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Fossil Group: Don't Catch This Falling Knife

Jun. 09, 2020 1:36 PM ETFossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)
Jesse Cash profile picture
Jesse Cash


  • This once popular brand has fallen on hard times.
  • Financials have been deteriorating for 6 years.
  • Company management is making an effort to turn things around.
  • Don't invest in the turnaround, until evidence shows a record of success.

Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) is a designer and manufacturer of watches, leather goods, and jewelry. They design Fossil brand merchandise as well as licensed goods for many top brands including Kate Spade, DKNY, Armani, and BMW. In total, the company produces goods under 17 brand names. At one time, their flagship Fossil brand was extremely popular. I have owned several Fossil watches and other merchandise over the years, as have many of the people I know. However, in recent years, the company has fallen on hard times. Their financials have been falling for six years and do not yet show signs of a turnaround. Although the stock price is very low, Fossil is not currently a good investment, even for speculative investors hoping for a turnaround. The likelihood of failure is simply too high without evidence of gradual success.

Fossil Brand Watch

(Source: FossilGroup.com)


At one time, the Fossil Brand was very popular. Fossil stores were in many malls and, constantly, seemed busy. It seemed that almost everyone had something from the brand: a watch, a belt, or a wallet. Much of what they sold was unique and different. I once had a Fossil watch that had a beveled crystal top, that was not like anything else I had ever seen. I frequently received compliments on it. Much of their merchandise was unique in that way.

For years, the stock of Fossil Group had solid financials that grew and improved, in the way that excellent companies, with in-demand products, often do. Year after year, the revenues, profits, and book value rose. However, this began to change in 2014 when the numbers began to weaken and fall.

Revenue Per Share Earnings Per Share (Basic) Book Value Per share


13.5 1.22 7.37
2005 15.23 .90 7.7
2006 17.93 1.13 8.89

This article was written by

Jesse Cash profile picture
I am an investor with more than 20 years of experience, in good an bad markets. I believe smart, strategy driven investing can lead to financial freedom. I use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis, and use a combination of strategies including:long, short, dividend, options (by and selling) and combinations of the above. I tend to look at the world differently than most, and this has been a source of success for me. Disclosure: I'm not a financial adviser. All articles are my opinion - they are not suggestions to buy or sell any securities. Perform your own due diligence and consult a financial professional before trading.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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