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And The COVID-19 Vaccine Winner Is: 'BioNTech SE'

Aug. 03, 2020 2:30 AM ETBioNTech SE (BNTX)894 Comments
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
Sarel Oberholster


  • The BioNTech/Pfizer team has launched its Phase 2/3 clinical trial in the USA and internationally for its COVID-19 vaccine on July 27, 2020, after excellent Phase 1/2 clinical trial results.
  • It has also pre-sold up to 750 million doses of the vaccine to the governments of the USA, Japan and the UK.
  • The BioNTech/Pfizer team has substantial and probably unbeatable competitive and outright advantages over all its competitors.
  • I have a target price of around $200 for BioNTech by the end of 2020 but with FDA approval potentially in October 2020, the target price may realize earlier.


Source of the BioNTech graphic: Wikipedia.

BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) is a Germany-based biotechnology company which has teamed up with Pfizer (PFE) to bring a COVID-19 vaccine to the market. There are no market or economic precedents for this pandemic or for how to estimate a value for a successful COVID-19 vaccine, or how to estimate the value of a company who succeeds at a vaccine. Following an approach to assess development progress, prospects for success, commercial positioning and competitive advantages, I will do indicative calculations to reach a success-based value for BioNTech shares.

BioNTech was founded in 2008 on the understanding that every cancer patient’s tumor is unique and therefore each patient’s treatment should be individualized. From our roots in Mainz, Germany, we are driven to become the leading global biotechnology company for individualized cancer medicine.”

The research done by BioNTech in collaboration with Pfizer to develop mRNA-based vaccines for the prevention of influenza was a perfect fit for both parties to initiate a new collaboration on COVID-19 when the opportunity presented.

BioNTech and Pfizer announced their COVID-19 vaccine collaboration on March 17, 2020, and commented as follows:

The collaboration aims to accelerate development of BioNTech’s potential first-in-class COVID-19 mRNA vaccine program, BNT162, which is expected to enter clinical testing by the end of April 2020.”

The collaboration between BioNTech and Pfizer excludes China as BioNTech had already signed a strategic alliance deal with Fosun Pharma on March 16, 2020, for its COVID-19 vaccine.

BioNTech received regulatory approval from German authority Paul-Ehrlich-Institut to commence the first clinical trial of COVID-19 vaccine candidates on April 22, 2020, and announced on April 29, 2020, that they have completed dosing for the first cohort of Phase 1/2 trial of COVID-19 vaccine candidates in Germany. The efficiency and professionalism of the BioNTech/Pfizer team are

This article was written by

Sarel Oberholster profile picture
My retail trader book series, The Paranoid Trader and The BIG FISH Trader, is now available on Amazon. It is a strategy guide for Retail Traders/Investors to motivate them to become profitable Traders/Investors and then remain profitable. Equally important to experienced Retail Traders/Investors, as it reinforces winning trading strategies. I seek understanding in everything but economics, markets and investing are where my mind is most at ease. In this I am forever doing research in my quest for answers. I do view the world from many different angles. Understanding economic behavioral patterns are important to me. Strategic investing over the medium to longer term is predominantly my focus when I contemplate my research or philosophies. I have a compulsion to express my thoughts in ordered form and my essays are the result of such expressions. I'm an economist by training, a financial engineer by talent, a banker by profession, a trader by interest and a father by chance.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long BNTX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (894)

Sarel Oberholster profile picture
I will be doing a new evaluation of Biontech after the 9 Aug results and update. I also need to do the evaluation of Novavax to see the extent to which Novavax would impact the competitive environment after the Novavax earnings call of 5 Aug. I'll be working on both during August. I'll have a bit more time as my book which has been a work in progress for a while has been published on Amazon.

This is the theme:
Have you ever been perplexed as a Retail Trader or Retail Investor about the disconnect between economic fundamentals and the share price of a company or asset? Have you sold your assets or shares as a Retail Trader in despair because the price just keeps falling just to see the price bottoming a week or two later and proceed to make new all time highs soon after, actually proving your investment thesis right, yet you still ended with a loss? Do you want to know why?
You need to become a Paranoid Trader. I explain in my new book why you need to be a Paranoid Trader and how to become a Paranoid Trader. Get it on Amazon.
The Paranoid Trader: An unapologetic strategy guide to retail trading.

Do not mess with nonsense

After the first quarter results

BNTX will be between $ 200-250

The one who checks every day

So let's sell

This is not a stock for him
BullMaker profile picture
Any thoughts on the dramatic fall from 135 to 125 on the day (Friday) BioNTech cleared by FDA ?

It’s counter intuitive.

Would you not think it should be heading for a dramatic rise in lieu of a dramatic fall ?
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
@BullMaker I have replied to you on my latest article. I do not try and explain every move in the market and Biontech often moves counter intuitive but it is building a very satisfactory trend.
BullMaker profile picture
@Sarel Oberholster any thoughts on

Moderna as compared to BioNTech ?

US just added 100 Million more Moderna vaccines to its order.

I’m curious, this time next year, what are we looking at sales wise between the two.
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
@BullMaker its been answered in the comments below but I did not do a full research review of Moderna so its best to read the analysts who cover Moderna for Moderna questions.
@Sarel Oberholster: Came back to this original analysis to recognize that you called it back in August. There will be other winners down the pipe but you predicted back then that BNTX would succeed and would get there first. Credit to where credit is due. Cheers!
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
Thank you @Enw0717 and everybody who participated here, it was at times a wild ride.
BullMaker profile picture
@Sarel Oberholster say what’s the story here.

On the day BioNTech is given a full green light GO by the FDA

It heads from 135 to 125.

It’s counter intuitive.

Would you not think it should be heading even higher instead of sharply lower ?
Shergar58 profile picture
Congratulations to the headline.

Biontech is first.

Sarel Oberholster profile picture
Thanks @Shergar58 👌😁
BullMaker profile picture
@Sarel Oberholster I got out of Moderna

Because of its super wild fluctuations

Almost mirroring bitcoin in volatility.

Then on day of the big FDA go BiG Green light

The stock sinks 10 points

Instead of the other way around.

I woke up and was shocked to see it fall so rapidly and so hard.

Especially with the FDA Green lighting it.

What’s going on here ?
27717033 profile picture

If you can't get used to the swings, this isn't a stock for you. BNTX has been manipulated daily for months. If you don't have confidence on the path, profits, and general business plan it is a tough one to ride.
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
I hope we can continue the conversation about Biontech on my new article published just now by SA - see you there :-)


BioNTech SE: Spectacular Success Still Extremely Undervalued
Shergar58 profile picture
Pfizer is negotiating vaccine delivery with Brazil in early 2021

3:50 a.m.: According to Pfizer, Brazil is negotiating the delivery of the vaccine developed with Biontech in the first quarter of 2021. The agent will be sold at three different prices, said Pfizer's Brazil boss Carlos Murillo. A distinction is made between solvent countries, middle-income countries like Brazil and countries with little financial means.

So far, Brazil has a contract with AstraZeneca for their vaccine. The South American country is one of the worst hit by the coronavirus crisis worldwide.

@Shergar58: Yes indeed. I wrote it on a post here about a week ago. I have worked for years as a political analyst and Brazil is one of the countries I have generally covered (and lived in for a couple of years). The political decision has been made especially to counter the Chinese vaccine being tested there and backed by the challeneger (Governor of Sao Paulo) to the current president. It is a political war and this government made a decision to go with BNTX (which is also running a large trial in Brazil). It is a matter of reaching a price deal (out of my scope) but I was sure that the negotiations were taking place. My educated guess is that it will get done. There are local elections on Sunday and the results are important for this president that looks to solidify his base for the presidential election run in two years. Getting the right vaccine is at the center of his strategy, and BNTX delivered before AZN (Brazil has a deal with them as well) and the local elections, thus they will come up with the money for the vaccine, gievn the high infection rates.

"Why did the German biotech stock sink? It's tempting for investors to take profits off the table with a sharp, quick gain like that. The best thing for long-term investors to do when a stock they own tumbles due to others taking profits is... absolutely nothing. Selling too soon is oftentimes the worst mistake an investor can make."

"BioNTech's growth prospects remain very good even after its huge gains this week. Assuming BNT162b2 wins Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in the U.S. and approvals in other major countries, BioNTech and Pfizer are poised to make billions of dollars from the COVID-19 vaccine."
BioNTech chief rejects Trump claim it delayed Covid vaccine news

Sarel Oberholster profile picture
I have burned the midnight oil and completed my Biontech predictive model based upon the abridged Income Statement used in the Q3 update. The model calculates the abridged Income Statement through to 2023 and does annual Target Prices based upon the Revenue and Income results generated. I have also completed the next SA article which will deal with the predictive model and target prices and have set a new Target Price for Biontech to realize by Q1 next year. The article has been uploaded to SA for editing and approval and as usual it is it is their prerogative to approve or not. I'll post a link as soon as the article is available. I have uploaded the Biontech predictive model to a purpose created Google Drive account where it will be available for download by anyone with a link in the article.
Shergar58 profile picture
Classification: Confirmed Buy

Target Price: Increased to $ 126 (98)

Closing price previous trading day: + 7.6% to $ 112.76


The analysts at Berenberg have updated their calculation model for Biontech following the latest good news. The positive study results made BNT162 a highly competitive vaccine against the coronavirus and indicated great commercial success. With mRNA technology, Biontech is on a promising course with regard to the treatment of several cancers.

Contact the author: maerkte.de@dowjones.com

DJG / bst / cln

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 11, 2020 8:49 AM ET (13:49 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Source: Dow Jones 11/11/2020 14:49
27717033 profile picture
BNTX, although in the news, is pretty much an unknown to investors. They lump it with Pfizer and I think Pfizer's CEO's stock trade stink has stunk up BNTX as well. It will be forgotten on EUA, but until then, retail will be chasing the soup du jour, which at this point is MDNA.
Scientist behind BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine says it can end pandemic

Pfizer coronavirus vaccine expected to protect patients for a year: BioNTech founder

Shergar58 profile picture
German High Tech Logistic is preparing to ship millions of frozen vaccination doses every day.


Sorry, only in german language
China authorizes BioNTech-Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine testing

UK Patients Could Receive Coronavirus Vaccine in Mid-December, Says BioNTech Co-Founder

Data on experimental COVID-19 vaccine very encouraging - German institute

Biontech SeBiontech Se


10:46 am

BERLIN, Nov 12 - Preliminary data from Pfizer

PFE.N and its German partner Biontech 22UAy.DE on their

experimental COVID-19 vaccine are very encouraging, the head of

Germany's Robert Koch institute for infectious diseases (RKI),

Lothar Wieler, said on Thursday.

(Reporting by Thomas Seythal and Sabine Siebold)

((berlin.newsroom(at)thomsonreuters.com; +49 30 2201 33599;))
I've noticed that PFE/BNTX have been understating their production capacity since efficacy data was made public. Must be strategy?
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