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Comments (464)

Wow...over 2 million shares of NMCI the past several days....and it couldn't move the needle (stock) at all. Pathetically destined to zero??
J Mintzmyer profile picture
Think a couple big sellers are still cutting plus it’s a pretty brutal sector to be in. But wait, there’s more! Reverse split probably coming down the pike sooner than later.
Biological profile picture
@J Mintzmyer With bunkers the way they are (presumably dirt cheap), having no scrubbers is fine and, in hindsight, a good happenstance; they own a lotta of old sea snakes (long, narrow [for old Panama canal] and large-engined, fast Panamax-class vessels), will these units will come back in fashion? They suffer from the "Navios complex" issues. Like GSL, if they liquidate fleet, returns would be >400% perhaps. Or if they liquidate a few just as a demo....
Thewaltzy profile picture
They used to suggest they would scrap ships for cash. Wouldn’t that give them lots of $$$ for debt repayment?.
Hooper drives the boat chief profile picture
J, if you don’t mind answering are you still positive on $SBLK? Obviously the tankers speak for themselves but I’m getting back into dry bulk a bit down here and after today’s drop it looks to have more upside potential than downside. Not sure if you agree.
J Mintzmyer profile picture
Difference between liking the price and being "positive" on the current dynamics. First is "yes, for sure" second is more nuanced.

Seems like an update to this list is overdue, stay tuned!
valuinvst profile picture
Here goes shipping again down the drain. Up markets it lags due to too much capacity, down markets it tanks over recession fears. Maybe you can get lucky daytrading once in a while. I hope this brings an end to the continuous new building but owners are probably saying hey, I can borrow money at even cheaper rates.
Gregorian profile picture
You can daytrade prefs of stable companies these CRAZY days. If you miss, you can collect monster dividends. My problem as a Norwegian based investor, is the currencies are not stable, NOK is dwindling (mostly without reason). GL all.
@Gregorian I’m far from an expert, but if the NOK is dwindling, it may be because Norway is associated with oil. The market thinks that their economy, and thus their currency, is impacted by the tanking value of oil.
@Gregorian You can daytrade prefs of stable companies these CRAZY days. If you miss, you can collect monster dividends.

Day trade = closing position at end of day?

Mondster Dividends = holding thrugh to get paid dividend.

The two are incompatible, no?
LoneWolf WP profile picture
Just bought Main Street Capital Corporation at a great price IMO, over a billion dollar company with monthly dividends.
Mktneutralhedger profile picture
Only risk is all BDCs are lending to SME, so you need to do a big job to understand which one is less exposed to energy, cyclical business being shut-down, etc.
Perfect shopping list to burn your money. Thanks for nothing.
J Mintzmyer profile picture
Have you looked at the Russell 2000 or any other index?
Just for fun, how much did I make with CPLP, TGP, FLEX?
Let's assume I invested 10k.
Why not use OIH as benchmark?
Why do you not tell "your" readers 2 weeks ago it was time to short the market and not be long?
J Mintzmyer profile picture
@Gri Ma ,

I have zero clue where the broad market will trade. If I did, I'd just trade the $SPY and be a multi-billionaire by now. Perhaps you are smarter in that regard.

My focus is on selecting quality companies in the industry. The 3 companies you mention have are all doing very well fundamentally speaking. So have all of the crude tanker stocks, which I note you've omitted from that list.
Has the “delisting” clock started on NMCI?
Henrik Alex profile picture
They can always conduct a reverse split. There are much bigger problems with debt-laden shipping companies currently.
Thewaltzy profile picture
Yes, but I'd say this isn't exactly priority for any of the indices at the minute. NMCI operates small ships, in (I believe) localised markets. I think it should be ok to be honest.
What happens if a crew member gets the virus?
Thewaltzy profile picture
I assume they’ll send the crew home. Tiny crew = low risk tho.
We have to sink the ship and buy a new one! Next?
So if they send the crew home who runs the ship? Can they easily get a new crew.
J Mintzmyer profile picture
Thank you to everyone for participating in the discussion below. A brief reminder of our Live/Virtual Investor Forum which will be held next week 16-20 March.

We will host 8 exclusive Q&A sessions with top firms in the industry as well as 7 analyst/pundit interviews discussions will kick off next Monday (16-20 March).

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Analysts/Pundits: Michael Webber (Ex-WF), Ben Nolan (Stifel), Randy Giveans (Jefferies), James Catlin, Michael Boyd, Lori Ann LaRocco, & yours truly.

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Jackagain profile picture
I like DAL, LUV & ALK as good airline plays. Also look at SIX & FUN. Both hammered with a great dividend and will most likely go open in time for summer. FUN already said they are opening later this month. All are way better plays than these risky shipping investments.
I don't know about SIX ( Not enough price history ), but FUN is an interesting long term chart.

1994 - 2004 stock went from $2 - $13.00
2004 - 2007 = Traded sideways in a range $11.00 - $13.00
2008-09 Recessin - backd own to $3.00
2009 - 2017 Traded from $ 3.00 - 60.00 ( QE Parabolic trajectory from norm )
2020 - Plummet to current day's value.

Looking to 2008-09 and Historical technical norms,

The stock will likely retrace down to 15.00 Levels ( roughly 2007 Highs where Parabolic move broke above and ran highs ) From the bottom whatever it is - will likely and retest the low levels within a year or so before heading higher for the next run up.

Just one's perspective no the stock. If it reaches 20.00 again, that could be a great Long Term entry, but I think it'll test 15.00 range if I had to guess. You'd have to hold during the drawdown to profit if price plays out that way.

I'll definitely be trying to do some Fundamental research on this one. May pick it up myself. Particularly at 15 if it reaches those levels.

( FUN ) is Nearing 15.00, Plenty of time to see if it holds a resistance level. but the overall market I'm guessing will pull it lower.

Fundamentals aren't my strongest suit, but it looks lie a reasonably profitable business with FCF that can sustain a growing divided. They increased debt by about 500 Million in 2019. Does anybody know what that was about?

Business related - I could see this company shut for the year, and back to normal the following season. Dividend cut for 2020 and start back in 2021 when parks open at a lower level increasing annually along with the share price. There would probably be a strong demand to get back to normalcy upon re-open. They have 183 million in cash. If they cut their overhead to maintenance and holding expenses.,

Sounds like a good backstory for Margin of Safety buy ( assuming they could sustain itself shut down for a year ) Not many competitors in a Capital Intensive park structure. SIX and DIS would be the only 2 competitors that I know of and geography should keep them from direct competition?
Clarkson at 217k VLCC and 73K Suezmax. Oh my.
Terrific article...was able to pick up some DHT in the $5 range during the panic.
J Mintzmyer profile picture
Glad it worked out nicely for you!

Posted an update specifically on tankers here:


Public post on Friday AM due to some delays and editorial shifts.
Value Investor's Edge members received a 'Strong Speculative Buy Alert' Sunday evening via our weekly market report and related analysis.

We're hosting a live forum next week with 14 planned events, Monday-Friday, live Q&A and full recordings and transcripts of company interviews available exclusively for members. 2-week free trials are open:

Jowaniter profile picture
Tanker companies ( and $EGLE) are probably the only companies that generate cah flow. And this in traditionally weak quarters. If we can live trough Q2 and Q3 at these rates, share prices will explode to the upside in Q4.
Tankers turning green.
Henrik Alex profile picture
But take a look at these partnership plays - CPLP and TGP - just terrible.
Mixed bag out there. DHT, STNG, FRO are ok and NAT, TNP, and TNK down. Forced selling? Tankers are the safe haven, who would have thought? Techs and banks getting smashed.
It looks TNK, FRO, and STNG are building for another possible Bullish uptrend or at least trading within a range with the increasing buillish Volume, MACD along with price activity.

Any position in this environment has an increased element of risk. Long or Short.
I have to admit VIE guys are on something here, bullish VLCC rates, contango, etc.
But me thinking, overall economy sliding in a recession, entire continents shut down soon, traffic down big time.
Latest rise in tanker stocks came as a surprise, probably for shorts as well.
IMHO I think you have to be very cautious right now to be long in shipping. Good luck everybody, this is 2008 again, but different somehow.
VLCC rates have surged. Maran with a WS170 rate is eye opening. But the fear in the market trumps everything. Dividends for Q1 and Q2 should outstanding. Recession isn’t probably a foregone conclusion. The Fed enabled stock market bubble has finally bursted.
Damn autocorrect. Recession is probably a foregone conclusion. Did I say that right?
Rates spiked because ships are
a) idle because east asia is paralysed (scrubber installation etc)
b) lots of ships in contango trades
c) oil supply suddenly exploded.

a) + b) + c) looks not very sustainable and might be gone in 6 month.

I think the lastest buying frenzy in VLCC stocks is/was a very good opportunity to short them. It was a classic bear rally.
Robert Boslego profile picture
Artilcle claims to be about "DJT - Dow Jones Transportation Average Index," but it's not even mentioned in the article.

SA editors not applying even standards and giving an editors pick on an article not about the ticker...seems strange.
Nice call on SCO. Still short tankers?
J Mintzmyer profile picture
Weird thing to complain about... They tag the article with $DJT because it needs a primary mark for industry and there is no ETF remaining now that $SEA is gone, thus $DJT is the closest possible marker.
TGP back below 11. Ouch!
When dirty tankers spiked after the COSCO sanctions went in, does anyone recall what the highest fully-fixed voyage actually was? A bunch in the 200-300K range failed, but now we're seeing a few 200K+ again because of the price war... but none of it fully fixed yet. Looking for a measuring stick for when (fingers crossed) we start to see some of these new rates get locked in.
Jowaniter profile picture
Soon we will know. Interesting it is 'again' the Maran Tankers who report these fixtures.
Joeri van der Sman profile picture
I think about 180k. Very curious to see these go "fully fixed"
Thewaltzy profile picture
Who is maran? Or who owns these ships?
Jowaniter profile picture
Fixtures are around $ 180,000/day for AG to China trips.
If these are confirmed that is HUGE !
and most of the tankers going down today....
J Mintzmyer profile picture
All- thanks for reading and for adding to the lively discussion below.

The COVID-19 outbreak and recent oil price war have launched the entire market into turmoil, but specific shipping sectors might be poised to benefit from a plurality of impacts whereas others might be headed for tough times.

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I've opened up free trials so folks who are new to the sector have a chance to learn more from the top analyst and management teams as well as review some of our latest coverage including Q4-19 earnings reviews on nearly 50 firms in the sector:

Joeri van der Sman profile picture
Very nice timing!
I think the oil tankers may have put in a top for trading range yesterday
Any thoughts on NMM today? Huge gap up on high volume and then traded in a tight band the rest of the day. Is this the long awaited buybacks or just a quick reaction on movement in the cape index pre market?
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