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S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Bull Market Rally Stalls At Resistance

Summary

  • The S&P closes out April with the best gain in 30 years and not many believe in this market.
  • Some analysts now forecast a “Wavy” economic recovery. So far, the stock market has responded with a "V" shaped rebound.
  • Knowing how the stock market works goes a long way in being successful. It has been, and continues to be a time to be "selective".
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Savvy Investor get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Get started today »

"I don't care how many cold, clinical, unfeeling, and antiseptic spreadsheets you use to run the money, Fear and Greed are undefeated” .... Josh Brown

Times have changed. The 50th Jazz & Heritage Festival in the city of New Orleans would typically have been in full swing this week, instead, the city remains in lockdown due to COVID19. Not even the devastation from Hurricane Katrina could cause postponement of this iconic event. Instead of mass celebration perhaps there will be some cheering as the U.S economy slowly re-opens.

Sadly there will be many that will have little to cheer about. The grim reaper in the form of a nationwide lockdown has sealed the fate of many. Despite the substantial level of relief being offered, many small businesses, particularly those that are leveraged, may still have to file for bankruptcy. The mountain of money that has been approved for distribution, while well-intended was never going to solve the issue. The sheer magnitude of the problem provides the numbing facts of what is about to take place.

There are about 28 million small businesses, but only 1.7-2 million loans have originated, and the average loan size of about $206,000 suggests that the mom-and-pop shops have not been major recipients. The handwriting is on the wall and is sending a dire message to many. For those that can hang on and get through this first body blow, there will be numerous obstacles to overcome.

Even after all states have fully reopened, psychological barriers will stop certain industries from joining the initial rebound parade. With more than 90% of all citizens practicing social distancing since March, not all consumers will be quick to get back into the swing of things and be involved in a venue that invites a crowd.

We will all be

Information when you need it. In this time of uncertainty, investors cannot wait for “weekly” updates. The Savvy Investor Marketplace service has offered "Daily" updates since the coronavirus turmoil began. 

Don't own stocks making new highs? Didn't have a hedge in place during market weakness that produced a 24% gain? Savvy Investors were able o navigate the wild months of March and April with success.

Back in a Bull market or ready to test the lows? The opinions are everywhere, and for the most part, leave investors confused.

My "balanced" view has paid off handsomely. Why stay confused? The time to join is now.

This article was written by

Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
18.66K Followers

Fear & Greed Trader is an independent financial adviser and professional investor with 35 years of experience in all market conditions. His strategies focus on achieving positive returns and preserving capital during bear and bull markets and he has a documented track record of calling the equity market correctly for the 10+ years.

He is the leader of the investing group Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long EVERY STOCK/ETF IN THE SAVVY PORTFOLIO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article contains my views of the equity market, it reflects the strategy and positioning that is comfortable for me. IT IS NOT A BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY. Of course, it is not suited for everyone, as each individual situation is unique. Hopefully, it sparks ideas, adds some common sense to the intricate investing process, and makes investors feel calmer, putting them in control. The opinions rendered here, are just that – opinions – and along with positions can change at any time. As always I encourage readers to use common sense when it comes to managing any ideas that I decide to share with the community. Nowhere is it implied that any stock should be bought and put away until you die. Periodic reviews are mandatory to adjust to changes in the macro backdrop that will take place over time.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (398)

A
When considering what should still be dismal economics for the months ahead, with so many economic variables associated with unemployment, and then seeing the stock market's rise, it would appear that this stock market's rise is riding on nothing more than HOPE. And, as everyone knows, HOPE is not a good investment strategy.
m
@A-ASTON

FWIW, Dr. Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton guy, was on the tube yesterday predicting a significant bull rally going forward due to expectation that the virus situation will be overcome soon and that the economy will rebound significantly given all the money the govt is sending out in such a low interest rate environment.

He maintains the market is pricing now for what it sees happening 12 months ahead. He never used words like "hope" or "maybe" or "if only" or even "perhaps" in his offering. He was all-in Bull.

I don't know what his track record is, but I do know he's somewhat respected.
A
@mrjustice

"... expectation that the virus situation will be overcome soon ..."

Unfortunately, that still fits into the category of just HOPE; at this point in time.
m
@A-ASTON

"Glass half full" vs "Glass half empty" perception....
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@IamTheWolf,

As an expert in ThinkOrSwim, perhaps you can do a quick scan for some popular ETFs with nascent wX-up. :)

I have just noticed wX-up for the Consumer sector (e.g. XLY, FDIS) as of the close today (2020-05-08), auguring well for further ascent to wR5+ within the next 2 to 4 weeks. :)

I have keen on taking up new position in RTH at the next attractive entry point for my long-term taxable account.

It top holdings have undergone a huge re-vamping, all for the better. :)
Now it consists mainly of mega-caps retailers, no need to worry about bankruptcy anytime soon like Lord & Taylor, JC Penney or Neiman Marcus ...
IamTheWolf profile picture
@JC ROCHESTER I would love to help but not a TOS user/expert. Sorry.
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@IamTheWolf,

You are way too modest. :)
Looking forward to your wX-up findings soon.

In the same vein, would you be kind enough to investigate, either via ThinkOrSwim or your Metric spreadsheet, what the minimum rise would be for $SPX by the close next Monday (2020-05-11) to generate a wX-up signal ?

It is close but no cigar this week.
I am devoured by anticipation ...
IamTheWolf profile picture
@JC ROCHESTER The minimum value (whether we go up or down for next Friday's close) would be 2904.74 based on my spreadsheet.

Next week's start if equal to this week's close would surpass the minimum since we're at 2929.80.

You may ask, what? Answer is the trajectory of MACD and Signal are already heading towards each other and the latest value continues that to the point of outweighing the value being dropped in lieu of replacement.

So...even if the week closes DOWN, but remains above 2904.74 it will trigger wX-up.

I truly don't know/use ThinkorSwim. You may be thinking of another follower. If you'd like to have me look at a FEW etfs I'll grab data for them and reply with respective values.

Have a good weekend, and thanks for your assistance and generosity to us all.
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@igor555,

Congratulations to your FDN, which now has recovered sharply with scarcely a respite all the way to less than 2% from its all-time high in established in 2020-02. :)

Trust you have added more shares aggressively to FDN and IGV around the bear market low on 2020-03-23 the same time as your TQQQ, now up +122% in 7 weeks .

Never let a bear market go to waste, which is invariably just a brief flash in the pan in the bigger scheme of things for the major indices in the long haul ... :)
i
@JC ROCHESTER

I dont have too much FDN in my long-term portfolio. Its only a few shares from when I had E*trade and it was commission-free over there. By the way I noticed there is a 3X version on FDN. Its called WEBL but the volume is very tiny as its fairly new.

Currently I add TECL, TAWK, IGV, and FBSOX in the "tech" space to my long-term portfolio.

I mostly added TQQQ at the bottom in March. Its a no-trainer during a bear market or bull market:)
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@igor555,

Absolutely thrilled to hear that you have taken full advantage of the brief bear market just past to populate your portfolio with solid technology vehicles while clueless Nervous Nellies were frantically dumping shares at the bottom. :)

You can count on Mr. Market always has your back in the long run.
i
@JC ROCHESTER

I have to give most of the credit to you. I was just following your wisdom of adding diversified broad-market and sector ETFs during blood baths :)

I was looking at cloud ETFs this weekend since these companies are doing well and should be doing well in the future.

I came across WCLD and CLOU. They have a good mix of companies.
I can't find an offering from Fidelity.

What are your thoughts on this space?
M
Just couldn’t pick a better day than today to sell your long positions.

A true gift!
m
Or maybe next Wednesday would be a better day to sell.....since we're just guessing.
M
At this point, everything is a guess. 

No different than Black Jack.

Either stay with a hot hand or play the odds and split.
Gelston profile picture
although I agree with @Mwmarkwilliams that the market seems rich, there is another sign that the party is not over
www.mcoscillator.com/...
M
Very interesting @lookingforlogic.

Thanks for posting.
BlueSkyForever profile picture
This website gives information on the US, and also the world. Click on the "yesterday" just above the chart to get all the numbers as the "today" info is not complete.

You can see NY & NJ have a very high death rate - over 7% when you divide confirmed cases by the total deaths. This is while we are in lockdown, which means the virus was already circulating widely and we are having a hard time containing it. Naturally, the actual number of people who have or had the disease is far higher than the number that have tested positive. It does not matter when we open up for business here in NJ....people are going to continue to isolate. It will take more testing, a vaccine, and better drugs to treat the symptoms before most people have the confidence to get back in movie theaters, gyms. I do think we can go to the beach, parks. Shopping with masks is going to be with us for a long time.

The virus is getting spread everywhere, so be careful. It's just a matter of time until it shows up in your neighborhood. The tests we need, and the tracing, are not happening. We could have responded like S. Korea, but it's too late now.

Plenty of time to take advantage of cheap stocks though.

www.worldometers.info/...
l
@BlueSkyForever

Yep. That's one of the best sources. I monitor it daily.
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@TSampson,

Pursuant to your active interests in constantly looking for opportunities with attractive risk-to-reward profiles, the following sectors have nascent bullish set-ups today (2020-05-05):

[1] OX+
EEM, XLE, ITB, TAWK, EWY

[2] wX-up
IHI, IHF, XLY/FIDS

[3] wOX+
XLV

Others are welcome to add more to the list. :)

The V-shaped recovery path similar to that of 2019-01 continues to unfold with high confidence.
As noted in past posts, chance of re-visiting the bear market low set in place on 2020-03-23 is close to ZERO. :)
TSampson profile picture
@JC ROCHESTER Thanks JC. I have been waiting for R5- for XLV,VHT after Xdown and wp+. Looks to touch k- first and then continue to R5-. I am up smartly on VHT now and will likely sell at k+. I did not get to add SOXX, still holding my large QQQ and VOO though. SOXX looks to be barely Xdown at the moment, not sure if I should jump on it. Thanks again
T
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@TSampson,

Yes, Healthcare sector is expected to be the leader this year in view of the Coronavirus scare.

In a strong up trend, you can enhance your return with 3X CURE if you so wish at the next ideal entry R5- zone. :)
TSampson profile picture
@JC ROCHESTER Software stocks IGV look to be the new leader over SOXX in determining the trajectory of NDX. Staples are on sale today. I moved my VPU buy to -k
T
M
The market has already figured out the scam.
M
That's funny I have no idea what it figured out except for that there's a FED put under the market like we have never seen in our existence (and there's more where that came from).

Peace.
M
The scam is the virus effects and the tricked response.
johnfairplay profile picture
The gigantic amount of conflicting information is simply astounding. Just today, I've seen articles indicating that Covid-19 has mutated to "become less dangerous, and "become more contagious."
diroha profile picture
In case there is any doubt about the amount of money the government is throwing at this problem, let me enlighten everyone. My son who became unemployed immediately at the start of the lockdown is receiving the equivalent of his after tax salary (75K) and has just received 3 weeks of catchup from the time Congress passed the law until he was unemployed w/out the benefit.$600/wk, $1800.00. This extra "stipend" lasts until the end of July should he remain unemployed. His cost of living is reduced because there is no more commutation, dry cleaning, eating lunches out etc...... The economy is going to be flush when things open up again and I still believe more money will be forthcoming from the Federal Government over the summer and into the fall. Everyone can draw their own conclusions where and how this money will be spent or used, I am just giving everyone a heads up.
@diroha
I know for a fact what you say is true. I hope someone with a little bit of that cash buys my Harley. I could use the money to pay my medical insurance for the year.

It is interesting to me that forty years ago I would never have thought and did not for-see. That someones medical insurance would cost more than ones 30 year mortgage payment. Or even better that ones property tax per month would be more than ones house payment. Interesting times we live in. I sure hope the FED's inflation metric is not met anytime soon. This 2% inflation is killing me.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
d,

thanks for sharing 👍
IamTheWolf profile picture
Thanks for sharing @diroha

As of EOD Friday the U.S. Treasury had a balance of over $1T on the Fed's Balance Sheet ready to be disbursed. That is about $700B-$800B more than the same date 1 year ago.

The funds have been raised (lots of Fed buying) and the Treasury has not yet injected the money to recipients via bank deposits. The time lag of the process, as your son is experiencing, will keep things afloat for now.
l
Reading through the comments and seeing arguments that the Hong Kong Flu was much worse, and thus our response to COVID-19 is a dramatic over-reaction. I see this conclusion supported by the author of this article.

The Hong Kong flu caused 100,000 U.S. deaths in two waves over three years.

COVID-19 has caused almost 70,000 U.S. deaths in three months.

Have you completely lost your capacity for analytical thinking, rational thought, and logical conclusions?

Did political ideology and bias do this to you? If not, what is it?
A
@lookingforlogic

"""Have you completely lost your capacity for analytical thinking, rational thought, and logical conclusions?"""

Contrary to what you think we actually try our very best. I do not have all the answers but I do try to pose some questions and listen to people like @Tiki Bar Capital and others. Am I biased? Yes I am biased because I only have long positions in the stock market. I have some but not a whole lot of ready cash to buy more select stocks but I am currently "sitting on my hands".

"""Did political ideology and bias do this to you? If not, what is it?"""

I am trying my best not to allow political ideology to obstruct my investing theses. Politics is noise. However I must admit I prefer the republican side over the democratic side simply because I do think the republicans are more pro business. AOC and Elizabeth Warren? Nahh...not really.

S&P500 bottomed March 23rd and have risen considerably since. To me that signals Mr. Market is quite optimistic about the future right now. How speedy will the reopening of societies around the world be? Hard to answer but if normalization drags on stumbling over roadblocks all over the place Mr. Markets mood could change.

My guess is Mr. Market currently works overdrive contemplating the following questions among many others:

---What is the real mortality rate of Covid-19?
---How dangerous is Covid-19 for the healthy sub60 years tranche of the polulation?
---Where are the Covid-19 death toll currently and where is it trending?
---How will the currently observed reduction in reported Covid-19 deaths influence the speed of the reopening of the economy?
---How will the politics of infighting between republicans and democrats influence the speed of the reopening process?
---What is the probability of a second wave?
---What is the probability of a second wave resulting in a lockdown 2.0?
---What are the long term negative consequences on small business resulting from a prolonged lockdown?
---What damage to the small business sector will not be easily reversed?
---What psychological and financial damage has been done to certain segments of society currently being thrown under the bus? How will this type of damage influence labour participation rate long term?
---What is the probability of effective treatment being developed allowing society to co-exist with the virus?
---What is the probability of society learning to co-exist with the virus in an environment where no effective treatment is available?
---How long until a vaccine is available and how effective will a vaccine be?
---How will the current regime of social distancing influence productivity in airline industries and other "people-sensitive" sectors? Remember Warren Buffett sold BRKS holdings of airline industry stocks.
---Which sectors of the economy will be the long term winners and which will be the long term losers of the current processes in society?
---How long until people revolt against lockdown? Will they revolt?
---How afraid are people of Covid-19 and how will peoples fear evolve among all these moving parts when moving forward in time?
---How will the media industry influence people in the months to come?

These are among the questions Mr. Market are busy contemplating 24/7. Calibration and recalibration continously.
l
@A norwegian guy

All good points, and good perspective I agree with. And I, too, am only long.

I was specifically pointing out the irrational conclusions some are reaching in comparing the Hong Kong flu and COVID-19, and the global responses to the two.

Your response is helpful in making my point because it begs the bigger question:

Being so obviously flawed with a simple, fact-based comparison, what does this imply for the challenges of analyzing the difficult, multi-factorial ones you listed?
@A norwegian guy
Wow that is a lot of how too's and you are quite blessed. Others are asking;
How do I feed my family
How can my business survive
How will I pay all my bills................. list is too long

Well I would list more but I need to get in the shower. I have work to do so I can pay my bills. I'll check back when I'm done.
z
Hi FGT ... thank you for another valuable Weekly Update.

I saw something new at the end of this week's Update ......

> " ...... Didn't have a hedge in place during market weakness that produced a 24% gain? Savvy Investors were able to navigate the wild months of March and April with success. "

I also noticed the March 14th Update had the " NO hedges " disclaimer removed ... and I meant to ask about it at the time. However the March 7th Update still had " NO hedges " there.

So did you start hedging mid-March ? Inverse ETF's ? Or sell and raise cash to put to work after the decline ? It would be interesting to hear your approach and decision process. My apologies in advanced if I missed this info in the Updates.

No update on hedging since the post on April 13th ... seekingalpha.com/... . Not trying to trade the index swings. Continue to re-mix the portfolio for the "new world we live in". I did stop putting hedge profits accumulated since January to work because I think there will be more ebb-and-flow, versus a continued straight line.

Good trading ! Stay safe !
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
zdave


i was short the VIX producing a 20+% gain that is no secret

but my

other strategies are there for subscribers eyes and ears
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@NIRP, @igor555, @IamTheWolf, @a_zaks

Confirmation of nascent wX-up is on pace to realize by the end of this week (ending on 2020-05-08) for $NDX/QQQ, XLY/FDIS and IHI, thereby allowing further ascent to their respective wR5+ destination and beyond :)

Institutional managers continue to favor the 3 pillar growth sectors in deploying their cash aggressively, namely, Technology, Healthcare/Biotech and Consumers.

Eventual X-up in USO will add more fuel to the current rally.
IamTheWolf profile picture
Thanks @JC ROCHESTER My unfilled limit for adding more TQQQ at -1ATR today sits idle, but I'll gladly await the suggested outcome for current holding.

I did the same for SOXL, but for that switched to a market order and wanted to add to last week's initial buy.

I appreciate your attentiveness and guidance.
JC ROCHESTER profile picture
@IamTheWolf,

The extreme breadth Z- contrarian buy signal flashed last Friday (2020-05-01) is working is magic again today. :)

$NDX continues to hold onto its supremacy above other major indices.
Upside destination to K+ as a consequence of its recent bullish "kiss up" pattern has not yet been fulfilled.

Both generals and soldiers are pressing onward and forward ...

My itchy fingers have wandered off to pick up DEFN at $9.5. :)
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
JC

"""Institutional managers continue to favor the 3 pillar growth sectors in deploying their cash aggressively, namely, Technology, Healthcare/Biotech and Consumers.""""

👍

i will add most mgrs are playing in "select" consumer names
s
Steve As Always fantastic work. I particularly liked your observations that we are not correcting from Excesses and that we will be looking for Growth in a Low Growth World. Thanks for always providing Balance so investors do not let emotions or headlines drive their behavior. -Mike
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
Mike

thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule to chime in,,

Safe travels
johnfairplay profile picture
Fantastic group of super-negative headlines in the "Markets" section this morning.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
john


interesting

thanks

👍
Truth_AndMovement profile picture
"Let us not forget the initial speculation on what might occur is why we are sitting here concerned about the collapse of the economy today."

i sure as hell will never forget. how could anyone?

the United States was suckered into embarking on this biggest self own of the century, based on flawed models from professional quacks and the daily shelling of media fear...now that the true numbers about the virus have emerged, and now that Sweden is showing the entire world that shutdowns have done NOTHING other than delay herd immunity, how long before our incompetent leaders admit their mistake? or will we see continued shut downs because admitting mistakes is politically costly this close to an election? or will the overwhelming evidence supporting the immediate cessation of the shutdowns rouse these troglodytes from their intellectual slumber and re-open the country?

all answers will be revealed in the next episode of the lamest season of The Twilight Zone....
A
@Truth_AndMovement @lookingforlogic @Fear & Greed Trader @Tiki Bar Capital @

We are a long way from a vaccine so basically the current optimism of Mr. Market must be based on the assumption we will learn to co-exist with the virus. The strategy of the world is basically as follows: Lets open up slowly where we deem it most safe --- wait a couple of weeks and see what happens ---rinse repeat. Also I am sure Mr. Market is well aware that some states open up faster than other states which could make this testing the waters approach somewhat more efficient.

Hard for me to judge whether Mr. Market is gauging this correctly or not. Interestingly the majority of the population in my country Norway supports the "safety first"/"conservative approach to reopening. Then again maybe not that surprising given the media covering of the dangers of Covid-19.

Conspiracy theories...Well...It is in my genes to distrust authority whereas most people are predisposed to trust figures of authority. From a logical point of view the trusting people gets it right and I get it wrong --- when in Rome do as the romans.

Still researching some trading strategies and think i might be on to something. However I doubt it still...

Train hard and stay fit!
Total Return Investor profile picture
@Fear & Greed Trader Could you please explain your grading scale. Apparently it ranges from no thumbs up, to 2-5 thumbs up (👍👍), to some sun-shaded smiley faces (😎😎😎), to a mixture of smileys and thumbs up (😎👍👍👍👍👍), and finally to the nuclear option (👍X100). Have you considered a thumbs-down option, or a sad face? Inquiring minds want to know! (Just messin' with ya. Thank you for providing a weekly touchstone of reality in a world gone insane!)
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
TRI

I wish there was some method to my madness when using the 👍😎

but there isn't

i have contemplated using 👎😒

and may roll them out next week
johnfairplay profile picture
Eventually, a new Rosetta Stone will be unearthed and all will be made clear.
Gelston profile picture
@Callum_Thomas
runs an online poll for 24 hours every weekend from his bunker in New Zealand.
This week he has about 30% bulls and 70% bears, as lopsided a result as I can remember

If you like people to follow for business, he is excellent. I know Steve has referenced his work.
Gelston profile picture
Final result 73% bears
Callum confirms this is a new record.
Guess it's time to buy?
Total Return Investor profile picture
As of this morning, the US COVID death count is 67,448 (= 204 deaths per million). During the 1957-58 Asian flu pandemic, the US suffered 116,000 flu deaths (CDC). Given that our population in 1958 was 174.9 mil (vs. 331 mil today), US deaths per million from Asian flu was a whopping 663, over three times our current COVID deaths per million.

Life during the Asian flu pandemic went on pretty much as normal, very much in contrast to how we have responded to COVID over the last two months. Here are some excepts from a former speechwriter for two NYC mayors.

"I’ve lived through epidemics before, but they didn’t crash the stock market, wreck a booming economy, and shut down international travel. They didn’t stop the St. Patrick’s Day parade or the NCAA basketball tournament, and they didn’t drop the curtain on Broadway shows. . . . My first encounter with a global pandemic came in October 1957, when I spent a week in my college infirmary with a case of the H2N2 virus, known at the time by the politically incorrect name of “Asian flu.” My fever spiked to 105, and I was sicker than I’d ever been. The infirmary quickly filled with other cases, though some ailing students toughed it out in their dorm rooms with aspirin and orange juice. The college itself did not close, and the surrounding town did not impose restrictions on public gatherings. The day that I was discharged from the infirmary, I played in an intercollegiate soccer game, which drew a big crowd. . . .And yet, to the best of my knowledge, governors did not call out the National Guard, and political panic-mongers did not blame it all on President Eisenhower. College sports events were not cancelled, planes and trains continued to run, and Americans did not regard one another with fear and suspicion, touching elbows instead of hands. We took the Asian flu in stride. We said our prayers and took our chances."

So what has changed over the last 63 years to explain these disparate responses? By far the most important difference is that in 1957 we were not exposed to 24/7 broadcast panic and pathos. There were no cable TV networks or social media. There were 3-4 minute newscasts at the top of the hour on the "Today" show, a 5 minute (as I recall) network noon update, and a 15 minute network evening newscast. Furthermore, a significant part of this network coverage was devoted to Cold War news, especially the Soviet Union's launch of Sputnik in Oct.,1957. Not much time to get all lathered up about possibly getting sick.

Have our disparate responses to the Asian flu pandemic and the COVID pandemic made a significant difference? Discounting general improvements in medical care over the last 60 years, the first response might still be "yes," since our COVID deaths per million now are running so much lower than flu deaths per million were then. However, from what I can glean from US mortality rates, the Asian flu pandemic did not raise the overall annual death rate that much during the late 1950s. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/...

Put differently, the lack of a 24/7 media extravaganza did not lead to markedly higher total deaths. When the current total death numbers for 2020 become known, I suspect we will find that our saturation media coverage has not made much difference going in the other direction as concerns the course of the disease (but great difference as concerns the course of the economy and all those suffering from it). Why? Now as then, the pandemic is claiming persons already at significantly heightened risk. Of the Asian flu, Wikipedia says, "The virus was most deadly in pregnant women, the elderly, and those with pre-existing heart and lung disease." We have seen no indication yet that pregnant women are at increased risk from COVID, but there is no doubt about the other two categories.
Total Return Investor profile picture
P.S. I have been trying to convey COVID data to local friends in a way that will provide perspective to someone who eyes glaze over at talk about things like deaths per million.

I live in Oklahoma, and am an Oklahoma State football fan. Our stadium, named after St. Boone, seats approximately 60,000. So I ask the following question: if Oklahoma's current COVID deaths were thought of as a portion of a capacity crowd at Boone Pickens Stadium, how many people would have died? Fewer than four persons! If our confirmed and probable COVID cases were thought of in the same way, the number would be 23 (again, out of 60,000.) However, I'm considering changing my example to a capacity crowd at OU's Memorial Stadium. It is a lot easier to imagine a full house there.
M
Trump calls it the Xi-na virus.

What’s wrong with that?
diroha profile picture
@Total Return Investor You are correct but 2 other factors have been added since 1957, obesity and longevity. The average age in 1957 was 69.7 yrs and today it is 78.93. Obesity in 1960 was 12% and today it is slightly more than 30%.
SCF12 profile picture
Hi FG,
Nicely written. Elliott Wave is looking for this countertrend rally to turn lower from this resistance point at 2900. It should last more than a few weeks as this grinds lower.

GLTA
b
F&G,
Another week has slipped by as you and your readers have readily commented on. Still feeling uncomfortable with the "lockdown warnings". Observed an overreaction again this weekend trying to control the masses seeking a breath of fresh air. What must be emphasized over and over is that the "Guardians Of The Gates" do so at the pleasure of the taxpayers. Not the reverse.

Nice commentary pertaining to the "Kreskin" like individuals who seem to have a real problem just stating that at this point they do not know. Guess this doesn't make for good advertising or pay the bills. Wondering what ever happened to the media darlings who just four weeks ago were calling for the ultimate devastation of the stock market. Like a jeannie they disappear so quickly and another round of forecasters are brought through.

Not much else to comment on except I did notice and enjoyed your "Food For Thought" signpost. Seems I have seen this before. It is catchy.
Be well
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
baary

Thanks for adding to the conversation

I wonder what happened to the geniuses that were here 2-3 weeks ago telling us we were set for mass extinction

they conveniently have put their tails between their legs and moved on, same with a couple of folks that chastised anyone that thought the market could rally off the lows

time for them to get back here and man up,

instead, they will reappear like clockwork when the market weakens proclaiming they have been correct all along


Best to you
alejrossi profile picture
What can be better than reading fear and greed on a Saturday morning while locked down? Waiting 24hs after published, go back to the article again, and sort comments by "most liked" and get to see the smartest comments from great brilliant minds! As always, if you read my message, please drop your favorite asset, stock, or idea to invest in right now :)
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
a
thanks for the kind words

i would much rather everyone be out enjoying a normal life ,

then at some point sit back, relax and enjoy catching up on the markets


having said that

the comments continue to be the best part of these articles week after week.
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