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Comments (6)

This was a very useful article for me. I bought Airbus shares at 55€ with the intention to hold them for the next 5 years. Could you analyze what are the probabilities of banckrupcy please? Thank you.
Dhierin Bechai profile picture
Thank you fo reading. For individual customers it is really hard to say who will go bankrupt and which companies are there to stay. Basically, the weak names in the industry that had problems before COVID-19 are the names that might not survive.
Hugo Stiglitz profile picture
ZERO probability.
Bankruptcy is very unlikely particularly because of government support but it is possible. It’s like this for many companies struggling right now
My optimist hypothesis:
Infection trends already declining, by fall Covid will be past.
Airlines will recover after retiring large numbers of older planes, soon they will go back scrambling for new aircraft.
Airbus will have the least disrupted supply chain and stronger narrowbody offering.
PS: I became long in Airbus these last weeks.
buying the dips on EADS & BA
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