Visa Inc. (V) Management Presents at 2020 Wolfe Research FinTech Forum Conference (Transcript)
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) 2020 Wolfe Research FinTech Forum Conference March 11, 2020 12:00 AM ET
Ryan McInerney - President
Conference Call Participants
Darrin Peller - Wolfe Research
Good morning. And welcome to the Virtual Wolfe FinTech Forum Fireside Chat with Visa hosted by senior analyst covering payments, processors and IT services, Darrin Peller. All lines remain on listen only throughout the call [Operator Instructions].
And now I hand the call over to Darrin.
All right. Thanks Daniella. And thank you everyone for joining our Virtual Wolfe FinTech Forum. It’s the 10th year we're doing this conference. Didn't want to do it in virtual format but obviously just given all the travel restrictions and really for the safety of everyone that would have been here, we thought it was the right move. So hope everyone's doing well and safe. And really appreciate everyone joining us, really good participation yesterday, obviously, folks not just wanting to stare at their screens in this environment but actually get some good content.
With that in mind, we really want to thank Visa and Ryan, the President of the company for joining us today on a fireside chat. Really talk about the strategy of the company. So, Ryan, thank you for joining us. Appreciate having you guys here in this format, especially.
Yes. Thanks for having me. And hopefully, you can hear me okay, looking forward to discussion. So thanks for having me.
Sure. Yes, we could hear you, great. All right. So let's just -- I think the obvious place to start just given the elephant in the room is the coronavirus and what you're seeing. Look, you guys pre-announced recently, I think you talked about 2.5% to 3.5% impact on your fiscal second quarter growth rate based on what you had seen thus far. Can you give us a little context into what went into those assumptions? And maybe a little more whatever you can tell us and what you're seeing, whether it's travel cross border or U. S.?
Well, there's clearly a lot going on in the world right now. And as you noted, we did pre-announce. I guess the first thing I'd say is our top priority is our people, Visa employees. The situation is evolving incredibly fast. Our leadership team is meeting several times a day, seven days a week to track the latest developments and take whatever actions that we feel we need to take to ensure that our team members are safe, and they're able to do the work that they need to do that support our clients and partners effectively.
I do want to thank our Visa team members all around the world. They're just working incredibly hard. They're fantastic leaders and then navigating in a tricky situation every day during the day. We're also in very close and regular contact with our clients, our partners, governments around the world. We're doing everything that we can do to help them navigate what are obviously complicated times for all of us.
As it relates to our business and the spending trends, as you said, we released an 8-K last week on March 2nd. As you know and everybody's been tracking since then the virus has continued to spread to countries outside of Asia. As we expected, spending has continued to deteriorate, especially in travel. We factor this continuing deterioration during the month of March into the updated Q2 revenue projection that you referenced a moment ago and we included in our 8-K. And you know just given the recency of the spread and the impact that we're seeing on spending, it's just, it's honestly too early to tell what the overall impact is going to be.
As I think you would expect and you would hope in terms of expenses, we're doing a number of things inside our company. We're taking a series of actions to reduce expenses where we think it's smart and is not going to impact the health of our business, certainly in the medium to the long term. Seriously, we continue to believe and I look forward to talking about a tremendous set of growth opportunities that we have for the company and we outlined on Investor Day.
So, Darrin, the situation is very fluid. There's no question we continue to monitor it very closely. Given the uncertainty surrounding the magnitude, duration, the geographic reach of the impact, we're going to give an update of our views for future quarters and the full year for 2020 on our earnings call in April.
But it does sound like you're at least willing to pull some levers when necessary on the expense side, like you guys have done in past economic cycles?
That's absolutely right. I think we've shown over time in many different economic cycles that we do, we have the ability to flex our expenses, take a series of different type of belt tightening actions, when our revenue slows we've shown that in different cycles over time our ability to do that. So, we don't obviously know exactly what's going to happen in this situation, but we are prepared to take the set of actions we think are most prudent to set a time. And like I said, things that aren't going to impact the medium or long-term growth opportunities that we're very, very excited about.
All right, that's really helpful. Look, I think our view and hopefully most people's view is that 2021, God willing won't be as affected by these kinds of things and that the earnings power of companies like yourselves shouldn't be as affected. So, I think at this point, we should just start talking now about the bigger picture longer term for investors to understand what the implications could be on valuation, given some of the draw downs that we've seen. Your Investor Day provided a great overview on a number of incremental opportunities. And you definitely talked a lot about your addressable market growing versus what we used to think about when we think consumer payments exclusively. If we just revisit this high level, starting the legacy consumer payments opportunities, new flows, value added services. Can you just, how do you think about the magnitude of each of these and then perhaps, it would be helpful to hear your views on the timing for you to reach some of these three opportunities overtime?
There's a lot in there. So I'd love to talk about it. So I'm excited to turn our attention to the growth opportunities. I'll start talking and you feel free to interrupt me if I'm going too much, but I'll try to hit all those points. As I said in Investor Day, I can't think of a time in Visa’s history where there's been more opportunity for growth. We laid out a series of opportunities and the actions that we intend to take to capture those opportunities in three big areas; consumer payments, new flows and value added services. I’ll just go through each of them. I guess you asked about it. In consumer payments there's five forces that we see fueling this enormous opportunity. Even with all the success that we have had electronic line payments, there's still $18 trillion in cash and checks spent every year around the globe, and that number continues to go up.
The second thing you see happening is this shift from physical to digital commerce and there's an enormous runway that remains there as well. And this really works in our favor, because our share of digital commerce is about 3 times higher than it is in the physical world. Third thing that we see happening is many, many new issuers are being created all around the world, which is helping to grow credentials and provide new experience in both mature markets and less mature markets, especially for the unbanked and the underbanked.
Fourth thing is it's really never been easier to accept digital payments. Sellers no longer need like dedicated devices and high cost hardware, it's much cheaper, much faster, much easier to become a seller on their network. And then finally, we're seeing a lot of action from governments who see the benefits of digitizing payments. And they're taking a number of steps and action to really accelerate the transition to digital payments, so all of those work in the favor of driving this consumer payments opportunity. And then as we led out beyond that we see an enormous opportunity in new flows, and the addressable market here is 10 times what we see in the consumer space. So we led out $185 trillion is I think you referenced.
So we have spent a lot of time studying inthe $185 trillion opportunity and we break that down into a series of subsegments, B2B, which is a huge one at $120 trillion and this kind of addresses space that can be addressed with both card-based solutions, as well as number of other solutions that we led out. You've got kind of what we've been calling B to b, which is another $5 trillion. So this is kind of big business to small business. You have disbursements from businesses to consumers, which is another $30 trillion. Things like on demand, payroll, insurance payouts, gig economy payroll in the likes, P2P, which is another $20 trillion and then the relatively nascent GSE, which is another $10 trillion. So I mean, all of these are very right opportunities and really significant.
And then the third area that you alluded to is well is value added services. And here, and we're very excited about the opportunity to meaningfully expand our revenue, while also importantly helping our clients be more successful. And we can talk more about it if it's helpful, but we lay out our value added services in five primary areas. We've got a robust set of solutions for issuers and helping them deliver consumer solutions. Second is acquire seller solutions, security and identity data solutions and then our Visa Consulting and Analytics business. And these services are going to drive revenue growth of more than 20% this year, which should be about $3.5 billion in revenue.
And, in terms of timing, which I think was the last part of your question, consumer payments is really, it's our core business and is going to fuel growth for now and into the future. For both new flows within the B2B is the cardable and the cross border opportunities that are much more near term. The more domestic kind of APAR solutions are going to take some time to truly scale. So if I'm going to go back to those numbers I mentioned a minute ago, of the $120 trillion in the B2B space, I'd say about $30 trillion of that is really in the near term.
And then for the remaining $65 trillion in new flows, so we think Visa Direct use cases are all very near for opportunities, probably maybe except some of the government to consumer once, which are a little further out. So I'd say there probably $55 trillion of the $65 trillion is very much in the near term space. So you add all that up, it's a very, very significant opportunity to take the $18 trillion in consumer, call it $85 trillion in new flows that are addressable in the near term, it's a lot of opportunity.
And just put into context, I guess maybe I'll close on this. Visa Direct brought 2 billion transactions in 2019 to our network, and had 68 billion in payments volume just in the fourth quarter of 2019. Our B2B payments business today is over $1 trillion. So these are big meaningful opportunities that are growing at significant rate.
That's all helpful and great to hear. Look, I mean, I think when you put all that together at your Investor Day and you talked about the potential for revenue acceleration from 10% to 12%, you called out or you showed in that slide. We get this question inbound from investors, is the company telling us that's what they actually believe will happen, or that's what could happen if everything just sort of goes at the rate it’s going. I guess that's a nuance but it's a question I'd like to put to you?
You’re talking about the addressable market?
No, your CAGR, you talked about the opportunity to accelerate revenue growth from 10% to 12%, because of the newer business is growing well.
And I guess the question we get sometimes is does the company actually just say, that's what they expect will be the case, because, like in other words, if the run rate of what we're seeing today holds, that's what would happen. Or is the company saying they actually believe that will happen, because there's no reason there's anything that we're talking about should decelerate?
Here's how we think about it, right? We come into work every day and we're focused on building products, solutions and services that are going to help, our clients and partners all around the world grow their businesses. And we're very focused on these three specific areas of growth. We have built out detailed plans on how we're going to attack each of these areas to create products and solutions to digitize the cash and checks and consumer payments and new flows and deliver value added services. And we're focused on how do we deliver against the roadmap that's going to help us grow two, three, four, five and 10 years out into the future. So that's what we're focused on, that's how we think about the opportunity. We've organized against it. We have plans against it. And we're doing everything we can to deliver great products and services to digitize those.
Right. I mean, it does sound like those opportunities in combination should allow for that 10 to 12, which is something I think investors were constructing on. But let's hone in for a minute, if we think of the digital piece, I thought that was a really good data point at the Investor Day when you guys said that you’d touch $0.43 of every dollar, that's digital versus $0.15 of every physical POS dollar spent. It's just such an enormously outsized percentage of market that you see on digital. I think if you can expand on that, what does that mean for your model, your investments and the runway there? I mean, digital does seem like it should and will be a very big part of your story going forward, and what more can you do, I guess?
It's a very important and very positive part of our story and we're doing a lot. Just to put in context, the additional opportunity remains a huge untapped opportunity all around the world. It's been growing very fast since 2016 digital commerce. I think it’s grown a little over 20% CAGR all around the world. But it's still only chipping away at kind of traditional retail. E-commerce is only about 14% of global retail spending. So even with all of that growth, there's still enormous runway for digital commerce to grow all around the world.
And as you alluded to, it's very important and a very positive trend for us. Quite frankly in the digital world, cash is often not an option for consumers. And when it isn’t an option, it's usually a relatively, I’d say terrible customer experience. And it's more expensive and it's more costly for sellers. So that's why our natural share of spend in the digital world is much, much higher than it is in the physical world, and the numbers that you just referenced show that that it's about 3 times, our share is about 3 times higher than we otherwise would get.
So, as we think about e-commerce and kind of it fueling a kind of meaningful amount of both domestic and cross border business, it's a very significant area that we're investing in, building new products, delivering a roadmap of solutions to the market. And I'd say, first and foremost, we're looking to improve kind of the consumer experience in the digital world. We're trying to help sellers increase their conversion rates, helping decrease abandonment, helping reduce fraud to get both consumers and sellers’ confidence in the digital commerce space. Guest checkout is one example that I would highlight.
In e-commerce, where you're a known shopper, which a lot of us are, we have maybe card on file and stored our payment credentials. The experience for using your Visa card is pretty darn good. It's easy. The site remembers you, it stores your credentials, you usually just click Checkout, and you're done. Look, guest checkout is only about half of e-commerce. For the other half of e-commerce, consumers face a much messier and less efficient kind of guest checkout experience. We've all done it. The site doesn't recognize you. You have to fill out a bunch of different kind of steps of the process. It can take 20, 25 steps, it can take two, three, four minutes, it's messy.
So this is an area where we've invested in click to pay. So that now when you go to sites, hopefully in the e-commerce space all around the world, you look for a button, you select your card, hopefully it’s a Visa card, you click and you're done. So, again replicating the card on file experience in guest just checkout that's kind of one example.
Another example would be tokenization. We are continuing to invest in building out tokenization capabilities to help improve both security but also customer experience in the digital world. We're building out our risk and fraud services to help, as I said, sellers reduce fraud and issuers to reduce fraud. In the physical world, chip cards have had a huge impact. But what has happened is what we expected you've seen a shift in fraudsters focusing online. So we're investing a series of our capabilities to help reduce fraud there.
And I guess last thing I’d mention and I could go on in this space is installments. We think that the buy now pay later offerings kind of growing around the world are going to continue to grow. And we've built out a series of those offerings as a network service, so that sellers can deliver a buy now pay later offering to all of their consumers that come to buy. So those are some of the investments that we're making, as you'd expect there's a lot more. And as you said, digital is a huge opportunity for us to continue to grow.
Okay, that's helpful. Maybe we can just sit for a minute, another topic within consumer payments is Tap to Pay or contactless, which obviously even in this environment, probably even more relevant. But look you guys called out I think 20% lift in transaction numbers after
transaction numbers after Tap to Pay is rolled out in some developed markets in the past, obviously, a lot of smaller transactions. Can you just touch on the opportunity for this in the U. S. now and then maybe globally as well?
Yes, sure. We've been working on Tap to Pay for a number of years and it’s because of what you said that we've seen the opportunity that it creates. And now we're very excited that we're able to show all of you the results. For like in the physical world, there's no question about it, Tap to Pay is the best experience, the best experience for buyers, it's the best experience for sellers.
And we've proven it now again and again in country after country around the world. Consumers love it. Sellers love it. It's a fantastic buying experience, which is what we're ultimately trying to deliver. And globally, we've reached a point where one in every three card present transactions that runs over our network is now Tap to Pay, and that's up from one in four just a year ago. So the growth is incredible. And it reflects, I think, the significantly improved seller and buyer experience.
The past year, we doubled the number of countries whose face to face transactions are now at least two thirds contactless. And if you take the U. S. out of things for a minute, we can come back and talk about the U. S. We have more than half of all the transactions last year were tap to pay, 55% I think of total global transaction excluding the U. S., again, up from 40% just a year earlier. So it's significant growth. And getting to the core of your question on 20%, it's really the experience is effective at replacing smaller ticket transactions that would otherwise be cash. And it increases the number of Visa transactions that ultimately start to happen through this habituation process that happens. Transit is a great enabler of this, we’ve talked about that a few times.
And if you go back to the U. S., the U. S. is clearly earlier in the journey, but it's absolutely picking up steam. And the data really starts to play it out. In the U. S., I think we've got about $145 million Tap to Pay cards out there now and we said, there'll be $300 million by the end of the year. 17 of the top 25 issuers are fully issuing Tap to Pay cards now in the U. S., so they're getting cards in the people's hands. And then equally important, the sellers are ready. Eight of the top 10 merchants are accepting Tap to Pay and I think it's 83 of the top 100 merchants in the U. S. And actually we look at I think it's 60% of all in store transactions in the U. S. are now taking place at terminals that are enabled for Tap to Pay. So in the U. S. it's happening.
We've now got adoption curves for dozens, and dozens and dozens of countries around the world. We know how it plays out. We have a very good view of how these adoption curves mature. And typically it takes two to three years for the usage to really accelerate. And we're excited about the next year or two in the U. S. and hope to seeing that.
Yeah, I mean I just have to think, and correct me if I'm wrong. But is there any reason why it would not drive some level of lift in the U. S. in '21 versus 2020 in terms of the U. S.? I mean, you should be at mostly ubiquitous levels by the end of the year. Putting macro conditions aside, I would think that there should be a lift in the number of transactions purely attributed to contactless in '21 over '20 and over '19?
Yes, I guess as it relates to the U. S., it’s going to take a couple of years, as I mentioned, for this Tap to Pay journey to play out, just like we've seen in other large markets around the world. In some of the more, I'll call, mature Tap to Pay markets around the world, it shows some of these curves at Investor Day. You clearly see the transaction growth, which is why we're so excited and why we're making all the investments that we’re making in the U. S.
Let me shift gears, the network of networks concept, which is something that we've been pretty excited about. I mean, you guys are partnering now at networks, really around the world, whether it's Paytm or LINE Pay, or Go-Jek or others. And I think you mentioned potentially a billion new users that could be on the Visa Network that weren't there before comparing that to maybe the 3 billion or 4 billion that actually have Visa Cards now. It's just an incredible lift when you think of all those new users potentially, even maybe for cross border. Are we thinking about this the right way? I mean I know the amount of times they would use Visa, be on the Visa Network maybe less than the average Visa user, but still maybe higher yielding at cross border?
So I think one of the most important things that's happening in payments around the world right now is the opening up of what were previously close digital commerce ecosystems. And just to put this in perspective, if you look back a couple of years, we saw and we all talked about the rapid rise of all these new digital commerce ecosystems around the world, right? It started in China with Ali and WeChat. It spread quickly to the rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa, the rest of the world.
And Darrin if we were doing this conference a few years ago, like you would have been asking me a bunch of questions about the competitive threat that ecosystems pose, because they were largely close to Visa and that would have been the thread of the discussion that we were having a couple years ago. But today, we were really seeing a fundamental shift from what were otherwise closed ecosystems to now open ecosystems.
And we see these digital platforms all around the world moving from what were competitors to now very important partners. They're becoming issuers of Visa credentials, enablers of Visa acceptance, and the opportunity for Visa and for our partners is enormous. And some of them you mentioned, right? There are partners like LINE, and Paytm and Go-Jek and Toss and I could go on and on. And so we do believe the opportunity, as you referenced, is more than a billion potential credentials and I think about 70 million potential sellers, and most of these are not on the Visa Network today…
And let me just kick-in in terms of actually impacting your numbers. Is it a ‘21 event, where we start to see some impact?
The work that our teams have been doing, which I'm really proud of all around the world, has been engaging with these partners and helping them realize the potential of opening up their networks, the potential to grow their business by issuing credentials and opening up acceptance. And that's where we've been spending the bulk of our energy. Now, we're working with these partners to solution to create experiences, to create issuance experiences. And if and when and how all those credentials start to materialize, it's tough to predict, it's going to take time, it'll evolve overtime. But when you kind of look at the opportunity versus where it was a couple years ago, there's no question that it's just an enormous opportunity for our partners and therefore for Visa.
Again, if you and I were having this conversation a couple years ago, you would have asked me something about like a company like Paytm. Everything going on in India, isn't Paytm going to be a big competitor to Visa in India, and now you can see a company like Paytm as the opposite, they're great partner, one of our most important partners in India. They've grown like a rapid shift a few years ago in a closed ecosystem model. They’ve built out whatever it is a half of billion users and 15 million to 16 million sellers. Now we're working with Paytm to issue both digital and physical visa cards, debit cards, credit cards, to their 500 million users.
We're working with them to open up acceptance, they're becoming an acquirer and enabler of Visa Acceptance at their millions of sellers all across India. So I mean, exactly when and how this materializes into numbers, it's just tough to predict. But I can tell you all around the world, the opportunity is enormous and very, very excited about it.
Okay. The other key, one of the other key new drivers we're pretty excited about, I've done a lot of work on Visa Direct. I know you mentioned before the 68 billion of volume in fiscal fourth quarter. It was a mind blowing number when you think of it being literally almost $300 billion annualized now, 300 billion out of, call it, 4 trillion or so debit, right? So we're talking 8%. I know not all of it but most of it is in debit growing, Ryan, I think you guys said it's almost it's still nearly triple digit growth. And you got to remind us what the growth profile of Visa Direct was, but it was by far faster than the rest of your business. So, is there any reason why that shouldn't keep growing at these strong rates and potentially lift the overall debit volume profile in terms of growth?
We've been excited about Visa Direct for many years now. And we are excited that we've been able to now show you all some of the numbers that underlie our excitement for the platform. And you described the growth profile right, that's how we think about it. It's been a great growth engine so far but we're really excited about the growth engine that it represents going forward. And we've got, we have a broad set of existing use cases that we've laid out, and I can talk about. We've got teams working on expanding into new use cases, new geographies. The growth is really, the growth potential is really significant.
And it's important to think about, for all of you to think about, Visa Direct it's not a product, right? It's an end to end money movement platform, and we run Visa Direct as a business. It's got a business leader, it's got a full management team, it's got a sales force, a customer service group, et cetera, et cetera. Inside of Visa, the Visa Direct platform is a full end-to-end business unit and its powering dozens of kind of fast payments use cases all around the world.
And it gets, a lot of people may not understand kind of how we built the business to get it to where it is today. We have, our leadership team has done a lot of detailed analysis to identify the use cases that have the biggest potential. And we go through and we assess the market vertical to understand what is the value chain all the way from a sender to a receiver, a detailed work and we go through and we understand the receive side of the business. We help our partners prepare them to enable the new use cases. We go through different ticket sizes, transaction velocity, risk management solutions. I mean, there's a whole bunch of work that goes in use case by use case to deliver it.
And then, we have to develop for any given use case a bunch of segment specific infrastructure. The different set of API's, different integration methods, all focused on how do we help our partners enable kind of these fast payment use cases to help drive their business. So it is an exciting platform. We're seeing enormous growth in P2P, in B2C and the gig economy. As I mentioned, B to b, and happy to talk about any of those use cases, but it is a business that we continue to invest in. We see significant growth today and into the future.
Okay. We’re almost out of time. I'll give you one last question. I'll take maybe one or two for your time from the audience. There's a bunch of questions already coming in. But, just
in interest of time, I guess what kind of deals are you thinking about potentially doing, if any at all? What are the levers levels you'd be comfortable with? And really, where do you see Visa as being both ahead of and behind competitors?
We're focused on our strategy. We're focused on executing day-in and day-out against our strategy, delivering for our partners and ultimately delivering growth. And as we spoke about at Investor Day, our first priority is always about how can we build product, solutions and services ourselves and deliver those across our global ecosystem, both on our network and increasingly on our network of networks.
When we see opportunities when we can use either commercial partnership, investments or acquisitions to fill gaps, move more quickly and enable that growth strategy, we're always looking at those opportunities. We led out our criteria very clearly at Investor Day. But it's not, acquisitions are not something we come into work every day, thinking about how do we get done. It's all about our strategy. What is our strategy? What do we need to get done to deliver our strategy? And how do we deliver products and services and solutions globally to make that happen, and we'll look at always the best ways to do that. So that's what we're really focused on.
Okay. All right. Maybe we'll take a couple just, we have only two minutes. So one question is how much is, how much of Visa Direct is cannibalizing existing flows versus new flows? I guess that's the question.
You know, Visa Direct is all about new flows. I mean, you think through the use cases that we're tackling and they're almost all check and cash use cases. P2P is an obvious example. Visa Direct is kind of the underlying platform fueling a lot of use cases for nearly all the largest P2P platforms that you know and probably use around the world. I mentioned insurance claims pay outs that's entirely incremental, B2B, I'm sorry business loan payouts. So Visa Direct is a fast payments platform that is entirely focused on digitizing new flows that we otherwise would not be capturing in our core B2C business.
Okay. That's good to hear. All right. Next question is, it's a question around your expense growth rate. In other words, at the Investor Day, you talked about a higher expense growth rate versus your prior Investor Day a couple years ago. I mean, I know it's probably more of a Vasant question. But any thought process around that. Is that just the level of investments you're making now or?
Hopefully, to get a sense of how excited we are about the growth opportunities that we have. And so notwithstanding the current environment that we're in right now and what I said earlier about our focus on being very disciplined in this environment on expenses, it's just to back up more broadly we are being prudent and thoughtful but we're absolutely investing to go capture what we think is a terrific set of growth opportunities all around the world in our core business, in the B2C business, but also in the two other big growth levers in terms of delivering solutions to capture new flows and also value added services.
Okay. Look, we have more but just in interest of time, we'll have to stop it now. So, Ryan, just want to thank you very much. To the client that asked those questions, I'll follow up with management and try to get you answers on those as well. If anyone else has any, feel free to e-mail us. Ryan, really appreciate your time. I hope you guys stay safe and all is well in the next couple of months. And we'll be in touch shortly after you report earnings I guess.
Thank to all of you and thanks for having me this morning. Really appreciate it.
Thanks, guys. Everyone on the audience, the next one is with the CFO of Western Union. Presentation time is at 10:50. All right, Ryan, thanks again guys. Have a great day. Take care.
End of Q&A
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