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Stocks To Watch: Fading The Fear

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SA Stocks To Watch

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the next week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays on Seeking Alpha, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and Spotify (click the highlighted links).

Investors face another tough week of sizing up the economic consequences of the coronavirus outbreak that has created rippling anxiety in nearly every sector. The week ahead will see a number of investor conferences and presentations go online due to coronavirus concerns and almost certainly a wave of downward revisions to Q1 guidance. On the economic front, the latest reads on consumer prices, producer prices and consumer sentiment will be watched closely. Also of interest, OPEC will issue a monthly oil market report on March 11 and FedEx (FDX) will give its state-of-the-economy update on March 10. It won't be a shocker to hear at least some analysts pitch why long-term investors should jump into the market at bargain prices. On that note, Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives has already set out Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Adobe (ADBE), Zscaler (ZS), Sailpoint (SAIL), Nuance (NUAN), Docusign (DOCU), Nice (NICE) and Uber (UBER) as his top picks on the theory that the coronavirus outbreak doesn't wipe out the long-term transformational bullish trends of cloud computing, 5G, EV, streaming and cyber security for the next few years. Perhaps someone has an undervalued gem of their own to share?

Notable earnings reports: Ascena Retail (ASNA), Stitch Fix (SFIX) and Greenlight Capital (GLRE) on March 9; Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) and Korn Ferry (KFY) on March 10; United Natural Foods (UNFI

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Our news team's weekend preview of upcoming IPOs, earnings reports, conference presentations, investor days, IPO lockup expirations, FDA decisions, Barron's mentions, and other key events that could impact stocks.

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Comments (342)

beefy136 profile picture
what the hell is going on with cvs market up almost 1000 pts and cvs is dragging the rear
If only the world could sue China for gross negligence. Trying to arrest Dr that was warning friends as China government basically said it is not big deal until it was a huge deal. By then it was too late. Sad that the Dr that tried to warn caught CV19 and ending up passing.

China needs to pay!!! Not Chinese. I know many and they are good people, but the country of China needs to pay. They have screwed the US so much and now have screwed the WORLD. F them!!

Looking to not buy Chinese manufactured goods, where possible. Will be difficult, but I am. Okay, my rant is over.
What I find interesting is 80% of our prescription drugs are produced in China. The same country that poisoned and killed their own babies with bad formula. Second how many Americans lives can be saved every year and Americans not being sickened if we will aggressively fight the flu like we are the Coronavirus. I have heard that ten thousand to eighty thousand Americans die every year from the flu. So to be honest with you I am more upset with the American government and We the people than I am China.
If we and all the other global countries could fight the flu they would. Fact is a small % die. Fact is it changes periodically. Fact is it needs to be profitable to fight. Flu vaccine is not always successful, because the flu changes. To say you are upset with the US government over this is just sheer lunacy. Have to be reasonable. China was not reasonable. They had a chance and failed.
Who is brave enough (or foolish enough) to buy this "dip"? Timing the market is difficult, and in any case the market will always rebound, so anyone with a long term horizon should be fine - depending on where that long term horizon lies. Case in point: some companies like Intel never made it back to its pre dot-com level (20 years ago), therefore anyone who is going to buy in the current context needs to be very smart about it and do so with a healthy dose of realism. Fact is, the crash brought about by the CV has many ramifications, some of which haven't even hit the news yet. One of them -- and in my opinion the most important one and one which is little talked about at least in the mainstream media -- is a looming corporate bond crisis, which is what prompted the Fed's cut last week and nothing else - most people don't understand that. While the 2008 GFC was caused by the failure of the big banks, which found themselves in a credit crunch, the incoming corporate bond crisis is caused by another credit crunch: for twelve years, billions of free money were pumped into the system, which incited thousands of listed companies -- including the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Cisco and Google -- to borrow that money to buy back their own shares and pay dividends while at the same time issuing massive amounts of high-risk bonds, the holders of which are now scrambling to sell back knowing full well that those companies are now likely to have to default on their loans as a result of their drastically reduced earnings and associated liquidity issues. On this note I highly recommend the following article: www.theguardian.com/...

So the system is finally broken folks, and the big culprit here is the Fed, which should have started to raise interest rates once the economy had recovered from the GFC. How are they going to get us out of the hole in which we now find ourselves is anyone's guess. They obviously cannot lower interest rates much more, and in any case at this stage this would have little effect owing to the nature of the crisis. I am also not sure what the much talked about "helicopter money" could do to resolve anything. Meanwhile there is no safe place to park our money, other than in a low-interest savings account (and perhaps gold), the spread of the CV continues to amplify and to top it all we are now dealing with an oil crisis, we also have thousands of short-sellers who are accelerating the crash, and in a few months we will have an election whose results are now all but far from certain. It certainly looks like this time the S... really hit the fan. Best of luck to everyone.
not me and I am 44% cash and probably increasing as my cash is stagnant and equities going down.
Companies can borrow at a lower rate now to refinance their debt. And I'm sure many of them are already.
@fadi999 During a liquidity crunch loans won't be made and there will rolling waves of companies going bankrupt. The easy money loans the last few years were used for stock buy backs now it is time to pay the piper.
This virus has simply become the catalyst, that was necessary to
possibly trigger the major stock market correction that was predicted.

From the look's of it, I would not be surprised
to see a 25% - %40 market correction in
many sectors.

If some think, this is almost over think again ! 25% is a minimum drop
that's going to take place, the question his, what happens after?
are we going to see a V shape recuperation afterwards,
or a very slow 1-2% grind up that will take months..., years to recuperate our losses.
Monday early morning US time

Oil plunged nearly 30% in a chaotic market opening, with main crude benchmarks Brent and WTI both trading below $35 a barrel amid fears of an all-out price war following the collapse of an output cut deal between Russian and OPEC.

Asian markets opened with a massive gap on Monday, with Brent falling nearly 30 percent to $31.38 per barrel within seconds, while WTI dipped below $28 – the lowest since 2016 – before bouncing back slightly.

Oil is opening down 20%. I don't recall ever seeing a drop like this. pic.twitter.com/4zsNwt24ud — Robert Rapier (@RRapier) March 8, 2020

On Saturday, Saudi Arabia announced a stunning discount of $6 to $8 per barrel to its customers in Asia, Europe, and the US – and said it would boost oil production despite the global economic slowdown and crude demand drop.

--- There goes the US Shale Oil Industry --- Here today gone tomorrow ---

Asia plunges, European & US futures collapse as panicked investors seek safe haven from perfect storm ravaging markets - US Markets down 4.8% - DOW down 1250 pts

Good Morning and Welcome to Black Eye Monday
I am not sure we have a health crisis yet anyway but it seems like we are most definitely having a financial one based on fear if a health one. Seems like the fear is worst than the disease at least so far.
xamd profile picture
The point is to NOT have a health crisis. You have to head it off at the pass so to speak. Really the only way to do that with this pandemic is to be very strong and draconian. Look you are going to have a little financial hurt now, and lots of people say the market needed correction ANYWAY, but would you rather have Millions dead, health care overload etc AND a financial crisis, a depression, not a little pain?
This thing is 10 times more lethal than regular flu and among certain demographics 20 per cent. Yes people panic, but... I guess that is a sorry side effect.
DKB2 profile picture
A repost but I think it conveys a needed message.

The COVID 19 pandemic is the equivalent of war, with each and every one of us on the front line.
As in any conflict, intelligence on the enemies strength and disposition is critical. It is by means of the COVID 19 tests that we gain this information.
How shall we marshal our resources if we do not know the where and how to supply?
The only recourse will be an all out offensive of quarantine that denies the enemy its sustenance...us. Quite the analogy of scorched earth tactics used favorably against the invading Nazis in the Ukraine theater of WW2.

Good luck and Happy Trails...
It is getting worse. Pre market -900 and oil -$8.00
Patience is a virtue, as patience is the investor's single most powerful ally. Cash $$$ in hand, waiting for the Algorithms to kick in Monday as the computer driven panic selling continues to present great buying opportunities for the foreseeable future. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.
swaps profile picture
Suddenly the globalists are reluctant to mingle with the global population...having an impact on global business for sure.
geologist profile picture
Stop showing FEAR inciting CoronaVirus figures unless Flu numbers are also shown as a common sense relative gauge so people can have a sense of what the numbers mean.

According to CDC data through Feb. 22, this year there have been at least 32 million cases of flu in the United States, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 flu deaths.

US Current CV cases = 464 cases & 19 deaths. Notify me when we reach 32,000,000 cases & 18,000 deaths.
swaps profile picture
CNN reported 80,000 flu deaths in the U.S. the winter of 2017-2018...Where was the liberal media hysteria over so many old people falling off Social Security rolls?
xamd profile picture
How did you get to be a geologist when you didnt pass 8th grade algebra?
Look, I ll do the first problem for you. As of Sunday March 8 2020 3802 people have died of 109648 infected with Corona Virus. You divide 3802 by 109 648 and multiply by 100 and get 3.46 per cent died of those infected.

Now regular flu. 18 000 divided by 32 000 000 is...... .056 per cent.
Now you do the second equation. If 32 000 000 million are infected with corona virus at 3.46 per cent rate of death how many are going to die?? A lot more than 18 000 friend. Get it?
xamd profile picture
the "liberal media". Ok, I ll take your bait. What did the nazi media and breitbart say about so many falling off the social security. You probably know.
Added to a long-term position on BAC at $25.25. My cost basis is much lower than that, but I feel that BAC is a future $50 stock with a dividend of $1.50. This is how you build wealth, imo.
@Feckless191 BAC is more likely to go back to the single digits, rate cuts alone are going to kill earnings
Idkmuch profile picture
@TheBoringAnalyst two drillion dollar portfolios are tickign time bombs , idk why people love them
@TheBoringAnalyst .. And you are on the record. I don't think $30 Billion of annual earnings is going to disappear. They need to keep making smart loans, and they will continue to be profitable, in my opinion.
Trad355 profile picture
Bad news after bad news. I havent seen anything like it. Its scary
The media will try to hold onto this one for a while but unfortunately for them this flu variant doesn't affect anyone but old people. This won't last long.
@Coney Island Nick Yeah you have been saying that since January, keep buying those dips.
xamd profile picture
@Coney Island Nick
oh man people today on SA... You know Nick, that is what they said about AIDS, "oh it only affects gays and junkies, what do i care. It aint me"
xamd. I think it IS you!!! Go back to watching the Clinton Crime Network.
Convoluted profile picture
TIP: suppose you own 10 stocks or ETFs-some folks may own 50 or more. But, the issue is that hedge management using retail platforms is all but impossible. Even if you are at ease with selling calls/buying puts, you simply are not fast enough. Trying to manage such a situation will leave you exhausted and overwhelmed.

Consider using a LETF that aligns with the majority of your underlying positions. So, you accept that your long positions will drop. The idea is to offset some portion, avoiding the quest to achieve parity. Note that you don’t have to match dollar for dollar moves on a real time basis. You have plenty of time to tactically utilize your hedge. And, you’ll do a much better job if you shut out everything but your hedge instrument. Now, that’s not to say that you can’t use short calls, but managing a diverse set of short calls can be likewise overwhelming. Again, it doesn’t matter how proficient you are, the information coming at you is exponentially fragmented.

For example, a $1M portfolio allocating 50k to TVIX a few weeks ago, or utilizing DRIP if the portfolio had a lot of energy, went a long way to hedging the risk. A final thought is that you must go big early. The classic mistake is to try a small short position to ‘see what happens.’ NO! You have to bring out the sledgehammer.

Suppose you were somewhat prepared and you’ve got some very profitable long puts sprinkled around. When to collect? You might cash some in, and replace with some number of LETF shares. The point of the comment is to try to put yourself in the best mental approach-eliminate the necessity of constantly trying to solve simultaneous equations under duress.
At what cost if you are wrong?
The biggest problem is 12000000 Illegals in USA, who are entitled to the same hospital care as an American citizen. Hence, already critical shortage of bed's in ICU units. Gratis, PC politicians with their idiotic Sanctuary cities programs. And it's going to become much worse.
DKB2 profile picture
Easy solution...wave the magic executive order and grant mass amnesty and award legal status...voila! no more problem.

Happy Trails...
Mass amnesty is radical, but it might work better for all of us.
More folks can get insurance, which will reduce those hyper-expensive ER visits. Might everyone be happier and healthier?

Well, almost everyone, except the trump troop.
Trump's plan is for those folks to go to work sick.
Even the staff at Mar-a-Lago.
That's what G.W. Bush suggested..they ate him alive. After the election, it won't matter who wins, they will be opening the flood gates.. immigration has fallen way behind.. "Massive immigration and massive inflation" is what eventually happen.
littlecubbie2019 profile picture
I’m a buyer of Dow, xom, mo and t. I’ll also take the small o raise.
Is there anybody left in the world who isn't long XOM? In many ways, this stock is starting to resemble the characteristics - in reverse - of the heavily-shorted TSLA.
depueman profile picture
Honestly, at 6.94% I am licking my chops. Haven't bought, but sure am interested.
It will be down further on Monday and probably further in a week. Patience.
It's not rocket science. Covid 19, as things currently stand, is a virus without a cure. As has been previously said, Spanish Flu killed approx 55 million people albeit in less well equipped times. Whist there is so much unknown about it those involved in the fight against it have to err on the side of paranoia. Better to overreact than under react. This will provide a great investment opportunity further down the road but for now I'm keeping my powder dry, waiting and watching.
We can't cure the flue either or the cold, We can reduce affects and fight it off with a lucky guess of vacine and we treat the symptoms. get the facts right.
About time
Ray Lopez profile picture
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/... Today (Sunday 3/8/20) is the first day that total new CHN Covid-19 cases have not increased. So Monday should be green for worldwide stock markets
Wrong ours doubled over night and we just shut down 12 cities
I live in Lucca italy
Fade every rally until triple bottom confirmed. It might be a while.
@porch441 Exactly, market has finally turned and the vast majority of traders are buy the dippers that have never experienced a bear market...
Its turned for a for now maybe for the next year but nkt forever
@Curiosity$ And you still think that the Great Depression lasted 4 years...

MORE neurotic, crazed, over the top FEAR. "This is a pandemic." SO? There were many far worse viruses and pandemics, with no drugs or ineffective drugs, no warnings to wipe surfaces to kill the virus (which only is viable for 2 hours), and we didn't have any drugs more than very crude, outdated ones that were not even widely used.

GILD, Moderna, and several other drugs companies are developing cures and vaccines.
GILD's Remdesivir has been allowed to jump to Phase 3, and is already being used in other countries. That drug was originally developed for Ebola, against which it was not very effective.

However, Remdesivir went through all trials and is safe, virtually without side effects. The FDA should get off their constipated arses, and simply approve it.

What you state in your own post works against your thesis.

"the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is well over 300 — 19 of whom have died, mostly in Washington state. At least 14 people who died were associated with one nursing home near Seattle"

Wow! 300 people in the entire US, with 19 deaths, mostly in Seattle metro area, because of all the tourists leftist Washington State that has allowed endless immigration.from China for decades.

And I would place a big bet that when the Corona virus broke out in Wuhan, they were immediately flying to Seattle for supposed safety, when if was THEY who brought the virus into Washington.

Further point. The majority that died, who were in ONE nursing home.where so much contact between employees and the residents were like a breeding ground, spreading the virus to these poor, aging people with a lowered immune response due to their age and illnesses. Pity those poor seniors whose lives were ended because of a leftist Governor, Mayor and the liberal political figures behind them, who should be yanked out of office, as THEY and their leftist ideology provided the pathway to the US.

You state that US confirmed cases are over 300, with 19 deaths. Did you bother to research how many people are infected with yearly influenza and have died? The numbers are staggering and make the number of Corona cases here look like a few crumbs. And illustrate how out-of-touch with reality so many in the US and the world are

The US lets in more immigrants than ANY country in the world, and dwarf the number of immigrants allowed in to all other countries in the world combined. Our borders should be sealed, and NO planes should be allowed to travel to the US from a large number of countries. If something that sensible had been followed, we would not have any cases here.

Ponder over that.
TruffelPig profile picture
@Technosemi - this qualifies as a very very dumb comment. Why approving a drug fast if it doesn't work. 300 confirmed cases - only 2000 people tested.....bla bla. Stick to semi conductors - I hope you know more there.
Agbug profile picture
The numbers look like a few crumbs? For now, maybe. The latest reports indicate 70 of 180 staff members are exhibiting symptoms, and several previous resident deaths were likely due to the virus. That puts the fatality rate at about 30 of 120 residents, so far.

Too bad the public health system of the United States didn't adequately prepare for this to occur with test kits available to identify outbreaks before they spiral out of control.

The thing about senior care facilities is they are visited by many individuals that then visit other senior care facilities. Three additional facilities are now reporting infections in the Seattle area.

Blaming "Leftists" isn't going to put this genie back in the bottle.
DexterDude profile picture
Hmmm interesting. China has very tight borders, much more ethically homogeneous then the USA, yet shuttered 10 cities affecting millions of inhabitants during the Lunar New Year Celebration: essentially a self inflicted gun shot wound (economically speaking). One would think they might know something more about the threat since they are at ground zero then we do, safely sequestered 6800 miles away (L.A. to Wuhan). But rather then focus on this threat, lets seal the borders which will immediately protect us... right? Tell me you thought this through... How many air craft should be grounded? How many airports closed to international and domestic flights? Give me a number please. I hope you realize and agree airports are part of the border.
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