Moderna Delivers The Bad News

Summary

• MRNA could generate $18 billion in COVID-19 revenue this year, shattering expectations.
• 2021 revenue is likely a high watermark. MRNA should squirrel away capital to fund future vaccines.
• Management did not indicate what it expected 2022 revenue to look like. No news is bad news, in my opinion.
• The 2022 COVID-19 market is expected to fall hard. A smaller market and more competition sound foreboding for MRNA.
• Sell MRNA.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Shocking The Street. Get started today »

Source: Barron's

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) reported Q4 revenue of $570.7 million and GAAP EPS of -$0.69. The company beat on revenue by over $291 million, but missed on earnings. The stock rose just over 4% post-earnings. I had the following takeaways on the quarter.

2021 Advance Purchase Orders Blew Me Away

Moderna continues to cut supply deals and ramp up revenue as a major rollout of COVID-19 vaccines is underway. President Biden has pledged 150 million COVID-19 vaccinations in 100 hundred days, and Moderna is expected to play a major part in those plans. In Q4 2020 Moderna, Pfizer (PFE) and AstraZeneca (AZN) had each received Emergency Use Authorization for COVID-19 vaccines. AstraZeneca came to market shortly thereafter; however, the German media has questioned the efficacy of AstraZeneca's vaccine, particularly among seniors.

Up until now the COVID-19 vaccine market has been largely a two-horse race between Moderna and Pfizer. Moderna's Q4 revenue of $571 million was up about 88% sequentially on the strength of product sales. Sales growth could remain explosive for the rest of 2021.

Grant revenue was 60% of total revenue, while product sales were 35%. Product sales were largely non-existent prior to Q4. Product sales represent customer deposits recorded as deferred revenue; revenue is recorded upon customer acceptance and control of the transferred product. Grant revenue largely reflects revenue from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority ("BARDA"), which is part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response. This revenue is recognized as Moderna performs services under the agreement.

Bernstein analysts projected Moderna to garner $11 billion in sales from a 2021 COVID-19 market expected to be around $39 billion. I was keen on Moderna's management confirming this $11 billion figure. Management divulged it has advanced purchase agreements ("APA") representing about $18.4 billion in product sales:

Already-signed APA agreements for expected delivery in 2021 reflect a total of $18.4 billion in anticipated product sales. Based on continuous progress to ramp up available supply capacity in our network, we have raised the lower end of our global manufacturing plan for 2021 from 600 million to 700 million doses at the 100-microgram dose level. Manufacturing is still working to supply up to 1 billion doses for 2021. Further, we expect a range of related - of released doses in Q1 2021 of 100 million to 125 million doses and 200 million to 250 million doses in the second quarter.

The figure blew me away, yet the stock only appreciated about 4%. Pfizer expects to about $15 billion in 2021 vaccine sales. If the market this year is expected to about $39 billion, then that could leave only $6 billion of sales for AstraZeneca, Novavax (NVAX) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to fight over. Moderna was extremely busy while Novavax and JNJ awaited results of late-stage clinical trials. The efforts will likely pay off handsomely for Moderna.

Cash Flow

Bernstein analysts expect the COVID-19 vaccine market to fall to about $23 billion in 2022 - a decline of about 40%. Moderna's vaccine revenue could also fall hard next. JNJ recently received Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA. Novavax could soon bring its vaccine to the market once clinical trials are complete. The total vaccine market could decline next year and Moderna's market share could fall. Moderna's 2021 vaccine revenue is likely due to its first mover advantage, which may dissipate next year. I expect governments to share the wealth and not be so dependent on one or two suppliers in future.

If Moderna's $18.4 billion in revenue is not recurring then 2021 results could be a cash flow play. Management should squirrel away as much capital as possible in order to fund future development of vaccines. Over the past year Moderna generated free cash flow ("FCF") of about $2.0 billion. As revenue flows in over the year, I expect the company's FCF to continue to accumulate. Moderna has nine infectious disease vaccines that cut across four therapeutic areas. The company ended the quarter with $5.2 billion in cash, up from $1.3 billion in the year-earlier period. Moderna could potentially use this capital to fund R&D efforts and potentially bring vaccines for other diseases to market.

Valuation Remains A Question Mark

Since Moderna's 2021 revenue is likely not recurring, I believe the company should be valued based on 2022 projected revenue. I was hoping management would give an indication of what 2022 revenue could look like. However, management simply talked about ramping up supply in 2022:

So we decided to add manufacturing capacity. We have communicated previously that our capacity for 2022, given the ramp in 2021, will be approximately up to 1.2 billion doses, assuming 100-microgram dose. We have decided and have started to buy additional capital equipment, hire more people and order more raw materials towards 200 million doses per year of capacity for 2022. So if you assume a 100-microgram dose, we will have 1.4 billion doses of capacity for fiscal year '22. In other words, we will build the manufacturing capacity to make up to 140 kilograms, yes, kilograms, of formulated mRNA in 2022.

No news on 2022 revenue was bad news in my opinion. Secondly, the 2022 COVID-19 market could be divvied up between three or four major players. Moderna and Pfizer have vaccines with efficacy north of 94%, this makes them serious contenders. However, the ultra-cold storage requirements for their vaccines could put more stress on their supply chains vis-a-vis competitors. Novavax's vaccine demonstrated 89% efficacy in clinical trials and it can be transported at refrigerated temperatures.

JNJ's vaccine demonstrated 66% efficacy, yet may only require a single dose, versus two-shots for Pfizer and Moderna; a single-dose vaccine could help the vaccination rollout go quicker. JNJ's vaccine also showed 85% efficacy against severe COVID-19 28 days following vaccination, another strength that regulators and consumers could put value on.

Governments will want to disseminate doses evenly among suppliers next year. This would allow the government to not become too dependent one or two suppliers. A $23 billion market split between three or four players implies Moderna's 2022 COVID-19 revenue could fall hard relative to 2021 results. This could make it difficult to support MRNA's $61 billion market capitalization.

Conclusion

2021 revenue is likely a high water market for MRNA. More competition from JNJ and potentially, NVAX, could weigh. Sell MRNA.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are short MRNA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Comments

[subpopfinance]

One fact check: The MRNA vaccine does not require ultracold storage, it only needs normal freezer temps.

Everyone knows the massive COVID vaccine boost is temporary, otherwise it wouldn’t be trading at a ~6 P/E for 2021. But I’m betting that the COVID vaccine cash can carry them through to several blockbuster vaccines coming out in the next 5 years. There’s also a strong possibility that everyone needs an annual booster of the COVID vaccine that will mean recurring cash for Moderna.

[Shock Exchange]

@subpopfinance That helps the situation. It could remove any advantage NVAX may have had.

SE

[Chihawk Research]

@Shock Exchange Moderna is also trialing a refrigerant version vaccine. We should get immunogenicity this month and if successful it would be ready by the Fall flu season (Soon to be called the Fall Covid/Flu season).

[subpopfinance]

@Shock Exchange Thanks for the reply, I always enjoy reading other prospectives on what I own.

[ScienceMatters]

Appears vaccine trials lately has been cherry-picking and innovative interpretations. Why not people and the street remember PFE and MRNA published the trial protocols and present trial results open to public and through peer reviewed journals? The deterioration of trial standards does no good for the industry and public confidence we badly need to contain the pandemic. See the link below.

www.nih.gov/...

[ScienceMatters]

Copied from WSJ. Is Juan Andres Bancel’s buddy they just hired from Norvatis where Juan was overseeing worldwide productions? Impressive on the production side.

“Moderna, of Cambridge, Mass., took about three months to make the first 20 million doses of its vaccine last year, but now it is making roughly 40 million a month for the U.S., Juan Andres, chief technical operations and quality officer, said in an interview.

He said the company would likely peak at producing 50 million a month by summer.

Moderna laid much of the groundwork for its production capacity last year by adding floor space and new equipment to its plant in Norwood, Mass., and another plant in Portsmouth, N.H., operated by its contract manufacturing partner Lonza Ltd.

It wasn’t able to produce at maximum capacity right out of the gate, however, because of the need to introduce new equipment and processes in stages. Moderna was still training newly hired workers and encountering issues like equipment malfunctions and holdups in getting replacement parts such as filters.

“There has not been a single week since we started that we have not had issues,” Mr. Andres said. “In making medicines, it is absolutely impossible not to have issues in the beginning. It takes time.”

Now, the company has trained employees and figured out how to address challenges like getting raw material to its plants more quickly, he said. The company has also looked for ways to speed the process, including shortening the time needed after a batch is finished to inspect and package vials.

It is planning to further speed output by boosting the number of doses in each vial to 15 from 10, something that needs U.S. regulatory approval, Mr. Andres said.

“We’re in the zone,” he said. “I like our chances to continue delivering.”

[Chihawk Research]

@ScienceMatters Juan Andres and Stephane Bancel worked at Eli Lilly together. Those years of Bancel at Eli Lilly had a big effect later on for Moderna. Noubar Afeyan wanted Bancel for Moderna based on his work at BioMérieux and Eli Lilly. That experience has clearly given a more mature direction than I would normally expect from this large biotech. I do wish these guys would hold their options, but their work is great.

Keep in mind that 50 million/ month production is not Lonza's full production. It's just the US. I think we are close to Moderna going to 800 million in the target. I also think 2021 is going over a billion. If you are making Winter targets and it's your first full quarter of production it's a very good sign. And these guys are clearly still building out.

[sts66]

@ScienceMatters WSJ article must be ancient - MRNA got FDA approval to fill vials with 14 doses instead of 10 weeks ago.

[ScienceMatters]

@sts66 yes, a few weeks ago. The essential story line is about the production side. I have been watching this part of the story unfold. Besides R&D and new med discovery, production and scale up is a test for a young biotech to grow and grab the market as a disruptive force. So far MRNA has been smooth to ramp up worldwide productions, to my surprise, without big hiccups.

[mrkd]

A one hit wonder.

[dellis915]

@mrkd Thankfully, this isn't a yahoo message board. I for one appreciate intelligent comments with real data. If you have the inclination to research or even read posted comments you will find that Moderna has now developed vaccines for Zika, Cancer, AIDS, and herpies among many others. You may visit their website to understand where each of these vaccines are with respect to clinical trials.

Again, for one liner, dataless comments, please use yahoo messages. More people will see your comment and you may get thumbs up in recognition of your contribution.

[sts66]

@dellis915 "Moderna has now developed vaccines for Zika, Cancer, AIDS, and herpies among many others"

"Is developing", not "has developed" - big diff in the meaning, need P3 clinical trials to prove they're safe and effective. And the cancer trials will likely take years, they're notoriously slow to get readouts - NWBO has been waiting for what, 14 yrs?

[mrkd]

@dellis915 , Who are you? the Seeking Alpha Police.
.. Its my opinion.. but thanks for replying exactly like someone would on a Yahoo forum.😂

[anil92691]

NVAX plans on introducing a combo vaccine for Flu and COVID. I expect it will be available by 2023-2024. Probably earlier if Fauci & Biden et. el. are really concerned of public health.

Such a vaccine would kill Moderna and Pfizer's vaccine sales. It will also force other flu vaccine manufacturers including Pfizer to introduce their own combo vaccine, after all the Flu vaccine is a cocktail of several viruses.

Also there is a sure drop by 50% for next year and later as this is a two dose vaccine and only one per year maximum as a booster is expected; that is if we dont find that the immunity lasts 5 years or ten years or even longer.

And then there are the Indian and Russian vaccines that will take over the world as they will be a lot cheaper than US made affecting international sales.

This was a good ride. Time to leave the vaccine manufacturers whose stock was riding this pandemic.

[Hudson Investments]

@anil92691 pipe dream

[achilleus]

@ArnieW maybe, maybe not.
these two companies have a lot more potential than this set of vaccines; but first the stocks will have to consolidate.
could well take a year or two after the big move is over. But this is new technology, in first deployment. Potential looks nearly limitless.

[Hudson Investments]

@achilleus
Moderna is ahead of NVAX, who doesn’t have a Covid-19 approved vaccine yet, and M has pipeline vaccines for the Flu, Cancer, Zika etc. already based on the mRNA process. Many of these pipeline drugs are in phase 2 study and are looking promising.

[Chihawk Research]

I think there will be reoccurring revenue here....
theintercept.com/...

[Shock Exchange]

@Chihawk Research

The valuation should not be based on "I think ..."

SE

[Chihawk Research]

@Shock Exchange ok. I know the revenue will be reoccurring at this point. The science, production and need is obvious at this point.

[achilleus]

@Chihawk Research really one can only talk about probabilities.

somebody comes out with a spray mist tomorrow that cures all ills.
probability: low

this company will have recurring revenue.
probability: moderate to high.

[Dag Nabbit]

After reading the article and comments I must ask: Is anyone working on a sorely-needed vaccine for confirmation bias?

[AlphaGeeko]

@Dag Nabbit
I like your post. It confirms what I have been thinking.

[Shock Exchange]

@Dag Nabbit

The Shock Exchange was just thinking the same thing ...

[happysoul77777]

The Fed just said the economy is going to have good growth without inflation!

[Naeturgali_mudphud]

To the author: 

I wrote elsewhere, but this article is remarkably flawed, from a public health/medicine/virology perspective. It's making a lot of terrible assumptions (the number one being the idea that Moderna is a COVID vaccine company; they're not, they're an mRNA delivery company, which means they can eventually do an insane number of things like personal cancer vaccines, eventually cell-specific delivery, etc. And they have both CMV and Zika vaccines in late stage (phase 3 and 2 respectively; CMV is the number one cause of birth defects in the US and 70% of all of us are chronically infected...it's a herpes virus). Just as COVID is hopefully winding down in the developed world, those products should be ready for market. Not to mention a company with $20B in revenue will probably earn so much the P/E well under 20 at the end of the year (if it tanks as you think, or even is stagnant). And I'd say their forward-looking multiples are value-attractive too, despite them being a growth stock.

Short-term, it's just out of a cup with handle. Medium-term prospects are solid to excellent based on issues with the live virus vaccines, pediatric trial, variant vaccines, concerns over the viral chimera vaccines (AZN and J&J, as well as those from Sinovac and Russia) and their late-stage clinical trials. I would argue their long-term prospects as a disruptive tech are on a par with Apple, Tesla, Amazon, etc. at all of those companies earnings - to + inflection points. Actually, in terms of development cycle, that inflection is coming incredibly soon for Moderna. Moderna, unlike any of those, has a guaranteed MONSTER revenue stream for the inflection year of what amounts to about a quarter of market cap. That's ridiculous. Their overhead is low, too. No bioreactors or small molecule screening. Lean. And with insane goodwill in the medical community. They will attract the best talent. They have the support of the medical community (hell, many might even invest). IDK what you're thinking, dude. And I'm not talking out my ass, this pandemic is the confluence of my two doctoral trainings...critical care MD and viral immunology PhD.

This tech is a 20-y/o idea that had the entire science/medicine world on fire (read about siRNA and Craig Mello, although hopes for RNA predate that), but delivery was the problem. Still is with siRNA. Moderna solved it for messenger RNA and patented it. Now they're going to refine and expand it. They have the support of the Biological Advanced Research and Development Authority...the federal body that prepares for exactly this sort of thing (there's your tax dollars doing the most they ever have). Don't like their pipeline (idk why you wouldn't)? Well, with $20B they can add to it. They can buy back stock. Eliminate some debt. Just...wow, what are you thinking? You need a WAY better grasp of the tech, the market, and the medicine before you go writing articles on them. This absolutely whiffs on almost every major point. Disclaimer, I am most definitely long on MRNA. In a very big way. Oh well, articles like this just help me. I like to buy the dips.

[Pisces19081]

@Naeturgali_mudphud Nice read and I am long as well adding to my position on the dips. Nice to read someone else's professional point of view on Moderna. I also agree with your assessment on this article.

[Limot]

@Naeturgali_mudphud "Moderna solved it for messenger RNA and patented it." So what is BNTX doing?

So for instance, mRNA delivery mechanism replaces U by Ψ in the RNA code to avoid the body recognizing it as RNA, as per this blog post

berthub.eu/...

But are you saying MRNA or BNTX has patented the UΨ swap? Then how is the other company (BNTX or MRNA) making sure to also not trigger the defense mechanisms of the body, e.g. to not trigger Type I Interferon pathways?

(As per this below blog post, Type I Interferon pathways, if triggered, can do a lot of damage.

blogs.sciencemag.org/... )

Basically, we have two companies doing very similar tech. What's the patent situation on that?

[achilleus]

@Limot bntx is not an american company so does not fall under american patent law.......................................................

[Michael Clark]

STOCKS ARE NOT RATIONAL or rationalizable. They do not listen to readers/writers' arguments. Rationalizing might make investors more comfortable with their investments but they do nothing else.

Stocks are moved by emotion, by sentiment.

MACHINE-TRADING FOR EVERYONE, CGTS. FISHNET TRADING SYSTEM

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2 Long 51 09/10/20 11/20/20 +40.050 +69.58 Exit Long Rule
3 Short 19 12/09/20 01/07/21 +41.500 +26.50 Exit Short Rule
4 Long 26 01/08/21 02/17/21 +64.010 +56.77 Exit Long Rule

KEY: #4, TOOK A LONG POSITION IN MRNA 1/8/21 AND CLOSED IT ON 2/17/21, 26 TRADING DAYS, A GAIN OF 64.01 POINTS OR 56.77%.

LATEST TRADE (updated 3/26/21):
MRNA
3/15/21 132.19 LONG
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[Steve Fischer]

Pfizers' vaccine is better anyway - fights more strains and less side effects. Drug companies are not in fashion now but they will be ok. This one isnt the best- Vertex and CRISPR hold a lot more promise.

[Shock Exchange]

@Steve Fischer That sounds bearish for MRNA.

[Steve Fischer]

@Shock Exchange I think at least up until now -and probably well into the future people will be taking any vaccine they could get. CRISPR is something else entirely -developed by Cal Berkeley Scientists who won a Nobel Prize for it.

[Shock Exchange]

@Steve Fischer Agreed. They will take MRNA, JNJ, PFE or NVAX, depending on what's available.

SE

[Hudson Investments]

Moderna delivers the GOOD news.

They will come out with mRNA-1283 which will be refrigerator safe.
They are testing variant boosters.
The mRNA-1273 works well with the current predominant variants and they have had no hospitalizations or deaths for anybody who has gotten the two dose regimen 4 weeks apart.

THE USA has pre-ordered multi-million doses of the Moderna vaccine which guarantees a steady income for the company and the ability to proceed with the final testing of several pipeline drugs that utilize their patented messenger RNA process.

[MicahF]

@ArnieW Thank you for sharing this information with us. This is a glaring omission by the author who is short in MRNA.

[Shock Exchange]

@ArnieW How much revenue does that equate to?

SE

[Chihawk Research]

Phase 1 study of our next generation COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1283,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. “Our investments in our mRNA platform have enabled us to develop this next generation vaccine candidate, which is a potential refrigerator-stable vaccine that could facilitate easier distribution and administration in a wider range of settings, including potentially for developing countries. We remain committed to helping address this ongoing public health emergency.”

This Phase 1 dose-ranging study will assess the safety and immunogenicity of mRNA-1283, a next-generation vaccine candidate against COVID-19. mRNA-1283 encodes for the portions of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein critical for neutralization, specifically the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) and N-terminal Domain (NTD). The encoded mRNA-1283 antigen is being developed as a potentially refrigerator-stable mRNA vaccine that will facilitate distribution and administration by healthcare providers. This Phase 1 study will evaluate three dose levels, 10 µg, 30 µg, and 100 µg, of the mRNA-1283 vaccine candidate given to healthy adults as a 2-dose series, 28 days apart, and one dose level, 100 µg, of mRNA-1283 given to healthy adults in a single dose. These will be compared with a 2-dose series of 100 µg of mRNA-1273, the currently authorized dose level. mRNA-1283 is intended to be evaluated in futures studies for use as a booster dose for previously vaccinated or seropositive as well as in a primary series for seronegative individuals.
investors.modernatx.com/...

[Jim Wilbanks]

@Chihawk Research So when the 30 ug is found to be just as effective and safe as the 100 ug, does that mean they just increased their production 3 fold? Just asking for a friend.

[Chihawk Research]

@Jim Wilbanks Yes. Based on the Q4 call it's that simple with the mRNA process.
But there is more to this than dose reduction...
I think when the single dose 100 µg refrigerant stable vaccine is found to be more efficacious (especially to new variants) than JNJ it's time to bring mRNA to the developing world.

[Hudson Investments]

@Jim Wilbanks If it’s the same vaccine, yes. It’s just a matter of increasing the dosage 3 1/3 X in my opinion.

[KeithCole]

Seems like everyone in my area getting the Moderna shot is getting sick from it

[User 825841]

@KeithCole Many news outlets are avoiding to cover this. Many can barely get out of bed two weeks later. They are not even talking about some who received the vaccine second dose developed Parkinson's like symptoms. Unknown how long those symptoms will last.

[jupenya]

@Aristocrat & Dividend King Investor They last forever - take the Olderma one or the China-nova vac. Most vac reactions are in your head. Cheers!

[sts66]

@Aristocrat & Dividend King Investor Proof? I think you're just making that up - I've seen zero reports of such severe reactions from MRNA's vaccine.

[Starfish115]

Good points but not discussed is any upside from new products based on it technology ie cancer

[achilleus]

@Starfish115 it does seem strange but then these are strange times.

Also headlines = vaccines vs. backpages = everything else

[Limot]

@Starfish115 The cancer vaccine is old news, I can find articles dated 2016 and 2018 on the idea of mRNA cancer vaccines. It is a new tech, with the typical risks for investing in new tech. So the stock would reflect the risk/reward already, it's the "fully baked in" thing.

[achilleus]

@Limot no.

[Bobandstuff]

It is trading at 7x forward PE. And just proved to the world it's tech is legitimate. Its a joke to call this a covid play. There will be considerable more pressure to use the tech in the future. Not to mention boosters, if you want to call it a covid play.

This is the cheapest legit growth biotech stock in the market.

[Shock Exchange]

@Bobandstuff Earnings are not recurring.

SE

[GameBuzz]

@Shock Exchange Why do you think the company won’t have any earnings going forward?

[achilleus]

@GameBuzz 
earnings are announced quarterly because they do not recur

[Willy42]

Geez, what will they do with $18B? You can't squirrel away that much dough. So, you pocket $1.3B for R&D, what do you do with $17B?

[achilleus]

@Willy42
arbitrarily designate some 3rd world country a threat to survival and start up the war machines

[sts66]

@Willy42 They're not _earning_ $18B, that's gross revs - don't know their margins and OPEX will go up, but they should have enough profit to pay the bills until their next non-CV19 vaccine for CMV comes out. In contrast, NVAX shelf is pretty bare of new candidates, and they've been sitting on the Nanoflu results forever, still haven't submitted an NDA.

[Puche]

@sts66, I agree with you comment about gross revenues versus profits. With that said, do not be surprised if MRNA leaves the year with approximately $12 - $15 BILLION in cash and investments on its balance sheet at the end of 2021.

Just my two cents. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

[Michael Clark]

MACHINE-TRADING FOR EVERYONE, CGTS. FISHNET TRADING SYSTEM

1 Long 33 10/11/19 12/04/19 +7.215 +51.33 Exit Long Rule
2 Long 51 09/10/20 11/20/20 +40.050 +69.58 Exit Long Rule
3 Short 19 12/09/20 01/07/21 +41.500 +26.50 Exit Short Rule
4 Long 26 01/08/21 02/17/21 +64.010 +56.77 Exit Long Rule

KEY: #4, TOOK A LONG POSITION IN MRNA 1/8/21 AND CLOSED IT ON 2/17/21, 26 TRADING DAYS, A GAIN OF 64.01 POINTS OR 56.77%.

LATEST TRADE (updated 3/16/21):
5 Long 7 03/05/21 03/16/21 +23.830 POINTS +18.03% Open

[Jail]

IMO this is a near-sighted series of articles from this author about MRNA, and are decent justification of the author's short position, but fail to consider the value of the company's technology moving forward. The decreased valuation over the last couple weeks is indicative of the market's belief in a purely COVID play, but the technology is here to stay with this virus unlikely to be a one-time event. Additionally, the company is going to use this technology to battle other diseases that traditional vaccines have failed to do effectively. Staying long MRNA.

[Limot]

@Jail I agree. If MRNA was under $30, maybe $15, I would have started accumulating, because it would have been a fair bet that within a few years the stock would be worth ten times that, based on its great new technology. As it is - a pure Covid-19 play, with half a dozen competitors, dependent upon the news releases and rumors of the day, hyped to ten times its value already... I think this could kill MRNA as and when the vaccines' failure is understood by the public.

[Bright spot]

@Limot, being over 90% effective isn't a failure. So, not really sure what you're thinking.

[Limot]

@Bright spot That's the spin, is what I am thinking. In reality, the virus shape-shifts so effectively that people would have be vaccinated weekly.

At some point, people are going to start finding out that the pandemic is basically gone from Africa, India, even China, and are going to wonder how that happened without vaccines. I am also thinking that the pandemic just goes away in summers naturally if nobody wears masks.

Many states in the US are already opening up, defying CDC and vaccines and masks, and once it becomes clear that no-masks and no-vaccines is the way to defeat the pandemic, once people revolt against masks, it will be game over for vaccine sellers.

So that's what I am thinking.

[TheWallStreetKid]

I have sold out all of my Moderna shares over the past 3 weeks and moved it into Pfizer.