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Tesla Q1 Push Faces Major Uncertainty

Mar. 09, 2020 1:28 PM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)244 Comments
Bill Maurer profile picture
Bill Maurer


  • Europe Q1 2020 registrations not doing well against Q4 2019.
  • How has coronavirus impacted Shanghai Model 3 and Model Y ramps?
  • Economic worries and gas price declines don't help EV shift.

The final three weeks of a quarter generally are the most important ones for electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). As we've seen in the past, this is the time where the company has a large push to deliver as many vehicles as possible. With the stock price having soared this year on hopes related to massive growth in the name, this quarter's push is likely to be the most uncertain one we've seen in some time.

The Tesla bull camp continues to spread the notion that the company is production constrained. In Q4 2019, the company produced 104,891 vehicles and delivered 112,095 vehicles, both being quarterly records. The situation was helped by expiring tax benefits in both the US and the Netherlands. Those bullish on the name said that other European markets, primarily the UK, would offset the Netherlands losses in Q1 2020. Unfortunately, with two months of estimated registration data in, the numbers don't look good.

(Source: Tesla Motors Club Europe, seen here)

Here's the really interesting part. Even if you want to use year over year numbers, February 2020 is only up a little more than 100 units over last year, and this is despite the extra day in the month this year. Also, last year's February was the first month where deliveries started ramping in Europe. A good number of these countries didn't start getting the Model 3 until a week or two into the month, and the UK/Sweden didn't get any in the month.

Data we do have through the first few days of March for Norway, the Netherlands, and Spain shows a similar picture to the one above. For the first six days, there were 368 Model 3 registrations, compared to 1,735 in the first six days of December 2019. In addition to a lot fewer units being registered for these

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Bill Maurer profile picture
I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have been active in the markets for several years, and am primarily focused on long/short equities. I hold a Bachelor of Science Degree from Lehigh University, where I double majored in Finance and Accounting, with a minor in History. My major track focused on Investments and Financial Analysis. While at Lehigh, I was the Head Portfolio Manager of the Investment Management Group, a student group that manages three portfolios, one long/short and two long only. I have had two internships, one a summer internship at a large bank, and another helping to manage the Lehigh University Endowment for nearly a year. Disclaimer: Bill reminds investors to always do their own due diligence on any investment, and to consult their own financial adviser or representative when necessary. Any material provided is intended as general information only, and should not be considered or relied upon as a formal investment recommendation.

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Comments (244)

Tesla recently announced that their first Model Y was their one millionth vehicle. You have to wait to receive a vehicle ordered now, so they seem to be selling everything they produced. Subtract total sales to the end of 2019 from 1 million and you get 1,000,000 - 894,000 = 106,000 vehicles produced and sold this quarter and we are only half-way through March. Seems like they are on track for another record quarter. That is crazy, because the winter quarter is usually slow for all car companies and the coronavirus is hurting the world economy... but, despite that double whammy it looks like they are going to hit a home run with another record quarter.
"Subtract total sales to the end of 2019 from 1 million and you get 1,000,000 - 894,000 = 106,000 vehicles produced and sold this quarter..."

And Sold?
doggydogworld profile picture
@jimroth - they'd produced 920k cars by YE19, not 894k.
Perhaps I am no longer reading the typical American driver's mentality. I always believed most people bought cars that needed to be all purpose. That is, equally capable as commuters or for long distance traveling. Second, that people tended to buy vehicles that fit most possible use scenarios i.e. ability to tow or haul bicycles, roof racks to carry an occasional sheet of plywood, options such as music centers that also offer traffic, GPS options or perhaps 4 wheel drive in Northern regions. Certainly a pickup buyer would likely want to think his truck could tow a significant load even if it never happens.

What puzzles me is Tesla's are not as convenient outside of the city, have less range, and cost more than comparable ICE cars. So far, batteries have many limitations such as being adverse to cold weather, high sustained speeds, slow charging (far worse with level 2 chargers), steep mountain gradients or towing. An ICE drivers fills up and most can bank on 300 miles or range or more under most conditions. A BEV driver can rarely, if ever, know how much range exists under varying conditions.

One poster suggested many BEV's are vanity purchases, not for mainstream duty in an average American family. Certainly, one cannot attach a hitch to a Model X and expect any sort of usable towing range unless its across town. A video shows a Model X towing a 4500 lb boat on a level Interstate in Florida. Range? 85 miles before a charge was needed. Not too practical for typical fishermen.

So the question is, if BEV's cannot meet ICE capability, when will demand level off and begin to fall off?
Andreas Hopf profile picture
Much has to do with the "wealth effect". That apparently is now coming to a premature end.

Also, huge subsidies for a 2nd household car are very enticing to the upper middle class, many of that cohort wetting their pants for fear of climate change.

Then consider all other so-called "discerning" consumption and "life as exhibition" patterns. For example, research shows that the allegedly health and balance seeking upper cohorts actually don't eat more healthy, as they prefer cooking shows and Instagram "foodie feeds" instead of actually cooking. It is simply an issue of self-enforced self-betrayal in order to curate a feeble fleeting existence.

See how severely people at large are affected by asocial media/internet culture since around 2001, with rising suicide rates to boot.
Andreas Hopf - Thanks for the insights. I always knew some who are upper class liked driving a Mercedes but still looked for "Blue Light Specials" at K-Mart. I see many Porsche Panamera's at Goodwill. So I agree that subsidies for a second car is appealing. Only question is when will that demand tap out?
Andreas Hopf profile picture
"Only question is when will that demand tap out?"

As long as wealthy greenwashers feel the urge to indulge conspicuous consumption to cleanse their feeble souls, matching governmental powers will see to their fulfilment.
Bill Maurer profile picture
Update: UK plug in grant cut by 1/7th to 3000 pounds. Also, 50k pound price limit put in place.

Shouldn't have any impact on Q1 sales but limits part of the bull case for the rest of this year.
Andreas Hopf profile picture
Model 3 SR+ starts at £39,000. Model 3 LR starts at £47,000.

Tesla's UK sales will therefore not be affected.
Davewmart profile picture
@Andreas Hopf

I dunno if the legislation allows add ons or not in the £50k limit.

I suspect that they will have a generous interpretation, so that MPs can fill their green boots.

But there could be some effect at the margins if not.
Andreas Hopf profile picture
The way I understand it it is like the Canada trick; base version is eligibility criterium.

That bloke at the helm is not stupid.
Think Long Term profile picture
Uncertainty??? It’s a 100% certain fact the earnings will be crap just like always. Accounting trickery not gonna save this anymore.
Preliminary estimates for MIC CHINA BEVs Jan/Feb Q1-2020
Incomplete and adjusted estimates from several sources - view as indicative only
Some sources only report Top 10 / 20 sales numbers - Totals will be way out

(First) 2019 Q4 sales results
Tesla Model 3 (Estimate) 6200
BAIC EU-Series 35,844
SAIC Baojun E-Series EV 22,797
GAC Aion S 18,215
BAIC EC-Series 12,997
Chery eQ 9786
Wiema EX5 NA
Benteng B30 NA
BYD Yuan / S2 EV 7060
SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV 7044
Great Wall Ora R1 EV 5922
Changan Eado EV 4315
Geely Emgrand EV 2804
BYD Qin Pro EV 1623
BYD e5 906
BAIC EX-Series 820
JAC iEV E-Series 512
Xiaopeng Xpeng G3 505
Hozon Neta N01 NA
GAC Toyota Leahead iA5 NA
TOTAL 142,064
Q4 Mth Avg 47,350

NA means Not Available and Uncertain - eg I am sure NIO had deliveries in Q4
Do note new GAC Aion S at 18,215
Does not include Imports except for Q4 Tesla Model 3

Q1 2020 - apologies for formatting difficulties.
Model Jan Feb YtD Q1
Tesla Model 3 (Estimates) 3183 3200 6383
BAIC EU-Series 1966 979 2945
SAIC Baojun E-Series EV 1417 846 2263
GAC Aion S 2648 1433 4081
BAIC EC-Series N/A N/A N/A
NIO ES6 1493 671 2164
Chery eQ N/A 470 470
Wiema EX5 1027 567 1594
Benteng B30 2161 371 2532
BYD Yuan / S2 EV 1202 497 1699
SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV 3068 N/A 3068
Great Wall Ora R1 EV 1295 N/A 1295
SAIC MG eZS EV 1429 N/A 1429
Changan Eado EV N/A N/A N/A
Geely Emgrand EV N/A N/A N/A
BYD Qin Pro EV 1690 1429 3119
BYD e5 N/A N/A N/A
BAIC EX-Series N/A N/A N/A
JAC iEV E-Series N/A N/A N/A
Xiaopeng Xpeng G3 N/A N/A N/A
NIO EXS8 N/A 36 36
BYD e2 1028 N/A 1028
Hozon Neta N01 1001 N/A 1001
GAC Toyota Leahead iA5 1236 N/A 1236
TOTAL 25,844 10,499 36,343
Q1 Mth Avg 18,520

Comments: The Monthly Avg has fallen to 39% of Q4 2019
N/A means Not Available - There may or may not have been production and deliveries
Tesla deliveries adjusted below recently reported Production numbers
Tesla Model 3 deliveries are likely above Q4 deliveries already
GAC Aion S still manages #3 spot
NIO ES6 at #6 a very impressive result
Remarkable effort by SAIC #1 Brand x 3 models 6,760 units
How are any cars being delivered under these conditions?

My Q1'20 estimate for M3 and Total Tesla deliveries in China?
I have no clue whatsoever - none! ;-)

For a February 2019 China comparison ev-sales.blogspot.com/...
I assume, most customers in Europe placed their orders for March delivery prior to Corona breakout in Europe. So delivery numbers in Europe for Q1 might not be too bad and again backend loaded. Tesla will not let customers get out of their existing contracts.
The big problem will be filling the order books for Q2 deliveries ....
truwa profile picture
The most reliable delivery estimate is in from #TroyTeslike on twitter. Looks like around 99K total deliveries this quarter, 27K deliveries to Europe.

Amid coronavirus and seasonality this looks like a very good result for Tesla.
As I outlined in my other post already, most orders for Q1 deliveries have been place prior to corona outbreak in Europe. Hence I agree that numbers for Q1 deliveries will not be too bad.
The break is currently in for new orders that supposed to generate Q2 deliveries ....
Europe general trends
- Austria 10.9% decrease YoY of new passenger car registrations in February 2020
- With BEVs 41% increase on January 2020
- some lower Brand sales numbers are close estimates based on ytd calcs.

BEV Sales - Austria - 2020-02
Model Value
Tesla Model 3 219
Renault ZOE 182
BMW i3 BEV 57
Audi e-tron 52
Škoda Citigo-e 48
Volkswagen e-Golf 48
Kia Soul EV 41
Opel Corsa-e 40
Peugeot e-208 35
Hyundai Kona Electric 29
Hyundai Ioniq 28
Nissan Leaf 25
Volkswagen e-up! 25
Seat Mii Electric 25
Tesla S/X 24
Kia Niro EV 16
Nissan e-NV200 6
Others 81
TOTAL = 981
January = 695

#1 Tesla units 243 is up from 70 in January
Q4 was 400 in total - Very Low on-hand for sale inventory

Renault ZOE already 20 up on Q4'19 total, possibly could overtake Tesla M3
Combined Up!, Mii, Citigo total 98 units comes 3rd similar to other Europe countries.
Hyundai Kona/Ionic, BMW i3, Nissan Leaf, Audi E-Tron are fairly flat on Q4.
Whereas the (newish) Kia Soul, Opel Corsa-e and Peugeot e-208 are strong new entrants.
A mixed result for Brands but overall the Competition is up again in this Low Sales country.

My rough Q1 Tesla estimate is ~600, up 200 on Q4'19.

Refs : www.statistik.at/...
Europe general trends - Tesla deliveries are up on Jan. units while BEVs trended down
Switzerland BEV 'flat' in Feb Q2 (reported numbers like these can vary depending on sources)
BEV Sales - Switzerland - 2020-02
Model Value
Renault ZOE 267
Tesla Model 3 80
BMW i3 BEV 56
Nissan Leaf 44
Mercedes-Benz EQC 43
Audi e-tron 27
Jaguar I-Pace 27
Porsche Taycan 21
Tesla Model X 16
Tesla Model S 11
Citroën C-Zero 5
Mitsubishi i-MiEV 1
Feb Total 598
Jan Total 615

Tesla units down 95 on January - small gain in S/X
For Sale Now Inventory relatively high
- S/X 56 - with stock from Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar.
- Model 3 only 10 - stock late Feb, Mar,
Therefore likely all pre-Ordered stock arrived already.
My rough Q1 Tesla estimate is ~750, down 780 on Q4'19.

Renault ZOE is increases by 50, is #1 with 477 units ytd, above normal trends. Tesla usually catches the ZOE in the 3rd month but maybe not this time if Renault increases supply as they have elsewhere in Europe so far. Porsche Taycan significant lift sells 21 units 3.4 Million Euros! Otherwise typical boring Switzerland. (joking)

My rough Q1 Tesla estimate is ~750 down 780 on Q4'19 - all of Europe ~17,000 +/-
10 Mar. 2020
Production was 100% for US market at end of Q4 and that's why the EU lacked inventory in the first 2 months of the year.
China output goes to preorders, they don't have much of a problem at all.
Production will be up sequentially 15-20k units and sales a bit bellow that as they need to boost inventory after draining it hard in Q4.
If coronavirus is not contained soon, their problems will be much smaller than what other car makers will see.
And don't assume that all Model 3 production capacity will keep making Model 3, some might shift to Model Y.
Tesla Motors Club Europe table

I'm still content with my 17K for Q1 +/- margin of error

UK to be #1 in Tesla sales.
JBeans profile picture
I think the approach of looking for softness by analyzing countries and accounting periods due to chunkiness of deliveries or their timing during the quarter has been done plenty before, never panned out, should be retired. I suppose the value is to provide a slightly leading indicator of Tesla's decline, but that has yet to occur.

More valuable would be to analyze structural reasons for decline, of which none are evident. I haven't seen a seeking alpha piece on the utter failure of the Bolt, I-PACE, and eTRON in the US. Have seen stories that cherry pick particular months they do well in Europe when Tesla ships have not yet arrived.

Tesla's Model Y is set to become a big story in the next 7 days as scheduled deliveries to consumers begin in the US. Looks to be another hit from Tesla, even as the current (low production volume, unprofitable) offerings from GM, Jaguar, and Audis languish—and future models are delayed further.

As long as Tesla can keep any Q1 loss below $248M (always the lowest quarter), then report any profit at all in Q2—that will merit inclusion into the S&P 500. (If the stock is in the $687+ range it will also qualify as an S&P Top 50 market cap, in fact.)

S&P inclusion becomes a whole new ballgame. Even though it won't represent more than a (from one estimate) 6% demand uptick, it bakes in a certain amount of stability as it is bought and held by index funds and pensions.
doggydogworld profile picture
@JBeans - Carmakers are directing EV production away from the US and toward Europe to help meet 95 g/km. US deliveries have been pushed back (e.g. BMW ix3, Mercedes EQC from 2020 to 2021) and some will never come here at all (ID.3). Even Ford plans to send most Mach E production to Europe.

Europe will be interesting. The US is Tesla vs. an empty net.
dmce profile picture
@doggydogworld - Do you believe that if BMW/Merc/etc. had a less constrained supply of batteries that they would be selling their EV's in the US in 2020 vs. letting Tesla get a strong foothold with uncontested sales of Model Y?
doggydogworld profile picture
@dmce - I think 'battery constrained' is mostly BS to cover for carmaker delays and demand issues. Still, I don't think the Germans would try that hard to sell EVs in the US even if they were drowning in cells.

InsideEVs had an article the other day that BMW's dealers told them not to bother with the 74 kWh iX3. They are apparently interested in the i4, but that's 18 months away. Without regulations there is very little US demand outside the EV enthusiast market, which Tesla owns. And $1.50 gas will only reduce demand.
doubleE profile picture
Didn’t you write this same article in q1 2019 ? The specifics shift but the overall theme is the same; demand apocalypse.
Bill Maurer profile picture

And how did Q1 2019 turn out? Terrible, despite pumper in chief Elon insisting a profit was possible.
@Bill Maurer

Elon, the plumper pumper?
doubleE profile picture
"And how did Q1 2019 turn out?"

Turned out pretty OK. Last I checked, the stock price today is up 200% from Jan 1 2019.
It should be no surprise to anyone that the current Coronavirus situation is going to have large impact on the Global economy as a whole and the impact will be felt across all industries. Realistically a lot of companies will be missing 2020_Q1 Targets and probably Q2 also. Tesla was smart to strengthen it's balance sheet when it did by raising money through a stock sale.
So Tesla is production constrained. European sales suck - why Tesla even bother to send cars to Europe if it can sell all of them here? Why load all those diesel-powered stinking to the high heaven ships if there is a huge line of people dying to get Model 3 in the USA.
I am confused. Did Musk lie again? But that can not be....
European sales suck? Not here in Switzerland. On a recent trip from Zürich to Davos, about every 10th car coming towards us was a Tesla.

Regarding the point made above about delivery lead-times in Europe, I can only speak from my own experience. I ordered an M3 in mid-Feb and it will be delivered to me on the 25th March.
Andreas Hopf profile picture
"On a recent trip from Zürich to Davos, about every 10th car coming towards us was a Tesla."

With currently 4,600,000 passenger vehicles registered in Switzerland, and Tesla only having sold 13,500 3, S and X in that country since 2013 (0.3% of the total), I find that hard to believe.

Maybe there was a Branch Elonian enthusiast meeting nearby?
Davewmart profile picture
@Andreas Hopf

You forget that Tesla fans are visionary.

Whether that makes for safe driving is a question which should not be asked.
Bill Maurer profile picture
And the San Jose Sharks just shut down home games for 3 weeks.

If Tesla's factory closes...ouch.
dmce profile picture
@Bill Maurer - The Sharks games were cancelled because Santa Clara County decreed that all mass gatherings of 1000+ people are prohibited for several weeks.

- There are no bans on businesses in Santa Clara County or elsewhere
- Fremont is in Alameda County, not Santa Clara County
- Santa Clara County has 43 coronavirus cases, Alameda County has 2

Bill Maurer profile picture

You do realize that the Fremont factory is just about 15 miles from the edge of the county ban?

And things can get worse. A week ago, there were no bans.
dmce profile picture
Of course I do. I live 25 miles from the factory - in Santa Clara County.

Italy has a quarantine on all 60M inhabitants. But Italians are still allowed to go to work unless they are sick.

Your search for potential Tesla negative scenarios is on full display with this one.
RE: "there's been fewer Performance Model 3s being delivered"

In the NL a massive surge of 1200 Model 3 Perf were registered delivered in the final 10 days of December. Maybe that was a pull-forward issue which ate up all the generic demand for the P? And or fleet buyers grabbed most of them and are now being sold on to individual customers directly at a better price/lease deal than Tesla can offer today due to the 2020 BIK changes?

EU-EVS data tells us that M3-Perf sales in NL surged from 180/Qtr up to 1364 in Q4. 5.5% avg up to 8.4% of total M3 sales. While NO sold none. IOW Tesla sold 8 Quarters or 2 Years worth of normal demand in the Netherlands of the Performance Model 3 in one Quarter alone.

That's got to have an impact somewhere and possibly beyond only the NL if fleet buyers can ship to other countries nearby easy enough.

And the same for the M3 LR-AWD version which sold a year's worth of normal demand in NL in Q4.

RE: "... and the Netherlands is seeing a very high percentage of Standard Range plus variants right now."

fwiw the SR+ sales in NL Q4 were 4% down in sahre (not much) but the thing is there "deliveries" slowed down rapidly after the 17th Dec to only a few hundred more until Q4 ended. Whereas the LR-AWD deliveries went hard all the way to the end. There may be a some outstanding orders/demand for the SR+ from last year that was not fully met in Q4 with Tesla prioritising the SR+ production/shipping? (thinking out loud, am not sure)

- the simplest explanation is that more SR+ arrived in NL before the rest in late Feb. and so those sales are kicking off first.
Davewmart profile picture

Interestingly one of the reasons companies tend to distribute production rather than relying on centralised megagiga facilities is that if something goes wrong at the home base, you are totally stuffed.

Of course, 'efficient' production chains which are single sourced at any point will be vulnerable too.

The folk in my old job in costs and works will be looking at production chains right now, second and back up sourcing vulnerabilities.

It was always a gamble relying just on a factory in earthquake prone northern California, but then that was the least of Musk's gambles.
doubleE profile picture
Nope, locating the first factory in CA was Tesla’s best decision of the early days. It gave it home field advantage in America’s early adopter state. It was a stroke of pure genius and well worth the risk
doubleE profile picture
Yep, all is well in the world. Same set of clowns are on seeking alpha doing what they do best. Pointlessly analyzing the first two months of the quarter to death.
Bill Maurer profile picture

And yet, we are 9 days into March and No/Neth/Sp. data has shown no major end of quarter push.

Yet bulls continue to push a production constrained narrative.
doubleE profile picture
Who exactly is this “bull” that lives rent free in your head and is pushing a production constrained narrative ?
Bill Maurer profile picture

There are plenty of them that comment on my articles frequently.
Nick Cox profile picture
Actually the news out of China,whre of course the auto sector is in big trouble,is that Tesla has taken a great deal of share of the EV market there away from local producers.
Bill Maurer profile picture
@Nick Cox

That's because most Chinese companies actually shut down in China during February.
dmce profile picture
As did Tesla Shanghai. But they were able to resume operations much more quickly because they are not in Wuhan, where approximately 50% of the Chinese auto industry is located.
Bonaire profile picture
Q1 EV share in 2020 is in a smaller market than Q4 2019. Much smaller. Share is irrelevant. Total units are.
" this time around things look a bit more uncertain than normal "

Even without the rosie queen of coronavirus ramp this Q was always going to be very unusual and uncertain and (imv) was always going miss street expectations by a large margin.

One thing I don't think matters much to Tesla sales nor potential Tesla buyers is:-
"Worse yet for Tesla is that this market panic is sending oil and gas prices down a bit, which doesn't help bolster the argument for electric vehicles."

For 99% of Tesla buyers, especially the 2,3 4 car households, the price of gasoline is never something that impacts their family budgets. If current petrol prices going up or down are an issue then they are not the 'target market' able to afford a Tesla in the first place.

So whether US retail prices are $2.00 or $3.75 a gallon the typical "arguments" for a BEV "theoretically" being cheaper to run and less tail pipe emissions will still apply. The only thing it might change are the tone and focus of current social media forum arguments between both camps - which amounts to a big fat nothing - which makes no difference to sales at all.
So, why does everyone who loves Tesla always talk about the free SC?
Because it's a Meme silly. And the exceptions prove the rule!

It's an ego thing these kind sof 'comments/beliefs' it's not a
"Golly gosh saving this money has stopped us from losing our home and everything else we already own."

OR "Now we can afford to go to the movie theatre again becasue we are not spending all that money on gasoline" ... (nor paying for Superchargers)

Isn't that already obvious? Well it should be. Buyer's Remorse - look it up. Any old excuse is good enough. No one ever makes a bad purchasing decision. Didn't you know?

"Hey bro, I don't need to go to the gas station at all any more! ha ha sucker!"

That they have to sit for HOURS in their car, twiddling their thumbs, in the sun and the snow, in some out of the way dreary insecure Battery Charging station without even a toilet to take a leak in, can't even get a cup of coffee and a donut - or line up for hours during the rush periods - is NEVER part of these conversations.

The people who buy BEVs are not driving big miles, they're filling their gas tank from half full only once every 2-3 weeks. Or they wanted one and so made it their 3rd car in their 4 car garage. But you knew that already, right? (sigh)
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