For Bonds It's Probably 'Game Over'

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About: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), Includes: AGZ, AWTM, BBSA, BIL, BKT, BOND, BTYS, CLTL, DFVL, DFVS, DLBS, DTUL, DTUS, DTYL, DTYS, EDV, EGF, FIBR, FLAT, GBIL, GNMA, GOVT, GSY, HYDD, IEF, IEI, IVOL, LDSF, LTPZ, MBB, OPER, PBTP, PLW, PST, RINF, RISE, SCHO, SCHP, SCHQ, SCHR, SHV, SHY, SPIP, SPMB, SPTI, SPTL, SPTS, STIP, STPP, STPZ, TAPR, TBF, TBT, TBX, TDTF, TDTT, TFLO, TIP, TIPX, TIPZ, TLH, TMF, TMV, TTT, TUZ, TYBS, TYD, TYNS, TYO, UBT, USFR, UST, USTB, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VMBS, VRIG, VTIP, VUSTX, ZROZ
by: Harold L. Vogel, CFA
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Harold L. Vogel, CFA
Research analyst, hedge fund manager, media, CFA
Summary

The tremendous bull bond market run from 1981 is probably now ending.

When it comes to bonds, deflationary economic trends are misleading.

The Fed and other major central banks are already pumping large but with diminishing or perhaps eventually even counterproductive results.

Moving from bonds to cash or equivalents such as T-bills is a viable and safe portfolio strategy but absent noticeable returns.

Overview

Through the great inflation period of the late 1970s and for about thirty years prior all bonds taken broadly as an asset class were widely considered to be “certificates of confiscation” The portfolio losses