Nutrien (NTR) Presents At 2020 Global Agriculture & Materials Conference - Slideshow
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The following slide deck was published by Nutrien Ltd. in conjunction with this event.
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Comments (38)
From time to time, I comment on what is going on in Belarus. I do that because Belarus is one of the major global suppliers of potash. Otherwise I would have no interest in that Communist, totalitarian regime headed by a first class sociopath. What is noteworthy at the moment is that Belarus is perhaps the only country in the world doing absolutely nothing about the spread of COVIN-19. It is business as usual with no effort being taken to change the behavior patterns of the general public. Lukashenka, when asked about the spread of the Coronavirus replied that it really isn't anything that can't be dealt with by drinking vodka and driving a tractor. Moreover, given that it affects the elderly if at all, that will reduce the country's pension obligations.I have no idea how long it will take before the effects of people simply going to work every morning in crowded public transport, visiting bars and cafes, attending sporting events and going shopping will take its inevitable toll. And the children of Belarus continue to go to school, often accompanied by their grandparents. But what interests me in this situation is what impact, if any, will a spread of the epidemic have on Belaruskali, the enterprise that mines and sells potash worldwide.
At the rate NTR continues to decline, the stock is likely to end up under $20 per share. One would hope that management would take advantage of this and repurchase a much larger percentage of its outstanding stock than it is currently doing--something in the 10%-20% range.
K&S, the German potash company is hurting financially big time. They just announced that they have put on the auction block their salt unit which is the largest salt supplier in the world. Debt reduction is the goal given that its overall debt now stands at nearly 5 times EBITDA. A significant element is the growth of the debt load was the financing of the Legacy potash project in Canada [viz., the Bethune mine] which has not worked out. K&S has a BB- debt rating from Standard & Poohs which puts it 3 notches below investment grade. Over the past 6 months, while NTR has lost 30% of its value, K&S has lost 60% of its value and now trades for less than 7 euros.
NTR will probably buy their salt biz lol...ICL looks about as attractive as NTR right now.
CB What advantages does ICL have over NTR?
None really..I prefer NTR and its showing some strength today, could be a false signal. ICL is probably a better option than say, MOS. They're all weak, along with CF.
It wasn't that long ago that one of the SA authors speculated that NTR had a reasonable chance in a few years to become a $90 per share stock. I guess with the stock down over 12% today and trading at about $28, the shelf life of that article proved to be quite short.
Well, by that logic..NTR should have been going up for a long time as NG declined. This is about commodities..demand..supply.
Atlantic Equities, a U.S. brokerage firm based in London, initiated an Overweight rating on NTR with a TP, converted from the Canadian dollar, of $50.00 per share. I wonder what prompted this.
I bought a little bit this morning for 33.01, but we will probably see it in the 20s if the market keeps dropping. People are way to worried about coronavirus. coronavirus that might kill 100 people in usa and they are loading up on junk food while heart disease kills over 600K people in usa a year. Thats how stupid our society is. The death rate in china is going down. And a vaccine will be made at some point.
I thought fertilizer is good for coronavirus? I been looking last 2 days on the drop. i am kind of surprised all the big drops. people will be buying more food through a pandemic. i know i saw article on this last month was made and the fertilizer stocks went up 3%. Something had to of happen some sort of news to make fertilizer stocks sell of like this. But i can't find anything.
bought more today at 29 i am kid in candy store right now
Thoughts of filing today?
Is NTR heading for the 20s? If it is, the current share repurchase program should be completed promptly and a new one buying back, say, another 10% of the outstanding stock should be implemented.
futures is down so it might be headed that way. I think people are more into the 8-10% yield stocks right now and be more defensive way the market is tanking.
an example rds-a right now is paying over 10% yield right now and they also are doing a buy back. So i think for investors if they have to pick between the 2 the yield is gonna get them.
I was wrong about this the oil stocks got hammered worse then ntr. I been looking around but not seeing much on why such a big dip on this business. this is a great business to own at half price of what its value is. Its insane.
I noticed that NTR is only slightly positive on a 700 point DOW day. Pretty unimpressive. Even less impressive will be if it finishes in the red for the day. And this is with the buyback program underway.
Pretty amazing to be honest..at this point, they should suspend all capex and buy shares.
The stock just went into the red. That was easy.
ntr is really strange today.
Well..at this pace..maybe they can buy every share when it hits "0" with every other commodity name.
First Eagle bought a $1B new position in NTR in Q4. It's a significant position for them.
NTR is now down 4%. Not exactly great timing to take a position.
I am surprised that nobody has mentioned the investor news item last week on February 28th. NTR announced another share repurchase program since the previous one had expired on February 26th. The current one though is to repurchase up to 5% of its outstanding stock between February 27th of this year and February 26th of 2021. Assuming that the entire amount contemplated to her repurchased occurs, that will mean that another 28.572 million shares will be gone. Under the prior repurchase plan, the average price NTR paid for its shares was $51.91. They will be paying a lot less this time around given the ongoing share price slump. By repurchasing its own stock, NTR will save over $51 million in dividends that need not be paid on the repurchased shares.
They should buy back more then that. 5% is really not very much.
Judging by how NTR has been approaching its share repurchase programs, my guess is that as soon as the current one is fulfilled another one will take its place but it will probably be another 2% or 5% share repurchase. You are right that they can do more; the cash is there but I think they prefer to just have these rolling buybacks in the range I mentioned. We'll see.
If they don't up the ante on share buy backs at these levels i will be shocked.
DOW up almost 600 but NTR is in the red. People must have viewed the slide deck.
After reviewing the slide deck, I agree with Christopher Muir, the analyst for CFRA, who writes that NTR should be able to earn $2.00 per share in 2020.
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