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We'll See The Reckoning This Fall: Harrison

Real Vision profile picture
Real Vision


  • What the current social unrest means for markets is additional risk coming onto the table and we will likely see hits to the market and the economy going forward.
  • Relatively flat numbers in today’s markets suggest that the upheaval has no significance on a one-day level, but in the long-term it may be a signpost of the economy.
  • Investors should be cautioned that despite the market’s strength, there has been very weak volume and a narrowed focus to a very limited time frame.

The roiling civil unrest in the U.S. has affected businesses, but it may not impact financial markets until the fall, Ed Harrison told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing.

Harrison said that on a one-day level the current events have had no significance, but in the long-term it may be a signpost for the economy going forward. He is looking at the market impact of similar events for insight into the current moment, including the Great Depression on the economic front, the 1918 influenza pandemic on the virus front, and the riots of 1968 and 1992 on the social front.

One parallel he is paying particular attention to is what the country saw in 1968. Harrison said the social unrest was a marker of the top of the market in terms of the economy; the year ended up but it was the beginning of a devastating secular bear market. Harrison questioned whether this is also what is happening today.

All of it adds up to additional risk coming onto the table due to the uncertainty of our current situation, and Harrison said that uncertainty is causing the market to narrow its focus to a very limited time frame. If the data beats consensus it is positive; if it doesn’t, negative, and for this period of uncertainty that has to be good enough. However, he cautioned that there will be a reckoning later, most likely in the fall.

Harrison said that the psychological impact on consumers extends beyond COVID-19 at this point. He expects consumption to continue to be suppressed due to the riots, and combined with things like Apple store closures and Amazon delivery delays, and the elevated risk of a second wave of the virus following the protests, he’s apprehensive about the risks.

We won’t know until fall what

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Comments (28)

bengalesq profile picture
The sky is falling!!! Buy this newspaper!!!
It's not social unrest its civil unrest
Wolfstar profile picture
It is a non factual piece from a market perspective. 1968 items pertaining to civil rights and also Vietnam sideshows. It is a mistake to thing the average investor gave a crap. Having lived through all that I can tell you unrest in the middle east and oil doubling in price in the face of the new Opec and an embargo on the US, now that made everyone take notice. That is what created the bear market. Your idea for this piece was a good one but you missed the things that people care about. Oil. Money. People notice those. They do not care about what protesters think about as well as whether they burn they own neighborhood. In fact those events tended to heavily stimulate certain sectors owned by the haves. What the havenots do is of no consequence to the markets.
Tell your story to Hubert Humphrey following the riots outside the 1968 convention. The civil unrest also caused Nixon to disengage from Vietnam.
How exactly do you expect social unrest to impact the companies that comprise the market? I didn’t actually see anything about that in the article.
PaFromFL profile picture
The Democrats and the liberal media will probably lose many swing voters because their attempt to link Trump with Russia failed after many tedious months of misleading news stories, they hurt many swing voters with their all too obvious attempt to beat Trump by shutting down the economy for months, and now they have been forced to defend the actions of looters and anarchists which further alienates most swing voters. All the Democrats had to do was to just go about their jobs in a normal fashion so that swing voters could contrast normal behavior with Trump’s behavior. Instead, Democrats began behaving like Trump or worse. I have to wonder if Democrat strategists are Republican moles.
None of what you say happened actually happened. Trump was linked to Russia. Repeatedly. Treasonous republicans don't care. Biden is acting normal in contrast with Trump's craziness, as you say Dems should be doing. In what world is anyone behaving worse than Trump?
PaFromFL profile picture
We'll find out how the swing voters interpret the actions of the Democrats and Republicans in November.
King of two things profile picture
It’s rare to read a post that gets everything exactly wrong, but well done, @PaFromFL you’ve managed it!
cdgingrich profile picture
Ed Harrison. LOL.
bluescorpion0 profile picture
Silly. 1968 is not 2020. You prove nothing about the current situation..oh and in the early 80s You could buy debt yielding 20 percent for 30 years. Quite a good deal.
Value Digger profile picture
A key negative fact that has passed unnoticed so far is that Biden’s lead over Trump grows by 8 points since March, poll found last week, according to Forbes:


And Joe Biden will significantly increase taxes on Corporations and the wealthy households if elected, as shown below:


These tax increases will definitely impact negatively the stock market.
Yeah that’s why the market has gone up under every democratic administration. That tiny percentage increase in corporate taxes really stops all the trickle-down don’tcha know!
cdgingrich profile picture
Polls: "Hillary has a 99% chance of winning".
Chris Valley profile picture
She did win by 3 million votes.
Pretty sure that movie was out several years ago, is it coming to hbomax or something?
pascia profile picture
Fair warning
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