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XLF Weekly: Key Support Held Early Week Before Re-Test Of March's Key Breakdown Area Failed

May 02, 2020 2:57 PM ETFinancial Select Sector SPDR® Fund ETF (XLF)
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Sharedata Futures


  • A gap higher open in Monday’s auction before an aggressive rally ensued, culminating in a sell excess, 24.13s-23.70s, at March’s breakdown area in Tuesday’s trade.
  • A pullback then ensued through mid-week to 21.91s into the week’s end.
  • The highest probability path near-term is for price discovery lower, barring failure of 23.60s as resistance.
  • Bullish breadth saw consolidation in the bullish extreme zone.

In this article, we examine the significant weekly order flow and market structure developments driving NYSEARCA:XLF price action.

The highest probability path for this week was for price discovery lower, provided 24.17s held as resistance. This primary expectation did play out as last week’s late buyers held the auction as an aggressive rally ensued to 24.13s into Tuesday’s auction. Sell excess formed there, 24.13s-23.70s, near the March breakdown area before a pullback ensued to 21.91s ahead Friday’s close, settling at 22.06s.

XLF Weekly Auction 24Apr20

27 April–01 May 2020:

This week’s auction saw a gap higher open in Monday’s trade as last week’s late buyers held the auction. Aggressive price discovery higher ensued, achieving a stopping point, 22.60s, where buying interest emerged into Monday’s close. Monday’s late buyers held the auction as a gap higher open formed in Tuesday’s trade as the rally continued, achieving a stopping point, 23.33s. Sell excess formed there before balance developed, 23.33s-22.67s. Buying interest emerged late in Tuesday’s trade as an aggressive buy-side breakout attempt developed, achieving the weekly stopping point high, 24.13s. Structural sell excess developed there, 24.13s-23.70s, into Tuesday’s close.

Narrow balance developed, 23.17s-23.66s, in Wednesday’s auction before buying interest emerged, 23.41s into Wednesday’s close. Wednesday’s late buyers failed to hold the auction as a pullback ensued in Thursday’s trade to 22.71s. Buying interest emerged, 22.71s/22.81s, into Thursday’s close. Thursday’s late buyers failed to hold the auction as a gap lower open formed in Friday’s trade before the pullback continued, achieving a stopping point, 21.91s, into Friday’s close, settling at 22.06s.

XLF Weekly Auction 01May20

This week’s auction saw primary sell-side expectation fail to unfold as last week’s key support held. An aggressive rally ensued to 24.13s at/near the March breakdown zone of thin liquidity. A structural sell excess developed there, halting the rally before a pullback ensued. The failure at the March breakdown area

This article was written by

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Historical Data Mining & Visualization for NYMEX energy markets. Our experience derives from the proprietary trading world involved in US Index derivatives, commodity ETF derivatives, and exchange-traded NYMEX WTI derivatives.Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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