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Fall 2020 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

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Includes: DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PSQ, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SH, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TNA, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV
by: Ironman at Political Calculations
Summary

The latest forecast for S&P 500 earnings through the end of 2020 suggests a less deep earnings recession than the forecast from the Summer 2020 snapshot.

S&P continues to project a robust recovery for earnings in 2021, although not as strong as it did three months ago.

Changes in S&P's projections for 2021 will be something to watch as we get into 2021, especially with the prospects for a global double-dip recession.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

The latest forecast for S&P 500 earnings through the end of 2020 suggests a less deep earnings recession than the forecast from the Summer 2020 snapshot, indicating a better-than-previously-expected bottom for the Coronavirus Recession. At the same time, S&P continues to project a robust recovery for earnings in 2021, although not as strong as it did three months ago.

The chart shows two previous earnings recessions for the S&P 500 going back to 2014. As you can see from the historic earnings per share data shown in the chart, Standard & Poor's has a history of making optimistic projections, which are often revised downward. Changes in S&P's projections for 2021 will be something to watch as we get into 2021, especially with the prospects for a global double-dip recession.

Data Source

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor's. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 12 November 2020. Accessed 19 November 2020.

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