Hot Take Of The Day Interview: Oil, Gas And Tankers
Summary
- Hot Take Of The Day interview with David Ramsden-Wood.
- How I find and analyze oil and gas investments.
- Various current opportunities including low decline oil producers, natural gas producers, and product tankers.
Recent interview with Hot Take Of The Day's David Ramsden-Wood.
Core investment theses as summarized by DRW:
1) the marginal cost of a barrel of oil in the world is much higher than the current price, biasing towards $50-60 oil or higher
2) unconventional (shale) companies were inflated because of a series of debt bubbles, equity bubbles, and capital allocation bubbles - at the core, they weren't a profitable business and require higher prices, possibly even higher than the past 5 year range.
3) its harder to predict the next "new" thing than to find and analyze existing assets available for potential substantial discounts to replacement cost - finding "the last thing for a giant discount to the cost to replace it."
4) commonalities between Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) and shale drillers - pricing in future hypothetical profits and similarities to the 1001 days in a life of a Thanksgiving Turkey:
Subjects include: investment philosophy, conflicts of interest of banks and media companies, long term investment thesis in low decline oil producers, shale mal-investment, and opportunities in natural gas producers and product tankers.
Relevant tickers: Antero Resources (AR), Antero Midstream (AM), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Exxon (XOM), Shell (RDS.A), Chevron (CVX), Whiting (WLL), Northern Oil (NOG), EOG (EOG), Concho (CXO), Pioneer (PXD), Oil and Gas ETFs: USO USL UNG UNL XOP XLE PSCE FCG GUSH UCO DRIP
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long AR, AM, STNG.
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