S&P 500 Weekly Update: Stock Market Pundits Are 'Fooled' Again


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"People who make things happen, people who watch things happen, and people who say, what in the heck happened." - Herman Cain

The bulk of investors remain confused. Some of the best analysts, pundits, and money managers are having a hard time putting this equity market into perspective. Many are left dumbfounded when they try to explain to clients and members of their newsletters exactly what is transpiring in the markets lately. The stock market as measured by the S&P is near an all-time high yet the agenda-driven media is concentrating on the COVID crisis and the pain it has spread across the world.

In a letter to his investors, Seth Klarman, one of the greatest investment minds around recently, described the present stock market as follows:

"Surreal doesn't even begin to describe this moment."

I didn't take that as a negative because I note that Mr. Klarman continues to dig out what he continues to see as value. His Baupost Group continues to be active in this market.

The "experts'' are having trouble reading the tea leaves recently because of all the mixed signals. One area, in particular, is giving them pause. From a sentiment standpoint, the readings are mixed. While the Put/Call ratios are giving bearish signals, the CNN Fear & Greed Index has risen from 2 in March to 64 currently, from Extreme Fear to Greed. When the CNN Fear & Greed Index rises to 80 or higher (Extreme Greed), that would be a cause for concern.

Two weeks ago, the Barron's Insider Transaction Ratio jumped to 44, a bearish signal, but last week, it fell to 16 which is neutral. Amazingly, two weeks ago, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey showed that only 20.2% are bullish; that is the lowest reading since the week of May 23, 2016, when it stood at 7.8%. Bears, on the other hand, soared to 48.5%. The

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This article was written by

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INDEPENDENT Financial Adviser / Professional Investor- with over 35 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice, and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive returns. Last year I launched my Marketplace Service, "The SAVVY Investor", and it's been well received with positive reviews. I've been part of the SA family since 2013 and correctly called the bull market for over 8+ years now. 

MORE IMPORTANTLY, I recognized the change to the BEAR MARKET trend in February '22. 

Since then investors that followed my NEW ERA investment strategy have been able to survive and profit in this BEAR market. Winning advice that is well documented, helping investors to avoid the pitfalls and traps that wreak havoc on a portfolio with a focus on Income and Capital Preservation.

I manage the capital of only a handful of families and I see it as my number one job to protect their financial security. They don’t pay me to sell them investment products, beat an index, abandon true investing for mindless diversification or follow the Wall Street lemmings down the primrose path. I manage their money exactly as I manage my own so I don’t take any risk at all unless I strongly believe it is worth taking. I invite you to join the family of satisfied members and join the "SAVVY Investor".

Disclosure: I am/we are long EVERY STOCK/ETF IN THE SAVVY PLAYBOOK. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: My portfolios are ALL positioned to take advantage of the bull market with NO hedges in place.

This article contains my views of the equity market, it reflects the strategy and positioning that is comfortable for me.

IT IS NOT A BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY. Of course, it is not suited for everyone, as each individual situation is unique.

Hopefully, it sparks ideas, adds some common sense to the intricate investing process, and makes investors feel calmer, putting them in control.

The opinions rendered here, are just that – opinions – and along with positions can change at any time.

As always, I encourage readers to use common sense when it comes to managing any ideas that I decide to share with the community. Nowhere is it implied that any stock should be bought and put away until you die.

Periodic reviews are mandatory to adjust to changes in the macro backdrop that will take place over time. The goal of this article is to help you with your thought process based on the lessons I have learned over the last 35+ years. Although it would be nice, we can't expect to capture each and every short-term move.

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