49 Top U.S. REITs By Gains And Yield For June

Summary

• Global Net Lease Inc. showed top-broker estimated net gains of 13.19%, including a 9.59% yield out of 49 U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts surveyed from YCharts June 9.
• Top 10 net gainers - STWD, EARN, KREF, PLYM, SVC, NLY, DX, AFIN, RC, and GNL - ranged 15.0-21.78% 6/9/20. The top 49 US REITs by yield represented all 9 REIT industries.
• 49 top US REITs by yield ranged 7.05-35.52%. Top ten - SVC, ORC, NLY, ARI, CHMI, RWT, CIM, RC, TRTX, and IVR - averaged 17.8% yield (That 35.5% yielder pays 10% in cash).
• 41 top US REITs by broker estimated one-year upsides ranged -49.67% to 144.37%. Top ten - CHMI, KREF, PLYM, AFIN, GNL, LADR, CXW, GEO, ORC, and RVI - averaged 37.3% upside.
• $5k invested in the lowest-priced five June top-yield US Real Estate Investment Trusts showed 28.7% LESS net gain than that from $5k invested in all ten. Bigger, higher-priced REITs solidly led the pack on June 9.
• Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Dog Catcher get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Get started today »

Foreword

Any collection of dividend stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these US exchange sourced real estate investment trust stocks are perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the June 9 data for 49 top dividend-paying net gain stocks as documented by YCharts.

The Ides of March plunge in the stock market took its toll on US REITs. Only one top ten US REIT by yield from March was back in the top ten for April. However, the drop in prices in all 50 US REITs (listed by yield) did make the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more affordable for first-time investors. The rapid recovery in market prices has partially closed that window of a first-time buying opportunity.

As of June 9, this record showed all 49 top-yield REITs still live-up to the dogcatcher ideal of producing enough annual dividend from $1,000 invested to buy 1 or more shares of their stock.

To learn which of these 49 are 'safer' dividend dogs, click here in the next few days and read The Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace follow-up 'safer' REIT dividend stock summary.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 15.04% To 21.78% Net Gains By Top Ten US REITs Come June 2021

Three of ten top dividend-yielding US Real Estate Investment Trust stocks found their way into the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, our yield-based forecast for REIT stocks was certified 30% accurate by broker target forecasts.

Projections of estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2020-21 data points. Note: one-year target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades projected by brokers to June 2021 were:

Source: YCharts

Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL) made the list with a projected net gain of $217.79, based on a median of target price estimates from six analysts, plus their estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for GNL.

Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) was projected to net $206.30, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from four brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 20% greater than the market as a whole.

American Finance Trust (AFIN) netted $197.01 based on a median target price estimate from three analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 8% more than the market as a whole.

Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) was projected to net $163.33 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate's risk/volatility 32% greater than the market as a whole.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) netted $162.27 based on a median target price estimate from twelve analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate's risk/volatility 8% greater than the market as a whole.

Service Properties Trust (SVC) was projected to net $158.58 based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 97% more than the market as a whole.

Plymouth Industrial REIT (PLYM) was found to net $158.46 based on the median target price estimate from five analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for PLYM.

KKR Real Estate Finance (KREF) was projected to net $157.15, based on a median of target price estimates from six analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for KREF.

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (EARN) was projected to net $156.23, based on the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 86% more than the market as a whole.

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) was projected to net $150.35 based on dividends, plus target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 24% more than the market as a whole.

The average net gain for these ten was estimated at 17.28% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 24% greater than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alert) Analysts Predicted Three Top US Real Estate Investment Trusts To Show -3.39% To -15.75% Losses To June 9, 2021

The probable losing trades revealed by YCharts to 2021 were:

Source: YCharts.com

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) projected a loss of $33.96 based on dividend and a median of the target price estimates from five analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 79% greater than the market as a whole.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) projected a loss of $91.13 based on its dividend and the median of target price estimates from six analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 23% greater than the market as a whole.

Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. (IVR) projected a loss of $157.46 based on its dividend and the median of target price estimates from four analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 39% greater than the market as a whole.

The average net loss in dividend and price was 9.42% on $3k invested as $1k in each of these three US REIT stocks. This loss estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 47% greater than the market as a whole.

Source: youtube.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

41 Top US REITs By Target Gains

Source: YCharts

Top 49 US REITs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Yield Metrics Ranked 10 Top US REITs

Top ten US Real Estate Investment Trusts as selected 6/9/20 by yield represented two of nine constituent industries.

The first of nine mortgage REIT industry representatives in the top ten claimed the first through ninth places: Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) [1]; TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) [2]; Ready Capital (RC) [3]; Chimera Investment (CIM) [4]; Redwood Trust (RWT) [5]; Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment (CHMI) [6]; Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) [7]; Annaly Capital Management (NLY) [8]; Orchid Island Capital (ORC) [9].

Then, a lone hotel & motel realty trust placed tenth, Service Properties Trust (SVC) [10] and completed the top ten June US REITs list by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten US REITs Reported 4.24% To 13.19% Price Upsides To June 2021; (22) Eight Downsides From -1.19% To -50.27% Were Flagged By Broker Target Estimates

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Broker Targets Predicted A 28.71% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced of Top 10 US REITs To June 2021

Ten top US REITs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking. The list was not limited to stocks reporting positive total annual returns.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, ten real estate top gainers selected 6/9/20 showing the highest dividend yields represented two of nine industries constituting the REIT sector, according to YCharts.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Charted 5 Lowest-Priced Of the Top Ten Highest-Yield US REIT Dogs (23) Delivering 5.46% Vs. (24) 7.65% Net Gains by All Ten, Come June 2021

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten REIT kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 28.71% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The seventh-lowest priced of ten Real Estate top yield equities, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment (CHMI), was projected to gain 20.53% per broker target price reckoning.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-priced top yield US REITs as of June 9 were: Orchid Island Capital (ORC); Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR); Annaly Capital Management (NLY); Redwood Trust (RWT); Ready Capital (RC), with prices ranging from $4.80 to $8.85.

Five higher-priced top gain REITs were: TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX); Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment (CHMI); Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI); Chimera Investment (CIM); Service Properties Trust (SVC), whose prices ranged from $9.51 to $11.92.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your United States Exchange Real Estate Investment Trust stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same. Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts. Dog photo: youtube.com