Kinder Morgan: Mr. Market Never Learns
Summary
- Kinder Morgan's stock price is down significantly from its recent highs.
- The company's management just increased the dividend 5%, pushing the yield (as of May 1) past 7%.
- Due to Kinder Morgan's diversification, the cash flow fears of Mr. Market, which did not materialize during the 2015 crash, will not happen this time either.
- Capital project profitability has increased and insiders are buying.
- The impressive 7% yield is accompanied with strong share price appreciation potential, which makes investing very appealing for dividend investors.
- Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Dividend Opportunities get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Get started today »
Co-produced with Long Player
Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) has seen its stock dumped, along with other midstream companies, during the recent severe oil selloffs. However, as we'll see throughout this article, things are different this time around. The balance sheet is in better shape than 2016 and the Trans Mountain Expansion issues are long gone.
Source: Seeking Alpha Website April 27, 2020
Clearly the common shares were lumped into the rest of the oil and gas industry during the most recent sell-off. Given the way the stock is acting, the market is pricing in a severe decline in earnings potential, or maybe even something worse.
Management did announce a change in expectations:
For 2020, KMI's budget contemplated DCF of approximately $5.1 billion ($2.24 per common share) and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7.6 billion. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic-related reduced energy demand and the sharp decline in commodity prices, the company now expects DCF to be below plan by approximately 10 percent and Adjusted EBITDA to be below plan by approximately 8 percent. As a result, KMI now expects to end 2020 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 4.6 times, consistent with our long-term objective of around 4.5 times. Because considerable uncertainty exists with respect to the future pace and extent of a global economic recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic... (there are) assumptions and sensitivities for impacts on our business that may be affected by that uncertainty.
Source: Kinder Morgan 1Q Earnings press release
The immediate impacts of COVID-19 on KMI, along with the associated collapse in oil prices, are quite clear. The company is doing an impressive job to mitigate the impact. However, it's still expecting a 10% decline in DCF along with debt higher than previously forecast. However, with a more than 30% decline in share price YTD, the market has already more than priced that in. It's also worth noting 2020 will clearly be the worst year for COVID-19 related effects, with sharp recoveries expected in 2021.
Handling an unprecedented collapse with an only 10% decline in DCF highlights how well management has positioned the company for any market.
Additionally, in comparison to the 2015-2016 MLP collapse, there's reason to be optimistic. This time around there are no balance sheet issues. Not only is the debt ratio materially better, but management anticipates that the debt ratio will remain within management's goals during the current crisis. The cash flow and EBITDA drubbing expected by the market does not appear to be materializing soon. Investors can expect management to "house clean" the balance sheet by impairing anything remotely needing impairment. However, those types of charges are non cash and do not affect the ability to return cash to shareholders.
Source: KMI, Kinder Morgan Pipeline
Back in 2016, they did write down assets, but the market fears were not realized and some key measures like cash flow barely decreased. The business is marked by long-term take-or-pay contracts that have a minimum commitment. Therefore, their cash rolls in unless the industry downturn lasts long enough to impact a significant amount of contract renewal negotiations, which would take several years. Just as the market mis-reacted last time, more than pricing in a complete collapse, we feel the same is true this time.
Coronavirus and related challenges probably will not last anything close to long enough to see this occur. Especially since the current president has a very strong tendency for fiscal stimulus, which will help expedite any potential recovery. In the meantime, the pieces appear to be in place for a prompt recovery once this virus crisis is in the rearview mirror. The company's share price recovered by 80% in the nine months post bottom in the 2015-2016 crash and there's no reason to see this time as different.
Past and Future Operations
In so many ways, the midstream business is the utility business of the energy industry. Their long-term and take-or-pay contracts provide an unusual amount of earnings visibility in what's normally a very volatile industry. This means that their management rarely misses their guidance by any significant amount. In a world with negative oil prices, from peaks of $50 / barrel, the fact that the company is only forecasting a 10% decline in DCF is significant.
Kinder Morgan was one of the foremost leaders in exporting natural gas. Even though they tend to emphasize natural gas handling, the company grows their total volumes handled over time, which should continue. Similar to every other previous energy boom, the midstream capacity lagged the production and now the coronavirus crisis should give the midstream industry time to effectively "catch up" with production capabilities.
Source: Kinder Morgan March 2020, Investor Presentation
While many other management teams discuss their possible expansion into a given area, Kinder Morgan already has long been connected to some of the lowest cost oil basins in the United States. The "hot" basin has periodically moved ever since unconventional oil and gas production came into existence. That access to low cost production means, even as production declines elsewhere, the company is likely to see continued demand for its midstream assets.
The company also has contracted considerable exporting abilities and oftentimes also has sold excess capacity for a profit. In any event these well-located assets rarely suffer from a lack of demand. When others talk about the shipping congestion in the Gulf of Mexico, they are one of the prime causes of that congestion. When the actual time came to export natural gas, they were well positioned to begin. Right now, they have a position that few can achieve when exporting natural gas production. This is especially true in an industry where new large projects are increasingly politicized or delayed.
Their diversification has led to a long list of "A grade" (for excellent) rated customers that are very unlikely to get into significant financial trouble. These customers generally do not suffer as much as the smaller and mid-sized producers. Therefore, investors can expect superior and more visible performance during the current crisis when compared to their smaller peers. If any customer happens to have financial challenges, the consequences for Kinder Morgan are very unlikely to be material thanks to this diversification.
The company's business grew last year, despite asset sales clouding that growth picture. Even though this midstream giant is probably past the days of growing more than 10% a year, the business will still grow and their generous dividend, as mentioned below, also will grow.
The one thing that has not happened much in the last few years is acquisitions to complement organic growth. They had a long history of acquisitions until the 2016 downturn caused lenders and the bond market to tighten their requirements for loaning money. At that point they began to reduce debt and strengthen their balance sheet to bring the company into compliance with the new lending requirements. As a result, Kinder Morgan was forced to turn to more controllable and steady organic growth.
However, with that said, Kinder Morgan's financial strength means it's uniquely positioned to make acquisitions from competitors going bankrupt during this crisis. The company could manage to strengthen its midstream asset portfolio with "bottom of the barrel" acquisition prices.
First Quarter Results
Several years ago, after the 2015 collapse forced Kinder Morgan to stop paying out its entire DCF as dividend, and pay for growth internally, Kinder Morgan's management highlighted a plan to return its dividends toward previous levels. COVID-19 has thrown that plan into doubt, but Kinder Morgan did manage to increase its dividends by 5% in its most recent earnings release, as many other companies are cutting dividends, putting its yield (as of May 1) at more than 7%.
Management had some thoughtful commentary on their dividend:
The board deliberated thoughtfully with regard to this quarter's dividend," said KMI Executive Chairman Richard D. Kinder. "While we have the financial wherewithal to pay our previously planned dividend increase, with significant coverage, in unprecedented times such as these, the wise choice is to preserve flexibility and balance sheet capacity. Consequently, we are not increasing the dividend to the $1.25 annualized that we projected, under far different circumstances, in July of 2017. Nevertheless, as a sign of our confidence in the strength of our business and the security of our cash flows, we are increasing the dividend to $1.05 annualized, a five percent increase. In doing so, we believe we have struck the proper balance between maintaining balance sheet strength and returning value to our shareholders. We remain committed to increasing the dividend to $1.25 annualized. Assuming a return to normal economic activity, we would expect to make that determination when the board meets in January 2021 to determine the dividend for the fourth quarter of 2020.
Source: Kinder Morgan 1Q Earnings press release
Obviously, the effects of the latest bug have put many companies into uncharted territory. Therefore, management decided to take an understandably conservative route to increase the dividend while still retaining more cash flow than anticipated. This is how industry leaders become more predictable. They do what's necessary "up front" and then seldom must surprise the market later.
One additional and subtle point shared by management here is that the company has stated, based on the last sentence, it won't look at increasing its dividend again until January 2021.
Valuation
The current price-to-earnings ratio is about 16, which is below the market average for this reliable performer with a long history of growth until 2016 forced a debt reduction strategy. Once this coronavirus crisis dissipates, investors should expect their growth to resume at least in the mid-single digit levels, which will help support the valuation returning to higher multiples. This is only logical given the S&P 500's current P/E ratio of more than 20 despite that many of the S&P 500 companies are much more susceptible to COVID-19 as compared to Kinder Morgan.
Their net debt is just over $33 billion, and when combined with their current market value of $33 billion (as of April 26), the enterprise value is $66 billion. Adjusted-EBITDA guidance is now about $7 billion for the full year of 2019. Therefore, this quality company can be had for less than 10 times last year's adjusted-EBITDA, while their enterprise to distributable cash flow ratio is less than 15 ($66 enterprise value to $4.6 guided distributable cash flow).
Return Prospects
They have a forward dividend yield around 7%, which alone is an equal return that many stocks provide in total over time, even if future growth is not forthcoming. The well-covered dividend and lower debt load combined with the investment grade credit rating provide for considerable dividend income safety, even after raising it as planned. There are not many companies that will be raising their dividends no matter their previous dividend level, which places them in a very elite class.
There's also the potential for further stock price appreciation when the market rallies after the coronavirus crisis is resolved. The dividend returns plus at least a mid-single digit long-term growth provide a combined return in excess of 12% per annum, which is a fantastic return for a moderately low-risk stock. An additional consideration is a raise of the dividend to the original goal of $1.25 per year once the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus dissipates. An additional dividend bump not only provides more income for the current investment but also would lead to more price appreciation, with your yield on cost as an invest at 8.5%.
A far more reasonable valuation would be 15 times for their enterprise to adjusted EBITDA once this crisis passes and oil prices recover. This would represent a share price appreciation of a very impressive 73% to $25. When this potential appreciation is combined with their high dividend yield, the current stock price offers investors an excellent chance to at least double their money over the next five years.
Insiders
Insiders are clearly seeing value and taking advantage of the latest market qualms to add to their holdings, as shown below.
Richard Kinder, Chairman, purchased about 600,000 and 800,000 shares in the months of February and March respectively, at higher prices than the current stock price, as shown below. As chairman and the owner of 256 million shares, clearly few have as good an insight into the company as him. He is, after all, the owner of more than 10% of the shares outstanding (the latest quarterly press release showed an average of 2.2 billion shares outstanding).
Source: OpenInsider.com April 17, 2020
Risks
Investing in the common shares of Kinder Morgan has risks that investors should pay attention to, because like all equity stocks, they are not a risk-free investment.
Kinder Morgan's single greatest risk is a long-term continuation in low oil prices. As COVID-19 has highlighted, investors always can expect the unexpected, and while we do expect oil prices to recover within the next year, there's a chance that they do not. In the case that prices do not recover for several years, a remote but existent possibility, volumes could decline drastically, and Kinder Morgan could have a tough time renewing contracts.
That could force a substantial drop in DCF for Kinder Morgan and potentially require dividend cuts.
Takeaways
Clearly insiders are excited about the future of this company as the recent coronavirus challenges are not going to change the long-term view. This contrasts with Mr. Market who's afraid of an earnings train-wreck in the current year. That earnings Armageddon never happened in 2016 and it will not be happening now. The company's initial 1Q 2020 results help to reaffirm the thesis.
Management is guiding to the decreases shown above along with the caution that the guidance will be updated as the fiscal year progresses. This company has a long list of top-notch customers as well as take-or-pay contracts to safeguard the revenue. Rarely do midstream companies have volatile earnings and cash flow. This does not appear to be one of those rare times.
During March 2020, KMI repurchased approximately 3.6 million common shares for approximately $50 million at an average price of $13.94 per share.
Source: Kinder Morgan 1Q Earnings press release
Shareholders now know that management considers its stock to be a bargain. Share repurchase programs work best when the company stock is very cheap. By most measures this stock has been undervalued ever since management decided to reduce the balance sheet leverage in 2016. Management will retain some flexibility to continue repurchasing shares until the market properly values the common shares. The share repurchases enhance already bright dividend growth prospects.
In fact, with recent interest rates supporting low-cost debt, and the dividend increasing past 7%, the company has the unique opportunity to increase its returns by buying back shares.
As long as Richard Kinder remains in charge, investors are in good hands. He founded the company and had an excellent growth and dividend increase record until lending conditions changed in 2016. Since then he has managed to get the company out of Canada at a decent price, while reducing debt to satisfactory levels and maintaining the important investment-grade credit ratings. Expect this successful track record to resume in the future once this coronavirus crisis passes.
The market will return to normal in the future and their current stock price offers a bargain that does not happen every day. When a good solid company like Kinder Morgan provides this kind of return, there are few reasons for dividend investors to consider companies with higher leverage and more risks. At the current price, they would make an excellent core position for many dividend investors. They have long been regarded as one of the more reliable and best in the industry and this will continue for the foreseeable future.
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Comments (289)
Yes and Q1 had two good months before it hit the fan.
Q2 might be 35:1
There is no Jet Fuel market and pipe feeders are collapsing.


To present, beginning: KMI SPY
Feb-11 -3.74 10.92
Jan-13 -7.57 11.84
Jan-15 -14.32 8.61
Jan-17 -6.5 9.65
(source: www.dividendchannel.com/...Now it does look better now than in years' past, but Kinder and KMI's performance over the past decade has been nothing short of abysmal.


Jan 2016 4.17 11.15
Jan 2018 -3.46 5.62
Jan 2019 3.7 14.4


be optimistic for a better economy which will come. It always has.





























For me the dividend is safe.






Ebitda: from 7.2b to 7.0b
Dividend: from 2.00 to 1.05
Debt x: from 5.6 to 4.5
Div coverage: from 0 to 200%
Project financing: 100% debt and equity to 100% cashThe investment thesis is the same in turn of energy but the financials are way stronger. You do not invest in Kmi if you do not fundamentally believe in the nat gas thesis.




Products (products pipelines) and certainly some exsposure to oil prices (co2) but 65% of the company is nat gas.People stayed home and used more electricity which offset the loss of nat gas my the industrials. Why do you think nat gas volumes went up.And look as the country reopens demand for nat gas increases. As some people continue to stay home and temperatures increase air conditioning load will go up.Lastly as I have repeated many times any cuts in capital projects or just not doing capital projects can go toward stock repurchases. With a $2-3b excess cash for grow they could reduce the float in the stock by 4-5% each year. Eventually this will pay off.


