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WTI Weekly: Pullback Early Week Toward Key Support Before Rally Phase Ensued Toward April's Key Breakdown Area

Sharedata Futures profile picture
Sharedata Futures


  • Price discovery lower through key support in Monday’s trade to 10.07s into Tuesday’s auction.
  • Buying interest emerged, halting the pullback, before price discovery higher developed to 20.48s into week’s end.
  • The near-term bias is buy-side, barring failure of 16.53s as support.
  • This week’s leveraged capital posture saw meaningful increase in net length as the upward trend continues.

In this article, we examine the significant weekly order flow and market structure developments driving WTI price action.

As noted in last week’s WTI Weekly, the primary expectation for this week was for price discovery lower, barring failure of 15.64s as support. This expectation played out early week as the key support area, 15.64s, failed in Monday’s auction as a sell-side breakdown ensued. The correction continued to 10.16s near major support (and Sharedata’s average weekly range low target) before buying interest emerged, halting the pullback. A rally then ensued to 20.48s ahead of Friday’s close, settling at 19.78s.

WTI Composite 24Apr20

26 April-01 May 2020

This week’s auction saw price discovery lower in Monday’s auction as key support, 15.64s, failed. The correction continued, achieving a stopping point, 11.88s, near Sharedata’s Average Weekly Range Low Target. Balance developed, 11.88s-13.97s, into Monday’s close. The pullback continued early in Tuesday’s trade, achieving the weekly stopping point low, 10.07s, near the major structural buy excess, 6.50s-9.00s, formed 21-22 April. The pullback halted there as rotation higher ensued before buying interest emerged, 12.30s, into Tuesday’s NY close.

Tuesday’s late buyers held the auction, as the rally continued back through prior key support, achieving a stopping point, 16.78s, into the EIA release (+8.9 million vs. +10.1 million expected) ahead of Wednesday’s NY close. Wednesday’s buyers at 15.51s held the auction as the rally through key resistance, 18s-18.30s, continued to 19.44s as buying interest emerged into Thursday’s NY close. Thursday’s late buyers held the auction as the rally continued early into Friday’s auction, achieving the weekly stopping point high, 20.48s. Sell excess developed there, halting the rally phase before a pullback ensued to 18.07s as balance developed, 18.07s-20.35s, ahead of Friday’s close, settling at 19.78s.

WTI Weekly Auction 01May20

This week’s primary expectation was for price discovery higher, provided 15.64s held as support. This probability path

This article was written by

Sharedata Futures profile picture
Historical Data Mining & Visualization for NYMEX energy markets. Our experience derives from the proprietary trading world involved in US Index derivatives, commodity ETF derivatives, and exchange-traded NYMEX WTI derivatives.Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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