ARK Changes Its View On Tesla

Summary

• New note suggests Tesla will launch human-based ride network.
• Cost to consumers goes up dramatically.
• Yet, ARK raises its bear case substantially for 2024.

A few months ago, ARK Invest published its latest model on electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). While some may think the coronavirus situation will really hurt the car company, ARK actually believes it is a good thing for Tesla. As a result, they say that Tesla shares should trade to nearly $7,000 by 2024 as shown below. This week, a new note out from the ETF and research firm suggests that Tesla will do something completely different, yet ARK argues that the bear case is now substantially more valuable.

(Source: ARK tweet linked above)

Let's rewind a bit to what ARK has been saying all along. They believe that Tesla will launch an autonomous vehicle ride hailing service, competing against the likes of Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT). The key part here is that by not having to pay a driver, ARK believes Tesla's service could cost consumers just $0.25 per mile. That's a tremendously low price, one that would likely grab a ton of market share and bring in billions of revenue to Tesla.

Part of this entire master plan was for Tesla to have a million robo-taxis on the road this year. However, the company has been behind on its ambitions for its full self-driving package. Now, it appears that the hope is to have a car driving, with an observer, perhaps next year according to Elon Musk. As a reminder, when Tesla launched Model 3 leasing in 2019, consumers were told after the 3-year lease was up they could not buy those vehicles, as Tesla would then be bringing them back to the company to use in this ride-hailing network.

That gets me to the present, where ARK has apparently changed their line of thought in a big way. As the graphic below shows, the firm now believes that Tesla would just launch another version of Uber or Lyft, basically a taxi service. As a result, this brings up their bear case value for 2024 by 80%, based on substantial revenue and earnings increases.

(Source: Diogenes tweet, seen here)

I'm not quite sure how Tesla would make so much money in this scenario, given Uber and Lyft aren't exactly gushing in profits right now. The other part is that instead of consumers paying $0.25 per mile, they are now paying at least $3 a mile, so how much market share is possible then? Let's not forget that Tesla doesn't even have a ride-hailing network right now, so how long will it take them to actually build one out? This would require substantial investments not only in people and technology, but infrastructure like many more superchargers.

Of course, ARK's recent history regarding Tesla isn't exactly pristine. The firm claims to have a 10% position limit in their exchange-traded funds, which isn't exactly true to start with (prospectus says 30% limit on individual names), but they've bought Tesla shares well above that weighting in their funds. Recently, ARK has not been showing any Tesla purchases in its daily e-mails, making it seem like they are a big seller of shares.

Tesla is held in three of ARK's five main ETFs: the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), the ARK Industrial Innovation ETF (ARKQ), and the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW). In the past 35 trading days, their daily e-mails show sales of 107,249 Tesla shares between these three funds. However, if you go to their individual ETF pages like this one and track the daily holdings as I have, the three ETFs have increased their total Tesla holdings by 19,521 shares over this time. At Tesla's average close over that time, that's a difference of over $101.7 million in shares.

In the end, Tesla's biggest supporter seems to have completely changed its narrative. Previously, the thought process was that Tesla would have an ultra dominant autonomous vehicle ride-hailing service that would make Tesla worth several times what it trades for today. This week, ARK is talking about the electric vehicle maker launching another version of Uber or Lyft, yet their Tesla bear case price is hiked by 80%. When combined with ARK's questionable position changes in Tesla shares recently, it's hard to find a lot of credibility here.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.

Comments

[electra7]

What exactly is the point for talking about thing eons out as in :

ARK raises its bear case substantially for 2024

[electra7]

I don't know how that could possibly work but neither do I know how to launch and land a rocket, disrupt the current oil-luvin' transportation system that we have or get the masses to forget I once had a receding hairline.

and that is why I own the stock.

It is not often you get a guy, this smart with media grit. The guy is simply brilliant.

[Bill Maurer]

For those scoring at home:

Ark has added another 8,986 Tesla shares in its three ETFs over the past two days, and yes, there was no mention of it in the daily e-mail.

All 3 ETFs have at least a 10.5% weight in Tesla, including ARKQ now at 12.69% with today's buy.

[truwa]

ARK is long TSLA. They always were and they still are.

I would worry about the people who does not have a position in TSLA while claiming that it will go bankrupt.

[Shanester1]

To author,
3 things.
1. Elon Musk has tweeted that it might be wise to launch a human powered version of the Tesla network before the robo version is launched. Ark is wise to build this into their model, they are only reflecting the words of the ceo. I’m not sure why you negated to point this out?

2. It would be wise to do a human powered version before going full robo. It gets the name out to the public, it allows kinks to be ironed out, it builds brand awareness. I don’t a agree with ark that it will be a huge profit center for Tesla, as you mentioned, Uber and Lyft are not exactly swimming in profit. Tesla would be wise to attempt a “break even” on a human powered Tesla network as the previously mentioned benefits will be enough to make it worth while and when the robo taxis are ready the profits will come gushing in.

3. Ark has gone on record multiple times stating that they are selling Tesla shares now because the stock price keeps going up and they are trying to maintain a 10% balance on the fund. Why did you not put this in your article? Are you trying to mislead people? It’s fine if you want to insinuate something sinister but not including the the real reason is just disingenuous.

[Legacy Legends, LLC]

ARK smart money managers!

[CEFJE]

Musk saying he would have 1 million robotaxis is a bit misleading....lofl.

[Bill Maurer]

@Shanester1

1. What Musk says and does are two different things. Musk said Tesla would have a million robotaxis on the road this year. Those aren't human powered.

2. No, Ark is not selling as Tesla goes up. They have been buying more and more, including over the last two months when the fund weightings were above 12%.

[AndrewCL]

You seem to be implying that ARK is engaged in some sort of fraud by not reporting buys, but isn't it possible that there is an alternative explanation for why they have more shares of TSLA despite the sales? Just looking at the flagship fund, ARKK, as of January 31, 2020, it had just under $2 billion in investments. but looking at the daily holdings sheet from 6/9/20 and adding them up, it looks like ARKK now has roughly $4 billion in assets. It's up on the year, but only about 20% from January 31 (not 100%), so one explanation is that market makers (or maybe another institution) have given them a lot more assets to play around with in return for additional ARKK shares. The same would go for ARKW and ARKQ. If I am right, it was not unreported buys that resulted in more raw #s of TSLA shares.

[Bill Maurer]

@AndrewCL

ARKK and ARKW have increased their positions quite considerably since I started tracking on 3/25. ARKQ has not.

Still, they've increased their holdings quite a bit at times while showing numerous sales to make it seem like they are selling.

[Mberry245]

If they were to rent out RoboTaxis (I know I won't see any in my lifetime) at $ 0.25 per mile, if that car would run another 100,000 miles after lease end, it would bring in 25k over maybe one year, if at all. How much do the charging, electricity, maintenance, and service of the system cost? Does it even make sense in the (unlikely) case it would become true before 2078?

[notasmidgeon]

" Does it even make sense …"
About as much as semi-owners paying $0.07/KWh to recharge.

[Aaron Scheiwiller (murthag11)]

I'm sorry to hear that you will go from us this early, I was hoping you could spread your wisdom for longer than the coming 2-3 years.. /s

[solucky]

@Mberry245

" If they were to rent out RoboTaxis (I know I won't see any in my lifetime) at $ 0.25 per mile "

As long as you need a driver anyone can offer the service cheaper than Tesla. Cost per mile in a KIA, Hyundai , Renault BEV are much cheaper.

Teslas only hope is to have EXCLUSIVE robotaxis that dont drive in trucks and pedestrians. So far the hard and software is not legal here and Tesla need an upgraded version.

[GB77]

Wait, no FCF from covid vaccine development in their model? It is really funny these guys adjust models of completely non-existing business segments.

The fun part starts with publishing excerpts from their model. Buy-side models are not meant to be ever published.

[Guy Whitehead]

Reset button time. If we are going to discuss Bill’s article, we should first actually read it, work through the implications, and then decide whether or not we agree.
1) Bill said that a
Ark is predicting a Uber Lyft model of taxis with “observers” rather than drivers in the cars. This is supposed to generate billions in revenues and profits and help boost the “bear” price target which was predicated on no FSD. Bill did NOT say and his title did not imply that ARK had changed its bullish stance. In fact he pointed out that ARK seems to be giving up on FSD in the short term. This should be very bearish and is a major change for ARK and bulls, but in fact ARK is becoming even more bullish.
2) imminent FSD is a key part of ARK’s bull scenario. Delaying it should bring down the most optimistic price targets but it hasn’t. Very strange.
3) it seems that ARK is changing its view on FSD to more bearish overall. FSD is critical to hyper optimism on Tesla, since car sales, solar and storage are not showing good growth. And yet ARK’s price targets don’t reflect ARK’s more sober view of FSD.
Uber and LYFT disrupted the taxi market, but have lost vast amounts of money doing so. There is no reason to believe Teslas with “observers” can do better.
Very few of the 200 comments so far have attempted to address the paradox in ARK’s analysis that Bill has pointed out.

[kan2905]

@Guy Whitehead
ARK bear case is: no FSD at all. Now, if TSLA starts wil human network, the bear case improves. I am surprised Bill did not catch that.
Human network means faster robot FSD. Why not start by testing it out with humans. Build the network, work out the bugs.
If uber is worth 60 B$, why not add another 60B$ valuation to TSLA ?

Human network does not mean anything has changed longer term.

[Guy Whitehead]

@kan2905 Bill did catch how ARK believes the human taxi service would improve Tesla’s bear case. He just didn’t agree that joining two big disruptive money losing players in taxis would add billions to Tesla profits. Note: NOTHING, not cars, not solar, not storage has ever added one billion dollars to Tesla’s profits.
Why would taxis?

[CEFJE]

It means Musk BS'd everyone with the 1 million robotaxi scam.
Musk is proof millenials and whatever they call the next generation don't care about honesty as long as they can line their pockets(stock price).
But then, that's what they bad mouth about their parents generation.......LOFL.
That's ok, America will always need some naked capatalists in the mix so we have enough tax revenue to pay for the people who can't support themselves.

[User 51137582]

SHANGHAI, China, June 09, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NIO Inc. (NIOCF) (NYSE: NIO) (“NIO” or the “Company”), a pioneer in China’s premium smart electric vehicle market, today announced the commencement of the offering of 60,000,000 American depositary shares (the “ADSs”), each representing one Class A ordinary share of the Company (the “ADS Offering”). The Company intends to grant the underwriters in the ADS Offering a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 9,000,000 ADSs.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC and China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited are acting as the joint book-running managers for the ADS Offering.

The ADSs will be offered under the Company’s shelf registration statement on Form F-3 which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and automatically became effective on June 9, 2020. A preliminary prospectus supplement related to the proposed ADS Offering has been filed with the SEC. seekingalpha.com/...

So the questions are: Given NIOs "funding secured" status now; their upgraded "German Designed" Luxury ES8 with +5000/mth capacity coming a FULL SUBSIDY and with OTA updates and Level 3 Radar/Vision Mobileeye Autonomous driving capability; along with their recently new Luxury ES6 selling over with 5000/mth capacity close to beating Tesla M3 sales in H2 last year and killing the S/X sales; plus NIOs new EC6 Luxury EC6 Crossover SUV on sale from September .... could NIO be the 6th Chinese Auto manufacturer to be Outselling Tesla by the end of this Year?

Could be.

But first TESLA and NIO will have to also BEAT the new "German M-B designed" BYD HAN Luxury Sedan with L2 autonomous driving OTA updates that's as cheap/er as a Model 3;
the even cheaper GAC Aion S (and Toyota iA5) Premium Sedan and the Luxury Aion LX SUV with Level 3 Autonomous driving and OTA Updates and 650 kms range that's cheaper than a Model 3 LR RWD; and
the All-New GAC/NIO Hycan 007 - Luxury Crossover SUV also with Level 3 Autonomous driving and much much more; and later
the sleek Luxury Polestar 2 sports sedan with OTA updates Level Autonomy and In-Built Google AI Voice / Navigate / Android entertainment system; and then later in the year
The New Xpeng P7- Super Luxury Sports Sedan with Super Long Range of +700 kms and Level 3 Autonomous driving with OTA updates and much more than anyone can get in Tesla Model 3, Model S or X in China!

There are more than a dozen solid reasons why the Chinese will NOT Buy a new Tesla this Year. Have a browse, more data and credible info coming soon. seekingalpha.com/...

[User 51137582]

You see when add just the current production capacity of these particular cars by the brands listed and they have ramped to full output combined it's between 40000 to 60000 units per month - around 600,000 per year vs Tesla "projected" 150K-200K per year out of Shanghai. It's not happened yet.

And a BEV sales level 2019 of only 43,800 units for Tesla versus BAIC with 150,000, BYD with 120,000, SAIC 112,000, Geely 53,000, Chery 47,000 and GAC 43,000 - 525,000 vs 43,800 by Tesla - or maybe 150,000 by Tesla.

NIO only sold 21000 in all of 2019 - but they have quickly ramped up production capacity, their finances, the charging/battery swap stations, and sales/service outlets over the last 12 months - and in 3 months form now they are selling 3 different advanced high quality luxury models all with a Full Subsidy due their battery swap system.

All this before the Model Y (pseudo SUV) even hits the streets of Shanghai in 2020. Who is better placed going into 2020 then?

Nio with 3 luxury SUVs and Level 3 autonomy and OTA system updates and +650 km range with plus 120,000 capacity in 2020?

Or Tesla's with it's MIC Model Y with no Subsidy and maybe a 100,000 capacity out of GF3?

All selling much cheaper high performance high tech BEV autos.
All with an equivalent or better range than a Tesla.
And very soon in 2021 all will have Level 3 ADAS Autonomous driving and OTA updates and 5G capable as well.

NIO is only being used here as an example. There are at least 10 Chinese BEV Brands gunning for Tesla's target market in 2020/2021. Then add in Toyota, Volkswagen, Audi, Mercede-Benz, Hyundai, Kia, and Renault.

eg Renault has gone 100% EV only in China.

NIO's share price has surged 147% to a all time high in the last 6 months for very sound business investment reasons begin bought by those in the know. What did you know?

And if NIO sells 120,000 top class luxury BEVs in the next 12 months, what then? Or if BYD can sell 200,000 luxury Han sedans before they start exporting to Europe next year, what then? And GAC sells another 100,000 or more and Hycan sells another 60,000 units in the same time?

How many rich Chinese BEV customers are left to buy a brand new overpriced Tesla?

[Breebel]

Those who can afford to buy a Tesla in China will buy a Tesla.

It's the same reason why you would spend the money on a Louis Vuitton bag or a Patek Phillipe watch...it's the brand that's important.

Huawei is big in China, but Apple still sells quite well.

Tesla is THE EV brand. You're not buying a car, you're buying the brand and the ability to say 'I drive a Tesla'. It's aspirational.

NIO, BYD and Xpeng aren't.

[martin1234]

Korinth, it seems you like Nio, with respect to your profile picture.

But:
Did you know that Nio went public in the US because they did not qualify for the Chinese stock market?
And so far they let others produce the car, while they just designed it.
So where should a profit come from?
Actually the battery pack is a key element to generate profits, but Nio produces nothing so far?

The design is not bad, but we will see in 1-2 years how that turns out.
Meanwhile Tesla has 1 million cars on the road and will add at least 500k each year.

[User 51137582]

Bill isn't alone in reporting the "news" - the average stock-price forecast implies downside of 33%.

The evidence?

Moreover, having exceeded the 10,160 Model 3s sold in March, Tesla’s first year of production at its Giga 3 factory appears to be “on a run rate to hit 100,000 unit deliveries,” and back on track to achieve its yearly targets.

“The key bogey to hit ~400k deliveries globally for the year (down from original 550k pre COVID) remains on track and could prove to be conservative depending on the pace of the lockdowns easing globally,” Ives said.

Despite the promising numbers, Tesla’s lofty valuation Keeps Ives on the sidelines with a Neutral rating. The 5-star analyst’s $800 price target implies shares will drop by 14.5% over the next year. (To watch Ives’ track record, click here)

So, that’s the Wedbush view, turning now to the rest of the Street; As is expected where Musk & Co. are concerned, opinions are divided when considering Tesla’s prospects. 9 Buys, 9 Holds and 10 Sells add up to a Hold consensus rating. The bears are in this EV’s driving seat, as the average stock-price forecast is $628.76 and implies downside of 33%.

from www.smarteranalyst.com/...

[User 51137582]

It's truly sad.

"When combined with ARK's questionable position changes in Tesla shares recently, it's hard to find a lot of credibility here."

People believe this level of mysticism anyway Bill.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect:
Are the Stupid Too Stupid to Realize They’re Stupid?
Yes!
www.patheos.com/...

[jcarpe4]

Pride is a dangerous thing Korinth. I hope you didn't lose too much money shorting and don't beat yourself over the head for missing out.

[User 51137582]

@jcarpe4

Why assume I have ever shorted anything let alone lost $ doing so? Because I haven't. Sorry to shatter another fictional version of reality.

[CEFJE]

Black people keep voting for Democrats to run their cities/police departments even though they get incidents like Mr. Floyd(Democrat Mayor....who hites the police chief/supervises the police dep't and Dem city council), same as Ferguson.........then Democrats come along and say they can fix it(the conditions THEY created).
I don't call them stupid, just conditioned over decades to believe what their parents tell them, I call it sad.

[Entreri]

Legacy auto is dead for investors. Stock market is forward looking. Amazon, Netflix...

Nikolai (I wouldn’t touch btw) has a market cap similar to Ford.

[DinkSinger]

"Part of this entire master plan was for Tesla to have a million robo-taxis on the road this year."

No it was not. The projection provided on Autonomy Investors Day was that by mid-2020 (just about now) there would be 1,000,000 vehicles with full self driving hardware. Tesla backed off from that slightly at the stockholders meeting held one-year ago this week explaining that the million vehicles would have the complete set of detectors for full self driving and could be upgraded with the new FSD computer. In Musk's Autonomy Day talk, after he had given the caveat that "We're going to do the robotaxi thing too. The only criticism, and it's a fair one, sometimes I'm not on time. But I get it done and the Tesla team gets it done." he said "By the middle of next year we will have over a million Tesla cars on the road with Full Self Driving hardware, feature complete, at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention meaning you could go to sleep. From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year to look, maybe a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with over the air update. That is all it takes." Feature complete means having some capability for supervised autonomy in all types of driving, local streets and roads as well as parking lots and highways and that appears to have mostly been achieved. The fleet wakes up part says that there will be a million potential robotaxis that can at some future time be activated. Musk went on to say that, "We expect to have the first operating robotaxis next year -- with no one in them -- next year. ... I feel very confident in predicting autonomous robo-taxis for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere. But I'm confident that we will have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year". A robotaxi with no one in it is just a test and "at least regulatory approval somewhere" means in one jurisdiction.

The reason the million potential robotaxis are important is that all of them that have the FSD computer are testing the FSD software everytime they are driven, even if the owner did not purchase the FSD option. The autonomous software is running in shadow mode and every time the human driver does something different than FSD would do that is noted and if the human did better (more and more frequently that will not be the case) they are training FSD. Tesla now has collected data from 3 billion miles of driving. An example how Tesla is collecting the data is the traffic and stop sign control beta. It prepares to stop at green lights and corners that might have a stop sign and the driver must confirm it is all right to proceed. This likely is annoying enough that most drivers turn it off, but that doesn't matter FSD is still running in shadow mode. (It also allows Tesla to release a little more of the deferred FSD revenue.)

A big piece of Tesla's master plan is that there is no buyout option at the end of Model 3 leases. All Model 3s will be coming back to Tesla at the end of the lease and can be used as Tesla owned robotaxis. But should robotaxi be a little late, the resale value of Model 3s seems to be very good.

[td5221]

and what's your point after all that?... to simply add clarity? ... you see... you spend 3 large paragraphs making sure that the facts are accurate... while subtly implying robotaxis are indeed coming... this is the FRAUD of this whole charade... you go all out "correcting" the person that points out the misleading communication by everything Tesla... and then you literally do it yourself... so let me ask you this directly...

when will there be robotaxis?... and

since you point out "3 billion miles"... how many miles need to be recorded until robotaxis become real?

the second question is rhetorical... because you can't answer it... and you know that... which is the other form of manipulation and fraud that exists in this story...

well done... you've pretty much shown exactly how the Tesla brain works to recruit and train others. this is a scam. you're entire "correction" is how the scam works.

just admit it... you have NO idea when there will be robotaxis... NO idea... you do not know if it will be this decade or even Tesla.

but I'm sure you include it in the valuation when justifying it to others... don't you.

[User 51137582]

@DinkSinger

Your very quote proves you're totally wrong.

In Musk's Autonomy Day talk, after he had given the caveat that :

"We're going to do the robotaxi thing too. The only criticism, and it's a fair one, sometimes I'm not on time. But I get it done and the Tesla team gets it done." he said "By the middle of next year we will have over a million Tesla cars on the road with Full Self Driving hardware, feature complete, at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention meaning you could go to sleep. From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year to look, maybe a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with over the air update. That is all it takes."

BEING "feature complete, at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention meaning you could go to sleep"

That's hardware and software FEATURE COMPLETE FSD Autonomy.

"but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road."

Tesla will have NONE this year and none next year and none 5 years from now.

The fleet doesn't need to wake up but Tesla's fanatical investors and PR Army sure do.

[jcarpe4]

Maybe you should drive a Tesla first. I don't think you have. Best purchase in my entire life.

[Barnabizer]

A 180? What are you talking about? They raised their bear case! That is bullish the stock. No 180 here! What non sense

[Watcher of the Fray]

www.kbb.com/...
www.fhwa.dot.gov/...

5 year total cost of ownership for a Honda Accord is $35,185
Americans drive 13,476 miles per year on average
So, at $0.25 per mile, the total cost of using robo-taxis exclusively for 5 years is $16,845

Now, if we were to do this calculation using a Model 3, the savings of using robo-taxi as ONLY mean of transportation is much greater.

So, why bother buying a car?

So, my recommendation is to NOT buy any car, ESPECIALLY Tesla vehicles, and just wait for the robo-taxis.

Imagine that you don't even need to look for a parking space anymore! Yep, all car manufacturers are doomed, doomed I say. This is because we will all just be riding robo-taxis in the near future. Did I say doomed?

[alexalekhine]

Does total cost of ownership include the value for which the car can be sold after five years?

[watchingfromabove]

@alexalekhine

"Does total cost of ownership include the value for which the car can be sold after five years?"

The amount you are paid for the car when you dispose of it is subtracted from the amount you have paid in for the purchase and operating including interest, taxes, maintenance, fuel, consumables like tires, etc. (five years really doesn't matter unless that is when you disposed of it).

[my8cents]

Most of the recent articles are really just noise. Just stick to the actuals, last quarter tesla made a profit because of CO2 credits. The free cash flow is negative, they need to invest heavily if they want to produce more vehicles. This already shows, RoS is not better in comparison to all other car manufacturers. The big question is, is the demand big enough in Europe to let Tesla be able to sell all the produced vehicles? My answer is NO, because the Germans buy german cars, and the E tron, the ID3, the EQC are great cars, the french buy french etc. etc. also in Asia, Japanese are absolutely not interested in Tesla at all. And in China , Chinese competition is extremely strong. So it doesn’t matter what the next quarter will be, the only reason why the stock is up , is because the Americans are so centric in their investments towards Tesla. But all other countries are also very centric to their own countries. Thats why one car company cannot really gets the entire pie. To pay now for a stock with a market capitalization of 160 BN does not make sense. And the next capital increase will come.

[Baslim]

Bill's last article had good info. If you read this and not that then you chose wrong.

There is a lot that Bill missed in this article.

1) The cost of $0.25 per mile is the cost to the owner of a Tesla not including the cost of using the Tesla app. The price has always started at a much higher number and would go down as there is more competition.

2) The bear case has always been that robotaxi won't happen, so there seems to be no change in the bull case.

3) Will a ridesharing be worth $1000 per share? Not sure but this is a price that was in ARKs models before and competitive with Uber and Lyft. Bill's points on profitability are worth looking at.

4) ARKs buying and selling of Tesla to stay near 10% is complicated and has made ARK a lot.

5) There is no evidence of any change in ARK from this article except adding ride hailing to the bear case. The probability of Robotaxi is still at 30% and not until late 2021 or 2022. Well behind Tesla's schedule.

[davebelize]

So what did Cathie Wood say when you did your due diligence and called her or her analysts/partners for their side of your story? Or, was that an inconvenient truth you just didn’t want to deal with? Because, I can tell you this Bill, every time #Tesla goes on a run, there’s old Bill trying anything to knock it down, and you’re consistently wrong. So, when it comes to credibility, I’m with Cathie Wood over someone who may not hold a position but is certainly and conspicuously holding at least 30 pcs of silver.

[Bill Maurer]

@davebelize

So someone that lies on CNBC and also pumps and dumps Tesla shares has tremendous credibility in your opinion? Good to know.

[jcarpe4]

Thats a ridiculous accusation and it should make everyone trust you less. She is extremely open with their research, more so than most of us deserve. It's up to you to make a decision on whether or not you agree with her. She sells shares as part of portfolio rebalancing nothing sinister.

[Bill Maurer]

@jcarpe4

It's not an accusation. It's the truth.

She went on CNBC talking up a huge price target, yet in those same days was selling Tesla shares. That's called a pump and dump.

And she says the 10% rule is a portfolio rule. It's not. It's a self-imposed rule, one she isn't following to begin with. The prospectus clearly states 30% is the limit.

[JBeans]

They didn't have ride-sharing as part of their bear case.
They added it.
That makes the value go up.
You can do the math yourself by looking at their model.
github.com/...

[Bill Maurer]

@JBeans

No, they just had unrealistic expectations about selling 3.2 million vehicles at a 40% margin in their bear case.

I said that they changed the bear case price target, which is true.

But the grand change is that Ark's primary line of thinking is that Tesla will just launch the robotaxi network and dominate the world. Now they are saying Tesla could just launch another version of Uber/Lyft. To me, that's a significant change.