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COVID-19: Gilead's Remdesivir Might Be As Good As It Gets

Keith Williams profile picture
Keith Williams


  • Approved antiviral agents which might have a role in treating COVID-19 include Gilead’s remdesivir, Starpharma’s SPL7013; BioCryst Pharma’s Galidesivir; Pfizer and Merck have programs in this area.
  • Remdesivir is primarily a late stage treatment which may reduce time in hospital, but it isn’t a cure.
  • Treating early stage disease to prevent progression to serious illness is another approach: examples include Starpharma SPL7013, Sorrento Therapeutics antibodies, possibly Merck/Ridgeback Bio EIDD-2801.
  • Drugs (mostly not yet developed) addressing immune system over-reaction for late stage acute disease might have a role. Mesoblast Remestemcel-L is possible but probably too expensive.
  • Other possible candidates are many, diverse and speculative.

There are many levels to the coronavirus pandemic and a massive effort is underway to find a vaccine and treatments. Genetic Engineering News summarised 161+ candidates. The US clinical trials website indicates 1,915 trials underway using the keyword COVID-19 (June 3, 2020).

The common cold has no cure/treatment and no vaccine. A coronavirus is responsible for ~20% of common colds.

The initial reports on progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine are coming in, with mixed results. This is a tough problem and it would be extraordinary if a vaccine became available in less than 12-18 months. Even if that happens, it is likely to take considerably longer to have a really effective vaccine. So there is a big need for parallel efforts on treatments.

In this article I highlight some approaches being tried and some companies involved. You can be certain that lots of labs have recently changed their research efforts to engage with COVID-19 drugs. Below I show that there is still much to learn about COVID-19, so a cure is likely to involve a number of twists and turns and there may be multiple kinds of treatments at the end of this saga. Most potential treatments are still vague and hence who to invest in is unclear, except that most big pharma companies are looking for ways to participate with a vaccine and/or a treatment. I highlight two antiviral compounds that are already used to treat viral disease, Gilead’s remdesivir and Starpharma’s (OTCQX:SPHRY) SPL7013, which, although at a very early stage in relation to treating COVID-19, may be of interest to investors.

Potential treatments for COVID-19 fall into various categories, starting with using antibodies from patients who have survived COVID-19, to conventional approaches via antiviral agents that attack other viruses, and also various therapies (mostly monoclonal antibody-based) which bind to various immune system targets

This article was written by

Keith Williams profile picture
Keith began his career as a research scientist (developmental biology, biochemistry, molecular biology) at the Australian National University, University of Oxford (UK), the Max Planck Institute for Biochemistry (Munich, Germany) and finally Macquarie University (Sydney) where he held a Chair in Biology and established the Centre for Analytical Biotechnology. Pioneering the area of proteomics (with Marc Wilkins in his group coining the term), Keith established the world’s first government-funded Major National Proteomics Facility (Australian Proteome Analysis Facility) which was involved with industrialising protein science. Keith left academe with his team to found Proteome Systems Ltd in 1999 to commercialise proteomics. The company had a strong focus on intellectual property, engineering/technology and bioinformatics. As CEO he led the company to ASX listing in 2004. Since 2005 Keith has been involved in new business development in biotech, e-health and other emerging technologies. Keith sees climate change and sustainable development as a major issue for humankind and also a major business disruptor/risk and opportunity. Keith holds a Bachelor Agr Science from the University of Melbourne and a PhD from the Australian National University. He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering and received an AM (Member of the Order of Australia) for services to the Biotechnology Industry. He has received various industry awards including an Innovation Hero Medal from the Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering. With 300 scientific papers and many patents written, Keith has a clear view of innovation in the Biotechnology and Climate/Renewable Energy space. He is not a financial advisor but his perspective adds relevance to decision-making concerning feasibility and investment in technology innovation.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long SPHRY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (410)

CaptainSolo profile picture
Yesterday.. Israel approves remdesivir drug for COVID-19 treatment www.reuters.com/...

FDA approved remdesivir for emergency use months ago.

CNN: Report: Covid-19 patients recovering quickly after getting experimental drug remdesivir edition.cnn.com/...

Children with COVID-19 to be enrolled in remdesivir clinical trial, drugmaker says
Remdesivir has been shown to help adults with the coronavirus recover.
Cucumber the population of Australia is on the coast primarily and its major concentrations are separated by significant distances. The Gold Coast of Florida has a population density of over 4400 people per square mile for the over 100 mile strip from Miami north of Palm Beach that ranges rom 5 to 20 miles wide. Density counts. That strip is practically a continuum of people and can’t easily be isolated . Even more to the point, every spring the Ft. Lauderdale area is inundated with college kids from all over the east coast that spend spring vacation on the beaches and hotels.packed like sardines. This year the authorities shut the beaches, but there was an influx of students anyway. When they got there they found bars closed, beaches closed, etc.This limited the number but didn’t stop a significant number from coming. These are facts, not like your statement that as many have died under 65 as 65 and over. You are good at taking one point to counter, while ignoring the several you made previously. When information is provided that counters your argument, you ignore it and move on to the next. . Do you ever follow up to ascertain whether your previous claims and assertions are valid?
You are being selective. And how can anyone maintain that because 100s of thousands of demonstrators in close contact in the streets well into night is not a breeding ground for more infections. Reporters isolated in on camera coverage are wearing masks, joe Biden wore a mask when he placed flowers on the war memorial. Only he and his wife were present. By the way Australia’s land area is 45 times greater than Florida’s and its population is less than 1.5 times that of Florida. Density counts. The very fact that you throw out the possibility of a million deaths is evidence of a bias. You have no grounds for this possibility. The spikes you keep alluding to are nowhere as big as you are implying. I have relatives who have overcome the disease or who never knew they had it, go in for an elective procedure, get tested and the tests yield they have anti bodies and also test positive for the infection. What has been discovered is that the tests will yield a positive result even though the virus is not still alive. It amazies me how the author is so expert, when we are still discovering new information about testing and the virus..if the author were familiar with queuing theory. he would understand that early models are a strong function of density and random motion. Distancing and quarantine at home are steps to reduce the impact of density and random motion of people. Sealing areas is a step to prevent more infected people from randomly interacting with the resident population.. These are a priori steps. Once data is taken,which shows biases, more specific actions should ensue like isolatng seniors who have been infected from the rest of the long term care population. The author again ignores the impact of governor’s decisions to send infected residents back to their long term care facility. I guess cum. Has never watched the Giants or Green Bay packers play.
"By the way Australia’s land area is 45 times greater than Florida’s and its population is less than 1.5 times that of Florida. Density cunts."

I've read some specious statements in my life, but that's a doozey. most of Australia is uninhabited (and uninhabitable). just like some 90% of Canadians live within 200 miles of the USofA. gad.
AgileDave profile picture
On the plus side, the street parties will certainly accelerate herd immunity. The ordered separation was to slow infections, not to reduce them. The goal was metering hospital admissions. Isolation works at the source of a pathogen, but it has spread globally now so everyone will inevitably get infected. We had a vaccine in January but bureaucrats wanted to study it while hundreds of thousands die. We must learn to do that better. They won't until we demand it.
I said I wouldn’t post any more, but I couldn’t resist talking about the new development coming out of Oxford University. The early data that a common, cheap drug is showing therapeutic efficacy against those coronavirus infected, hospitalized patients. Apparently the report will soon be published. I have maintained that a therapeutic will be a game changer. Of course if it is very expensive and difficult to administer, like Remdesivir in its present form, its immediate impact will be limited but if it is cheap and already available in large volume that is great.
I also can’t resist what point out that the author hasn’t said anything about the hundreds of thousands demonstrating over almost two weeks, walking arm and arm, often without masks. I didn’t see one reference in his comments concerning the possibility of spreading the virus. Selective use of data, assertions of who did what to whom, when unfortunately have dominated the discourse rather than letting the data inform actions. The pandemic has also produced a lot of so called experts who are very sure of what negatively can happen, but will never admit they really don’t know,. A typical statement by Dr. Fauchi just recently made on some program is that if baseball is played it should not extend to late October. NFL football has already announced their season will proceed. The obvious contradiction is almost comical.
"I didn’t see one reference in his comments concerning the possibility of spreading the virus."

- even Fauci acknowledges that outdoor congregation is much lower risk
- the video I've seen (I avoid Faux News) show most *with masks*
- some, Fauci specifically I don't recall, experts *have* voiced concern

"The obvious contradiction is almost comical."

well, on the one hand we have an infectious disease expert, while on the other a bunch of old, white, male billionaires sitting in their skyboxes well away from the pack players. also, more football is played indoors than baseball. who's ox could be gored?? why, the billionaires, of course. let's wait and see how many corpses emerge from the Tulsa revival meeting in a month.

the steroid in question is old and cheap (oral tablet & liquid, IV), but isn't a 'cure'. reduction in death can be as high as 35% (vented patients), based on PR. no data yet. doesn't appear to fit same indication as Rem.
Keith Williams profile picture
@Old Wizard

I'm working on an article which discusses the dexamethasone development. It does help tease out where we are at and how much more is needed on the treatment front.

As to the terrifying things that are happening in the US, from demonstrations, to football, to returning to normal social interactions .... it is appalling that the experts aren't allowed to be clear as to how dangerous all of this is. The numbers are clear that things are getting worse in the US. Today there were 26,071 new cases and 809 deaths in the US, bringing the totals to 2,234,471 cases and 119,941 deaths.

I'm puzzled that you think I'm being selective about concern about social distancing. The way things are headed in the US, I wouldn't discount 1 million deaths before this is over. Things are not getting better.
EliasMouawad profile picture
@Keith Williams One million deaths despite the evidence so far that 3 drugs help patients recover ?
Mr ?Williams, I think you are defined by being an anti Trumper. No number of facts can change your mind. Can you tell us how many Australians are in long term care facilities and how many of those people died as comparison to the US, The policy of sending still infected residents back to those facilities was directed by governor executive orders. Nearly 40% of all deaths to date have been in long term care facilities. Early data should have informed the governors that this policy was not correct. In New York that policy was not changed until May 11. I don’t think your statement about working together is correct. The governors of New York California and
New Jersey are democrats and have publicly acknowledged that the President and the
Federal government have been very responsive to their requests. When Trump announced that the Federal government would handle policy to address the virus, both sides of the isle protested that constitutionally he did not have the authority and that authority rested with the states. Your statements define an alternate reality. When the country shut down in mid March do you know how many known cases we had in the US. Let me ask you, would you have shut down the whole economy if you had that few cases in the country.
Inam happy for Australia, but just to put the problem in some perspective,prior to the shut down, as many or possibly more people were traveling on planes and public transportation in the US than the total population of Australia. Even after the country was shut down, NYC dudn’t Shut down it’s public transit system. Over 600000 people use the subway system daily.and the reduced usage did not immediately occur. You don’t have all the data to make your judgement calls. My reading of the data and the sequence of events is different. You compared Brazil and Australia. I gave you some additional data. You talk to two dense cities and make a statement you only need one. Now that is naive. Density matters and the more places where that is the more difficult the problem. You then changed the primary factor to Federal State cooperation. Again that is a much bigger and complex problem in the USA than in Australia, I won’t post anymore because I don’t believe any data I post will change your conclusions.
AgileDave profile picture
Australia's economy is about the size of Texas. Maybe we should compare those.
"Australia's economy is about the size of Texas. Maybe we should compare those."

Texas loses as bad as the field to Secretariat at the Belmont. be careful what you wish for.
Keith Williams profile picture
@Old Wizard

I guess we disagree about quite a lot.

The point about closures is that they have to be VERY early or you get the problems you've had in the US. You reflect President Trump's view that it was ridiculous to close the place down when the numbers were so low... which meant ignoring the expert advice. Australia, Vietnam, Taiwan, New Zealand listened tho their experts and the result is that they have a chance of managing future outbreaks because the numbers are so low.

Even setting aside the issue in the US with long term care facilities, there are still 60% of cases.....

There is abundant evidence that President Trump thrives on conflict and his abuse of Democrat governors over the COVID crisis is a matter of public record. In Australia the problem was addressed by bringing State and Federal together. No-one insisted in being in control; a bringing together of the different resources worked. I suspect a significant part of the US problem was this lack of cohesion.

I note that the number of deaths is increasing again in the US (25,450 new cases and 849 deaths on 16 June). If President Trump holds his rally with 19,000 people in an enclosed hall, this is a perfect way with a single event of sending new infections all over the country.
Further, cucumber, the northern counties of Virginia and Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in Maryland where the vast majority of commuters to DC live, followed the same slower opening policy as DC. While much of the two states other counties were about two weeks ahead. Both governors left the final decisions up to each county to decide. The county I live in followed the DC pace. You ought to dig a little deeper before you represent what is happening. Misinformation doesn’t help.
Look cumber batch, you are the one who stated as many people under 65 as over 65 have died in the US due to the Coronavirus. It is just that misreading of the data that I believe is not letting the data inform the policy decisions. I don’t understand what how many people under 65 have died relative to the data of the 0 to 15 statistics that might inform what educators do in schools. In fact the deaths in the 0.to 25 age group are very low. How that relates to schools in the fall should be a factor.
To the author, the population of Australia is less than 1/ 10 of ours. We have many more concentrated cities and if you are familiar with Australia, the population is on the coastal rim of the country with practically none in the vast interior. Geographic isolation is much easier to accomplish. You might compare Australia’s numbers with Florida’s. One should not ignore that the governors claimed that it was their constitutional right to direct what each state’s public health response was to the virus. When the data showed early that a disproportionate number of deaths were in long term care facilities, many governors did not alter the policy decision to send infected residents back to their long term care facilities.
Cucumber, you may have lived in the DC area in the past, I live there now and have been here for almost 20 years. In point of fact for the last three months almost the entire work force has been working at home. Very little traffic of office workers has been in evidence. The grid lock during commute hours has disappeared. It is only in the last week that some commuting has picked up. As with most of your statements you seem to not have the facts.
you know what ANOVA and simple contingency tables do, right (Dudley)? they deal with within group and between group variance and probability. in the case of Covid-19 (and most other disease statistics), what we get are the between group probabilities (made up numbers for illustration, they keep changing): 25-34 10%, 65-44 20%, and the remaining 70%. %-ages are of the total deaths, of course. is that what one needs to know? of course not, from the point of view of members of each age cohort. from a public policy point of view, the between group probabilities might be useful from an intervention plan standpoint. but, even then, may be not.

what the group members need to know, and arguably the public policy wonks as well, is the within group death probabilities: if you're 25-34 and get infected, what's the probability of dying? that data, so far as I can find, isn't around.

if you're content to (or want to) cull the herd of geezers and poor (and, ideally, those that are both) as we do with flu (just look up the data), then mitigation efforts have been a waste of time and money. OTOH, the 64 and under adult death rates, both within (it seems) and between (no doubt), are much higher for Covid than for any flu, modulo 1918.
AgileDave profile picture
Nature culls the geezers. Virus, heart, cancer, falling and can't get up. lots of tools to accomplish that. The more interesting question is why some survive longer, not just focusing on the current news. As epidemics go, this one is moderate, like a Cat 3 hurricane. Does a little damage but it will pass. And we can't do anything about it except hunker down till it passes, and strengthen our defenses before the next one. Epidemics and hurricanes are similar that there will always be a next one, and most people remain unprepared. Those who can't handle a cat 3 will have no hope in the upcoming cat 5. Not all of the geezers and poor are at risk, just the complacent.
Keith Williams profile picture
@Old Wizard

It takes one concentrated city to get out of control. We have two populations centers of around 5 million people (Sydney, Melbourne). To control the outbreak was a big deal which involved getting the citizens engaged. The US has a leader who joked about the problem at a critical time and said it would go away. A key to the response in Australia was that State and Federal leaders established a national cabinet to address the problem. Normally the states and federal areas fight, especially across the parties. President Trump took the reverse position, mostly trying to blame the states.

If one takes Florida as a comparator.

Florida : cases 77,326; deaths 2,941; new cases today 1,758
Australia : cases 7,355; deaths 102; new cases today 15 (includes a family member who infected 10? relatives and several people returning from overseas)

Florida deaths/million population 137; number of tests 66,635
Australia deaths/million population 4; number of tests 71,830

I rest my case.
CaptainSolo profile picture
How Remdesivir Works to Fight COVID-19 Inside the Body time.com/...
Some other data that might inform the discussion. Brazil has almost an order of magnitude more people than Australia. The largest city in Brazil has over 12 million people, the largest city in Australia has five million plus. The WHO ranks the Australian public health system more than an order of magnitude better than Brazil’s, oh and of course both countries are in the Southern Hemisphere,
More data. In the US; DC has more reported deaths than 22 states despite being among the slowest to open their economy.. It also seems logical that since it has been estimated that more have had the infection and not known it, than have been tested positive by a factor of 3 to as high as ten, contact tracing can’t find most of the people possibly infected. Not that it shouldn’t be done, but it has to be realized that doing so for the newly tested infected people will not stop the spread possibly of the infection for the majority of infected people. And when the tracing identifies those exposed, without a therapeutic, it will not prevent the exposed from infection.

yet another instance of false equivalence. DC is an island without a moat. having lived there years ago, on the order of 80% of the people in the District during the weekday come in from MD and VA, and as far away as Harpers Ferry; likely even farther these days. lots and lots of opportunity to import Covid. lots and lots.
Keith Williams profile picture
@Old Wizard

Re Brazil versus Australia, all of your points are valid, but surely the defining difference is that Brazil is led by a person who has complete disregard for the dangers of COVID, seeing it as of little consequence. Hence he encourages dangerous behaviour and his is the epicenter of the global problem at the moment (43,389 deaths and up 598 today). Australian leadership by contrast has taken the threat seriously and its response has been led by the medical experts (102 dead). Of course a better comparison is between Australia and the US (now 117,849 dead, up 322 today).

When you consistently get no positives from testing a large number of citizens, you do have a basis for contact tracing and managing outbreaks. I agree with you that when the number of active cases is large, opening up the economy means that you are just letting the virus go. The US had 19,142 new cases today, while Australia had 18, which were almost all due to people in quarantine who recently entered the country.
@Keith Williams "is led by a person who has complete disregard for the dangers of COVID, seeing it as of little consequence."

That sounds oddly familiar.
Noticed some non corrected typos. The intended word suspect was mangled. There are several others that I missed. Please excuse my less than expert typing.ability.
Scripp's Virology has just reported a newly appreciated mutation in SARSCoV2 that has apparently evolved with the spread of the disease and seems to further increase the transmissibility rate of this virus by increasing the number and density of Spike proteins
on the viral capsule.

"In summary.......COVID 19, we show that an S protein mutation that results in more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 also limits shedding of the S1 domain and increases S-protein incorporation into the virion. Further studies will be necessary to determine the impact of this change on the nature and severity of COVID-19."

What does this mean in terms of pandemic COVID19? I don't know. It could be bad with more transmissibility meaning more people getting more easily infected with disease. On the other hand, it could conceivably be somewhat good with increased spike protein density making SARSCoV2 more immunogenic as well as an easier target for a vaccine targeting a spike protein complex. I'm sure we'll find out.
Cucumber, just to enlighten you further. 80% of deaths in the US from the Coronavirus are people age 65 and older. Close to 40% of deaths are in long term care facilities. Practically no deaths have occurred in the 0 to 15 age group and is under that caused by this year’s flu by almost a factor of five.
Instead of political statements what does the data inform you? The media, many politicians and others spend a lot of time wringing their hands verbally conjecturing a Coronavirus second wave might come this winter. Let’s just discuss the possibility that no vaccine, therapeutic medication are available this year and the virus doesn’t mutate to a less virulent form or by some unknown happenstance herd immunity occurs or the summer doesn’t kill the virus, it will still be infecting people. No doubt in this situation deaths will occur. What is your or for that matter the author’s vision for how the country should react? I’ll give you my view. We should strive to maintain a hospitalization number less than our capacity to treat patients and to minimize deaths. Economically, we should function as close to normal. We should be very attentive to making sure infected patients in long term care facilities are isolated and employees as well as residents in those facilities are tested often. Employees should wear ppe whenever they must deal with infected people. I also believe with future data and study our health officials will determine whether, if and what level of anti.bidies in the blood provides immunity and for how long. Testing for anti bodies should be as universal as possble. Of course if an effective therapeutic medication or vaccine is available before winter or the virus goes away that would be a better result. If we are not prepared to face the other downside case and not have an economic catastrophe we should plan to find a viable solution.
As for political statements, they should not pertain to the intent of this article.
Keith Williams profile picture
@Old Wizard

The issue is political as one of the core questions is the value of a human life versus not touching the economy.

President Trump has made his choice clear and the current death toll is over 117,000, while in Australia a determined effort has been made to get COVID under control, with just 102 deaths.

I suspect the decision to get the pandemic under control might have also been best for the economy as Australia is now cautiously reopening its economy. So is the US, but it is doing it when the virus is still rampant. Australia is in a position to identify and isolate new outbreaks (which will happen) while the US can't do that in any meaningful way when there is so much disease already out there.

The key issue is to keep the hospital system operating. While things are OK in relation to that in the US currently, there is still the possibility that there may be further outbreaks which challenge the hospitals.

We are where we are, so we have two tests (US approach versus Australia) running. Time will tell what is the most beneficial overall for the respective economies.

SARS-CoV-2 is in control at the moment and how it reacts to Northern summer will dictate the next few months. Come fall it may be a different story. In the Southern hemisphere winter the comparator is perhaps Brazil (US approach) versus Australia, New Zealand.
NDHT profile picture
Today China has reported 57 new cases. 19 from abroad and 38 are from within. 36 of the 38 are in Beijing, the capital, supposed to be the best of the best protected place.

No one really know how this happened yet. Some corona viruses are detected from the imported salmon fish.

It's too early to declared that it's under control by anyone.

The birds that try to sneak out their heads first will get shot first.

Eaves that overstretch the roof will become rotten first.
Keith Williams profile picture

I completely agree.

However, the difference between China, Australia etc and US, UK, Brazil etc is that the former countries have the numbers low enough and the testing high enough to be able to detect outbreaks early and then they have the machinery in place to limit them. That is why China, Australia etc can begin (and it is only begin) to think about turning their economies on again.

For the US to think that they can just turn on their economy and all will be fine is ....dreaming (unless the virus decides to pause until fall).
Doc 224899 profile picture
The most marketable product is Altimmune's nasal spray, as a treatment as well as to prevent infection.
CaptainSolo profile picture
Altimmune's nasal spray, " The overreaching goal is to start trials for the prevention and treatment of Covid-19."

GILD remdesivir is working on a nasal spray as well.
Look cucumber batch, you can hide behind the political attack all you want, where do you get your data? You do know that NY has had 4to5 times the deaths in long term care facilities than Florida’s total deaths. I included articles that also refer to California, Florida and Texas. Last I looked these are of red and blue colors. The average age for people deaths in Italy was 81. The number of people age 65 or older in Florida is higher than that of New York.and the total population roughly the same, you totally ignore the impact of the Hong Kong pandemic of .1968 and how we reacted to it. If you want to dismiss data and infer that observations of the data and its presentation are due to political persuasion then why bother to accumulate any data? If you maintain you are scientific and are informed by the data, then stick to that venue. In the final analysis, if the virus doesn’t ginaway by mutation nor summer dusapation or ifbno therapeutic is successful, what steady state economic condition and isolation condition do you think should be adopted.
Now that more states are opening up and trying to get the economy restored the media is again embarked on a scare campaign. Three articles appearing across the media including the WSJ and echoed by TV and social media highlight cumulative infections and number of hospitalizations, The gist of such articles is that the often repeatedly potential second serious wave is starting. I have read articles about such increases in Florida, Texas and California. Nowhere in the articles is there a plot of the number of deaths. That data s readily available to anyone who is interested in finding it. In each state the number of deaths is constant or slightly lower with time.
The media seems to have a vested interest in both scaring the public and convincing them that the country must not restore a semblance of normal life and economic activity. It has also forgotten to report whether the capacity of hospitals to treat virus patients is more than the hospitalizations occurring and the resulting deaths are not increasing with time. Cumulative numbers of course will increase until no deaths and infctions occur. The rearl question that should be asked is that condition predictable ever? People still die of the bubonic infection and that pandemic occurred almost seven centuries ago. 10s of thousands still die every year from the flu, but we don’t shut down the economy, nor not attend church or go to stadiums to watch baseball, soccer, football and we don’t close the schools. In 1968 the Hong Kong flu pandemic resulted in 100000 deaths in the US and 1 to 4 million in the world. I went to work and my older children went to school. Major sports went on as usual with the crowds in the stands. There was no therapeutics or vaccines and the population of the US was two thirds of what it is today. A linear ratio of that population to deaths incurred would yield .150000 deaths today. The question it seems to me that should be addressed is what is acceptable steady state, if no vaccine or therapeutic is available in the foreseeable. Surely it can’t be closed schools, perpetual wearing of masks and distancing, no spectator sports and a large portion of our small businesses not economically viable.
you do know that death follows initial infection by a lot of weeks, and hospitalization by a few less. come back with your Trumpster rant in a month.

what's funny about your post: the increases, some above over 100%, are almost entirely in Red State God's Country. Trumpster is even requiring those who want to adulate him in Tulsa *must* sign a Covid waiver. even he and his handlers know the truth.
While reasonable measures of caution are valid, the fear is unwarranted. Had this occurred during Obama's time, it would have been managed similarly to H1N1...with caution but not destruction. This overreaction by the leftists is an attempt to pressure Trump into mistakes while forcing control over the masses. The leftists are ignoring important considerations in statistics and analyses: Increase % of cases is utterly meaningless, especially when those Red State's have barely a handful of cases. The only stats that matter are hospitalizations, which aren't even getting completely reported. The other stats getting ignored are the % of asymptomatics, which are unknown but guessed at around 80%+. Regardless, this virus does not kill on its own and requires existing serious conditions. Better identification and protection of the high risk is all we should have ever had. I have yet to see major efforts to do so. Instead the choice to destroy our (and the world) economies was chosen. Basically people have forgotten how to be tough and accept risk.
" Basically people have forgotten how to be tough and accept risk."

that includes the Trumpster in Tulsa. if he and his handlers were so sure that nothing much will happen, they'd never demand that waiver. now would they? as things stand, we'll likely be rid of quite some poorly educated (Trump's favorites, by his own statements) in a month or so after Tulsa. and a month or so after the rest of his masturbatory arenas.
From June 5, 2020 comment "An oral combination of an effective antiviral with a cytokine storm modulator would seem to be what is needed to prevent common Covid 19 (PaO2>94% and RR<24 per minute) from progessing to severe Covid 19 (PaOT2<94% and RR.24 per minute), IMHO."

FAVIPIRAVIR now is being shown to be an effective oral antiviral in the treatment of Covid19.
Combining it with an effective oral il6 inhibitor into a two component pill (such as FAVIPIRAVIR plus calaibrutinib) is what could be envisioned as a potential therapeutic that could be given to common Covid 19 patients at risk for progressing to severe Covid disease.
From a early morning post on Janaury 25, 2020 here on SA


Jan 25, 2020. 01:22 AMLink"

Unfortunately turned out to be an accurate prediction
Keith Williams profile picture

It is an interesting plan.

I checked Clinicaltrials.gov and found 2 trials involving acalaibrutinib and 23 involving favipiravir, but none combining the drugs.

One that might interest you is a Chinese study clinicaltrials.gov/... which involves Favipiravir combined with IL-6 receptor inhibitor Tocilizumab.

The suggestion you mention is more interesting because it involves an oral IL-6 inhibitor. Tocilizumab is a monoclonal antibody and is injected.
Return to Value profile picture
Biocryst received the FDA money for the study on their oral antiviral. I'm guessing Galidesivir is a better bet.
Dr Yealy isn’t some guy. He holds a senior management position as the head of
Emergency medecine in that institution. His statement refers to the general observation that the cases they are treating seem to be milder. He says that a decrease in the severity of infection is not wholly attributed to the possible mutation of the virus. It seems to me if such a mutation has happened it can readily be verified. It also seems to me that the public health organizations would focus on discovering if it is, since it would be very instrumental in informing our public actions, if true. Of course, if the larger political process is more invested in believing that the virus will flare up again possibly in a more virulent form and so we should keep our schools closed, our businesses tethered to distancing , reduced capacity, etc. then let’s dismiss the positive mutation possibility..
Steve Auger profile picture
Did you know:

The two greatest drug discoveries of the 20th century were not by pharmaceutical companies.

Sir Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin and it should be noted that "It is interesting that using penicillin for the treatment of infections like pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial endocarditis never had a randomized, controlled trial because the difference with treatment was so clearly apparent that no one even thought of doing a randomized controlled trial."

Sir Frederick Banting and colleagues discovered insulin and:
"Demonstrating his altruistic commitment to advance medicine, Banting sold the patent rights for insulin to The University of Toronto for $1, claiming that the discovery belonged to the world, not to him."
neither did Salk. are you asserting that Rem ought to be 'donated' to the public domain? are you arguing that PhRMA spends more on SG&A than on R&D, and should thus be regulated? and so on. btw, since Salk, how many 'new drugs' have come out of individual researchers (not that Salk cooked up the vaccine alone in his basement!) unaided by Damn Gummint funding? you are aware that research has found that 99%+ of 'new drugs' are based on Damn Gummint paid for (direct and indirect) R&D? and so on.
Steve Auger profile picture
Who says Rem should be peddled at all? In fact, the WHO denounced Rem when it saw the test results.

"how many 'new drugs' have come out of individual researchers (not that Salk cooked up the vaccine alone in his basement!) unaided by Damn Gummint funding? you are aware that research has found that 99%+ of 'new drugs' are based on Damn Gummint paid for (direct and indirect) R&D? and so on."

And that is precisely the problem. Big Pharma funding is putting a bias on what we end up with.
AgileDave profile picture
There are probably some natural meds like penicillin yet to be found, but the most dramatic advances are technological, which is expensive, The real solution for many diseases where hi tech solutions are needed is avoiding a lifetime of poor diets and sedentary lifestyles. But there isn't much of a spinach lobby, so medical establishment and their government lapdogs ignore lifestyle. Their business model is pills and procedures, so that's what we get. They also cultivate a cult of wizardry to discourage consumer education. Being a smarter health consumer is a matter of life and death. Ours.
CaptainSolo profile picture
Good news about remdesivir every day. Bad news is US will have about 180,000 deaths by Christmas. www.msn.com/...

Singapore approves remdesivir drug for emergency COVID-19 treatment TODAY www.msn.com/...
EliasMouawad profile picture
@CaptainSolo Is GILD a screaming buy at $68 ?
09 Jun. 2020
Stop trying to pump Gilead.This market rallied 1000 points when the remdesivir news came out a month ago. Then we found out the data was too premature (to say the least). Let them finish all their studies for crying out loud.
Keith Williams profile picture

You draw your own conclusion about what this article says about GILD.

In the conclusion I say : It looks like some success is already baked into the current share price, so any adverse results might impact the Gilead share price negatively. However, remdesivir might be as good as it gets (and that might not be very good) to treat the later stages of the disease.

I'd hate to see a negative report if this is pumping the stock....
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