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MicroVision Has Risen Over 1000% On Delusional Retail Investor Dreams - $0.15 Price Target

Aug. 03, 2020 10:00 AM ETMicroVision, Inc. (MVIS)132 Comments
White Diamond Research profile picture
White Diamond Research


  • MicroVision’s (MVIS) business hasn’t fundamentally changed since it was trading at $0.20 through most of March and April.
  • MVIS’ own financial advisor, a Craig-Hallum analyst, to this day hasn’t changed his 25-cent price target on the stock.
  • Microsoft buyout rumors caused the initial rally, but MVIS' financial advisor that is helping to look for an acquirer, said the Microsoft rumors don’t make sense.
  • MVIS' own investor relations rep told us the stock rally is from retail investors, not tech investors or "smart money".
  • MVIS’ will report earnings on 8/5/20, and we believe there won't be any new bullish updates.

(Editors Note: This article was updated following publication. Originally, it was stated that MVIS sold Intellectual Property related to the deal in which one of its customers took over production of a component. However, the Microvision stated in their Q1 earnings call specifically that no intellectual property was sold, so the original article statement has been amended.)

Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) develops PicoP scanning technology to create high-resolution miniature projection, and three-dimensional sensing and image capture solutions in the US and Asia. The company has been trying to develop and commercialize this technology for many years, almost since its inception in 1993, with no luck. Over the past few years it has desperately tried to transition its use for different types of products such as:

  • Interactive and non-interactive pico projection;
  • 3D LiDAR sensing for consumer electronics, automotive collision avoidance;
  • and Augmented/Virtual Reality (AR/VR).

However, it has not made progress in any of these areas, and there has been little to no interest by major technology companies. We liken MVIS to a biotech with only one drug that hasn’t worked, yet the company keeps trying to repurpose the drug for different diseases to try and keep investors interested.

On this same topic of MicroVision’s laser beam scan failures:

From a technology blog on 5/5/20:

From 2007 to 2011, I was competing with Microvision working on Pico Projectors as CTO of the LCOS company Syndiant. While at Syndiant, I did some in-depth technical studies of laser beam scanning. I learned that laser beam scanning is one of those concepts that looks and seems simple until you understand it. There must have been over 20 significant companies, including no less than Samsung and Sony, that put serious efforts into laser beam scanning that all failed to make a successful commercial product. Every year or two, Microvision gets an end customer, including Sony and Pioneer, as

This article was written by

White Diamond Research profile picture
We provide deep research and valuable information on small cap stocks to hedge funds and high net worth individuals. We specialize in the technology and healthcare sectors. We have an over 80% success rate, see our reports at whitediamondresearch.com. See the 3rd party verified return on each of our bearish reports over the last 24 months at: https://breakoutpoint.com/as-summary/white-diamond-gvmtg/To inquire about becoming a premium subscriber, send a PM here or email us at research@whitediamondresearch.com.Follow us on twitter @whiteresearch.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are short MVIS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (132)

bcindc profile picture
Why so bearish...? Up 10,000% off the 2020 March low. Up 950% off the 2020 Nov low. Up 135% since Feb 1. Up 60% since March 1. Up 44% since April 1. The Weekly chart shows BUY mode since May 18th of 2020 with 1800% gains since then. Price clearly riding the 20EMA higher with this current micro correction hitting a low of $13.69 with $12.88 being support. Below $12.07 and I'm out. I suppose the cries about "retail investor dreams" will grow even louder if MVIS is above $40 later this summer :) Just another trade from the amazing team at EWT www.elliottwavetrader.net My chart (not an analyst) www.tradingview.com/...
I see people like to triple down on their stupidity.

A fool and his money are lucky enough to get together in the first place I guess
This stock is as amazing as it gets. If its total vaporware then it will have a long list of Reddit and Robinhood tombstones. The reversal is coming soon
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
@Deepvalueattacker Not before Luminar. ;-) Microvision remains significantly undervalued.
MVIS was the first Game Stop. we can all see this. Its someone like White Diamond that has to bring more color and research to wake the markets up or be wiped off the face of the earth. I think 1.6 billion with no cash and no sales is way overbought. You need 150m in revs in 12 months to support his market cap and its not happening.
Pete I profile picture
Short position looking grim? Any stock that does well now and you just toss the GameStop card onto the table? Oh look you played that same card a week ago. Maybe you need to shuffle better.
Richard X Roe profile picture
@Pete I Short position is as good as before. The company is worth zero - it has no products, no products in development, no cash revenues, and no business. All it has is two videos. When it declares bankruptcy, the stock will shoot to $100.
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
@Deepvalueattacker What do you think about $10 billion company valuation and no revenue like Luminar?

$150 million in sales is not a problem: 3 million units of lidar sensors at $50 each.
MVIS was the first GME from Reddit. No one noticed it because MVIS sold 50 million shares via an ATM. These retails Reddits might all come crashing down on this one. CEO is being given a 1.1 billion mkt cap for what?!
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
@Deepvalueattacker Best-in-class and first-to-market automotive LiDAR and smart glasses light engine. Outperforms Luminar and all competitors.
@High Tech Stock Review www.luminartech.com/...

You are kidding us, right? Luminar has multiple partners for starters. Who does MVIS partner with? The current stock price is all hype and, yeah, maybe even related to GameStop. 1/6th of their shares are shorted. That ought to tell us something.
Richard X Roe profile picture
@High Tech Stock Review The automotive LIDAR and smart glasses light engine are fake - they are just CGI videos targeting clueless investors. The company has no product, no cash revenues, and no business. While the company did not file for bankruptcy last year (thanks to the reddit crowd), it will probably do so this year, when it becomes clear that it all has been a hoax.
Pete I profile picture
God love this Hindenburg Research fellow, just blew past 8 bucks a share. :)
Richard X Roe profile picture
@Pete I Just wait when Microvision files for Chapter 11 - the stock will go to $100! That's what passes for investing these days.
If you are short – I feel your pain. If you are long – I trust you sold already enough shares to cover your cost and with the rest of them just sitting back and enjoying the show… like I do.
Richard X Roe profile picture
@mbkeng Don't worry - you will be tempted to get in again, when the stock goes to $100 (in Chapter 11).
@White Diamond Research any update given the recent share price increase? Do you think this is connected to the crazyness in the two SPAC transactions of Luminar and Velodyne? Thanks!
White Diamond Research profile picture
Fundamentally nothing has changed as far as I know with MVIS. Still the same buyout rumors. Still the same worthless tech that they had when the stock was trading for 20c earlier this year. We're just in an increasingly more bullish market. Retail speculators rule the roost right now. We're a fundamental research shop, but trading timing is still by far the most important thing even for fundamental short sellers.
Thank you for your feedback. Yeah, I agree with the fundamental (& rational view). But still, it is pretty crazy to read all these unfounded rumours and speculation about which multi-billion companies are interested in MVIS (TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, Ford etc) and we are very certain it is not true. But so many people buy into this. How far can this mania go...?
Pete I profile picture
I'd say the craziness can get to at least $7.00 a share as I post this! :)
Same old story since 2006. Company whips loser fanboy shareholders into a frenzy and, when it eventually transpires the tech had no chance in the first place, they come up with a new shiny story and the cycle is repeated.

How many times are they going to get away with dressing up onesy-twosey engineering sample sales as “strong customer funnel” and how many times can they keep pulling the stunt of latching onto the latest trend eg picoprojection, lidar, AR, to legitimize their hapless efforts at developing a fundamentally flawed technology?
Richard X Roe profile picture
@joozy_deetels The nice thing is that they think they can rinse and repeat. For example, the AR thing (aka Nomad) is now getting a second life under the new CEO. Right? Right?
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
Compare sizes. Now only 4 g weight.
Richard X Roe profile picture
@High Tech Stock Review 4 g weight? Naah, a fictional Unity-generated video targeting clueless investors weights 0 gram. You seem to have forgotten the disclaimer at the end of that video. What did it say? It said that the "module" capabilities are only "expected," and that the module is not commercially available. That translates into plain English as "BANKRUPTCY aka Chapter 11 by the end of the year."
Chris Lau profile picture
Dodged a bullet passing on $MVIS. Its history from years ago unchanged. Getting caught up on the rally ahead of earnings and that "report" of acquisition fooled many.

White Diamond Research profile picture
We all learned a valuable lesson today. MVIS went to $3 today on the CEO talking to Dealreporter, now it's down to $1.70 as I write this, for a drop of $1.30. Within one year, it will drop another $1.55 to $0.15. Read this article now with a clear mind, it is 100% true, look deep into the white diamond, the prophecy will be fulfilled.
Richard X Roe profile picture
@White Diamond Research NO way this will last a year, as the preliminary proxy mentions bankruptcy.
White Diamond Research profile picture
Right, that's if they don't get authorization to sell shares. If shareholders do vote for that, then the company can last longer. But it could be a few months, I just said sometime within one year it will hit 15 cents.
Bought at 2.15 on Friday and sold at 2.70 today. Might have been dumb enough to keep this til tomorrow if not for this article. Thank You.
Chris Lau profile picture
DIY triple traders* pitched $MVIS on the marketplace. Well done for them, as the stock surged again today on a "inbound deal."

I don't see it happening. Still, good on those who bought the stock for less than a buck.

*see SA instablog
Richard X Roe profile picture
Why would cash-strapped Microvision produce and publish these promotional videos about fake LIDAR and fake Smart Glasses now with that disclaimer at the end? To pump up the stock price, of course! This is management way of telling you that there WILL BE NO ACQUISITION, because there is zero interest in Microvision technology. The reasoning is very simple: If you want to sell something, and it does not sell for months, you lower the price, not pump to increase it!

Don't say you got fooled!
Dude you sound super desperate lol. These videos were published prior to May 5 because patent 10643820 (granted May 5, 2020) is not included in the list, in fact none after the April 7 patent are on the video including the two new patents granted last month. But if you know anything about video/animation design and marketing materials you know they were started way before that, almost certainly when SS took over as CEO in February and the sell decision was made. These were obviously concept videos used to show buyers, not something purporting a real product they currently have. The fact that they are releasing them now to the public, on YouTube no less, means that they don't need them for that purpose anymore.
Richard X Roe profile picture
@stipple Dude, youtube shows the videos were published TODAY. Just before the CEO's statement to DealReporter.

Those patents you mention are all irrelevant. Solid-state MEMS-based LIDAR and smart glasses engines are commodities - Bosch, STM and numerous Asian companies make them cheaply.

Here is your problem: if the company was indeed being sold, why make two videos, for two different segments? Why not make one video? For example, if a buyer is interested in Microvision's automotive work (which no one is, unless Microvision is under Chapter 11, by the way), what is Microvision going to do with the smart glasses? Remember, Microvision is trying to sell itself because it has no access to any funding anymore (other than a puny PPP loan). How is Microvision going to fund the smart glasses project?

That is how management is telling you that there will be no sale of the company and Chapter 11 will be filed by the end of the year.

If Microvision no longer needs the videos, why publish at all? Based on what you said, the buyers have all gone and lost interest, and now Microvision is fishing for greater fools. Good luck with that! Pumping the stock price by desperate management just before Chapter 11 filing is not going to end well.
You are not understanding. They show a full list of their patents. Nothing after the April 7 patent is included in the list. The number of pending patents (28) includes all of the ones since April. Therefore, the video was obviously created before then, or they would have included the other patents that have been granted in the last 4 months. I see now that I said "published" when perhaps "produced" was a more suitable word. They were "published" to the public yesterday, but created months and months ago and "published" to private suitors then. They were clearly started at least 2 months beforehand (before April 7), which coincides with the decision to sell and SS being appointed CEO. If the intent was to create them to show to the public today they would have included the more recent patents. You don't finish a promotional marketing video for the public and then wait 4 months to release it. They are not trying to sell anything to the public, they are selling verticals or a full company BO. They can sell verticals off separately without selling the entire company, hence multiple videos.

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about for the "smart glasses project." MVIS is not trying to sell smart glasses to the public, they are not trying to sell smart glasses at all, that's for the likes of Google or Apple or any number of companies with deep pockets that have expertise in producing and marketing successful consumer devices. They are selling technology. These videos are for potential buyers of said technology, pure and simple. Possibly even targeting specific buyers by the design of certain things in the video. They are beyond the point of bringing said suitors to the table and are discussing brass tacks, so they don't need a conceptual abstract to show them anymore, or rather they have already all seen it. Now that they don't need them for that purpose, they share them with the shareholders. It's a pretty obvious abstract promotional enterprise video. As a bonus cherry on top, the timing seems like an easy laugh at the recent short articles like this one.

You and this article make the mistake of focusing on past sales or impending doom and misunderstand the nature of converging exponential technologies. The market is, literally and finally right now, ripe for the types of innovative technology verticals that Microvision is in. MVIS's IP is in an extraordinary position in multiple spaces that are exploding in interest from every tier 1 technology company in the world. If you can't see the trillion dollar interests these future industries have then I'm not sure what to tell you. And if you don't think pocket change for a tier 1 tech company is worth the IP to better position themselves in these spaces then I really don't know what to tell you. You should read up on converging exponential technologies, maybe check out the work of Peter Diamandis. It will help you understand why technology like this is a slam dunk moving forward and how MVIS fits in nicely
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
This seems to be the author. Citation about "stock manipulation scheme" from


"WHITE DIAMOND RESEARCH LLC,ADAM GEFVERT, STREETSWEEPER.ORG, SONYA COLBERG, and “JOHN DOE #1” through “JOHN DOE #5”, the last five names being fictitious and unknown to Plaintiff, the persons or parties intended being those individuals or entities that are a part of the stock manipulation scheme described in the Complaint,..."
RobertPredicts profile picture
SA should vet their writers. I mean .25 price target from 6 months ago? Companies grow, genius. Such a joke like many of the writers/short sellers here.
Richard X Roe profile picture
@RobertPredicts Some companies may grow, but Microvision isn't. It will report zero cash flows from operations, declining revenues in Q2 and horrendous losses (already pronounced in the 10Q for Q1).
RobertPredicts profile picture
Sounds personal.
Page 3 of the CC Sharma says “We completed an agreement with our April 2017 customer to transfer responsibility for component production and to sell production assets without selling any Intellectual Property.”
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
Proves that the article is incorrect in content.
I think you fundamentally misinterpret the companies strategy and surrounding facts.

This is not a going out of business or fire sale. This is a startup who has reached a point where the next logical step is to move their technology to market and maximize shareholder value.

Microvision has been developing and refining their technology for 25+ years and are just now coming into synch with the market. They have core IP in arguably the most compelling AR device from one of the largest tech companies in the world -- Microsoft's HoloLens2 (which has seen such strong demand that they have increased production and are still struggling to keep up with demand). They have consumer and automotive lidar units that are smaller and higher resolution, they have pico production with touch input that looks likely to come to market for the holiday sales season through another top tier.

As far as the fact there is no deal yet, listen to the guidance given -- we have been explicitly told that they have already been in contact with multiple companies and expect to be at the table in discussions in early August. By the time the details are worked out, go through legal and finance on both sides, it is unrealistic to expect anything before early fall. It takes time to put together a deal. This is more like selling a unique high end house than a used car -- you don't jump at the first low ball offer unless you are desperate. We will see on Wednesday that MVIS is far from desperate and is taking the time needed to put together a good deal to maximize share holder value and move their technology into the mainstream via a Tier 1 player with the proper resources.
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
Excellent summary.
Thank you for posting this, these retail investors need a reality check. This stock has been pumped by barstool sports president Dave Portnoy. Hopefully, when there is no buy out on the 5th, these retail investors sell but I honestly don't think they will since they are delusional
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
You also have no idea what Microvision is planning and that a sale was not announced for August 5th, right?
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
It is also always very interesting to see that there are people who wish others, companies, employees and shareholders the worst. This by using false information and dishonest actions, such as short selling. Short selling should be prohibited. It is not possible in reality either.
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
Summary: The author is wrong in all factual questions. In fact, he is so megalomaniac that he thinks an IR department would give him exclusive information, and since they did not, to assume that there is no progress. Just because it wasn't given to him exclusively. In addition, he has not even looked at Microvision's current business model, which is not to generate short-term revenues, but to sell the company, in whole or in part. The valuation of the company as well as of the shares is therefore not to be derived from past sales, but from possible future sales. The price is therefore not derived from past sales, but from expected future sales. If he had read my articles, he would know that. So it is unfortunately to be assumed that - since he himself is short - he is trying to manipulate the share price with false information, if he conceals all the important developments of the last six months.
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
I had already explained that AR, and thus Hololens 2, is only a marginal business of Microsoft as well as for Microvision. Why the author on the one hand refers to sales, but on the other hand claims that the display is very bad, is not clear. It doesn't make any difference to the sales figures whether the display is good or bad, if the whole product is bought anyway. And as it looks like the Hololens 2 sells excellently. That it is a product for companies and still a development over many years is not new either. Even Microsoft says so.
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
The author finally makes himself ridiculous when he refers to a "Microsoft rep". As if any fellow Microsoft employee would know which company Microsoft would buy in the future. Only a very small circle knows this, because even the announcement by any employee of a PR department would be a violation of SEC regulations. Ridiculous, how one can argue like that. If the author had the slightest idea, he would have to know that company takeovers are suddenly and unexpectedly announced by official notice and not by completely insignificant employees on some hotline.
High Tech Stock Review profile picture
"Microvision's Fake Buyout Rumors Rally" is also wrong, of course. It is not a rumor, but an official announcement of the company that it will be sold in parts or in whole. Rumors are at most who could buy. That in turn, however, is not interested at all, but only the price to be achieved for the company. Here other companies, especially car manufacturers and google with Waymo, are much more likely.
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