Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

G1 Therapeutics - Brighter Days Ahead

Mar. 02, 2021 3:21 PM ETG1 Therapeutics, Inc. (GTHX)24 Comments
The GARP Investor profile picture
The GARP Investor


  • G1 Therapeutics' first in class drug, Myelosuppression drug, Cosela has blockbuster potential.
  • Management has positioned the company to succeed in their commercialization efforts.
  • Massive sell-off after FDA approval has created a buying opportunity in the stock.

Investing in a start-up biotech company is an absolute roller coaster. Clinical trials can both bring highs and lows to excess in terms of stock price and subsequently investor interest / confidence. The industry is admittedly risky, but that should not deter anyone from looking for potential market beating investments.

I believe that the recent approval of oncology drug Trilaciclib (commercial name Cosela) in Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer from company G1 Therapeutics (NASDAQ:GTHX) has made the company worth looking into, and the subsequent approval-led sell-off by short-term profit takers has brought the stock price to a level I feel makes a compelling investment long term. It looks to me that the market is pricing in massively sub-par performances from the drug, and anything more will produce a large increase in the stock price. The company is also not a one trick pony, as Cosela is undergoing multiple other clinical trials in different cancers with larger addressable markets. G1 also has another compound in clinical trials called Rintodestrant, an oral SERD that it expects phase 2 data on in the second quarter of 2021.


The side effects of chemotherapy are well documented. A common side effect of high cycle chemotherapy is myelosuppression, which cancer.gov describes as "A condition in which bone marrow activity is decreased, resulting in fewer red blood cells, white blood cells, and platelets."

While decreased red blood cell production is serious and can potentially lead to Anemia, specific white blood cells called Neutrophils are especially important. If Neutrophil count reaches 1,500 per microliter of blood, a condition called Neutropenia occurs. This can be a severe problem in the chemo process, as it lowers the bodies’ immune response to fight potential life-threatening infections. Neutropenia is a leading cause of the discontinuation of chemo treatments, which in turn derails a patient’s chances of survival long term. Myeloablation, a

This article was written by

The GARP Investor profile picture
I have spent the better part of the last 5 years learning everything I can possibly take in about equities. To say it is my life’s passion would be an understatement. I try to find companies that I believe have a long road of growth ahead of them, and pay what I feel is a discount to their intrinsic value. Joel Greenblatt and Peter Lynch are my heroes.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long GTHX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Comments (24)

I hold an overweight position in GTHX, but remain concerned about the level of de-risking. The drug works, the condition is critical and expansion to other indications seems highly likely. My concern is the cost of the drug, considering that it is similar to a vaccine - treating to avoid illness, as opposed to treating and illness. Any thoughts, as well as where reimbursement stand, would be appreciated.
my dog profile picture
@papaloapan Watch the cosela kickoff presentation link is on the company website. All your questions are covered there.
Tom W Dorsey profile picture
NOw is when you start buying/adding to GTHX, if you believe th einvestment thesis. The commercialization risk has been factored into the stock, I think its oversold based on the stellar management and CCO--they have the experience.

Its all about market uptake and execution. Bailey ran US ops for Glaxo and has almost 3 decades of pharm experience and the CCO successfully rolled out Tafamidis for Pfizer to the tune of over $1b in annual sales. These guys have the experience and pedigree to succeed. Further, they partnered with Boehringer Ingelheim for 3 years to crank up the sales pump and establish the market. I'm confident they will execute. KNOW WHAT YOU OWN! Have a plan and execute. GLTA.
@Tom W Dorsey I have been loading the dips, especially the one a year ago where it dropped to 10, consistently. G1 is my largest holding at over 45K shares. I believe in the product, management team, and vision for Trila as a platform asset
my dog profile picture
@Tom W Dorsey Couldn't agree more. Especially after watching the 2 hour investor kickoff. Adding on the dips.
javings profile picture
Thank you TGI, for a very well put together article on GTHX. The article reminded and reinforced my decision of why I own GTHX.
This will be a $100+ stock in a year. Mark this post
@ars228 I guess you were wrong.
@Astute that I was. Still holding on
my dog profile picture
Thanks for a very informative article. Your scenarios give one plenty to chew on.
Curiosity Killed The Cat profile picture
I know the price action has been disappointing, but the IBB is down over 10% since trilaciclib was approved. So the stock is not getting any support from the overall biotech market. Plus, stocks with high institutional ownership often suffer when institutions move to sell in unison, which they often do, after a significant binary event like an FDA approval.

Looking forward, we have several catalysts coming up in the 2nd quarter. Most importantly, we have the publication of the rintodestrant/palbociclib data from the forty-patient combination trial conducted last spring. I can’t overstate how vital this catalyst will be as good data likely lands G1 a tier-one pharma partner for rintodestrant - possibly even Pfizer. So keep an eye open for that press release.

Outside of trilaciclib early sales numbers, which, if encouraging, should move the share price needle, we can look forward to press releases announcing the start of the TNBC, NSCLC, and BC trials. All three should occur in the second quarter. Less newsworthy but important for trilaciclib’s future development will be announcements of the initiation of investigator-sponsored studies G1 is soliciting for gastrointestinal, pancreatic, ovarian, sarcoma, and other cancers both as monotherapy and in combination with checkpoint inhibitors. One long-overdue press release is an announcement of the filing of a Marketing Authorization Application with the EMA for trilaciclib in SCLC. This filing was supposed to have occurred in 2020 but may have been delayed as the company awaited FDA approval. So we should hear about that shortly too.
@Curiosity Killed The Cat what do you view as a positive outcome in the Rinto data? The population in the study released at SABCS was so heavily pretreated it was hard to assess viability
Curiosity Killed The Cat profile picture

The SABCS data reflects a “signal” of rintodestrant efficacy in a very heavily pretreated patient population. More importantly, that data reflects rintodestrant’s excellent safety profile. What you want to see in the upcoming rintodestrant/palbociclib combination data is a continuation of that excellent safety profile and a Clinical Benefit Response (CBR) rate that approaches or exceeds the 66.6% seen in the fulvestrant/palbociclib PALOMA-3 trial (see pg. 2, Table 1.).
@Curiosity Killed The Cat Thank you very helpful. Have been busy accumulating today : )
MikeFromNZ profile picture
Thanks for the excellent article.
Great text, excellent summary of a bullish company. I can only see one but: COSELA is not a treatment. It is basically a coadjuvant, or a protector of cell decay due to an already expensive treatment. So it is not medics and patients that will have to be shown the benefits (those will buy in without any problem), but the element paying the bills. In this crisis patients might not buy in the treatment due to the economic crisis and pandemics affecting their free cashflows for another year, and the insurance companies that will have to allow it's usage in an already expensive bill, knowing that they only do calculate the margins of ongoing treatments, never thinking about the long term advantages, or state owned hospitals (Europe) that constantly struggle with budget cuts (and extra bills for corona fights)...so even scenario 3 during covid times might be a good result.
Thank you for great scenario! Wish we could see the raise of G1 in near future!
From Russia with all respect and love!
Thank you for the article about one of my favorite stocks GTHX. You missed a highly important point. Between mid January and the beginning of February the company executed an ATM-programm that brings the cash position to roughly $293 mio. and a cash run away to 2023. Also I have to highlight the Boehringer deal. Not to build a costly sales force in time of Corona, but using the skills of a highly respected sales force was a prudent move that will only cost money in case of success. A possible of label use is an additional positiv that is not priced in. I see the stock price at least tripple in the coming 12-18 month.
Great Article.
The GARP Investor profile picture
@Brian Watergate Buffalo-Volmer thank you! Appreciate you taking the time to read.
Beadnix profile picture
Thanks for the update on this company. I own a bit already but with the stock price lagging I think it's time to add some more!
The GARP Investor profile picture
@Deo.volente couldn’t agree more! Thanks for reading!
Geloo profile picture
Cosela has huge potential. Oncologists will use this drug because it helps their patients. I believe in time they will use it in outside the label patients for the myelo preservation. The product would be a perfect addition to an onc sales force bag to gain more valuable face time with prescribers. I have to believe several onc companies with deep pockets are looking seriously at buying this company. Sure, I could be wrong, but this interesting, innovative therapy in sales reps bags is just what the doctor ordered.
The GARP Investor profile picture
@Geloo totally agree on both points. I find it hard to believe that the bigger oncology players won’t take a hard look at GTHX once we start getting initial sales numbers from Cosela. I’d almost rather them continue on their own without a buyout if they prove they can commercialize. For the time being at least
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!

About GTHX

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
Yield (TTM)
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on GTHX

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.