Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Thinking Ahead Is Where You Make All The Money: Raoul Pal

May 04, 2020 12:45 PM ETDOW, SPY1 Comment
Real Vision profile picture
Real Vision


  • As dismal economic data and volatility in markets continue, it can be difficult to find the macro signal amid the noise of economic indicators.
  • Raoul Pal is considering unemployment numbers, historical market correction patterns, investor psychology, and even real-time global traffic patterns for clues about where we’re headed.
  • Amid the economic carnage, Amazon is uniquely positioned to take over the world’s retailing and outperform tech rivals like Google and Facebook that are dependent on ad revenue for survival.

The world’s economic outlook is dependent on dozens of intersecting forces like US-China relations, corporate bankruptcies, European deficits, trade and currency markets, and dollar demand, but looking forward and tuning out the day-to-day noise is how investors can make money during this time, Raoul Pal said during today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing.

Pal said that he’s watching China as Trump ratchets up tensions with talk of tariffs and scapegoating. With the CNH weakening significantly, he said we could be in for a huge move, which could have major impacts on currency markets and the dollar.

He’s also looking at deficits in European countries as a percentage of GDP, which is about 20% per country, and considering the recent head and shoulders pattern on the IBEX, Pal said something really big may be about to happen there.

Pal also discussed how the market is pricing the growing unemployment numbers and disagreed with the sentiment that these jobs not truly lost, just in a deep freeze.

“I don’t see a world where there is enough cash flow to rehire everyone again and presume everything is ok, and that is what the market is trying to price in right now and I just think it is wrong,” he said. “We need to figure out how many jobs are really lost – that’s the kind of understanding that’s going to make us money out of this.”

To get a better sense of how things are playing out on the ground in various countries, Pal said he’s looking at GPS data on traffic patterns in locations like Atlanta and Singapore to glean insights into behavioral changes that are persisting despite lockdowns expiring. He noted that even in places that have reopened, traffic during the middle of the day is nearly nonexistent, and discussed the implications of that.

This article was written by

Real Vision profile picture
Real Vision is a disruptive global financial media company, best known for its on-demand video channel Real Vision. The company also delivers written research, branded content, bespoke channels and live events. Real Vision creates all its own content which comprises of exclusive in-depth interviews, research, documentaries, analysis and trade ideas from impossible to access guests and the sharpest minds in global finance. The content is distributed directly through our website and app (www.realvision.com), as well as through Apple, Roku, Amazon and You Tube plus multiple corporate and financial websites.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion... The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications (collectively referred to as "RV RELEASES") is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publishers, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers and vendors(collectively,"Affiliated Parties") make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise(whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. RV Releases do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that - now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.