:HMC) to 127,751 units, Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF) +11.6% to 56,982 units, Kia (OTCPK:HYMLF) +14.3% to 53,752 units, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) -14.4% to 105,993 units, Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY) +3.3% to 54,951 units, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)+9.1% to 181,97 units and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) +4.9% to 50,948 units.

Geneva Motor Show: The annual auto show in Geneva has been canceled, but automakers have a backup plan. Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY), BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) and Bentley (OTCPK:VWAGY) are taking their presentations online. The BMW i4, Mercedes E-Class and Fiat (FCAU) 500 are some of the models expected to be shown off digitally.

Macau: Casino investors will need to brace themselves for the upcoming report from Macau authorities on February gross gaming revenue. February GGR could be down as much as 85% to 90% due to the closing of casinos during the month amid the coronavirus outbreak. Looking further ahead, analysts forecast Q1 GGR could decrease as much as 40% to 45% and 2020 GGR could fall 15% to 20%. While most casinos are open, there isn't much visibility on when tourism and visits from Mainland China will pick up again to boost Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMF), Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVF), MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHF), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO) and Studio City International (NYSE:MSC).

Business updates: General Motors (GM) will update investors on its electrification strategy during a special EV Day event on March 4. General Electric (NYSE:GE) has an investor call scheduled for March 4. Brighthouse Financial (NASDAQ:BHF) is scheduled to provide an update on March 5. Costco (COST) and Buckle (NYSE:BKE) are due to issue sales reports for January on March 5.

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference: The TMT confab scheduled for San Francisco from March 2-4 includes participation from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Altice USA (NYSE:ATUS), AMC Networks (NASDAQ:AMCX), Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG), AT&T (NYSE:T), Capital One (NYSE:COF), CDK Global (NASDAQ:CDK), Charter (NASDAQ:CHTR), Cloudflare (NYSE:NET), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Cree (NASDAQ:CREE), CRTO, CCI, FSCT, FTNT, Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN), Glu Mobile (NASDAQ:GLUU), GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO), GrubHub (GRUB), IMAX (NYSE:IMAX), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ:LAMR), Lions Gate (NYSE:LGF.A), HP (NYSE:HPQ), Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT), Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), RealReal (NASDAQ:REAL), Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO), Weight Watchers International (NASDAQ:WW), ZAYO, ZBRA, Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG), Zscalar (NASDAQ:ZS), Cinemark (NYSE:CNK), New York Times (NYSE:NYT), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Box (NYSE:BOX), Live Nation Entertainment (NYSE:LYV), CyberArk Software (NASDAQ:CYBR), HubSpot (NYSE:HUBS), Viacom (NASDAQ:VIA) Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Proofpoint (NASDAQ:PFPT), 8x8 (NYSE:EGHT), Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ:CDNS), Uber (UBER), Fox Corporation (NASDAQ:FOXA), Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC), Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) and Palo Alton Networks (NYSE:PANW).

Public transportation: The Massachusetts House could pass a bill next week aimed at giving consumers incentive to use public transit by increasing gas taxes to $0.05 a gallon and raising state fees on ride-hailers to $1.20 per ride ($2.20 for luxury trips) from a prior charge of $0.20 per ride. If other states were to follow in the lead of the Commonwealth, companies like Avis Budget (NASDAQ:CAR), Hertz Global (NYSE:HTZ), Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) could be hurt as consumers become more selective. The tax headache arrives on top of broad concerns in the travel industry over the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in Q1 and perhaps beyond.

Spotlight on airlines : Traffic reports are due out from American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL), Azul (NYSE:AZUL), United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL), Spirit Airline (NYSE:SAVE), Gol Linhas (NYSE:GOL), Copa Holdings (NYSE:CPA), Delta, Volaris (NYSE:VLRS), Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), Hawaiian Holdings (NASDAQ:HA), Alaska Air (NYSE:ALK) and JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) next week. Those updates could include some guidance revisions.

Cowen and Company 40th Annual Healthcare Conference: The conference scheduled for Boston from March 2-4 will include attendance from healthcare companies big and small. Participants include Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Bio-Techne (NASDAQ:TECH), Aerie Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AERI), Allena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNA), MyoKardia (NASDAQ:MYOK), Stoke Therapeutics (NASDAQ:STOK), Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE:TMO), Neoleukin Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NLTX), Oyster Point Pharma (NASDAQ:OYST), Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE:EW), Alector (NASDAQ:ALEC), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD), Vericel Corporation (NASDAQ:VCEL), Alkermes (NASDAQ:ALKS), Unity Biotechnology (NASDAQ:UBX), DexCom (NASDAQ:DXCM), Aduro BioTech (NASDAQ:ADRO), Tricida (NASDAQ:TCDA), MeiraGTx (NASDAQ:MGTX), Black Diamond Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BDTX), Altreca (NASDAQ:BCEL), Vir Biotechnology (VIR), Hansa Biopharma (OTC:HNSBF), United Therapeutics (NASDAQ:UTHR), GlycoMimetics (NASDAQ:GLYC), PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ:PDLI), Myovant Sciences (NYSE:MYOV), X4 Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:XFOR), NextCure (NASDAQ:NXTC), Athenex (NASDAQ:ATNX), Urovant Sciences (NASDAQ:UROV), Establishment Labs (NASDAQ:ESTA), Cytom Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CTMX), 10X Genomics (NASDAQ:TXG), Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:RYTM), NGM Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:NGM), Foamix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:FOMX) and Global Blood Therapeutics (NASDAQ:GBT).

Barron's mentions: The publication tackles the question of what stocks investors should consider in times of market turmoil. Based off cash positions and valuations, the list included Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD), Newmont (NYSE:NEWM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Comcast (CMCCSA) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ). Supply chain disruption is seen as a problem that could ripple through the economy for months. A myriad of companies could be affected, including Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Cummins (NYSE:CMI), Terex (NYSE:TEX), JAbil (NYSE:JBL), Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) and Nike (NYSE:NKE).

Sources: CNBC, EDGAR, The Verge, Reuters, Bloomberg

Comments

[matt.wood]

"The week ahead" well nobody really knows where the markets will be by Friday.
Strangely between now and Friday millions of Americans will gas up their cars and trucks and gas will warm their homes yet the sp of oil companies like XOM and smaller players flattened by fears of a recession.

[SB Pirate]

Has anyone else noticed that the Certificate of Deposit inventory at the large brokers has almost disappeared in one week? I had 3 tranches of 3 months CD's at 3 brokers to roll over between the 18th and 28th. On the 18th lots to pick from, no problem 1.6%. On the 26th inventory seemed a bit skinny but still found a 4 mo at 1.6%. On the 28th, I could not find anything I wanted to buy and some time periods had zero offerings! First time I have ever seen that!

What does it mean?

If the average investor sold this last weeks market drop and went into CD's... their money is not coming back into the market for at least 30 day but always wonder if something else is going on.

[flufferty the gigabot]

The Fed will cut within weeks to <1%, so rates like 1.6% are a king's ransom.

[P over A]

Ally has 11 month no penalty CDs at up to 1.9%. Cash out anytime no penalty.

[P over A]

The constant Fed pump is ridiculous, let the market correct. Valuations are absurd.

[njbr]

Key things to note: infections on west coast are from exposure weeks ago, with sick people having presented symptoms almost two weeks ago, but with no means of testing. This week and next, more cases are quite likely to pop up. A school is closed for part of this week for "deep cleaning", but the person at the school first had symptoms on the 19th.

It would be foolish to bet that this is the extent we will see. This is the tip of the iceberg.

It's not contained, it's not a political hoax.

Effective leaders in crisis need self-awareness, self-control, social awareness, and practice relationship management. If the discussion of the crisis cannot be separated from a politically charged discussion, there will only be worse outcomes in store for all Americans. Trump is lacking in those vital attributes to be an effective leader in a crisis.

For his own political survival and the good of America he needs to get effective, knowledgeable people who understand what is needed in leadership positions ASAP. In two weeks this will have spun badly out of control from the weak beginning of his administrations response. That won't be good for anyone.

The worst thing that has come out about the virus last week is that it is persistent in some "recovered" people--this has been a subject of several papers, including this one on Friday from JAMA which discussed four doctors who fell ill with the virus and still were contagious after their recovery....

.....Four patients with COVID-19 who met criteria for hospital discharge or discontinuation of quarantine in China (absence of clinical symptoms and radiological abnormalities and 2 negative RT-PCR test results) had positive RT-PCR test results 5 to 13 days later. These findings suggest that at least a proportion of recovered patients still may be virus carriers. Although no family members were infected, all reported patients were medical professionals and took special care during home quarantine. Current criteria for hospital discharge or discontinuation of quarantine and continued patient quarantine management may need to be reevaluated....

This means that ending quarantine soon may result in new outbreaks because the released people can still transmit the disease. How will that be addressed in a world without effective firebreaks like an effective vaccine? How long will a population remain in quarantine--obviously possibly forever in a country like China, but what about in the west.

Thus it appears that until an effective vaccine has been widely administered (herd immunity) a lot of people will have to be in some sort of quarantine. That is the next battle our medical and political leadership will have to sort out.

I doubt that China will open the gates to let the larger population of their country fall ill, so they are probably in quarantine mode until they have a vaccine.

So don't expect resumption of China output anytime soon.

[2959]

It will be interesting to see the Viruses reaction to the antibiotics being used that it’s already resistant too or ineffective. Will it become super resistant? My MIL is in the hospital as we speak with a respiratory infection. In-line drip of antibiotics for what the Doctors called coronovirus, just not the COVID-19 virus. The other concern is the overwhelming of the Healthcare system, regardless of the virus type. Workers, equipment (ventilators etc.). With the couple currently reported cases of COVID, it’s still new and novel. You see multiple healthcare workers for one person. That ain’t going to happen if the numbers increase. The current facility my MIL is in is already short staffed, add that too the unknown (100%) form of transmission and volunteers will be in short supply.

[User 48680200]

Antibiotics do not work against viruses, they kill bacteria, so that they can help control secondary infections, but not the virus itself.

[2959]

So the Coronavirus vaccination is only to have the body produce its own antibodies against this existing version? Sorry, not in Medicine, but the course of antibiotics currently being provided is only to control the bacterial infections committed by the Coronavirus? Meaning, the Coronavirus can’t be killed, but the secondary bacterial infections it causes can (hopefully)? Very interesting things to think about. Now to figure out how to convert this into investments.

[SowingAlfalfa]

Highly recommend the following article-

" Weighing The Week Ahead: Heeding The Message Of The Markets

Summary

Economic news has been good, but no one cares. We have a big week for fresh data, but few will care about that either.

We'll get Super Tuesday election results, but probably little market reaction. The continuing focus will be on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the strong reaction in financial markets.

I have downgraded my market view and reduced position size to reflect increased risk.

I analyze the science, the market mechanics, the economics, the psychology, the earnings effects, and the sources. Since we are not experts in all of this we must seek the best experts.

I share my own stock moves and offer some general thoughts about what readers might do "

seekingalpha.com/...

Also recommend the following two articles-

seekingalpha.com/...

seekingalpha.com/...

[reditus55]

Can anyone make sense of why defense stocks are down 12 to 15 pts while other domestic business that depend on overseas supply chain are down only fractionally? Overseas defense sales account for 25 to 30% of revenue but they have known contracts and continual cash flow.

[trlly]

Big red exit button.

[civas666]

Cause there are too many stupid money, indices, ETFs

Cause there is general short the market hoard cash mood

Since when markets were rational

Wait for the dip to continue and buy value

[AdamFRuns]

I dealt with defense electronics for quite a while. They are very dependent on sourcing components from places like China and Japan. It should not be that way, but it is.

[willywonkaland]

I stayed at Boston encore casino over weekend . Only saw 2 people wearing masks , attendence does seem slightly down from last time I was here but overall doesnt seem like much concern and Boston has a large chinese population .

[flufferty the gigabot]

With markets like this who needs to visit a casino?

[P over A]

Probably making a withdrawal.

[caaaad]

With Corona beer sales plummeting how does one give any credibility to humans. Should be laughable but then we have Chicago police arresting 70 year old blind black man and his overweight handicapped wife as potential bank robbers. Later they repeated the obvious. Mistaken identity. Jim Jones redux

[mwhite0494]

Hahaha...finally a post that makes absolute sense. Thank you caaaad.

[Mrmarkaallen]

The corona virus has been reported in the northern suburbs of Cook County in Illinois. I don’t know why it’s not being reported nationally but it is in the front page of the Sun Times in our area.

[SowingAlfalfa]

"Illinois health officials confirm 3rd COVID-19 case in Cook County; will request CDC to deploy team to area ..."

abc7chicago.com/...

" ... Washington State officials are investigating a potential outbreak of coronavirus at a health facility that cares for elderly, vulnerable patients, after two people at the facility were infected.

Two people at a LifeCare nursing facility in Kirkland, Washington, were diagnosed with the virus, health officials there said Saturday. One is a health-care worker in her 40s, and is in satisfactory condition at a local hospital. The other is an female resident of the facility in her 70s, and is in serious condition at the same hospital, local health authorities said.

In addition, more than 50 residents and staff at the facility have shown symptoms of a respiratory illness, according to Jeff Duchin, health officer for public health in Seattle and King County. Tests of the residents are ongoing ..."

www.bloomberg.com/...

[SowingAlfalfa]

Some hopeful info (from Science News)-

" What the new phase of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. means for you. Health experts warn there are probably many undetected COVID-19 cases already here

... “I think it’s good to be aware of the hypothetical worst case, with the knowledge that the worst case is unlikely,” because of public health efforts to contain the epidemic, he says.

“There are no-brainers like school closure,” that might help limit spread of the virus, Volz says. Children aren’t suffering much severe illness, but they may still get infected and transmit the virus. Restricting travel, closing public transportation and banning mass gatherings like concerts can affect virus spread.

The rest of the world probably won’t see the explosive growth of cases that Wuhan experienced, Gostic says. “The first emergence of a virus is always a worst-case scenario,” she says, “because no one is prepared for it and people who are getting infected at first have no idea that they have a novel pathogen.” ...."

www.sciencenews.org/...