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Week 11 MDA Breakout Forecast: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge



  • Four new Breakout Stocks for Week 11 with better than 10% short-term upside potential.
  • The MDA Breakout portfolio is up +37.51% YTD compared to the S&P 500 -8.00% YTD in the first 10 weeks of 2020, even including when Momentum Gauges are negative.
  • This Week 10: the portfolio lost an average -4.00% led by gains in ZYXI +11.14% peaking at +19.76% midweek.
  • The streak of weekly selections gaining over 10% in less than 4 or 5 trading days continues to be 121 out of 147 trading weeks (82.31%).
  • The Momentum Gauges closed Friday after-hours at Negative 98 and Positive 8 since the negative signal on Feb. 24th. Use caution as MDA breakout selections may be impacted by severely negative conditions.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Value & Momentum Breakouts. Get started today »


The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 5 years. This subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now reached 147 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing.

In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request into 2020, I now generate 4 selections each week, 2 Dow 30 picks, and a separate article for Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks. I now provide 6 different ways to beat the S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.

Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week remains at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10% gainers in a single week. More than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017.

2020 YTD Breakout Portfolio Returns

The Breakout Picks are up +37.51% worst case, buy/hold, do nothing, equal weighted returns through Week 10 compared to the S&P 500 -8.56% over the same period. The Best case average weekly returns are +11.97% and worst case 3.75% YTD as shown below. These returns include trading during the Negative Momentum Gauge signal weeks which increases risk of declines. Week 10 closed with an average loss of -4 % compared to a gain of 0.61% for the S&P 500.

(Source: Value & Momentum Breakouts)

These breakout picks skew highly positive for high frequency short-term gains in less than 5 days as documented over the past 3 years. I have removed the best case (High YTD +119.73%) gains from the chart below next week as it begins to distort the chart between the worst case gains and the S&P 500 returns.

If you are looking for a great community to apply proven financial models with picks ranging from short term breakouts to long term value and forensic selections, please consider joining our 500+ outstanding members at Value & Momentum Breakouts

  • Subscribe now and learn many new models and techniques for short and long term trading success.
  • Members receive active trading alerts and live stock picks well ahead of published articles.
  • Now into our 4th year, this rapidly growing service has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 every single year!

    See what members are saying now - Click HERE

This article was written by

JD Henning profile picture

JD Henning is a Finance PhD, MBA, investment adviser, fraud examiner and certified anti-money laundering specialist with more than 30 years trading and investing stocks and other securities. JD runs Value & Momentum Breakouts where he identifies identify breakout signals and breakdown warnings using technical and fundamental analysis.

Signals from his proprietary Momentum Gauges® not only alert subscribers of market changes, but the strength of markets for short term breakouts or breakdown warnings across 11 different sectors. Top stock and ETF selections use technical and fundamental systems in proven financial studies. Value & Momentum Breakouts is the place to build your own optimal portfolio mix with a community of like-minded investors and traders. Features include a Premium Portfolio, bull/bear ETF strategy, morning updates and an active chat room. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long ERY, FNGD, SPXS, SPXU. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (3)

JD Henning profile picture
This has been a day so far for the inverse funds... ERY +51%, FNGD +13%, SPXS +15% SPXU +15% and others UVXY +33%, TZA +19% etc... still strong negative Momentum Gauge™ signals.
Anyone who bought or is buying today has more guts than I do.
Bee202 profile picture
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