Gold And Silver Miners Are Surging

Summary

• March was a disastrous month for precious metals miners that took a major hit when COVID went viral in the US.
• Since that time, the stocks have recovered nicely as gold and silver prices have been rising.
• The continued weak economic data coming from the US will likely contribute to continued rising precious metals prices. PM stocks should continue their surges over the next few months.

Economic Backdrop

The precious metals miners took a beating when COVID first reared its ugly head in the US in March. News of mine closures and restrictive measures throughout the mining supply chain, not to mention a disastrous fall in travel, had adversely affected mining operations. Falling asset prices, which had also spread into the precious metals sector, did not help margins for the miners that could still operate in the constrained economy.

However, the rising precious metals prices since March have buoyed the mining sector, which have begun to see sharp upward ticks across many popular mining funds. We will look at several of them to get an idea of the returns investors have had over the last couple of months.

Gold Miners

The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has recovered nicely since March, exhibiting a 2x gain from the March bottom. In addition, the index formed a bullish cup pattern over the month of June, which is indicating building momentum for another upside move.

Source: Stockcharts

Moving over to the VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) index, we see a very similar 2x+ move up with a bullish cup pattern forming over the month of June. It's as if the gold investor market is anticipating another run-up amid increasing concerns over a second wave of COVID infection breakout in the US.

The iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) has the same pattern as the previous two indexes; wouldn't you know it. One would begin to think that these funds are all seeing the exact same investment pattern emerging. We will discuss causes for that pattern more in detail further along in the article.

The exact same pattern has emerged in the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), a 2x recovery since mid-March with a bullish cup pattern formed over June. Again, this miner index looks poised for a breakout to the upside if the fundamental economic news in the US proceeds to get worse.

Gold Juniors

The pattern in the gold juniors is very similar, except that the launch higher since March was more pronounced than in the other funds. We can see that the juniors experienced a 2.5x gain from 20 to about 50, and formed the bullish cup pattern, but with a gentler and more rapid slope.

Here is the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miner Index (GDXJ). This indicates more upside momentum with less hesitation by junior gold mining investors who were piling into the various junior gold stocks.

Silver

Silver is the more volatile of the precious metals from a price perspective. While gold tends to move in comparatively gentle movements, silver's chart often exhibits more violent price movement tendencies. This is largely in part to silver's industrial usages, where price movements reflect the futures market expectations of oncoming supply and demand.

But many investors still see silver as a monetary metal, and when gold moves steadily to the upside like it has since Q4 of 2018, silver tends to follow in the same direction. Given the gold silver ratio being near all-time highs, many precious metals investors feel as though silver has much more room to run to the upside to bring that ratio back down to historic norms.

Here we will look at the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and we see that it experienced about a 2.3x move to the upside. The fund had a very shallow cup formation in June, but investors are clearly anticipating larger moves in silver to address that abnormal high in the gold silver ratio.

The silver junior mining chart is similar, but you can clearly see more volatility in the silver juniors than in the majors. Looking at the PureFunds ISE Junior Silver Index (SILJ), we see a similar 2.4x move to the upside with a shallow cup formation in June.

However, the index has just recovered to previous highs from December. The price action is also more volatile than in the majors, with a sharper downside correction in March and recovery in April through June.

Moving average indicators also show a weaker recovery of the 50 day over the 200 day, indicating there is a bit more skepticism in the staying power of the silver junior miners than there is in the majors.

Final Thoughts

Gold and silver prices heading higher are not to be unexpected given the deflation in the world economy due to COVID concerns, and the shutdowns in various local economies. Both precious metals are living up to their reputations as stores of value and safety valves as the global economy lets off some of its steam.

I believe the charts are following the confidence of the markets in the COVID economy. The drop in mining equities was likely due to liquidations and fear from an unknown adversary in the virus. The gains in the indexes, resultant from increased investment into physical precious metals and their associated funds, have pushed the miners higher as more of the supply chain begins to reopen.

Conflicting US economic data will continue to support the bullish precious metals equity charts. While June saw 4.8 million jobs created, we also have a record number of unemployed and reports of 25,000 retail closures along with a potential for 85% of independent restaurants to remain permanently closed.

The damage being done to the economy now is weakening the structure available for a recovery. Despite the encouraging jobs numbers, it is a drop in the bucket compared to the losses. Given all-time highs in sovereign and corporate debt, it does not appear we are anywhere near out of the woods as we battle the effects of a virus-ravaged economy.

Therefore, it would not surprise to see the precious metals equities continue to run to the upside. In fact, it should be expected until some serious changes in economic fundamentals begins to occur. It is not looking promising that this recovery will occur in the near future.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Comments

[aljanssens]

Gold price almost 1900 Miner AUY stuck at 5.99...earnings after hour expect to be very good..What's up?

[Robert Kientz]

The market does not believe the rally yet, so the stocks aren't moving as much. Don Durrett, who writes here, has said he thinks we may see a gold pullback before we push higher .

[Jargon]

Don’t the miners typically lead the metals both up and down?

[Michael1944]

I think $2,000 is a given, not sure if there will be profit taking this time.?

[Michael1944]

Shares Silver Trust Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NYSEARCA:SLV)

Posted by ABMN Staff on Jul 22nd, 2020 // No Comments

iShares Silver Trust logoiShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) was the target of some unusual options trading activity on Wednesday. Investors bought 1,128,676 call options on the company. This is an increase of approximately 320% compared to the typical volume of 268,732 call options.

[Robert Kientz]

People are betting silver goes higher in every way imaginable. Call options aren't a bad idea, but I would just go silver or the miners, personally.

[Jer01]

@Robert Kientz @Avi Gilburt

Subject: Movement of Gold Miners vs SPX historical view -- everything you always wanted to know and were afraid to ask.

There were multiple posts on this subject earlier in this article.

Avi, Be NICE! I already admitted : "" I am NOT an Elliot wave analyst. ""

Back on Mar31 and April 1,2020, I made a couple posts with very long term charts that covers this topic in some detail Here are some of the takeaways and links to my posts. I don't think you've ever seen such an analysis that goes back as far as this does. You really need to go to the post links and study the charts to understand the full meaning of these excerpts.

***SPX topped out in Oct 1929 -- and bottomed out around July, 1932,
The gold stock index had a small move down in 1930 and bottomed out in Sep - Oct 1930, and started moving up from there. During this time, SPX had a significant - but relatively small move down , made a corrective move up and then started moving down again in Sep - Oct, 1930. It appears it was when the SPX started making new lows in Oct 1930, that the gold mining stocks started moving up for real.
We are in a similar position to that time right now. I don't know if the market is going to make a new low here, or if gold stocks will move up here, but there are similarities.

***@Austrolib Yes, that was amazing!!! But that is not the only time in the last 100 years that gold stocks have outperformed during a bear market. If you look at my chart carefully, you can pick out four times: 1930-32, 1938, 1973-74, and the last half of the 2001 correction. Most of those were back far enough, that they are not in most peoples thoughts regarding what gold stocks do during a major market correction. There were four times when gold stocks were the place to be in a down market. Of course, that is not always the case.

***This is kind of a busy chart, but it is worth the effort. It shows all the major players in this scenario: gold, silver, gold stock index, SPX, as well as the ratio of gold stock index/SPX. The first impression is that gold stocks have underperformed the stock market dramatically, most of the times over the past 100 years. But look for the times when the ratio plot goes up rapidly. There aren't too many of them -- but four of those were during big stock market declines. And there were three extended periods where gold stocks were definitely the place to be. Conversely, there were three more extended periods, where you did not want to be near a gold stock. I think you can see from the right portion of the ratio chart, that it is highly likely that we are approaching one of those times where we would want to be in gold stocks for an extended period.

***One last thought on the XAU chart. I am NOT an Elliot wave analyst. But I sometimes like to pretend I can see the big picture in Elliot Waves -- definitely not the waves within waves. I referred earlier to the first big leg. Well, that actually was two big up legs, each followed by a multi year correction. So we have wave 1 up, that goes from 1920 to 1940 -- followed by the wave 2 down correction to 1960. This is followed by wave 3 up, from 1960 to 1982, followed by a very extended wave 4 down correction till the low in late 2015. Hopefully, this will be followed by big wave 5 up -- which would be followed by a big correction of the full move up of waves 1, 3, 5.
Note: I have reason to believe that the wave 1 actually started around 1900, but I do not have the data to corroborate that.

Here are the links to these two posts with the charts.

seekingalpha.com/...

seekingalpha.com/...

If you are a serious investor, it would be worth your while spending some time on this info.

[Jer01]

@Robert Kientz @Steve C.... @Claude-Vincent Perez

Lots of comments in this post on Steve C's prediction of a big decline in the PM market before the uptrend can resume. I made a reply to him, at that time which significantly differed from his assessment.

On 4/22/20 Steve indicated he would sell the remaining PM holdings when GDX reaches 35.75, and remain in cash till GDX corrects to his target -- he called it an excellent buying opportunity [he declined to say what the target was]. He also said that the ensuing move up would offer a run similar to what was seen in early 2016.

On 4/25/20 I responded that I thought we were already in that run up similar to 2016 and we were already halfway there. I provided a weekly chart of XAU to backup those statements and showed a trend channel to support an objective of around 197, with current price of 117.6 at that time. I also added that the current run up was similar to the 2016 run up and any corrections should be shallow and sideways, rather than deep -- too shallow to try to play them. Similar to the shallow corrections in 2016. XAU is currently 136.5, up significantly from my post on 4/25.

Here is a link to my post of 4/25/20 -- which includes my chart of XAU with trend channels..

seekingalpha.com/...

Last week on 6/29/20 I posted an update to my outlook on gold mining stocks. I included both weekly and daily charts with upside objectives and thoughts on corrections. My opinion was/is still bullish. Here is a link to that post.

seekingalpha.com/...

Here is an update of the XAU weekly chart with today's action.

https://prnt.sc/tf1x99

Compare the current run up to the run up in early 2016. Still lots of similarities! It looks very bullish, on its way up to the objective I set on 4/25/20. It is fast approaching the 3/4 quartile line in the trend channel, hopefully on its way up to the top of the channel. If it reaches there, I would expect a significant correction from there.

Here is a longer term view of it.

https://prnt.sc/tf1zyt

Note the top of the long term down trend channel. That will be important as we approach the top of the up trend channel.

[Michael1944]

I just ignore the market, January my SLV 14's expire,
Reset, Reload, Wait.

[SilverBullit]

Couple Portfolio updates...
I sold my GBTC for a quick 8% profit this morning. Also added to NVDA short at 403, SE at 125 and DOCU at 205. Also added to SOXS at 4.94. I agree with @steve C... that the upside in the miners (GDX) is very limited at this point and I am short term bearish.

[lynn52nav]

Steve C,
Read your update today thru another article and glad to read your comments as your calls have been right on. Have been trimming and taking profits and bought some puts as the run has gotten long in the tooth on a short term basis as like you I am bullish long term. Glad for all the information you provide and advise all out there to pay attention to what he says. Thanks again and good luck to all.

[Michael1944]

Bullish, SELL a Covered Call and buy some PUTS.

[moss rock]

gold miner stocks will very nicely hedge your portfoilo. I checked all commodity prices and there was inflation. copper.. silver.. gold..

[nickre321]

I couldn't agree more. The recovery is still in the early stages. This is going to take years to fix. We are looking at a 2-3 year time frame at best. We haven't even seen the affects of the corporate balance sheets getting blown up in Q2 and Q3 yet. I expect many more layoffs to occur in the fall.

[Robert Kientz]

@nickre321

As Lior Gantz pointed out in my recent interview with him, the economy will hinge on a second wave of COVID affecting government policies (local, state, and federal) towards the economy. We also have the election coming up which looks to be a very contentious one.

The economic data that comes out between now and November will have a huge affect on the vote, and the repercussions of that vote will affect the economy for the next 4 years. So much uncertainty at the moment in which new people are finding reasons to invest in the precious metals.

[aljanssens]

...and the economy was already in recession in February, no?

[Hughie Thomason]

Your last paragraph says it well (so too do the others).  Nice work.

I would also add that any changing economic fundamentals are going to be on the bad side. The cleansing of the malinvestments from years, and now more months, of ZIRP are way overdo. The bubbles are not going to reinflate well.

[Robert Kientz]

Thanks Hughie. I too believe we are nearing a point at which the system has to "cleanse" itself. Which is more reason to position accordingly.

[Avi Gilburt]

This quote is not only unsupported by market history, it presents an outright fallacy which superficial analysts regurgitate in a failed attempt to explain what they do not understand:

"The continued weak economic data coming from the US will likely contribute to continued rising precious metals prices. PM stocks should continue their surges over the next few months."

Believing that economics drives metals prices is like believing the earth is flat. It is an old fallacy which is completely unsupported by the facts of history.

[Robert Kientz]

Hi Avi,

I had missed you, thanks for commenting. I believe there is decades of data that supports weak economic data will drive people to precious metals.

If you could get everyone to believe your theories that markets are only driven on technical analysis and momentum, you may have a point. But the fact that there are legions of us out there, who attend conferences, write stories, and invest in the space based upon economic fundamentals at the very least points to the fact that there are many different perspectives, and investment strategies, for the PM market.

Cheers

[Avi Gilburt]

Oh, yes. I know there are legions of you guys who "attend conferences, write stories, and invest in the space based upon economic fundamentals" . . . AND YOU GUYS ARE THE ONES WHO TOOK A MAJOR HIT FROM 2011-15.

I mean, silver dropping 75% despite its fundamentals remaining positive . . . yet, you can still claim that this is a worthwhile endeavor?

“Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in.” Isaac Asimov

Moreover, the problem with your "belief" that there is data to support metals rising during economic weakness is just that, a BELIEF. You choose to ignore all the other decades of data which show the exact opposite. This destroy's your entire premise, and makes your perspective - at best - a 50/50 proposition. I do not invest based upon those odds.

[Robert Kientz]

Avi, you are killing yourself here. I am not sure if you are hung over from the 4th, but you are not doing yourself any favors lobbing me up softballs.

Wait, did gold not reach an all time high after the last recession? Yes it took off after the recession hit, and kept going I might add, for two years after.

It took me all of ten seconds on google to find a Forbes article comparing gold to stocks during the last recession.

www.forbes.com/...

Here is an analysis by Kitco going back to 1970.
www.kitco.com/...

And a quote:

"The yellow metal generally performed better than stocks during recessions, standing out as having the best combination of return and risk"

[Mundinger]

Nice article, very informative, and you would have more credibility if you owned some of the positions you commented on

[Robert Kientz]

@Mundinger

Thank you for your comments.

I do track the indexes as a way to gauge sentiment in the sector, but I typically don't invest in them. I do take individual positions and trade in and out of the stocks. My strategy on physical is much different - I have been that for the long haul and won't change until they reach a bubble, which is some ways away from our current position.

[IndioBravo]

If the author owns some or all the stocks mentioned, people will say that he wants to manipulate markets for his own benefit.

[Robert Kientz]

It is a no win situation, lol.

[Jargon]

What about industrial metals?
Will they tag along for the ride?

[cccraig20]

@Jargon check our COPPER

[Robert Kientz]

Typically investment comes into the resources (from a miner perspective) when gold does well. So I do expect a rising gold market to drive money into the resource sector. But I think gold and silver will do better than the base metals should we continue to experience a deflationary environment.

[Steve C....]

"The exact same pattern has emerged in the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), a 2x recovery since mid-March with a bullish cup pattern formed over June."
"Therefore, it would not surprise to see the precious metals equities continue to run to the upside. In fact, it should be expected until some serious changes in economic fundamentals begins to occur."

I do not share the authors conviction on mining equities in the near term. Although in terms of betting ones own money we both seem to be in agreement not to have positions currently in mining equity ETF's.

I haven't commented in a while, and many people are requesting my thoughts on the miners. As my followers know, my friends and family and I went long mining stocks on March 16th and scaled out after gains of over 100%. We left a little on the table, and that is fine with me. Right now my indicators are once again at the extremes I saw in August of 2016 when I exited GDX stocks when the index was still above 31. The number of stocks on bullish patterns is at 100%. This is dead bugs territory and not a reading where you get to keep recent gains. My sentiment spread indicator is still warning a correction is needed to clear excessive exuberance. Retail sentiment in GOLD remains elevated. Peak momentum occurred as is typical in wave iii in GOLD back on September 2nd in 2019. And wave 'v' of 1 of (3) up peaked at 1765.35. Then wave 'a' of 2 of (3) bottomed at 1670.74 and we are still in a 'b' wave of 2 down. Yes, 'b' waves can thrust above a wave 1 peak. I am still anticipating a 'c' wave down to complete wave 2 of (3). I see the normal momentum structure of a completing move. In cycles in many assets recently, I have noticed that 80% of the move often happens in the last 20% of the cycle so that is important to keep in mind, if one thinks miners are going to the moon right now.

Now, I always ask the question, What if I am wrong? I'll be wrong if GOLD takes out 1827 in the near term. That would indicate that wave 3 of (3) was already underway. In that case, I would expect it to accelerate upward well above 2000 this year. Is it probable? NO. Possible, yes, but its like betting on a very out of the money option. Looking at the daily chart of GDX, a move above 37.49 would invalidate my view that we are in a wave 2 of (3). The MACD is showing negative divergence going back to the 34.74 peak in late April. If my view of GDX is correct then a wave iii of A to the downside should begin next week.

Where bullish optimism is causing others to see multiple cup and handle formations on various mining ETF's I still see wave 2's of an A move of an ABC to the downside. The extremes on my indicators, the sentiment patterns, wave structure, expected cycle low timing late summer support that view as most probable. And I always go with what is most probable.

[Claude-Vincent Perez]

I recalled you made many bad calls and went quiet just ike many others that write or post articles (thinking about Avi Gilburt for ex) on this platform or social media, You obviously dismiss fundamentals (e.g. macro picture) by only focusing on very dubious technical analysis that many swear by and some others (I can name you a lot of famous investors like Bill Fleckenstein) view it as just a tool. There are a lot of "technicians" out there that have called a major downside in gold (and still do since gold breached the $1370-1400) for months now disregarding what the FED is doing to the economy and the stock markets.

Is it that hard to understand that as the FED keeps its current path of money printing, it is also good for gold? Like many others, you seems to think that the FED can only do good for the stock market with zero consequences (like higher gold price and eventually inflation). So obviously gold has to correct because you know, only "dead gold bugs" can buy gold stocks while they are still 60-80% down from their peak and they have clean B/S and strong cash flows at current prices for a lot of them! And do not get me started on the debt binge and the fiscal policies... There is one technician that is constantly right about precious metals and gold, it's MSA. And they do not share your view! That is not to say that you may be right in the ST. I think trading the ST movements of gold stocks is risky given how fast they can appreciate on a any given day. Plus they can go up big while gold is down... If one is bullish MT/LT in gold and gold stocks, build a core and maybe trade around it but do not get completely out hoping for a correction because of some "magical waves" on a chart may tell you to.

Anyway sorry if i am picking on you here but i see so many of those posts (and zero accountability) and it was just time for me to rant a little.

[Sorgenfrei]

From Rambus (public):
It is time to review the strategic big picture; we are now over 4 years into the bull market in the gold stocks. It began in Jan 2016 with an across the board vertical 7 month 150% rally propelling all PM sectors. The market then went on to sort out the winners and losers over the next 2 years in a protracted painful consolidation. This three year event may be classified as Phase I. This consolidation ended in September 2018 and the next leg-up began and is still ongoing today. The market is now in early stage Phase II prior to the point of recognition (POR), the public still hasn’t recognized the bull market. The POR however, appears to be fast approaching as the market’s steam boiler has now gotten up a full head of steam and is about to unleash its power and propel the bull upward. This is the “Impulse Move” that Rambus has been chronicling.

The bull is now maturing to the point that it is about to express the raw power of a primary bull market. Bull markets surprise to the upside and Wall Street is about to be shocked and awed over the next 6-12 months in a potent display of the breadth and rise of a bull market.
rambus1.com/...

Long $SAND
Best regards

[Steve C....]

Claude,

You've followed me a long time. And I rarely respond to critiques of my calls on the miners. So, let me give links to my calls at almost all of the major cycle lows publicly stated here on SA, and most the peaks. And tell me who, FOR FREE, has done better anywhere on this site. Including most of the paid services on miners.

stockcharts.com/...

seekingalpha.com/...

So calling the low in September 2018 was a bad call?

seekingalpha.com/...

So going entirely to cash the morning of August 15, 2016 while GDX was still close to 31 was a bad call? When my indicators looked like they do right now, and someone else ranted on me then about fundamentals and leaving money on the table? Show me how you could have made these calls on fundamentals and what the FED is doing?

seekingalpha.com/...

So cycling into long positions in late December 2017 when GDX was close to its 19.21 weekly low in stocks like SAND which I sold on August 15, 2016 at 6.51 and bought back close to its 3.20 low in December of 2017, after which it peaked at 5.64 a couple months latter was a bed call?

seekingalpha.com/...

Or suggesting when GDX peaked at 23.70 on Feb 23rd 2019, that I was hedging or closing positions and projected then a cycle low of consequence would occur in late May 2019.

seekingalpha.com/...

So on May 19th, 2019 when I suggested the risk of loss was low for cycling into long positions and SILJ had just hit a low of 7.21 (not far from its ultimate low of 6.76) soon to essentially double into my next sell area, and GDX was around 20.50. Perhaps that was a bed call?

seekingalpha.com/...

And my system calling a bottom in on May 30th, 2019, when GDX just started to move off its bottoming area. Was that a bed call?

seekingalpha.com/...

And I suppose getting my friends and family and my followers out one day after the peak in September of 2019, when SIL tagged 11.56 and GDX tagged 30.96 was a bad call? Perhaps you could criticize me for suggesting they stay in cash as I did until March 16th 2020 when we went long again, the DAY OF THE LOW. And my friend Rick, who put 1/3rd of his funds in CDE my number one rubber band stock right about 2.00 and sold it in the 4.50 area was a bad call. Yes, it went higher to 6.00. But the gains were so extreme from my entry point and risk of loss was increasing and I wanted to be prudent with their money. For many the gains were life changing, and I wanted those funds to be cashed out. So, I started cycling out in 25% increments after stunning gains off those lows to be in cash a little early weeks ago. Perhaps thats what you meant by bad calls. I will not apologize for leaving money on the table in an environment of increasing risk of loss.

[ftakeshi]

@robert Kientz, very good article thank you. Which currency is gold priced ? USD? EUR ? JPY ? your bullish trend analysis is based on Gold x dollar ? Gold x eur ? i have position in Gold x BRL. What do you think ?

[Robert Kientz]

These charts are published in USD.

[Michael1944]

Australia,Canada, safe countries with big P.M Companies,a Commodity Currency.
US $ is 35% stronger against $CDN,this will change,not that long ago that the $CDN was a 10% premium against $U.S.

[BooBooGao]

They're not surging. I bought and sold a Chinese stock up 17% in two trading days.. that's surging.

[cccraig20]

@BooBooGao Yes.....it is. True

[aeiouandxyz]

@cccraig20 there are a few gold stocks that are up 30-40% in a week and some even more..

[Michael1944]

How?

[Nvent19]

When the broader markets tanked in late March - the miner stocks also tanked but recovered very quickly- I wonder if there is another correction in the broad market coming up - if that happens will mining stocks have a deep correction or a minor correction?

[Hughie Thomason]

@Nvent19 nobody knows. The chances are less likely since the recent crash because the persons behind the take down surely loaded up on the metals and miners.

[Robert Kientz]

@Nvent19

This is typical behavior when the broad market crashes. The PM miners follow, but where economic data is negative, money will flow back to the miners and bid them up. Of course PM investors are often fickle ...

[Nvent19]

@Robert Kientz good to know what to expect when and if the broader market declines - I’m always looking for the best entry into PM stocks of course

[Robert Kientz]

For those interested, I am running a virtual Precious Metals Summit conference on August 6-7th. Registration is free at goldsilverpros.com/... . See you there!

[hulubalang]

The impulse spike down in March was probably the last great buying opportunity we will see for many years. All the miners I bought in March have at least doubled, several have tripled.

[Robert Kientz]

Let's hope you are right.

[kevinconnolly]

My money is on WPM----------really positioned nicely------got there hands in both gold and silver!!

[Mike 007]

thanks for your works here Robert,nice article.
Yes its a bullish pattern, and some minor corrections will lie ahead, especially in silver juniors. The Covid numbers in the US are skyrocketing right now, bad economic data will follow. I guess many of that is already priced-in. What will be unclear how much this will bring the USD index down?! I can see an reverse diamond formation in the USD index, which isnt complete yet......such formations to detect is very hard before they nearly finished and confirmed.....i can see such reverse formations also in Silver/Platinum/Euro....just to break up-in opposite directions........
i expect an complete Formation in August 2020 and an downward move of USD index from now 97 to 94 for confirmation.....and first target of 83 until jan 2021......
Where all the precious metals/miners will move in the next months will totally depend on the next move of the USD index.
In early 2021 earliest time any vaccine can be "successfully" developed......
the next economic data of the US ecomony will be crucient......
a much bigger diamond formation can be drawn on the usd index from Jan 2015, with the same supposed breakdown 94 and target around 80.
But there is an cross resistance in the way between at 93...so expect an major correction of the miners at end of this year. At "xmas" is a perfect "time" to tout a super vaccine is "on the way".

[Robert Kientz]

Welcome on the article.

The main reason for COVID spikes is they are testing 6x the number of people as they were, so you are going to find more infected. I don't believe the percent infected has changed much.

[Mike 007]

@Robert Kientz you might be right, actually as the virus dont care "tested numbers" a clue of percentage infections can be the rate of daily death people (with 2 weeks delay). Texas , Florida, California is lately rising. Some staates are over the curve and looking much better. So all in all it really looks the worst is over, despite more "infection numbers".

[Tulips_1637]

@Robert Kientz for real??? there are more people to test cause more people are sick and think they have it, so they show up at the free test site. my god.. just admit there is a virus here..we didnt create it, so why hide from facts?? I wish u you do actual analysis on gold silver miners rather than summarize a few popular charts....not much new here.. fyi— the 2x u cite is because gdx all got hit with auto sells over 3 days and dropped 50% in two days.. and then all the 3x leveraged funds went to 2x.. hhmmmm doesnt sound like fundamentals to me