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Inovio: Accumulate For The HPV And Brain Cancer Therapies

Nov. 19, 2020 11:10 PM ETInovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INO)48 Comments
William Meyers profile picture
William Meyers


  • First commercial approvals could be for HPV therapies in 2022.
  • Brain cancer (glioblastoma) data could indicate a multibillion-dollar opportunity.
  • COVID-19 vaccine success could still be in time for some global demand.

Inovio (NASDAQ:INO) has likely been the most volatile stock in its class of biotechnology companies during the last year. Getting perspective on its true long-term value is crucial to investors. As with other clinical (pre-commercial) stage pharmaceutical stocks, this involves weighing many contingencies. The ratio of Inovio's 52-week high of $33.79 to its 52-week low of $2.19 is about 15, which is remarkable. It closed on November 18 at $11.03, down sharply from last Monday when it rose sharply following news that the FDA granted permission to start its Phase 2 trial for INO-4800, its potential COVID-19 vaccine.

ChartData by YCharts

Given the state of the COVID-19 vaccine race, I believe the bulk of the future value for Inovio is in its HPV precancerous lesion therapies, which will be the focus of this article. The glioblastoma (brain cancer) therapy may have a great deal of value if it gets Phase 3 results sufficient for FDA approval. I will explain why I will heavily discount that outcome until I see the data. Long term, Inovio has a proven platform that should generate new medicine at regular intervals. I will explain why I believe the current price is reasonable for long-term investors, whereas I think the danger outweighs the opportunity for short-term investors unless they like to play with volatility. I note that my last article on Inovio, Inovio's Wild Ride and Real Value, from March 25, 2020, has largely proven to be correct.

INO-4800 for COVID-19 Update and Value

Inovio, after what seemed to be a quick start, fell behind in the race to produce a validated COVID-19 vaccine. At least two companies were able to move at warp speed and may have emergency use authorization from the FDA before the end of 2020. The FDA delayed Inovio's bid, only allowing it to begin the

This article was written by

William Meyers profile picture
I provided stock and bond research and analysis to a small cap specialist investor, Lloyd Miller, from 2002 until his death in January 2018. For my own account I invest mainly in technology and biotechnology stocks. My technology and investment web site is openicon.com, where readers can view the notes I take to make decisions and to write articles for Seeking Alpha.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long INO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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