Politics And The Markets 5/6/20
Political Comments
3.93K Followers
This is the forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast post.
Please don't leave political comments on other articles or news, and please avoid personal insults!
This article was written by
3.93K Followers
This is the go-to destination for political comments on Seeking Alpha.These comments are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site, and this is an 'enter at your own risk' area as discussion can get very heated. If you can't stand the heat...you know what they say...The one guideline we do still require strict adherence to is refraining from personal attacks on fellow commenters. Regardless of which side of the political divide you find yourself, please be courteous and don't direct abuse at other users.
Recommended For You
Comments (499)
Fresh breeze blowing from Denver Post opinion column?"In the midst of the constant up-and-down of coronavirus news, both from science and the markets, it’s easy to lose sight of the scariest scenario of them all: the one where there’s no magic bullet. In this entirely plausible situation, there would be no effective Covid-19 vaccine or transformative therapy; the combination of testing and contact tracing wouldn’t successfully suppress the outbreak; and herd immunity would come, if at all, only after millions of deaths around the world.Even raising this possibility is a big downer. But the fact that an outcome is terrible doesn’t make it impossible.Since the end of February, I’ve conducted some 20 interviews with epidemiologists and virologists like Marc Lipsitch, Angela Rasmussen, and Carl Bergstrom; economists like Paul Romer, Stefanie Stantcheva and Larry Summers; and leaders at top hospitals and experts on government agencies whose names you may not know, but whose life’s work is preparing for moments like this one. Despite getting expert answers to dozens of my questions, the one question I haven’t been able to get an answer for is this: Who, exactly, is planning for the nightmare scenario in which we never get a vaccine or a breakthrough treatment?Ideally, it would be the federal government’s executive branch, with its resources and bird’s-eye view of the problem. But the president, running for reelection, has every reason to insist on (unrealistic) optimism. In fact, the administration actually discussed disbanding its coronavirus task force.The CDC and other public health agencies might be a good second option; but they’re busy (rightly) warning the public not to throw up our hands and let the virus spread unchecked. It’s not really a job for scientists — they are (understandably) devoting all their energy to searching for treatments and vaccines. Governors only have the authority to plan for their individual state. And the Fed is tasked with trying to save jobs and markets, not modeling the end of the economy as we know it.I’m not one who enjoys doomsday scenarios. Yet realism absolutely demands considering every confluence of events that could occur with reasonable probability. If in fact there is no agency or department planning for the worst-case scenario, that is a major governance failure.The fact that some 90 vaccines are being explored, with some clinical trials, is exciting and uplifting. It’s better than 80 vaccines or 40 or five or none. The sheer number tends to make us think that one or several will succeed. But the sum of many very low probability events doesn’t necessarily translate into a high probability that one will succeed."www.denverpost.com/...
WHO are they bullshitting, pun intended?They worried the US is going to cut the $550 million funding!"(Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization is considering a new mission to seek the source of the coronavirus in China, amid growing controversy over the origin of a pandemic that has killed more than a quarter of a million people.“Without knowing where the animal origin is, it’s hard to prevent it from happening again,” Maria Van Kerkhove, a WHO epidemiologist, said at a press briefing Wednesday.Talk of a new mission comes as debate grows over the source of the outbreak, which was first identified in Wuhan, China, more than four months ago. U.S. President Donald Trump says the virus likely escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a laboratory that studies dangerous pathogens. Some intelligence agencies are casting doubt on that theory.The WHO has come under fire from Trump, who has moved to cut off funding to the Geneva-based United Nations agency, saying it was overly deferential to China as the virus spread in that country and beyond.Van Kerkhove in February participated in a previous mission to China, which concluded that the virus was zoonotic in origin. Bats appeared to be the “reservoir” for the virus, but an intermediate host could not be determined, the report said.“There is discussion with our counterparts in China for a further mission, which would be more academic in focus, and really focus on looking at what happened at the beginning in terms of exposures with different animals,” Van Kerkhove said."
"WHO are they bullshitting, pun intended?
They worried the US is going to cut the $550 million funding!"Let China fund them.
They worried the US is going to cut the $550 million funding!"Let China fund them.
Gigi, the US needs to keep their fingers in WHO and suspect we will. Funding levels maybe should change.
@Namron Damron We can keep our fingers in WHO even if we cut from 500 Mil to 50.
Make everyone pay their fair share.
Make everyone pay their fair share.
In Blue State Texas I found this leaked audio interesting:Texas Governor Admits Dangers of Reopening State on Private Call With Lawmakerswww.thedailybeast.com/... Abbott was asked during a Friday afternoon phone call with members of the state legislature and Congress.“How do we know reopening businesses won’t result in faster spread of more cases of COVID-19?” Abbott responded, “Listen, the fact of the matter is pretty much every scientific and medical report shows that whenever you have a reopening—whether you want to call it a reopening of businesses or of just a reopening of society—in the aftermath of something like this, it actually will lead to an increase and spread. It’s almost ipso facto.”
Texas Republicans are not here to protect our families. He know unnecessary additional deaths will happen by reopening Texas and now he needs to own it.
Texas Republicans are not here to protect our families. He know unnecessary additional deaths will happen by reopening Texas and now he needs to own it.
A university buddy called me out of the blue a couple of hours ago. This friend is a shooter - 25 years with KPMG, CFO of a large publishing company, CEO of a sizeable bank, adjunct professor at a major university, board member (still) of a major insurance company, a hospital, and a college. We violently agree that whereas it's relatively easy to understand sector "system risks", vitrually no one has a handle on "inter-system" risks. This is coming at us.
@Henry Miles Why don't you publish a detailed article on that subject here on SA. I'm interested in those issues. Thanks in advance Henry.
@Jack D Stocks I've contributed 59 articles to SA. However, in January, I took a break because of some differences with editorial policies. At this point, I doubt I will return to writing, but I do agree that this would be an interesting area for exploration (the closest I got to it was a piece I did on counter-party risk a few years ago).
@Henry Miles Like the house of cards fiat money has built?
What could possibly go wrong!?? LolNearly 20,000 teens in Georgia have received their driver licenses without a road test(CNN)The sweaty palms on the steering wheel. The repeated exclamations of "Sorry!" The nervous glances from the examiner.They're all part of the dreaded road test, which, for decades, has been a rite of passage for every American teenager to obtain their driver license.
Well, until now.
"I had been nervous about the driving test -- with the parallel parking and all that," said 17-year-old Willa Pevey from Tucker, Georgia.
"So I was happy that I didn't have to do it."
Neither did thousands and thousands of other teens in Georgia. All of them got their licenses without taking an official road test. It's Georgia's way of handling the backlog of the thousands of road test requests that have been put on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Well, until now.
"I had been nervous about the driving test -- with the parallel parking and all that," said 17-year-old Willa Pevey from Tucker, Georgia.
"So I was happy that I didn't have to do it."
Neither did thousands and thousands of other teens in Georgia. All of them got their licenses without taking an official road test. It's Georgia's way of handling the backlog of the thousands of road test requests that have been put on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic.
They did until now.My youngest failed her first test. We went in my GMC 2500 4x4. lol
To be fair the tester was an azz. She barely touched a cone when parking.
To be fair the tester was an azz. She barely touched a cone when parking.
@amazapple Don't be a cheapskate, rent her a small car for her driving test.
I thought you were smart?
I thought you were smart?
Some levity:www.youtube.com/...
@amazapple @Jack D Stocks @Namron Damron "(Bloomberg) — BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink had a stark message for a private audience: As bad as things have been for corporate America in recent weeks, they’re likely to get worse.Mass bankruptcies, empty planes, cautious consumers and an increase in the corporate tax rate to as high as 29% were part of a vision Fink sketched out on a call this week. The message from the leader of the world’s biggest asset manager contrasts with the ebullient tones of a stock market that has snapped back from recent lows.Even among Wall Street luminaries, Fink speaks with particular clout. He has been advising President Donald Trump on how to navigate the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. And BlackRock is playing a key role in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize markets, helping the central bank buy billions of dollars in assets.Fink said on the call with clients of a wealth advisory firm that bankers have told him they expect a cascade of bankruptcies to hit the American economy, and he wondered if the Fed needed to do more to provide support, according to a person with knowledge of the remarks.A BlackRock spokesman declined to comment.Even as the U.S. is plunged into deepening economic gloom, it will have to raise taxes to pay for emergency efforts to rescue sectors grappling with a difficult recovery, he warned on the call.Among his predictions: lifting the 21% corporate rate signed into law as part of 2017’s tax overhaul to about 28% or 29% next year, according to the person. Fink also said he sees tax rates for individuals going up.Raising taxes would water down the biggest legislative achievement of Trump’s time in office, when he and a Republican-controlled Congress drove through the most significant changes to the tax code in decades.Lower corporate rates juiced profits and showered cash on shareholders through increased dividends and stock buybacks. Now, at a time when many taxpayers are less able to bear the burden of higher taxes, the government may be forced to extract a larger share of companies’ and individuals’ income.The spread of the coronavirus, and measures taken to mitigate it, slammed the brakes on the economy. While Trump pushes to reopen commerce and his officials predict a rapid rebound, public health experts and some economists are skeptical the crisis will soon be over.Politicians, business leaders and economists are beginning to confront the risks of a limited federal response that might speed up the demise of smaller companies and wreck state and municipal finances that pay for schools, law enforcement and infrastructure.That won’t be the only strain on companies. Many may have to operate with only about half their staff in the office for more than a year, according to Fink. Across white-collar industries, millions are working remotely from home. It would be hard to see a complete return without mass availability of rapid testing, he said."americaradio.net/...
A sobering view. There is a huge disconnect between the economy and the stock market.
Huge disconnect!I'm 100% cash in my trading account.
@Pinguino Investments I don't disagree with the "sobering view" however there wasn't a market-economy disconnect PRIOR to Xi's Wuhan Virus. The USA was doing quite well.Interesting timing to get this Chinese virus shit in an Election year with a lousy Dem Nominee, Biden.Looks like Xi decided Biden needed some help (or did Nancy ask for help)?
@murfinnyc- But you can call me Senator Yelp, the Federal Gestapo under Heinrich Mueller.en.wikipedia.org/...
@al roman Meaning what? But, on a perhaps related topic, people would be well-advised to have a health care directive laying out care they do not wish to receive at EOL or otherwise. Also, in addition to one's partner and kids, I recommend reviewing the same with your primary care doc. Mine knows that he's my 'wingman' to ensure that my family does not do anything I don't want.
it's stunning how fast we went from "15 cases will go down to zero, I've done an amazing job" to "it's totally under control, I've done an amazing job" to "60,000 deaths, tops, I've done an amazing job" to "f'k it, lots of people are going to die, I've done an amazing job...
@DoubleD44 Cuomo's a lying prick.All lives are priceless.Don please bail NY out, each C19 death cost us $35,000!No way Andy NY residents are only worth $4.27 according to us.
@techy46 @DoubleD44 "Cuomo's a lying prick."Cuomo has the worst record of any governor in America in controlling the virus.
Cuomo is not only a lying prick he is a total failure.
Wasn't there talk about Cuomo for Pres?
Laughable!
Cuomo is not only a lying prick he is a total failure.
Wasn't there talk about Cuomo for Pres?
Laughable!
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!