Conservative Portfolios Of Funds For This Bear Market

Summary

• I take a brief look at the Investment Environment. Funds that do well in each stage of the business cycle are listed along with year to date performance.
• Three conservative Vanguard or Fidelity Target Portfolios for this bear market are described and evaluated.
• Rebalancing strategies for the current bear market are discussed. Don't catch a falling knife.

Introduction

This article looks at the current investment environment, my Vanguard and Fidelity Target Portfolios, and a preliminary strategy for allocations as the economy and markets evolve.

Investment Model

If you took Charles Ellis' philosophy in Winning the Loser's Game that the best way for an individual investor to win is to not play the game, Benjamin Graham's guidance in the Intelligent Investor of never having less than 25% in stocks nor more than 75%, the methodology from James Picerno's Nowcasting The Business Cycle, and Cornehlsen, Carr, and Golden's Conquering the Divide, you might end up with an investment model such as mine in Chart #1. What it has been guiding me to do for the past year is to reduce allocations of stock to my minimum. Note that risk tolerance is adjusted according to the business cycle.

Chart #1: Investment Environment

Source: Author

What the Investment Model provides is a good sense if things are getting worse or better. We are in a bear market now because people fear the spread of COVID-19 and anticipate a recession. The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread, and Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims are starting to raise red flags. With the severe and necessary precautions to contain COVID-19, I expect a recession. Valuations are becoming reasonable. In my opinion, now is not the time to catch a falling knife. Better valuations will be available if a recession does occur.

The S&P 500 has fallen about 32% from the high of 3,386 in the past month which is what you would expect over a 9-month period during a mild recession. To meet the bear market severity of the past two recessions, the S&P 500 would have to fall by 45% from the high to about 1,900. There are comparisons in the media to the 1929 Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression. According to Wikipedia, the Great Depression was caused by:

There was an initial stock market crash that triggered a "panic sell-off" of assets. This was followed by a deflation in asset and commodity prices, dramatic drops in demand and credit, and disruption of trade, ultimately resulting in the widespread unemployment.

This rings true in 2020; however, since the Great Depression, unemployment insurance, social security, and Medicare/Medicaid have been implemented, and pensions or retirement savings plans are more common. Efforts to contain the COVID-19 include limiting travel, school closings, "shelter in place" orders, an $8.3B emergency funding package was approved in early March, Families First Coronavirus Response Act was approved mid-March, testing is increasing, development of drugs has been streamlined, and work is ongoing on a third economic package that could total more than a trillion dollars. The Federal Reserve has begun a $1 trillion a day program through the end of March for overnight lending, is loaning money to banks to buy municipal bonds, set up a commercial paper funding facility, revived quantitative easing for $700B, and cut the federal funds top rate to 0.25%.

While this tremendous effort to contain or mitigate COVID-19 has been building, the number of cases reported has risen to over 23,000 in the U.S. with over 300 deaths.

Investing According to the Business Cycle

Table #1 contains my grouping of fund categories that have done well by stage of the business cycle over the past 25 years. The red numbers next to the category are the 2020 year to date performance. In general, current performance is representative of past recessions. Government bonds, cash, and gold have done reasonably well in 2020. My interpretation of investing according to the business cycle has 70% to 80% invested in cash and bonds during a recession.

Table #1: Top Performing Categories by Business Cycle Stage

Source: Created by the Author

Assuming that we do enter a recession, I will be looking to rotate into funds that do well when an economy starts to recover.

Secular Bear Market

Here is a good definition of secular bear markets by Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity in 2013:

I define a secular bear market as a prolonged period spanning several business cycles of below-average-although not necessarily negative-nominal returns, an outright decline in real (inflation-adjusted) returns, and a sustained compression in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. By that definition, we've been in a secular bear market since 2000.

The ten-year-long bull market that just ended is a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. Chart #2 shows the Vanguard LifeStrategy Income Fund (VASIX) which is about 20% stocks, the Vanguard Wellesley (VWIAX) which is about 40% stocks, and the Vanguard Wellington Fund (VWELX) which is about 65% stocks for the past twenty-two years ending in February. The link to Portfolio Visualizer is provided here. By the end of March, the Wellesley Fund will have a better 22-year performance than the S&P 500 and will have a return very close to Wellington. If we go into a recession, conservative funds will out-perform.

Chart #2: Secular Bear Market Fund Performance

Source: Created by the Author Based on Portfolio Visualizer

Target Portfolios

As a refresher, Vanguard's philosophy to investing and asset allocation is:

• If you start building your portfolio by finding the right mix of asset types, you'll have more control over how risky your portfolio is.
• There are no "good" or "bad" allocations - you'll need to find the one that's right for you based on your own situation.
• Extensive research has shown that, if you have a diversified portfolio, a whopping 88% of your experience (the volatility you encounter and the returns you earn) can be traced back to your asset allocation

- Asset allocation: Key to your investment climate, Vanguard

In Performance Of Low-Risk Vanguard Portfolio Year To Date and the update and a similar article for Fidelity, I developed three lower risk portfolios that I am following in tax-advantaged accounts. I have separate accounts for emergencies, reserves, and specific purposes. The performance of these three portfolios is shown in Chart #3 for March 2018 through February 2018. The link to Portfolio Visualizer is provided here.

Chart #3: Target Portfolio Performance

Source: Created by the Author Based on Portfolio Visualizer

The draw down of the three Target Portfolios is shown in Chart #4 for the past two years.

Chart #4: Target Portfolio Draw Down

Source: Created by the Author Based on Portfolio Visualizer

Table #2 shows the performance metrics for the above chart compared to similar funds at Vanguard and Fidelity. CAGR is the compound rate of growth, Sortino Ratio is the risk free return divided by the downside deviation and represents the risk adjusted return. Year to date, the S&P 500 has lost nearly 29%, the Vanguard Wellington has lost nearly 22%. The three Target Portfolios have lost 11-14% compared to 14% for the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund.

Table #2: Target Portfolio Performance (Mar 2018 - Feb 2020)

Portfolio	CAGR	MaxxDD	Sortino	YTD 2020
	(03/18-02/20)	(03/18-02/20)	(03/18-02/20)	(03/20-2020)
Vanguard Conservative	5.7	-2.2	1.5	-11.3
Fidelity Conservative	6.6	-3.3	1.7	-12.1
Fidelity Moderate	8.7	-4.8	1.7	-14.5
SPDR S&P 500 ETF	6.4	-13.5	0.5	-28.5
Wellesley Income	7.1	-2.9	1.6	-14.3
Wellington	6.5	-6.8	0.7	-21.9
Fidelity Asst Mngr 30%	4.6	4.7	0.8	-12.8

Click to enlarge

Source: 2018/2019 metrics from Portfolio Visualizer, YTD from Morningstar

The Vanguard Conservative Portfolio is 13.5% international stocks and 18.1% domestic stocks. From Morningstar, the yield of the Vanguard Conservative Portfolio is 2.9%. Similarly, the Fidelity Conservative Portfolio is 17% international stocks and 16% domestic stocks. The yield of the Vanguard Conservative Portfolio is 2.1%. The Fidelity Moderate Portfolio is 25% international stocks and 26% domestic stocks with a yield of 2.0%.

Measuring Risk and Risk Adjusted Returns

Each month, I download about a thousand funds from Mutual Fund Observer and rank the funds based on Risk, Risk-Adjusted Returns, Momentum, Income, and Quality (Valuation, Bond Quality, Category performance during recessions). Below is the Mutual Fund Observer data on my three target portfolios where Rank is my ranking system, Mutual Fund Observer's MFO Risk (1=Very Conservative to 5=Aggressive), Mutual Fund Observer's MFO Rank based on risk adjusted return (1 is worst to 5 for best), Ulcer Index (measures risk as the depth and duration of draw down), and Martin Ratio (Risk Adjusted Return). I use Portfolio Visualizer to narrow the list of funds and assign an allocation. Finally, I use the Mutual Fund Observer Portfolio Tool to make sure the portfolio MFO Risk is Conservative (Risk = 2). A Mutual Fund Observer membership is free, and the cost of Mutual Fund Observer's Premium Search and Portfolio Tool is $125 per year.

Table #3 contains my Vanguard IRA Target Portfolio Funds. The goal is to develop low risk, globally diversified portfolios. T. Rowe Price Global Multi-Sector Bond Fund Investor (PRSNX) is included for its great long-term performance. Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX) is included because of its diversification. Vanguard will change the name in May and make some changes, such as changing the dividend from monthly to annual. The funds are sorted from low Risk (blue) to aggressive (grey).

Table #3: Vanguard Conservative Portfolio (24 months)

Symbol	Name	Rank	MFO Risk	MFO Rank	Ulcer Index	Martin Ratio
VFIJX	GNMA	100	1	-	0.3	10.8
VUSFX	Ultra-Short-Term Bond	97	1	-	0.0	-
VTABX	Total Intern Bond	96	1	5	0.5	9.6
VFISX	Short-Term Treas	93	1	5	0.1	16.9
PRSNX	Glbl Multi-Sector Bond	89	1	4	0.6	5.7
VBILX	Intrmdt-Trm Bond	99	2	5	0.5	14.7
VFICX	Intrmdt-Trm Invst-Grd	99	2	5	0.4	15.5
VEMBX	Em Mrkts Bond	92	2	5	0.9	8.0
VWIAX	Wellesley Income	89	2	5	1.0	5.3
VMNVX	Glbl Min Vol	79	3	5	2.6	1.9
VWELX	Wellington	74	3	5	2.1	2.1
VGSTX	STAR	68	3	4	2.8	1.2
VGWAX	Glbl Wellington	67	3	5	2.3	1.3
VPGDX	Managed Payout	65	3	1	2.2	-0.2
IAU	Gold Trust	58	3	3	4.5	1.8
VEMAX	Em Mrkts	60	4	3	13.6	-0.5
	Portfolio	77	2		0.8	4.7

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Mutual Fund Observer

Table #4 contains my Fidelity IRA Target Portfolio Funds. I try to take advantage of Fidelity's large selection of funds.

Table #4: Fidelity Conservative Portfolio (24 months)

Symbol	Name	Rank	MFO Risk	MFO Rank	Ulcer Index	Martin Ratio
FTHRX	Intrmdt Bond	89	1	5	0.2	22.7
FUMBX	Short-Term Treas	87	1	5	0.1	18.5
FIKFX	Freedom Income	84	1	5	0.7	4.9
FCONX	Cons Inc Bond	80	1	5	0.0	10.2
FXNAX	US Bond	87	2	4	0.4	12.5
FGOVX	Gov Income	86	2	4	0.5	9.3
FGBFX	Glbl Credit	83	2	5	0.6	10.4
FRIFX	Real Estate Income	82	2	5	1.0	7.5
FCBFX	Corporate Bond	75	2	3	0.7	10.4
FIPDX	Infl-Prot Bond	73	2	4	0.8	4.9
FPE	Prefrd Sec & Inc	70	2	4	1.4	2.8
FMSDX	Multi-Asset Income	76	3	5	1.8	3.4
FIREX	Intern Real Estate	70	3	5	3.1	1.7
IAU	Gold	58	3	3	4.5	1.8
FWRLX	Wireless Portfolio	63	4	5	4.2	2.1
FEMSX	Em Mrkts	53	4	4	10.4	-0.4
FIGFX	Intern Growth	53	4	5	4.3	0.7
FDEGX	Growth Strategies	48	4	3	4.5	1.5
	Portfolio	70	2		0.8	4.7

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Mutual Fund Observer

Table #5 contains another Fidelity IRA Target Portfolio Funds. This portfolio is still rated Conservative by MFO for the past two years but is more aggressive than the previous Fidelity Conservative Target Portfolio. I included Fidelity Fund Picks in the universe of funds such as Baron Global Advantage Fund Retail (BGAFX) which may suffer in the short term due to COVID-19. I include iShares S&P Global Clean Energy (ICLN) for its long-term potential, but it will suffer from the oil price wars.

Table #5: Fidelity Moderate Portfolio (24 months)

Symbol	Name	Rank	MFO Risk	MFO Rank	Ulcer Index	Martin Ratio
DODIX	Dodge & Cox Inc	100	1	5	0.3	16.1
FUMBX	Short-Term Treas	87	1	5	0.1	18.5
FIKFX	Freedom Income	84	1	5	0.7	4.9
FCONX	Cons Inc Bond	80	1	5	0.0	10.2
FRIFX	Real Estate Inc	82	2	5	1.0	7.5
JXI	Global Utilities	82	3	5	1.8	6.9
FMSDX	Multi-Asset Inc	76	3	5	1.8	3.4
FIREX	Intern Real Estate	70	3	5	3.1	1.7
FSDIX	Div & Inc	64	3	5	2.5	1.5
IAU	Gold	58	3	3	4.5	1.8
ICLN	Glbl Clean Energy	69	4	5	6.3	2.5
BGAFX	Glbl Adv Retail	67	4	5	5.3	2.8
FPHAX	Pharmaceuticals	62	4	5	3.4	3.2
FEMKX	Em Mrkts	53	4	5	8.8	-0.2
FIGFX	Intern Growth	53	4	5	4.3	0.7
FDGRX	Growth Company	44	5	2	7.3	1.3
	Portfolio	66	2		0.8	4.7

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Mutual Fund Observer

Rebalancing

I created portfolios in Morningstar so that I can track how the actual allocation differs from the target allocation. For example, Table #6 is a hypothetical million-dollar portfolio as of January 1st. As of March 21st, the value has fallen by 11%. Dividends are approximated and added to Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond (VUSFX). There are different strategies for rebalancing portfolios of which my favorite is the variance from target allocation. For example, because bonds have performed well this year in relationship to stocks, Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund (VFISX) is now overweight 1.6 percentage points compared to the Vanguard Wellington Fund which is underweight 1.3 percentage points. Rather than rebalance these two funds, I am going to watch the markets for a while and rebalance when I have a better feel about the economy and markets.

Table #6: Vanguard Conservative Portfolio (YTD)

	Target Alloc	Start Shares	Start Value	Current Value	Current Allocation	Allocation Variance
VFIJX	7	6,600	$69,630	$70,026	7.9	0.9
VUSFX	0	-	$-	$4,011	0.5	0.5
VFISX	11	10,400	$110,136	$112,216	12.6	1.6
VBILX	12	10,200	$120,462	$119,544	13.4	1.4
VFICX	0	-	$-	$-	0.0	0.0
VWIAX	15	2,300	$152,214	$129,444	14.6	-0.4
VWELX	10	2,300	$99,774	$77,326	8.7	-1.3
VGSTX	3	1,100	$30,074	$23,771	2.7	-0.3
VGWAX	5	1,800	$50,832	$39,402	4.4	-0.6
IAU	5	3,400	$49,300	$48,382	5.4	0.4
VTABX	5	2,200	$49,764	$49,522	5.6	0.6
PRSNX	5	4,700	$50,384	$47,094	5.3	0.3
VEMBX	4	3,600	$40,104	$34,128	3.8	-0.2
VMNVX	5	1,700	$49,419	$35,768	4.0	-1.0
VEMAX	4	1,100	$40,645	$28,853	3.2	-0.8
VPGDX	9	5,300	$90,100	$69,536	7.8	-1.2
	100		$1,002,838	$889,023	100

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Morningstar

The Fidelity Conservative Portfolio has lost 12% year to date compared to 29% for the S&P 500.

Table #7: Fidelity Conservative Portfolio (YTD)

	Target Allocation	Start Shares	Start Value	Current Value	Current Allocation	Allocation Variance
FUMBX	5	5,000	$52,650	$54,250	6.2	1.2
FCONX	0	-	$-	$5,250	0.0	0.0
FTHRX	5	4,500	$49,815	$48,420	5.5	0.5
FIKFX	15	12,600	$149,562	$140,742	16.1	1.1
FXNAX	5	4,200	$50,022	$49,770	5.7	0.7
FGOVX	10	9,500	$99,560	$104,215	11.9	1.9
FMSDX	10	8,500	$99,620	$79,815	9.1	-0.9
FWRLX	5	4,500	$50,445	$39,690	4.5	-0.5
FDEGX	5	1,000	$50,040	$36,340	4.2	-0.8
IAU	5	3,400	$49,300	$48,382	5.5	0.5
FGBFX	5	5,200	$49,972	$45,760	5.2	0.2
FEMSX	5	2,400	$49,512	$34,464	3.9	-1.1
FIGFX	5	3,100	$49,383	$36,053	4.1	-0.9
FCBFX	0	-	$-	$-	0.0	0.0
FPE	5	2,500	$50,175	$35,650	4.1	-0.9
FIREX	5	3,800	$49,438	$33,706	3.9	-1.1
FRIFX	5	4,000	$50,000	$36,760	4.2	-0.8
FIPDX	5	5,000	$50,400	$50,100	5.7	0.7
	100		$999,894	$879,367	100

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Morningstar

The Fidelity Moderate Portfolio has lost 14% year to date compared to 29% for the S&P 500.

Table #8: Fidelity Moderate Portfolio (YTD)

	Target Allocation	Start Shares	Start Value	Current Value	Current Allocation	Allocation Variance
FUMBX	10	9,500	$100,035	$103,075	12.1	2.1
FCONX	0	-	$-	$5,000	0.6	0.6
DODIX	20	14,300	$200,629	$189,761	22.2	2.2
FIKFX	6	5,100	$60,537	$56,967	6.7	0.7
JXI	8	1,400	$82,208	$61,866	7.2	-0.8
FMSDX	4	3,400	$39,848	$31,926	3.7	-0.3
FSDIX	4	2,600	$40,144	$29,822	3.5	-0.5
FDGRX	5	2,300	$49,128	$38,479	4.5	-0.5
IAU	6	4,100	$59,450	$58,343	6.8	0.8
BGAFX	7	2,400	$68,832	$57,912	6.8	-0.2
FPHAX	6	2,600	$60,606	$48,308	5.6	-0.4
FEMKX	5	1,400	$48,944	$36,582	4.3	-0.7
FIGFX	5	3,100	$49,383	$36,053	4.2	-0.8
FIREX	4	3,100	$40,331	$27,497	3.2	-0.8
FRIFX	6	4,800	$60,000	$44,112	5.2	-0.8
ICLN	4	3,400	$39,950	$29,546	3.5	-0.5
	100		$1,000,025	$855,249	100

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Morningstar

Fund Performance

Table #9: Vanguard Conservative Portfolio (YTD)

Symbol	Name	Bucket	Return 1 Mon	Return YTD	Return 12 Mon
VFIJX	GNMA	Bucket#1	0.4	1.1	5.5
VUSFX	Ultra-Shrt-Trm Bond	Bucket#1	(0.8)	(0.5)	2.1
VFISX	Shrt-Trm Treas	Bucket#1	1.7	2.2	5.2
VBILX	Interm-Term Bond	Bucket#2	(2.9)	(0.2)	6.8
VFICX	Intrmdt Invst-Grd	Bucket#2	(6.8)	(4.7)	1.9
VWIAX	Wellesley Inc	Bucket#2	(16.4)	(14.3)	(5.8)
VWELX	Wellington	Bucket#3	(23.9)	(21.9)	(11.6)
VGSTX	STAR	Bucket#3	(23.6)	(21.0)	(11.9)
VGWAX	Glbl Wellington	Bucket#3	(23.1)	(22.5)	(12.8)
IAU	iShares Gold	Defensive	(8.1)	(1.9)	13.0
VTABX	Total Intern Bond	Glbl Bond	(2.5)	(0.3)	5.0
PRSNX	Glbl Multi-Sctr Bond	Glbl Bond	(13.3)	(12.1)	(6.0)
VEMBX	Emer Mrkts Bond	Glbl Bond	(16.8)	(14.5)	(6.4)
VMNVX	Glbl Min Vol	Glbl Equty	(30.5)	(27.6)	(18.6)
VEMAX	Emer Mrkts Stock	Glbl Equty	(27.5)	(28.9)	(23.8)
VPGDX	Managed Payout	Income	(22.4)	(22.0)	(16.2)

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Morningstar

Table #10: Fidelity Conservative Portfolio (YTD)

Symbol	Name	Bucket	Return 1 Mon	Return YTD	Return 12 Mon
FUMBX	Shrt-Trm Treas Bond	Bucket#1	2.5	3.4	6.8
FCONX	Conserv Inc	Bucket#1	(1.8)	(1.5)	0.5
FTHRX	Intrmdt Bond	Bucket#2	(3.9)	(2.3)	2.6
FIKFX	Freedom Inc	Bucket#2	(7.4)	(5.7)	0.5
FXNAX	US Bond	Bucket#2	(2.3)	0.1	6.4
FGOVX	Gov Inc	Bucket#2	2.8	5.1	10.4
FMSDX	Multi-Asset Inc	Bucket#3	(20.6)	(19.2)	(7.4)
FWRLX	Wireless Portf	Bucket#4	(25.9)	(21.3)	(2.4)
FDEGX	Growth Strat	Bucket#4	(32.5)	(27.4)	(13.6)
IAU	iShares Gold	Defensive	(8.1)	(1.9)	13.0
FGBFX	Global Credit	Glbl Bond	(11.3)	(8.4)	0.4
FEMSX	Emer Mrkts Oppor	Glbl Equity	(29.9)	(30.4)	(21.1)
FIGFX	Intern Growth	Glbl Equity	(28.8)	(27.0)	(13.4)
FCBFX	Corp Bond	Income	(13.0)	(10.3)	(1.7)
FPE	Prefrd Secur & Inc	Income	(30.0)	(28.4)	(21.1)
FIREX	Intern Real Estate	Income	(33.3)	(31.8)	(22.5)
FRIFX	Real Estate Inc	Inflation	(28.9)	(26.4)	(19.1)
FIPDX	Inf-Prot Bond	Inflation	(2.7)	(0.5)	4.8

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Morningstar

Table #11: Fidelity Moderate Portfolio (YTD)

Symbol	Name	Bucket	Return 1 Mon	Return YTD	Return 12 Mon
FUMBX	Shrt-Trm Treas Bond	Bucket#1	2.5	3.4	6.8
FCONX	Conservative Inc	Bucket#1	(1.8)	(1.5)	0.5
DODIX	Dodge & Cox Inc	Bucket#2	(7.3)	(5.4)	0.8
FIKFX	Freedom Inc	Bucket#2	(7.4)	(5.7)	0.5
JXI	iShares Glbl Util	Bucket#3	(30.7)	(24.7)	(15.1)
FMSDX	Multi-Asset Inc	Bucket#3	(20.6)	(19.2)	(7.4)
FSDIX	Stratc Div & Inc	Bucket#3	(27.7)	(25.7)	(17.6)
FDGRX	Growth Company	Bucket#4	(30.0)	(21.7)	(9.3)
IAU	iShares Gold	Defensive	(8.1)	(1.9)	13.0
BGAFX	Glbl Adv Retail	Glbl Equity	(27.2)	(15.9)	(3.3)
FPHAX	Pharmaceuticals	Glbl Equity	(22.0)	(20.3)	(6.3)
FEMKX	Emer Mrkts	Glbl Equity	(25.9)	(25.3)	(13.8)
FIGFX	Intern Growth	Glbl Equity	(28.8)	(27.0)	(13.4)
FIREX	Intern Real Estate	Income	(33.3)	(31.8)	(22.5)
FRIFX	Real Estate Inc	Inflation	(28.9)	(26.4)	(19.1)
ICLN	Glbl Clean Energy	Inflation	(39.0)	(26.0)	(11.4)

Click to enlarge

Source: Created by the Author Based on Morningstar

Closing

Readers have asked for specific portfolios that they can follow. That is a hard task because there are so many possible variations. I simplified my own portfolios to these. The concepts are valid, and these portfolios can be scaled to suit the needs of individuals.

This year, I made several changes at the start of the downturn. I reduced risk in my Safe Bucket by selling off volatile funds early. Having a set strategy that is not dependent up market swings made it easier to avoid the emotions associated with a sudden bear market. Secondly, I switched my new contributions to the S&P 500. Finally, I set up one of my smaller accounts as a Charles Schwab Intelligent Portfolio (Robo Advisor) to see how well I like it.

Best wishes go out to those on the front line dealing with COVID-19, the people infected with it and their families and friends, and those affected by the hardships that we are facing.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in BGAFX, DODIX, FCBFX, FDEGX, FDGRX, FEMKX, FEMSX, FGBFX, FGOVX, FIGFX, FIKFX, FIREX, FMSDX, FPE, FPHAX, FRIFX, FSDIX, FTHRX, FWRLX, FSNAX, IAU, ICLN, JXI, PRSNX, VASIX, VBILX, VEMAX, VEMBX, VFICX, VFIJX, VFISX, VGSTX, VGWAX, VMNVX, VPGDX, VTABX, VWELX, VWIAX over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.