My 37 Stock $333k February Retirement Portfolio Consolidates With A New Massive Industrial Position

Summary

• My former 45-stock portfolio gets a haircut down to 37 stocks as I de-diversify in favor of bigger and riskier bets with volatility on the rise.
• Global Ship Lease is the new major position in my portfolio with earnings in the first week of March and upside potential all year long in my opinion.
• A portfolio built for individual investors to outperform the majority of money managers in good and bad times through diversity and risk with the goal to be worth millions in retirement.

It is my firm belief that 80% of money managers can't outperform the S&P 500 index over time due primarily to the fees they charge their clients. Each and every individual person intent on having the happiest retirement possible could and should take charge of their retirement portfolios and invest in simple index/mutual funds and/or a balanced portfolio like the one I have set up to maximize returns over decades of performance. My ratios and distributions are based on my book, which can be found on Amazon, which was written with beginning investors and young people like high schoolers and college students in mind to outperform professional money managers over time. My retirement portfolio reached up over $350,000 for the first time in February before pullback's mainly in the last week of the month dropped it down to its current level.

During the month of January, my retirement portfolio had $2,100 in contributions added to it. In February, my spouse and I contributed $12,000 to our IRA portfolios for 2020 with the goal to do another $12,000 in IRA contributions for 2021 later on this year. Here is how my portfolio performed compared to the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) over January and February of 2021.

Fund	(SPY)	Welsh	Welsh Minus Contributions
% Gain Jan 2021	-1.02%	2.85%	2.2%
% Gain Feb 2021	2.84%	2.59%	-1.1%
YTD GAINS	1.73%	5.5%	1.05%

Click to enlarge

Regular contributions to your retirement portfolio help your portfolio to grow even on less than ideal months where you fail to outperform the S&P 500. Not every month will be a winner, but regular contributions can help make anyone's performance look good over time.

Here's how the SPY has tracked over the beginning of 2021. It continues to have strong starts at the beginning of the month with big selloffs right at the end of the month.

Data by YCharts

My portfolio was divided up to start 2021 at around 73% stocks and around 27% mutual and index funds with the goal to increase stocks to over 80% of my portfolio over time. It is currently built with approximately 89% domestic stocks and 11% foreign stocks as I continue to diversify away from globalism in the current environment. I have about 3% of my portfolio in bond mutual funds so that I know how they work and to have at least a little exposure to this sector over time. I plan to have bonds be a very small portion of my portfolio up to right around age 65. Diversification lifts my whole portfolio's returns over time, so finding the best stocks in every sector is a goal for me each and every year. Here are some of the main changes since my last portfolio article in January of 2021.

Welsh Portfolio	Stocks	Index/Mutual Funds	Bonds	Domestic	International
December 2020	72%	28%	3%	85%	15%
January 2021	73%	27%	2.6%	87%	13%
February 2021	72%	28%	3%	89%	11%

Click to enlarge

Here are the details of my personal ~$333k portfolio then, based on values of approximately $30k, $300k, and $3 million broken down by sectors with brief descriptions of each stock in each sector. The best thing about my portfolio setup is that it is scalable so that people interested in following a similar path can set up their portfolios to follow my path no matter how small or large their holdings are. With fee-free trading and the advent of fractional shares, investors are more capable than ever in setting up amazing portfolios even when starting from scratch.

The Welsh Portfolio 2021 The Welsh Portfolio

The Information Technology Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$AAPL	$970	$9,700	$97,000
$QCOM	$840	$8,400	$84,000
$XLNX	$610	$6,100	$61,000
$DELL	$450	$4,500	$45,000
$MSFT	$210	$2,100	$21,000
$RBOX	$0	$0	$0
% Portfolio		12.8%

Click to enlarge

1. Apple (AAPL) should be considered as a potential cornerstone piece to any portfolio as one of the world's largest and most profitable companies that prints money almost faster than the Fed. It is currently my 6th largest holding which I am always willing to add more shares of. My holdings in the Information Technology sector are down substantially, after my latest consolidation, which means that adding additional Apple shares now is a top priority.

2. QUALCOMM (QCOM) is a major technology solutions provider for companies like Apple and will be an integral part of upcoming transformational secular revolutions like 5G. It's currently my 8th largest individual position with no plans to ever sell currently.

3. Xilinx (XLNX) is being acquired by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in a $35B all-stock transaction hopefully before the end of 2021. I love the built-in arbitrage of all-stock transactions like this for tremendous companies like AMD and didn't mind selling my AMD in 2020 to buy Xilinx. I hope to boost my shares in Xilinx later on in the year, after I hopefully double my current Apple position, when the AMD deal is close to finishing.

4. Dell (DELL) is a legacy holding which continues to aggressively grow through value acquisitions like the $67B EMC deal and the future potential full acquisition of the hybrid cloud giant VMware (NYSE:VMW) which it owns ~80% of. Michael Dell is a shareholder winner through and through and following in his stock footpaths I think is a good long-term decision.

5. Microsoft (MSFT) is a dominating force of nature that only government intervention seems able to slow down. It has done a phenomenal job of transitioning itself into a dominating cloud player.

6. Roblox (RBLX) is a teen gaming platform that plans to come public through a direct listing here in March. My hope is that it does not come out of the gate as hot as earlier IPOs DoorDash (DASH) and Airbnb (ABNB), which were too expensive for investing in for me personally when they premiered. I always try to have an eye on what younger generations are loving and this platform is expanding and growing phenomenally. I already have some cash set aside for a small position in Roblox when it lists with the potential to sell part of my other holdings for a bigger position if the valuation doesn't seem too egregious.

VMware (VMW), StoneCo (STNE), Visa (V), and Slack (WORK) were all smaller former positions that I sold as I bolstered some of my bigger bets and prepared some cash for Roblox's hopeful debut.

The Health Care Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$ARWR	$1,830	$18,300	$183,000
$MDT	$460	$4,600	$46,000
$MDXG	$670	$6,700	$67,000
$LLY	$510	$5,100	$51,000
$PFE	$280	$2,800	$28,000
% Portfolio		15.6%

Click to enlarge

7. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is my 4th largest individual stock position as an RNAi juggernaut entering key Phase 3 trials in 2021. A lovely balance sheet with key partnerships with Janssen (JNJ) and Amgen (AMGN) significantly de-risk its TRiM platform as it continues to expand into additional cell types. It has had a nice consolidation around $80 for a bit now so hopefully some good news will be all it needs to reach for that $100 handle.

8. Medtronic (MDT) Health Care device maker that I think has significant upside from COVID-19 issues for years to come. Hospitals will need the best equipment companies like Medtronic provide as health issues from Covid-19 could persist for years.

9. MiMedx (MDXG) was my largest individual stock position for a good portion of 2020 as the company made momentous strides in getting its financials back in order and re-listed on the NASDAQ. I trimmed this position after re-listing as its potentially game-changing knee osteoarthritis data comes out later in 2021. I hope to slowly add back to this position in 2021.

10. Eli Lilly (LLY) is a favored legacy holding that I hope to slowly add to over time and never sell. Some amazing drugs and a pipeline of potential game changing candidates can give this company real zip when good data hits.

11. Pfizer (PFE) A healthcare behemoth with a big stake in the fight against COVID-19. It seems like a great deal at current prices after its pullback from recent highs to start the year warranting me starting a new position in the company in late February.

Data by YCharts

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) was sold as it became a smaller position in my portfolio after disappointing SRPT-9001 study results cut its stock in half in January.

The Communication Services Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$DIS	$2,060	$20,600	$206,000
$T	$980	$9,800	$98,000
$WWE	$540	$5,400	$54,000
$GOOGL	$400	$4,000	$40,000
% Portfolio		16.5%

Click to enlarge

12. Disney (DIS) will crush Netflix (NFLX) over time as its streaming platform continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Forever stock for me as my 2nd largest individual stock holding while always looking to add cheap shares. Unfortunately pullbacks have been few and far between meaning I might not be adding shares until the end of 2021.

13. AT&T (T) is my main dividend play as my 5th largest individual stock holding with current yields a little over 7.25%. Amazingly strong cash flows mean that management can continue to bumble along without much fear of bankruptcy. If management ever figures out how to add value, this stock is set to soar. Its most recent $8B deal to offload some of DirecTV's risk is a step in the right direction, but serves to highlight management's incompetence in the recent past for sure.

14. World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) is one of the few remaining live event media stocks growing globally, while always a potential takeover target from juggernauts like Disney. Plus, late at night, when finding a good streaming movie seems virtually impossible, putting on a mindless WWE match serves as a great way to end the day for me at least.

15. Alphabet (GOOGL) One of the latest adds to my portfolio from the infamous FANG names which will most likely land in the never sell category. I prefer it currently over the likes of Facebook (FB) due to privacy issues but that might just be a transitory feeling.

The Financial Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$GBTC	$2,120	$21,200	$212,000
$JPM	$880	$8,800	$88,000
$BLK	$490	$4,900	$49,000
$HSBC	$220	$2,200	$22,000
% Portfolio		15.4%

Click to enlarge

16. Bitcoin (OTC:GBTC) soared over the back part of 2020 and rallied even more to start 2021 by reaching new all-time highs. Even after the most recent significant pullback, it is still my largest individual stock position as institutions continue to take a greater interest in it. As world banks and the Fed continue to print money like it's going out of style due to COVID-19, alternate money sources like Bitcoin could easily continue to see outsized gains in my opinion. Even Elon Musk likes it. Its pullback to end the month is one of the main reasons for my underperformance to the S&P 500 this month. Still absolutely love it though as my top investment.

Data by YCharts

17. JPMorgan (JPM) is the best big bank out there. I rest my case your honor. A recent winner in the recent volatility in interest rates as my 7th largest holding.

Data by YCharts

18. BlackRock (BLK) is a leader in index funds and always seems to be completing deals that continue to bring long-term investor results, in my opinion. They do a good job of growing their annual dividend as well.

19. HSBC Bank (HSBC) is a legacy holding that might finally see some upside if the United Kingdom can ever get Brexit resolved. That of course, might be a big if.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMAS) were sold as smaller positions in my portfolio. Hope has seemed to dry up at this time for a release of Fannie from government control so no reason to hold on to it any longer.

The Consumer Discretionary Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$AMZN	$620	$6,200	$62,000
$TSCO	$470	$4,700	$47,000
$MELI	$330	$3,300	$33,000
% Portfolio		5.9%

Click to enlarge

20. Amazon (AMZN) continues to dominate the world of online retail, cloud, and virtually anything else it expands into like no other company in history. Is on my current never-sell list with a small celebration every time I can add another share.

21. Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) quietly continues to perform as one of the best companies in retail mostly immune to Amazon's dominance. Its acquisition of Petsense makes a lot of sense now, especially with the growth of everything pet in the wake of COVID-19.

22. MercadoLibre (MELI) is Latin America's Amazon. One of the best international stocks in my portfolio that I really should add more to on pullbacks.

Tesla (TSLA) stock has been amazing giving me thousands to tens of thousands in profits over the past few years as I buy and sell trends. I sold my tiny position while it was above $800 just because exuberance for the stock has been seeming to fade with GameStop and other stocks grabbing highlights. I'm hoping Tesla pulls back into the $500 range or less again where I might once again start up a small position.

The Consumer Staples Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$PG	$460	$4,600	$46,000
$PEP	$400	$4,000	$40,000
$GIS	$360	$3,600	$36,000
% Portfolio		5.1%

Click to enlarge

23. Procter & Gamble (PG) is a legacy holding that sports a decent growing dividend along with many best in class brands like Olay, Head & Shoulders, Dawn, and Charmin. Always nice to have some stalwarts for the upcoming recessions and depressions.

24. PepsiCo (PEP) is a phenomenal drink company with brands like Pepsi-Cola, Gatorade, and Tropicana along with amazing growth in the snack category with Frito-Lay that, in my mind, sets it apart from competitors like Coke (KO).

25. General Mills (GIS) is a legacy holding for me with a great dividend that experienced a huge turnaround during COVID-19 with its brands, including its $8B acquisition of Blue Buffalo in 2018. Its former debt concerns have mostly evaporated as it has shored up its balance sheet and continues to benefit from the stay-at-home movement.

The Industrials Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$J	$780	$7,800	$78,000
$GSL	$1940	$19,400	$194,000
$SPCE	$670	$6,700	$67,000
$AXON	$250	$2,500	$25,000
% Portfolio		15.1%

Click to enlarge

26. Jacobs Engineering (J) is a legacy holding I have loved for years. A long-time no-debt company that makes super-smart acquisitions now has low debt and has initiated a dividend which it should be able to grow nicely over the coming years. Its focus on carbon neutrality and diversity in its workforce makes it a prime target for the younger generation. It is currently my 10th largest holding in my retirement portfolio.

27. Global Ship Lease (GSL) is the reason my portfolio of stocks went from 45 stocks last month down to 37 stocks this month as I sold smaller positions to add a brand new monster position in my portfolio. GSL is now my 3rd largest holding and has benefitted from rapidly rising shipping rates in the space, particularly around Asia, as COVID-19 spurred massive scrapping of ships and containers in the industry in mid-2020. This massive turnaround in demand has resulted in GSL announcing the initiation of a dividend in Q1 of 2021, an upgrade in its credit rating from Moody's, an equity offering resulting in fleet expansion, and a refinancing of bad debt into much friendlier debt due in 2026 instead of 2022. I see its trend of good luck continuing as ships and containers take a long time to build especially as few are currently made outside of China.

28. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) is the only way to play commercial space flight at this time along with a very high short interest making it a potentially very volatile stock. This proved true when it delayed its next spaceflight all the way out to May resulting in the other main reason besides Bitcoin why my portfolio underperformed the SPY this month.

Data by YCharts

Still love the stock and the space but Virgin Galactic looks to be dead money until we close in on the May potential flight date.

Slide from Virgin Galactic's 2020 Q4 Earnings Presentation

29. Axon (AXON) is the maker of Taser as well as the bodysuits, cameras, and cloud software for officers across the United States. Phenomenal gains in this stock recently as well to start 2021. So many great stocks, so little money :).

I sold my last small position in Boeing (BA) as nothing seems to go right for this company and it had a great run from around $120 a share when I bought a bunch of it. Better to let it consolidate or fall for awhile and consider another position if it tanks again massively for whatever reason.

The Materials Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$GOLD	$840	$8,400	$84,000
$CLF	$320	$3,200	$32,000
% Portfolio		4.8%

Click to enlarge

30. Barrick Gold (GOLD) is a large and diversified gold miner that has exposure to multitudinous geographies across the globe. With the Fed and other monetary institutions printing money at record rates, Barrick has much further potential future upside but has slipped down to my 9th largest holding. The implementation of its "special dividend" over the rest of 2021 means I won't be selling shares anytime soon.

31. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is an Iron Range stock that acquired AK Steel at the end of 2019 and, more recently, announced the acquisition of ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) in late 2020 in a deal valued at $3.3B. Cleveland-Cliffs is well on its way to becoming a fully integrated steelmaker with clout in the U.S. A bipartisan infrastructure bill later in the year could do wonders for the iron and steel markets, but that is all hypothetical at this point and time.

Sold my Nickel Subindex (JJN) small position for a small gain along with my First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) holdings as I don't see the #silversqueeze narrative playing out as it once looked to do. I also would like to put more money into my Gold and Iron stocks as I see nice reasons to own both right now.

The Energy Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30k	$300k	$3M
$RDS/B	$520	$5,200	$52,000
$PBR	$340	$3,400	$34,000
$HAL	$350	$3,500	$35,000
% Portfolio		5.0%

Click to enlarge

32. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) is a leader in the oil industry with a dividend that management is looking to grow quickly after it slashed it earlier in 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns.

33. Petrobras (PBR) is a Brazil-based oil play with lots of potential if it can get past its scandal-ridden past. Unfortunately, Brazil President Bolsonaro recently named General Joaquim Silva e Luna to replace current CEO Roberto Castello Branco resulting in a huge crisis of faith in the company in its latest scandal. Can only be uphill from here I keep telling myself.

Data by YCharts

34. Halliburton (HAL) is a U.S.-based oil service company that dominates services in the North American market.

The Utility Sector (Aim = 5% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$DUK	$85	$850	$8,500
$D	$170	$1,700	$17,000
% Portfolio		1.1%

Click to enlarge

35. Duke (DUK) is a top utility play with a tremendous dividend which are the main features I look for in the Utility sector. It got slashed with the move to add further risk to my portfolio.

36. Dominion (D) is the other top utility play that I like with a very attractive dividend as a utility major. I will add to my utilities again once I feel that volatility in the market is stabilizing and outsized opportunities are once again in the rearview mirror.

The Real Estate Sector (Aim = 3% of my Stock holdings)

Stock	$30K	$300K	$3M
$AMT	$670	$6,700	$67,000
% Portfolio		2.8%

Click to enlarge

37. American Tower (AMT) is a premier U.S. cell phone tower company aggressively expanding globally across a few more continents. 5G evolution could be a lucrative tailwind for years to come. Can't think of a reason to add another real estate play so I just plan to keep adding to this holding over time.

Bonds (2% of my Stock holdings)

This asset class is currently satisfied by my mutual fund holdings.

My top 10 Holdings and Percentage of my Portfolio

Stock	Sector	% Portfolio
Bitcoin	Financials	6.3%
Disney	Communication Services	6.2%
Global Ship Lease	Industrials	5.8%
Arrowhead Pharm.	Health Care	5.5%
AT&T	Communication Services	2.9%
Apple	Info Tech	2.9%
J.P. Morgan	Financials	2.6%
QUALCOMM	Info Tech	2.5%
Barrick Gold	Materials	2.5%
Jacobs Engineering	Industrials	2.3%
Total % of Portfolio		~39.5%

Click to enlarge

Staying diversified across all sectors of the economy while making larger bets on your favorite stocks is a great way not only to beat the market, but have fun doing it as well. Stocks are one of the best ways to build wealth for retirement, and everyone should have the opportunity to share in the success of the best companies the world has to offer. Best of luck on another productive and lucrative year in 2021.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL, QCOM, XLNX, DELL, MSFT, ARWR, MDT, MDXG, LLY, PFE, DIS, T, WWE, GOOGL, GBTC, JPM, BLK, HSBC, AMZN, TSCO, MELI, PG, PEP, GIS, J, GSL, AXON, SPCE, GOLD, CLF, PBR, RDS.B, HAL, D, DUK, AMT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Comments

[Trent Welsh]

Sold good chunk of my $GSL for a small loss due to market volatility and drops in tech names etc. Bought some $AAPL, $AMZN, $AXON. Tiny starter position in $NEE (thanks @learning to be patient with mr mkt ), and smaller position in $TSLA now at under $600 a share. Best of luck. Still have a smaller position in $GSL but didn't get the earnings pop I was hoping for and big pullback in Tech means I want to make some moves now on stuff that has fallen significantly from recent tops.

[EdwardOC]

@Trent Welsh Glad to hear you mostly got out of $GSL. As per my previous comment, the market will soon find out GSL won't benefit from rising shipping rates. Check out $DAC in the meantime - news on multi year, new charters will emerge soon.

[Trent Welsh]

@EdwardOC Nod.. Bye bye most of my $GSL. Unfortunately in my Industrials sector I already have Jacobs $J (infrastructure bill) and Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) both of which I would add to easily at this time for stocks I'd be happy to never sell again at least at this time. Not really looking to add names in the space as I also added to $AXON in the space earlier in the week as well. Too crowded.

[drjoanv]

Would like to see an update on your portfolio after today's 3/4 crunch.
THanks.

[Trent Welsh]

@drjoanv I do bigger updates once a month as my retirement funds are spread out between IRA's, 401ks, and an HSA account etc. No reason to constantly update everything. Not hard to figure out big pullbacks in most of my tech along with some bio stocks. Fine by me as I'm adding key names like $AAPL and $AMZN. Quick look seems like I'm around $330k.. Maybe not as down as I was thinking after Friday's late rally especially after I repositioned.

[turkeystand]

thank you for an enjoyable read. tsco was not on my radar, but looks interesting for some dd. glty.

[markedwardphoto]

If your looking for a Beta return great. But, why not buy the index. If you are looking for more Alpha, why didn't you cut the number of names down and invest in a few mid-caps that have been running hot for the past year.

[Trent Welsh]

@markedwardphoto Index funds.. boooorrrinnngg.. following last years results... borrrrinnnngggg... I'm investing for two reasons.. retire with millions and have fun along the way :). I always try to look forward. Hope to improve with time but worth a shot :). Thanks for reading :).

[ShowMeDaMoney12345678910]

You picked alot of turds...

[Trent Welsh]

@ShowMeDaMoney12345678910 Even a turd looks good on its wedding day. Mark my words. :). One day AT&T $T will be worth the investment. If I only picked gems I would already own half of Hawaii and would pay my kids $1000 an hour to write my articles. As it is, I hope to only own 1/10 of Hawaii after another 30 years of investing. I'm ok with that.

[ShowMeDaMoney12345678910]

@Trent Welsh True! longterm I also like T.

[Reel Ken]

You start out by stating "....It is my firm belief that 80% of money managers can't outperform the S&P 500 index over time due primarily to the fees they charge their clients."

I want to point out that "firm beliefs" aren't "facts". There is no empirical data that indicates your "firm belief" to be based in fact. People once held a "firm belief" that the earth was flat !

In fact, it's very hard to make any determinate about money managers versus the S&P because the timing of inflows and outflows for money managers effects their returns. On the other hand, S&P returns are usually stated on the basis of all monies being invested as of January 1st with no withdrawals or additions.

Further complicating things, investors tend to pour money into managed funds at tops and pull them out at drops ... forcing money managers to buy/sell against their preferred methodologies. This further effecting returns for these funds.

As a result of these, and other factors, it is very hard to pin-point if they even underperform the S&P. ... all things being equal.

For even if a money manager invested all their funds in the S&P, their performance is likely to be variant (up or down) as a result of the cash flow timing issues.

But, what we do have some pretty good correlations is between money managers and DIY investors. Both being victimized by "emotional investing" and varying inflows/outflows And that data seems to indicate substantially better results for money managers than DIY.

[dmdwyer]

@Reel Ken Excellent points. However, there is something to be said for the customization afforded by a self-directed portfolio and the avoidance of other investors' in/outflows effecting your investments.

[Reel Ken]

@dmdwyer

Hi,

I'm a DIY investor, so I agree with you. My point was simply that to try and say pros underperform because of fees is just not provable.

[Trent Welsh]

@Reel Ken Causation is never provable. No one said its 100% true. However, correlation can be highly believable. Plenty of study's showing Money Managers aren't worth table salt at a Chuck E Cheese's. A 2 second search found CNBC says active fund managers trail S&P 500 for the 9th year in a row. www.cnbc.com/... No ones saying its Gospel, believe what you will :).

[Stefan Redlich]

Great portfolio update. Very well presented. You have a strategy, a plan and will do well I am sure :)

[Trent Welsh]

@Stefan Redlich Thanks for reading. Best of luck for your stocks as well :).

[Chris Lau]

Sell $PFE and $D.
That's 35 headaches instead of 37.
Your Bitcoin investment is a good diversification that paid off. Keep it up.

[Trent Welsh]

@Chris Lau Thanks for reading and the suggestions :). Have thought about getting rid of $D and focusing on DUK and maybe find something else. Might change my mind on $PFE if it continues to underperform like it has historically but willing to give it a shot.

[AI - Alternative Investing]

@Trent Welsh nee

[Jeremyl007]

Just here for your comments lol.. looks like you took some advice to trim down your number of holdings from last time

[Trent Welsh]

@Jeremyl007 Yep, also found a new stock I wanted to make a large bet on. I do this somewhat regularly. Consolidate, expand, rebalance etc. All part of the game for me. Hope I entertain you and best of luck on your bets :).

[vooch]

@Trent Welsh

way too many positions buddy

[Jeremyl007]

@vooch well better than 45 from last time.. I'll find time to post mine one day for people to critique

[charles1222]

BTCC-U trades on the TSX and is a new Bitcoin ETF with a very small premium to Bitcoin unlike BTC. The huge premium to Bitcoin in BTC is dangerous. However, as you point out, you have doubled your money. In the long run, I believe an ETF closely tracking Bitcoin’s price is a better value.

[Trent Welsh]

@charles1222 the Canada fund just came out I think so not many have that one yet. Also, if you have been paying attention, the latest drop in Bitcoin prices actually reduced GBTC's "premium" to a negative one which was the perfect time to add. The premium grows and shrinks and does not remain constant.

[charles1222]

@Trent Welsh So you only purchase when the premium goes negative?

[Trent Welsh]

@charles1222 Not in the past. Moving forward, means it's my largest individual stock, I would only buy at a discount until it was farther down the list of my largest individual stocks.

[six-oh]

Some free alpha for readers: when you are managing a small account, it is way more important to save money and contribute to your account than worry about "beating the market".

[Trent Welsh]

@six-oh That's why I start and will start my kids out with their first stocks and mutual funds with some of their own money when they start high school. Regular contributions over a long time horizon is huge.

[six-oh]

@Trent Welsh

I am not sure you understood my point. What I am saying is that when managing a 300k portfolio, it is much more important to build up capital than worry about "beating the market".

Once your portfolio is sizable, then "beating the market" becomes even less important and "risk-adjusted returns" become the focus.

[Trent Welsh]

@six-oh Lol, what's a sizable portfolio? You didn't give specifics. Tons and tons of retirees would love to have my portfolio in retirement right here and now. If you have more money than me in retirement right now you are beating many of your peers. Don't underestimate the little guy. I was interested in beating the market when I put in my first dollars into an individual stock as well as the first mutual funds I invested in. I will also be interested in beating the market when I have millions. I'll never settle for "risk-adjusted returns". Do you think warren buffet settles for "risk adjusted returns? Play your game and I'll play mine :).

[DeepInValue]

It's crazy to have that many stock for the small amounts. That's what Charlie Munger called "The idea of excessive diversification is madness."

[Trent Welsh]

@DeepInValue Yes, but I find it a very fun madness as I love stocks so its all good :). Thanks for reading :). And that is quite a lot of money to a lot of regular people which I am hoping to help inspire. Not here to impress billion $ hedge funds :).

[HardytheTrader]

Thanks for sharing your portfolio. May I ask some questions?

First how did you calculate the sector weightings? Is there any historical evidence for these sector weightings to be ideal especially from risk/reward standpoint? Second what are your criterias for picking stocks? I see growth, value and momentum randomly mixed up. Maybe I am missing a point? Third do you backtest your criterias? What were the results?

Looking forward for some color on your strategy

[Trent Welsh]

@HardytheTrader My sector weightings change over time with what I feel is best for my portfolio at that time and is not based on historical performance as I always try to look forward and not behind. Its a random jumble of stocks because it is meant to be diversified across many circumstances with me trying to pick some of the best/better stocks in each instance.

[EdwardOC]

@Trent Welsh, not counting $BTC, your #2 stock $GSL has vastly underperformed its peers in container shipping, as the management, IMO, was too eager or possibly forced to lock in multi year charter middle of last year when the rates were much lower than now. While the sector leader $DAC will see its old contracts expire and sign lucrative deals this year, $GSL won't be in situation, per your quote, to "benefit from rapidly rising shipping rates in the space". I would appreciate if you find otherwise. I'm long $DAC.

[Trent Welsh]

@EdwardOC $GSL has had 19 new charters since last July according to their January presentation so that's like 3 new charters a month or so. They are doing fine I think in getting new contracts at higher valuations and I think pricing continues to rise lifting all the boats in the sector.

[The Rutledge Group]

You have 37 headaches. At your level you should be in index funds only.

[2CommaClub]

@The Rutledge Group

Yeah; I've starting to believe Buffest is right about casual investors putting most of their money in index funds. I've been doing this for 15 years and while I had some nice gains along the way; the risks i took were gigantic compared to just an index fund.

I definitely wouldn't manage 37 holdings lol.

[Trent Welsh]

@The Rutledge Group Its not a headache when its fun. This is what I do for fun :). Index only sounds like the most boring thing ever. But of course, that's just my opinion.

[robbh5970]

@The Rutledge Group

You learn a lot more investing in individual stocks. If you are going to buy ETFs you might as well go one step further and just get a financial planner to make all your investing decisions.

[Alex Pitti]

You called apple a cornerstone, but only have a 2.9% weighting. I wouldn't say that's a cornerstone.

[Trent Welsh]

@Alex Pitti Yep. Apple is actually my next build probably right after I sell my $GSL. Apple is a bigger position than that when you take into account all my mutual funds many which are FANG orientated and own a lot of Apple. Apple down to my 6th largest individual holding is too low though so looking to build it up 50%-100% from current shares here later this month is the plan. One of the reasons I made room in the Info. Tech sector in my portfolio last month was to get ready for this build. I definitely noticed Apple falling down my investment ladder also and will remedy.

[AI - Alternative Investing]

@Trent Welsh just buy brk.b for ample aapl coverage

[Trent Welsh]

@learning to be patient with mr mkt Yea, one of my fondest wishes is to own a share of brk.a before Buffet heads off into the sunset. Fingers crossed.

[Sherif Marcos]

Having AT&T instead of a stock like FB at current valuations in a retirement portofolio is just wrong in my opinion and I never think there's right or wrong in investing but this might be an exception. Why HAL instead of SLB? Genuine question. And no WMT?

[Trent Welsh]

@Sherif Marcos AT&T is a dividend stock and is supposed to be a hedge against all my growth stocks and mutual funds geared towards the FANG names. I want a lot of true diversity in case there is another tech crash and AT&T fits the bill. If they ever get their act together returns might be surprisingly good when you add it all together.

Chose HAL over SLB mainly because HAL is North American based instead of more international. Owned it for like 10 years so was awhile back when I picked it up and not a recent acquisition. Never felt the need to sell it means it's the leader here.

[slinghook]

Say it ain't so Trent - you sell Sarepta while expressing enthusiasm over Bitcoin being your largest holding? I truly hate to say it but you've got those reversed. Bitcoin has only one way to move and it's back down to earth. The fall will be brutal. As for Sarepta, you've been a bull for years and you know their story - just truly stunned that you sold.

[Trent Welsh]

@slinghook I've made over like $15k on Sarepta and have loved it for years. It was a hard decision to move on. However, I hope to get back in but in instances like this I think it's dead money for most of the rest of 2021 to be frank. I'd much rather invest elsewhere and look at grabbing a stake again at the end of 2021 when I rebalance again. I love the results and drugs but I find it hard to find other companies with as much bad luck as Sarepta has had. I'm in again on the stock in late 2021 most likely. Sorry to disappoint but I have other fish to fry in the meantime.

[Chasebmnt]

Hi Trent - I love this article, thank you. Toward the beginning of the article, it said in the context of tracking the SPY so far for 2021 that it seems to start the months strong then sell off toward the end of each month. Did you mean to say ‘weeks’ maybe? If so, I’ve been noticing the same trend, last week being a good example of starting really strong Monday and Tuesday, then poof the rug getting pulled. And now today seems to be starting this week strong. Anyway, seems like a weekly mini-trend lately.

[Trent Welsh]

@Chasebmnt Behavior is always hard to track and analyze but definitely some volatile moves in the markets weekly and monthly which means lots of opportunity for those willing to pull the buy and sell buttons.

[SilverBandit]

@Trent walsh: 1) what's your bitcoin cost basis? 2) "14. World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) is one of the few remaining live event media stocks growing globally, while always a potential takeover target from juggernauts like Disney." Disney is NOT going to buy WWE.

[Trent Welsh]

@SilverBandit I bought and sold bitcoin $GBTC a few times last year and made a few thousand dollars and decided in December of 2020 that I would buy some and not sell the rips anymore, but hopefully add to it over time. After todays action my average cost for 490 shares of $GBTC was ~$21.31 with today closing at $45.82. My $10,440.90 investment in December of 2020 has turned into $22,451.80 after todays close.

Disney's not looking for an acquisition anytime soon after swallowing FOX and WWE isn't looking for a buyer either. But maybe a few years from now you never know. Stranger things have happened.

[SilverBandit]

@Trent Welsh That's wonderful. I made a 104k profit after I sold 6 bitcoins this year. I actually wish I would have sold 3 then kept the other 3. Oh, well. As for Disney, I just don't see the House of Mouse buying a company like WWE. I can see another entertainment conglomerate buying it though.

[Trent Welsh]

@SilverBandit I thought of buying bitcoin itself back when it was like $400 a coin. Got a wallet set up along with the amazingly long and complex key and couldn't pull the trigger as I couldn't bear for it to go crazy then lose the key. I'm more than happy to just own the stock without a wallet and huge passcode. Congrats on taking the plunge when I couldn't. Hope it continues to change your life :).