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Dinesh S profile picture
@Zhiyuan Sun

Sociétés des Produits Nestlé S.A., part of Nestlé Health Science, to acquire Aimmune for $34.50 per share in cash, representing a total equity value of $2.6 Billion and a 174% premium to Aimmune’s closing price on August 28, 2020
After 1 year of presence, I leave the Seeking Alpha forum.
Good luck for all of you and take care.
I sustain = in my opinion.
AIMT remains alone of this segment ( food desensitization ) and the share continues to go down.
Without the factual " give up " of it's unique concurrent and even the fact that Nestle probably sustain the society, the share value has been divided by 3 since the FDA approval.
So, I sustain that desensitization will be not the gold standard therapy for alimentary allergy.
Today is a special test for AIMT after the DBV knock down .
A fatal another disillusion for DBV ?
Factually now , all the market should be reserved for AIMT.
I put a buy ( limited ) order on AIMT.
With a fast buy this morning on the Euronext market ( after the initial panic reaction ) it was easy to realize some winner A/R on DBV.
May be it could be also the case in the US market, but now the new has been largely defused and many are well informed.
A sunny and warm day in Belgium with a possible brake for the Covid-19 dramatic expansion.
I want to say good luck to everyone.
The business is important but the health is fundamental and is our biggest fortune.
So, it's vital to follow strictly the recommendations.
Here ya go- (and there goes DBV)

DBV Technologies (Euronext: DBV - ISIN: FR0010417345 - Nasdaq Stock Market: DBVT), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed the Company that during its ongoing review of the Biologics License Application (BLA) for investigational Viaskin Peanut, it has identified questions regarding efficacy, including the impact of patch-site adhesion. Therefore, the Allergenic Products Advisory Committee (APAC) meeting to discuss the BLA will no longer take place as previously scheduled on May 15, 2020.

The Company is in communication with the FDA regarding the potential submission of additional information on patch-site adhesion from its clinical program as well as long-term efficacy results from the three-year open-label extension study, PEOPLE, to answer FDA's questions, as part of the ongoing BLA review.
Geloo profile picture
I predict the FDA will require another phase 3 trial to prove adequate efficacy. The one trial they have never did show adequate efficacy at the lower end of the 95% confidence interval. You can try and spin the trial anyway you want, but it did not PROVE efficacy where needed. I was wrong predicting that DBVT would have a difficult adcom - they are NOT having an adcom.
DBV : - 14 % ( live ) in Paris with the CAC 40 at about - 10%.
The situation will not be the same after this crisis.
It's the model which clearly shows it's limits.
Even the societies which are active in the field of the Covid-19 suffer.
Nevertheless I shift 75% of my portfolio through such societies ( Clorox, Alpha Pro Tech, Novacyt,... ). I have just keep my Soliton.
Take care of your health in priority.
And after, your investments.
keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Next Aimt. earnings announcement approximately May 12th. DBVT. ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING MAY 15TH. aimmune therapeutics said at their last earnings announcement that they will have very little sales by May. I don't quite understand why that is. If no sales after 3 months and dbvt gets a positive referral.....
lastleaf profile picture
@stesha536 I don't think that's what AIMT said. They said they will only have little sales in March (not May) because by the time Palforzia is available to be prescribed, it would be almost mid march. Having any kind of sales is a non-issue.
Initially I had bought in around $31, and I’ve been watching like the rest of us the crash of the stock market and as of today I added quite a bit to my position, brought down my average purchase price to around $20. The market cap of the company is around 960 million dollars. This is a company with $200 million on hand with zero debt. This is a no brainer at this point. All this corona virus related sell off is a huge opportunity.

From now on I’m going to accumulate on the dips until the end of the year. I’m planning to pay off my mortgage with this trade. 

And a few words for all the shorts out there. Perhaps the drug won’t be as successful with parents and doctors as you claim, only time will tell. But this is a real company with no liabilities and the only fda approved drug for peanut allergy. It’s surely worth something don’t you think?

Reading keko and this Belgian doctor guys comments makes me feel like I’m reading the comments of a hateful, jealous competitor who is craving attention to his own company.

Just my two cents.
@Dont lose perspective ,
It's very sad to read such comment.
I said that I was a shareholder of the 2 companies.
I sold my AIMT shares at 32,4 $ with a loss of 2 $ /share.
I sold my DBV ( in Paris and NY ) with a nice PV.
Since a long time, I give my impression an push to sell because I think that the field of alimentary desensitization is a dream.
If you loose money, I'am not happy, but it's not my fault. If it can diminish your pain, please, you can speak about me but you will just loose time after money.
Have a nice we.
Do you understand now my skepticism ?
Even today, AIMT is unable to sustain 19 $.
If the only problem of AIMT is the cancellation of the AAAAI next future meeting...
MyPrivilegeIsShowing profile picture
Keko, interesting that you bring that point up. I am board-certified in allergy and immunology and do not plan on using this product. Several colleagues and I have successfully been performing desensitization with the goal of having the patient eat 8 peanuts twice a day, which makes them pretty much bulletproof. This product is much more expensive and has a lower maintenance dose which provides less protection. I think it will have some value to some of my colleagues and to many parents who would only choose to use something that is approved by the FDA, but at this point I am not even taking names for my waiting list because the demand is so high for not only peanut, but walnut, soy, egg, etc.
@MyPrivilegeIsShowing ,
Thanks for giving me a little of your time for a response.
As I had already say , I was a shareholder of AIMT & DBV.
My intime conviction now is that the investments in the field of alimentary sensitization is a mistake.
Except for some cases, the logical approach is eviction and Epipen when accidental absorption. With the modern vision of the world, the possibility to received a ( +/- ) protection will push the patients to be less prudent and at mid-term much dramatic issues.
That's why , I'am persuaded that this medical solution will never be an important business because it will be difficult to convinced many doctors to use it . The ratio efficacy and cost / safety is too high.
Antony from Belgian.
PS : I have been surprise with the change of the time in US. In Europe , this manoeuvre will be applicate the 29 March.
NDHT profile picture

"From Belgium with Love".
MyPrivilegeIsShowing profile picture
AAAAI meeting that was to start March 13 has been canceled. This company will not be able to present its favorable data to a live audience
Chris Valley profile picture
Rite Aide in Salem, Oregon USA has this Palforzia now available by Rx.

Now people can buy it and we can find out "if Mikey likes it"
Charts profile picture
What the article / author did not take into consideration was this, the drug was approved by the FDA not so people allergic to peanuts can eat peanuts, the drug was approved so people allergic to peanuts can be around peanuts. There is a huge difference between holding peanuts in your hand and consuming them. The drug was not approved so people allergic can eat foods containing nuts / peanuts. So yes, does this drug or will this drug improve someone's life around peanuts, the answer is yes. As with every drug, some work and some do not. The fact is, this is the only drug approved for peanut allergies and with that said, every doctor in the country will prescribe it in hopes it works for their patient. The initial sales should be unquestionably record breaking, if the booming sales continue after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd qtr's, that's a whole new question that cannot be answered until we see initial sales from the drug.
Ok, so, on yet another note...I only know this from another message board, someone posted it, the drug is now being filled at CVS Pharmacy and Walgreens. It wasn't in the database weeks ago, now it’s available for patients / doctors to prescribe. If you need confirmation, call the pharmacy and ask them if they can fill a script for the drug, PALFORZIA, they will say "YES," the drug is in the database, all they need is a doctor's script.
On another note, has anyone looked at the March 30, 30 2020 options?
Traders are expecting a huge spike soon.
There is a beautiful song of Supertramp : " Dreamer ".
May be that you can ear it another time.
For me, the field of the alimentary desensitization is just an illusion ( for a mass treatment ).
A panel of independent experts said that the only efficacious treatment is avoidance and Epipen if needed.
And factually the decrease of about 50 % of the share value is not only the effect of the Covid-19 effect.
" Traders are expecting a huge spike soon " and the share is extra-super-over sell ? Are you a complotist ?
I doubled my position yesterday. thanks to all the shorts out there.
It would have been helpful to see the author's disclosure of his credential. Why would he challenge the decisions of FDA and it's expert panel? The regulatory decision was based on experts' scientific and clinical assessments of the risks and benefits of the drug, taking account of the net adverse effects as compared to the placebo. One cannot simply deny the benefits based on risks. Also, sparing life threatening events, not improving quality of life, would be the goal of using the drug. The company could conduct another study to assess QOL, but it is just a soft endpoint.
Charts profile picture
I'm new to SA and yes, I agree, the article is absolutely false on its face devoid of fact. Here's why, and these are real factual statistics:

Peanut allergy market set for remarkable growth to 2027. ... Starting with estimated sales worth $2.6M in 2017, the peanut allergy market is expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 111% and reach sales of $4.5B in 2027. GlobalData believes that the US will represent almost 88% of this global market.

Hope this eases stock holder tensions.

Best of luck with your trades!
denden99 profile picture
Please what are your qualifications to all of that "logic and opinion" in the medical field ? ... You seem to know a lot more than the doctors who have been requesting sales meetings with AIMT as of the release date. Something seem incongruent and it seems like it's this article not the allergy industries exuberance to have small solutions to tiny problems as you suggest. Also you don't mention the incomprehensible level faith by Nestle and other to fund this loser ?
Are you sure that you didn't write this a couple of weeks ago, and let this sit on the shelf ?

With the stock at where it is now,nearly everyone who owns the stock is probably underwater,

If someone's kid actually could safely eat Pad Thai after treatment they would be thrilled. They just want their kid to be safe around peanut butter,not for them to actually eat it.

There have been classes of drugs that have failed commercially like the weight loss drugs (Originally From ARNA, VVUS and OREX)., but even modest sales (Like getting to 100 M annually may be fine as they have a pipeline with more products and a 15% owner that is betting plenty on them)

No position now. I made a little bit of $ when I owned this and a lot more with covered calls and long options, I am looking to get in for an indeterminate amount of time when if this goes down another couple of points.

The next event that wil spike the price is the DBVT panel on Friday 05/15.
gjackoh profile picture
I hope the author of this article didn't get paid by shorts. Because if they did, they really wasted their money on an extremely ineffective and misleading hit piece.
Is it so difficult to take 15 minutes and to analyze the facts , only the facts ?
Do you prefer that all the " non uppers " should not write anymore on a forum.
you did not even spend 1 minute to answer my question if DBVT has published tolerated dose of their product?
Sorry but I have squeeze your question.
First at this moment, I have no share of AIMT neither DBV.
With generalization, we can say that with AR101 , a patient tolerates about 8 peanuts and 6 with the Viaskin patch or in arachide proteins equivalence.
Is-it the sense of your question ?
My preoccupation ( coronavirus effect excluded ) is the prospective global market volume for alimentary desensitization.
Sure that the " Health " seems to be a good investment vector or the 5G technology but I'an mow very skeptic for AIMT and DBV.
For instance, to date I hesitate to by Genfit.
Really sorry also for my not perfect English.
It's sure that the ratio : Risk / Efficacy is enormous.
The market had understand this evidence with a 12 $ share value decrease since the FDA approval.
It's quite evident that AR101 will not reach the status of blockbuster.
apply the same logic than to DBVT it will go to 0 then.
Zero no ,but very very low because there will be some sales but it's important to note that DBV do not have a society like Nestle in it's capital.
And in my opinion this field of investment is a wrong way.
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