Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

AMD Highlights Path To The Future

Mar. 11, 2020 7:26 AM ETAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)121 Comments
Bob O'Donnell profile picture
Bob O'Donnell


  • After a gangbuster performance on the stock market for the last several years, Advanced Micro Devices, its CEO Dr. Lisa Su, and its executive leadership team have been under the glare of a lot of media attention recently.
  • Despite the apparent pressure, however, the company keeps coming out swinging and the announcements from last week's Financial Analyst Day indicate that AMD is showing no signs of letting up.
  • All told, it was a very impressive set of announcements that highlights how AMD continues to build on the momentum it started to create a few years back.

After a gangbuster performance on the stock market for the last several years, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), its CEO Dr. Lisa Su, and its executive leadership team have been under the glare of a lot of media attention recently. Despite the apparent pressure, however, the company keeps coming out swinging and the announcements from last week's Financial Analyst Day indicate that AMD is showing no signs of letting up.

In fact, the key takeaway from the event was that the company leadership - and apparently many of the financial analysts who attended - now have even more confidence in the business' future. (The company was even willing to reiterate its guidance for the first quarter, which, given the impact of the coronavirus on many its customers and the tech industry as a whole, was an impressively optimistic statement.)

As a long-time company observer, what particularly stood out to me was that the company has now built up a several-year history of achieving some fairly grand plans based on big decisions it made 4-5 years back. In the past, previous AMD leadership has also talked about big ideas, but frankly, they weren't able to deliver on them. The key difference with the current leadership team is that they are now able to execute on those ideas. As a result, the credibility of their forward-looking plans has gone up significantly.

And what plans they are. The company made a number of important announcements about its future product strategies and roadmaps at the event, most all of which were targeted around high-performance computing, both for CPUs and GPUs. On the GPU roadmap, a particularly noteworthy development was the introduction of a new datacenter-focused GPU architecture named CDNA ("C" for Compute) - an obvious link to the RDNA architecture currently used for PC and gaming-consoled focused GPU designs. Full details around CDNA and specific

This article was written by

Bob O'Donnell profile picture
Bob O’Donnell is the founder and chief analyst of TECHnalysis Research, LLC a technology consulting and market research firm that provides strategic consulting and market research services to the technology industry and professional financial community. You can follow him on Twitter @bobodtech.

Recommended For You

Comments (121)

pohzzer profile picture
"Johns Hopkins predicts 9.6 million people will need to be hospitalized and 3 million will need ICU care" www.dailymail.co.uk/...

As only a tiny fraction of those 3 and 9 million respectively will have access to ICU level care or hospitalization, medications or antibiotics and ICU units themselves will rapidly run out of mitigation medications and antibiotics. Without proper protective gear staff will become infected and as there will be no way to treat them or treat their patients, they will increasingly stay home and self isolate. This will happen nationwide.

Coronavirus deaths will break double digit millions. A similar scenario will play out in Europe, Africa, South America, India and so on.

All stock markets will close no matter Mnuchin's claims to the contrary.

Like I said a month ago the DOW will break 10,000 and AMD will break $10.
@pohzzer - "9.6 million ... hospitalized and 3 million will need ICU

Not really disagreeing, just asking:

Currently reported, we have:

2,238 Active cases
10 Serious/Critical


That seems very far lower than what Johns Hopkins, is predicting, for hospitalized, and ICU?

Maybe because most of the 2,238, are new infections, and might become Serious/Critical later? It still seems like a big dependency.

Also, I know a nurse, who's working 7 days a week, but there are only 3 CV19 patients at the hospital. They are very busy with people with other repository infections, that are worried, and wanted to go to the hospital. There is already, very little free space, in her hospital.
wow&wow profile picture
"Johns Hopkins predicts 9.6 million people will need to be hospitalized"

Assuming every case in China were hospitalized:

5640 times more severe, amazing! Is JH funded by the world's largest zoo? :-)
pohzzer profile picture
@Ponzi Inc - "Not really disagreeing, just asking:
Currently reported, we have:
2,238 Active cases
10 Serious/Critical"

Utterly meaningless when there is little testing being done.

John Hopkins is using standard epidemiological extrapolation procedure based on the actual verified characteristics of the coronavirus, the size, density, mobilization and social practices of the target population and the span of time the coronavirus has been spreading without hindrance in that population. There are models and formulas that take into account all these factors and more. At that they were undoubtedly chose conservative numbers from the range of severity that was computed.

The John Hopkins projections will closely follow what actually occurs with the exception it might be modified by the unexpected speed and magnitude of the social distancing measures that have been imposed over the last 96 hours.
pohzzer profile picture
Where the stock market is headed.

In Italy the number of covid-19 infected requiring ICU level care has consistently been in the 9% to 11% range. With no care nearly all of those would die. Hence a 10% fatality rate.

Italians eat far healthier, exercise far more, and have a far lower incidence of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and so on. Americans will have a substantially higher number of infected requiring ICU level care. In a health care system already overburdened and short of every type of equipment and medication.

Ignore the utterly bullshit 'official' expected 1% fatality rate. The REAL infected fatality rate will rapidly escalate to the 15-20% range. A month out if you get infected and have no access to ICU level care WITH the proper array of mitigation drugs and antibiotics to hand you have a 1 in 5 chance of a fatal outcome. That level of care will not be available to you or 99% of the populace.

That means if you catch the coronavirus there is a 1 in 5 chance you will die.

!00 million OR MORE Americans are expected to contract the coronavirus, so the ACTUAL number of coronavirus deaths will be in the range of 20-30 million.

This will also unfold across Europe, Africa, India and so on.

In America this will unfold in a socially fractured population neck deep in firearms.

The stock market will be crucified.
Did you guys take advantage? Faith? It can move mountains. And make you rich. I bought some additional shares at 37 and some change. Nothing has changed at Headquarters. Su is still in command. The products are superior. Market share is increasing. Metrics are better. Don’t skip the ride. Trust but verify and yes, SEMPER FI !
good luck. I will wait until it gets lower.
I'm probably the most bullish person on AMD that used to have tens of thousands in AMD calls. If you have sold already, probably sell now. You can re-initiate a good position in the low 30s in a couple of months.
same here. lots of AMD leaps, sold for loss. I will re-enter AMD long once market capitulates, were are not there yet (will take months)
wow&wow profile picture
"7nm-based Zen 3 core expected in the next year or so"

Later this year, not next year?
It’s all over! Here’s good FDA grants Roche coronavirus test emergency green light within 24 FDA grants Roche coronavirus test emergency green light within 24 hours”
speak english please.
pohzzer profile picture

What do you mean by 'it's all over'.
pohzzer profile picture
"I'm a businessperson. I don't like having thousands of people around when you don't need them," Trump said. "When we need them, we can get them back very quickly."

"In 2018, the White House eliminated a position on the National Security Council tasked with coordinating a global pandemic response."

"In its latest budget proposal, the Trump administration sought to cut CDC funding by 16%"
kkvakk profile picture
Are you still hanging in there?
I entered stocks here in Europe early on Friday morning.
NYFed is supplying long term loans to banks and Asia have few new cases. The Chinese are synthesizing the effective components of natural remedies which are proving very effective.
As for myself, a mouth rinse or simply inhaling tea-tree oil knocks out bacteria and viruses in the respiratory tract.
I bought the best European bank, Intesa, and also DB for half price, likewise Eni. When New York opened I bought a company I have had my eyes on for some time, ACI, they are the 'new' Visa even though they have been around for 25 years. This is due to real time payments that ACI handles for banks through every payment-method available to consumers.
The governments will spend to keep things afloat, giving helicopter stipends to citizens if needed. This is supportive of stocks in the short term and inflationary further out, (similar to government wartime spending). What do you think, how do you see things now?
pohzzer profile picture
@kkvakk "Are you still hanging in there" "What do you think, how do you see things now?"

I'm fine. Fully cashed out, fully stocked up. Just sitting back watching the end times unfold.

I think with most of the world shutting down thru the summer there will be a substantial diminution of fossil fuel aerosol related global dimming which will shove a hot poker up the arse of the currently unfolding runway global warming. I expect the anticipated arctic 'blue water' event to occur this year, if not totally, near enough to make no difference, followed by the Arctic Ocean rapidly becoming ice free for a month, two months, three months in the following years. I expect within 5 years there will gigaton releases of methane from Siberian continental shelf methane clathrate deposits along with massive releases of CO2 and methane from the millions of square miles of Arctic permafrost regions. Greenland and the west Antarctic will enter a hyper-melting phase.

This is what WILL unfold. It is already baked into the system.

Just as what is currently unfolding with the coronavirus was baked into the system when the characteristics (asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, aerosol, droplet, surface, and up to 30 days transmissible) emerged. I worked out in minutes the broad outline of what was coming.

And who knows what else the coronavirus has up it's sleeve. The Iran strain is obviously substantially more infectious and lethal than the other strains.

The latest thinking on the black death was that it was a coronavirus that had a thirty day incubation period followed by an extremely rapid spread of infection that, once symptoms emerged, killed within 7 days. It had a 50 to 70% fatality rate. It spread across Europe and Asia at an incredible rate, essentially at the rate of a galloping horse, as when symptoms appeared in a town some of the population immediately scattered to the winds traveling as fast as possible trying to out run it while showing no symptoms for up to 30 days and spreading the virus to everyone they came in contact with. That is how it spread from Italy to Scandinavia in a matter or weeks.

Coined in Venice, quarantine in medieval Italian meant 40 days. It was how long an arriving ship had to stay offshore before it was allowed to dock.

Who know if such a coronavirus variant will emerge in the future?

As coronavirus is wreaking havok across the world this spring and summer the Arctic ocean ice will be melting away and by late summer global warming scientists will be sounding the alarm global warming is entering hyper-drive with dire immediate future consequences across the planet.

I'll spare you the details of how and why it will get far worse than even this catastrophic scenario.

My original advice holds, cash out everything and invest it in personal survival. Ideally this would have been done within a couple of days I first posted my advice, but better late than after another 50% or more of one's liquefiable assets melt away.
wow&wow profile picture
"The key difference with the current leadership team is that they are now able to execute on those ideas."

Moving forward, the other key difference is the best winning formula of (TSMC process + AMD design) in 50 years, starting with 7nm Zen 2 in 6/2019!
AMD is going below $30. I already projected long time back.Already very near. I am thinking of legging in.
are you serious? did you predict the dow to be at 20k along with AMD being at 30?
pohzzer profile picture
@NolaModa "are you serious? did you predict the dow to be at 20k along with AMD being at 30?"

I did. On the way to <10K and <$10 respectively.
Autosoft profile picture
Has someone hacked your account...? Yes, AMD is facing an uphill battle with a monopolist but every stock in my SA sidebar is DOWN at least 10%...

This is a macro situation and AMD is still firing on all cylinders... Leaks say the 4000 APUs are due next week... They are still winning supers and even the Chinese EPYC is on the Top 500 - even higher than the ATOS system in France... Hawk will go up on the next list and should be #16...

Zen2 desktop owns DIY\retail and even HEDT workstations though it's more of a low volume market in comparison...

Intel WAS at $62 now it's at $45...

Still long EPYC...
What a day for true believers, no? From 59$ down to 37$ and some change. Covid-19 is the trigger. But it’s only for TRUE BELIEVERS, Times look bleak now but good weather and better times are coming. What has changed with AMD? Great CEO and team on watch, great products and a hungry market will be waiting. I bought some more AMD out of belief that this Phoenix will fly again! SEMPER FI my fellow investors.
AMD is a bit overpriced, bubble burst. I am waiting for it to go back down to 10 dollars before buying
I am starting to believe this will be a long recession. If AMD is at $10, INTC will be $15. At which point, almost all stocks are attractive.
Autosoft profile picture
Silly rabbit.. Intel went from $65 to $45...
if we compare 2010 and now... we are way better off still. Why panic.
When should we panic? When SP500 is at 1500, thats when we panic.
thiseffengeye profile picture
What makes you think it can’t go there?
The technology has evolved over the decade, we process things almost a million times faster than ever before. The surmount of information we receive per day is vast. At that price, everybody wants in. Its literally a once in a life time opportunity.
I'm living my once in a lifetime already. With AMD and CMG's astronomical stock price and the virus spreading I bought puts a couple weeks back. My $9000 investment is at $82,000 and change. Another day like today and it will be over $110k.

Why not embrace whats happening and make money? There will be plenty of time to go long in the future.
pohzzer profile picture
Dow closed -9-99%.
Sooooooo close!
Browser73 profile picture
If you turn on Fox News and chant "it's just the flu" at the TV 3 times all your stock losses are restored. Try it!
thiseffengeye profile picture
Hey, I did it, and Trish Regan materialized in my den, and handed me a duffel bag full of cash.
pohzzer profile picture
VIX now at 73,

What's coming is not just a downturn, it is not just a bear market, it is not just a recession, it is not even just a depression, it is a reset of every aspect of civilization.

That's the good news.

The bad news is the air will clean up diminishing the global dimming effect to near zero, which means runaway global warming will have a red hot poker shoved up it's arse. Last year's weather craziness will be going full on postal. Starting this year.

The current financial system will not withstand what is coming. My advice stands.

"Turn EVERYTHING into cash, do it ASAP, and concentrate on pure physical survival."

Where are you going to put all this cash?

Under your mattress?

Is there a bank you trust to hang on to all of this cash that you wish to generate?

I might suggest paying down debts and perhaps storing up a little extra food around home incase the supermarkets are cleared out by ravenous crowd's effected by this new virus.
pohzzer profile picture

First turn it into cash -> focus on personal survival. I though it was too obvious to state that one would spend that cash on what it would take to hunker down for an extended period of time.

I'm a fan of the DoomsDay Prepper show's produced by National Gographic:


So I am familiar with hunkering down.

There are so many great assets being thrown out with the bathwater these past few days, so to speak.

Hunkering down is good and stocking up your home with essentials is a great plan.

AMD is a great company and they saved my bacon some time ago. What a great job they have done since the turn around manifested itself :)
grxbstrd profile picture
Here's a path to the future:

"At the epicenter of the Coronavirus in Wuhan China, a team of physicians at the Zhongnan Hospital are using GPU-accelerated AI software to detect visual signs of the coronavirus (Covid 19).

Physicians there say the AI-based software, which relies on NVIDIA GPUs for both training and inference, has helped overworked staff screen patients and prioritize those likely to have the virus." news.developer.nvidia.com/...

"To help respond to the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are using the world’s fastest supercomputer to identify compounds that may effectively combat the virus. " news.developer.nvidia.com/...
pohzzer profile picture

The administration doesn't appear all that interested in identifying the tens of thousands of infected that already exist in the US.

I wonder where all those potentially useful compounds are manufactured. Got any ideas?
thiseffengeye profile picture
He doesn’t want a national emergency declared, because it will make him look bad. Can somebody tell him he is now a pariah?
pohzzer profile picture

It's clear from his posture and his eyes the game he was so enjoying playing has melted away to be replaced by a game of unmitigated horror he cannot win that will turn him into the most reviled president in history. One way or another he's going to hang it up.
pohzzer profile picture
I posted this on 27 Jan. It still applies. Especially this bit:

"Turn EVERYTHING into cash, do it ASAP, and concentrate on pure physical survival."

The HEAD of the Chinese Health Ministry made it sufficiently clear.
1. As the the virus adapts to humans it is mutating and BECOMING MORE CONTAGIOUS.
2. As the virus adapts to humans it is INFECTING ADDITIONAL AGE GROUPS.
3.The virus is ASYMPTOMATIC. It is contagious throughout it's current 3 to 14 day incubation period.
4.The virus has SILENT VECTORS. That is people can become infected and continue to spread the virus without becoming sick or showing any symptoms. The 'Typhoid Mary' syndrome.
5. The virus remains contagious and virulent after a chain of AT LEAST three human transmissions. It is not growing weaker as it passes from human to human, it is getting stronger and more virulent.
6. Genetically this is a new never seen before coronavirus. IF an effective vaccine is possible, it will take TIME to develop and manufacture it, during which time what is happening in Wuhan will be repeating in cities around the world.

Understand due to the above factors there are ALREADY thousands to tens of thousands of infected humans scattered throughout the world, each currently spreading the virus at a rapid rate, and THOSE infected then continuing the chain. While feeling fine and exhibiting no symptoms until the incubation period is over.That is why this cannot be contained. It has already spread throughout the planet.

A straightforward chain of logic based on those revealed points lead to a simple conclusion:
This is a deadly worldwide viral pandemic infection that cannot be contained and will be spreading at an exponential rate from the thousands of already infected travelers that are now scattered throughout the world.

Turn EVERYTHING into cash, do it ASAP, and concentrate on pure physical survival.

Supply chains will be shut down. Manufacturing will be shut down. Public gatherings will be shut down. Stock markets will be shut down. The world economy will be shut down.

Make no mistake, unless this virus miraculously and radically changes it's characteristics the world will be brought to it's knees and it will radically disrupt civilization and do so for a very long time.
say_here profile picture
What like the sun will come out and it will get warmer?
wow&wow profile picture
"HEAD of the Chinese Health Ministry"

Listen the the HEAD of Health Ministry of the world's largest zoo?
Bottom line, nobody is buying anything for a while.
alessandromatteo75 profile picture
Unfortunately everything will sync until we will have certain see how the company in the first two earnings are doing even that it’s very difficult to predict how they will do the whole year 2020. it could be a bigger financial crisis than we have seen in 2008. To all investors take the money keep cash and get in as soon as the right moment arrived.
Chris Lau profile picture
I continue to forecast a better entry point for $AMD. Now that the support line was taken out, soon it's time to buy the stock again. Give it a few sessions (AMD is a daily DIY discussion topic).
Wait for it......
pohzzer profile picture
@Chris Lau - Like watching a couple of children busy building a sand castle at the beach as an onrushing tidal wave towers over them.

Autosoft profile picture
@Chris Lau
DIY and retail have always been consistent markets for AMD... Right before Core 2 Duo, AMD had 80% of US retail (2004-2005)... And we're saying a faster movement towards it with Ryzen 3000...

Ryzen 4000 APUs should be a real game changer with RX5000M chips.. AMD said there are 100+ designs coming and recent leaks show that the launch at retail will happen next week... ASUS TUF is for Mar16 and others are Mar18 (videocardz.com)...

That and the shortages are why Digitimes said AMD will get 20% mobile soon... There's also leaks of the PRO versions for business up to a 4750U...

And there will probably be a 4000G series for desktop... I actually think AMD should use a cutoff point and say 8C and lower gets a GPU while 12C and higher don't... APUs may never get an IOD though because it's not really needed except for server with HBM...

5nm or 6nmm - depending on what they do may move APUs to 12C... But I hear that RDNA2 may not even be EUV because it will have Ryzen-level circuit optimizations (16C in 105W)...

They can the split off arch based on volume and margin where EPYC gets EUV, RDNA gets DUV (it's basically mature now)... 6nm and 5nm may be $1B per design (7nm was reported as $750M) so fortunately all CPUs are made from the same chiplet...

EUV could provide a Zen2+ with higher clocks and less power for desktop... We'll see I guess...

Still long EPYC...
pohzzer profile picture
This shit is just getting started. AMD is doing remarkably well under the circumstances, but that will not continue.
Merg&Aq profile picture
Large institutional investors need to show a positive return. Once everything in their portfolio is toast - that's when they cash in the big gains they made over the last 12 months in AMD. AMD was at $25 this time last year. That's still (at $42/share) a 68% annual gain for those that got in at that price. Yes, a great company, but gravity and exponential growth are bi*chs.
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!
To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.