S&P 500 Earnings Update: 2021 S&P 500 EPS Still Above 2019

Jun. 06, 2020 10:33 AM ETSPY, QQQ, VOO, DIA, TQQQ, SH, IVV, IVE, SDS, SQQQ, SPLV, SPXL, VUG, SPXU, UPRO, SSO, CRF, SPXS, USA, VTV, RSP, SPYG, UDOW, VFINX, VOOG, PSQ, IWF, SDOW, MGK, QLD, QID, SCHX, SCHG, IVW, DOG, DXD, DDM, SPYV, SPHQ, IWD, VV, TMFC, SCHV, ENTR-OLD, ZTR, RPV, PRF, MGC, SKF, VOOV, MGV, EPS, IWB, RPG, OEF, IWY, VONG, SPLG, GSLC, QQQE, SPGP, SPHB, QQEW, SPDN, LGLV, XLG, FNDX, DEEP, PWV, ILCG, EQAL, JUST, VONE, VONV, SPUU, FEX, YPS, PWB, ESGU, ILCB, IWL, SFY, EEH, EQL, FLGE, ILCV, QUS, SPLX, FTA, FTC, XRLV, IWX, SPXT, UTRN, DMRL, ONEY, GSEW, CFA, SPMO, SPVM, BIBL, CFO, DSTL, QQXT, SPXE, CHGX, EDOW, FBGX, HUSV, PPLC, SPVU, DUSA, QARP, RWL, SLT, ONEV, USMC, FLLV, PLC, QMOM, SPXV, ONEO, CLRG, DEUS, EQWL, QMJ, UDPIX, BAPR, FDG, JHML, LSLT, OMFL, RWGV, SPXN, SYG, USLB, AMCA, OTPIX, ROUS, BAUG, BJUL, BJUN, POCT, SYV, VSL, BOCT, JEPI, SPMV, SYE, AMOM, ESGS, FMK, QRFT, WTV, RYARX, SSPY, SURE, IUS, PAPR, PJUL, RWVG, SFYF, TPLC, BUL, FLV, PJAN, PQLC, RWUI, BJAN, PAUG, PJUN, PMOM, RECS, RWLS, UJAN, UOCT, USEQ, CFCV, FBCG, REVS, TRND, UAPR, UAUG, UJUN, FBCV11 Comments

Brian Gilmartin, CFA

9.48K Followers

Summary

The revisions continue to be "less negative."
Both the 2020 and 2021 annual estimates saw a positive revision for the week.
The 23x multiple for 2020 doesn't look so great for the S&P 500, but the 17x multiple for 2021 looks better.

So far anyway, although there is another four weeks until Q2 '20 earnings start, here is how 2019-2021 S&P 500 EPS look:

2021: $164.00 (current estimate for full-year 2021 S&P 500 EPS)
2020: $125.48 (current estimate)
2019: $162.93 - actual

I've written the last six weeks that I felt it was important that the S&P 500 estimate for 2021 remain above 2019's actual $162.93.

So far, that is the case.

What's interesting about this week's data is not only do the revisions continue to be "less negative," but also both the 2020 and 2021 annual estimates saw a positive revision for the week.

Haven't seen that in about three months.

Averaging the 2020 and 2021 S&P 500 full-year EPS estimates, the 4% average growth rate has been constant now for 14 straight weeks.

The 23x multiple for 2020 doesn't look so great for the S&P 500, but the 17x multiple for 2021 looks better.

Summary/conclusion: The revision data for the S&P 500 continues to be a plus for the market, although it's hard to comprehend the price action of +10% for the S&P 500's return in the last three weeks being all due to earnings. A lot of positives this week, with the Treasury yield curve action, the action in banks and airlines, etc.

More to come this weekend, probably on Sunday.

As always, thank you for reading.

Original post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

This article was written by

Brian Gilmartin, CFA

9.48K Followers

Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xavier University, Cincinnati, Ohio, (1982) and an MBA (Finance) from Loyola University, Chicago, January, 1985. The CFA was awarded in 1994. Brian has been fortunate enough to write for the TheStreet.com from 2000 to 2012, and then the WallStreet AllStars from August 2011, to Spring, 2012. Brian also wrote for Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal.

Summary

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