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Market Timing 3x Bull ETFs

Josef Friedman profile picture
Josef Friedman


  • Specter/FF5 makes a strong argument that equity markets can be timed.
  • The market timing logic exposes potentially serious technical flaws in the structure of these products, resulting in absurdly large returns.
  • It is unlikely that comparable strategies are not already in use.

Market Timing

Many investors, academics, and financial professionals believe it is impossible to time the market. Other investors, notably active traders, believe strongly in it. Thus, whether market timing is possible is a matter of opinion. What can be said with certainty is it is very difficult to time the market consistently over the long run successfully.

Gimli : Certainty of death. Small chance of success. What are we waiting for?

The Legend

The Specter/FF5 structure presents a serious challenge to the belief that it is impossible to time the market.

My two previous articles on FoxForce5 have shown performance results for a complex but relatively easy to understand trading strategy that determines favorable entry and exit points for most equities. The strategy is strong enough to beat long term buy and hold returns by something like 25% over long periods of time. That is (Strategy Return / Buy and Hold Return) = 1.25+. Data going back over 28 years confirm the persistence and consistency of the signals.

My articles have concentrated on returns over the last ten years or so. The strategy is at least as effective on individual stocks as equity ETFs. It is in the market about half the time and can go long or flat (at the close) several times a week. It can lag buy and hold during some periods, but in those cases, it generally makes less money rather than taking losses.

The current development stage can be characterized as advanced prototype. There is a clear and objective development path to improve performance.

Low self esteem is one issue I don't have relating to my work, so I hope the reader forgives me for saying that I think the strategy is world class. It won't get the active self directed investor/trader insanely wealthy, except perhaps for

This article was written by

Josef Friedman profile picture
Software developer, Excel VBA for quantitative technical analysis, specializing in analyzing groups of equities and ETFs.  Articles document development of market models and game theory.  Chess master.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long QQQ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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