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Crypto Chartbook - Bitcoin On The Move

Mar. 03, 2021 11:23 AM ETBitcoin USD (BTC-USD) CryptoGBTC34 Comments
Florian Grummes profile picture
Florian Grummes


  • Sustainability is where large long-term profits can be made, and Bitcoin doesn't disappoint.
  • We see no indication from the most critical larger time frame why Bitcoin prices could not continue to advance soon, even to surpass their all-time highs within the next months.
  • Bitcoin most likely gets pushed one more time to lower price levels before advancing.
  • Our daily chart shows the three most likely probability scenarios.

With risk in mind, we perceived the recent retracement in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and the Grayscale Trust (OTC:GBTC) with joy. The trend is your friend, and as such, its health is where a trader focuses on. The market needs to breathe, and without price declines, a trend isn't sustainable. Sustainability is where large long-term profits can be made, and Bitcoin doesn't disappoint.

Our optimism for further advances is principle-based. The following analysis shows why we perceive a continuation in price advances with low-risk entry possibilities.

BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, A healthy breath:

BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of March 1st, 2021.

A glance at the monthly chart above shows that as much as the trend is steep, it is in good health. The upper wicks on the monthly candles indicate a healthy breath. What expands must retrace. And Bitcoin does just that. It has strong pushes upwards but then gives profits partially back. It takes a deep breath up to be followed by harmonious breathing out. We see no indication from the most critical larger time frame why Bitcoin prices could not continue to advance soon, even to surpass their all-time highs within the next months. There is no blow-off volume plotted nor irregular fractal volume distribution of supply and demand zones. There are no warning signals of ill health. This athlete is fit for a marathon.

BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Most likely:

BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2021.

All trading instruments have their probabilistic personality. Bitcoin is volatile and has typically larger retracements in size. These personalities provide for a good mathematical guideline of what is most likely to happen. Of course, they can also change over time).

A closer look at the weekly chart above shows prices to sit right below a distribution zone indicated by a volume analysis showing

This article was written by

Florian Grummes profile picture
Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 25 years of experience in financial markets. Via Midas Touch Consulting he is publishing weekly gold, silver, bitcoin & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one often accurate conclusion about the markets. www.midastouch-consulting.com

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long BTC-USD. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (34)

With ALL this potential for Bit coin specifically and crypto currency secondarily , moves ; what backs these moves ?
Montana13 profile picture
It's on the move today, for sure. Maybe some panic coming tomorrow after the 1,000,000 new jobs report?
Lesson: As BTC rises, take increments off the table. If it corrects, buy back when it's 20-25% down as the trend is upward and BTC will rebound. I've done this twice, making $12k the first time and up $8k on my second time.
kjseagle1 profile picture
@coloradan nice working plan - do you just put in your coinbase wallet, wait it out ?
Kayden1 profile picture
$200K+ USD this year. Don't hold past October.
FlagFootballSaint profile picture
Why not?
SilverBullit profile picture
@Kayden1 @FlagFootballSaint Late September through the end of the year could mark the start of the next bear market in crypto based on the historical 4-year cycle it has gone through since inception. You won't want to hold ANY coins during that time, except maybe stable coins that give you a nice yield on all those gains.
FlagFootballSaint profile picture

So why would the past be an indicator of the future for this unpredictible asset?
kjseagle1 profile picture
good article---scenario 3 appears to be happening now.
jimbo162 profile picture
interesting charts Florian. the upside has much potential
Phony analitycs is not going to help bitcoin. Bitcoin fails as a currency and as a store value. There will no doubt be a digital currency perhaps backed by blockchain and some real asset. Short of that it is just a pyramid scheme hyped by notable players that have a vested interest. This sort of volatile behavior is clear evidence that btc will someday go to 0.
@ababich1 yeah man. 12 years of failure. Just look at that chart. Surely it's all over once it hits 250k, right?
FlagFootballSaint profile picture

Why do you think more and more big gun investors and institutional investors are leveraging bitcoin in their portfolio?
Really interested to understand if there is something you know which they don't.....
They are not. Most are in it for fees...THEY HAVE NO SERIOUS MONEY INVESTED.
Man, am I kicking myself for not getting into cryoto years ago. It's so much better than gold, which goes nowhere even during "rallies". In a few short months, I've almost tripled my initial investment, even with a very conservative and defensive trading strategy. Even if BTC went to zero this instant, the realized profits I locked in would still dwarf the rest of my portfolio combined.
Dont forget all the Bitcoin miners having huge increase in revenue with this Bitcoin creation boom RIOT, MARA, BFARF, HVBTF, INTV and my favorite newcomer in Virginia BFCH. Go BTC..
kjseagle1 profile picture
@viperultimaevolution do you have more info on BFCH... how many miners in operation--on order and what are they mining---BTC or ETH?
thank you
Hoi-polloi profile picture
@kjseagle1 I don’t think they have any yet operational...supposedly any day, for the last few weeks...beware
@kjseagle1 they have 2,000 ASIC miners and are putting them in 3M immersion fluid tanks for cooling, no fans
Appreciate the look at bitcoin.
But these analyses always leave me wanting.
I am an experienced data analyst--though in pharma and engineering--and it's clear bitcoin and other crypto data shows no reasonable connection to reality.
My question--mostly to myself--is how will we know crypto is operating in some reasonable way? Namely a way that allows for reasonably accurate medium and long term predictions.
I'm guessing it will take adoption on broad and stable enough levels to lock movements to reality.
I'm also a physicist and at the moment crypto is on the level of quantum mechanics--interesting, predictable in some ways, but mostly mysterious and functions in ways that are hidden and unpredictable. Even scary.

The way I sleep at night is to only have a minor stake in crypto at the moment, Though like a lot of people, recent events has my stake now not so minor.
sliman21 profile picture
@M495 Read The Bitcoin Standard and Dan Held's papers.
@M495 you pose very good questions, but to answer your rhetorical question with another: how do you know that *any* asset is trading in a "reasonable" manner? My follow-up question would be: as long as you make money, does it even matter? We're currently in an everything bubble. When the bubble pops, it doesn't matter whether you're in something sane and rational like blue chips, or something volatile like crypto. You're going to get demolished either way if you don't get out the exit door early. The shape of the curve might look different between asset classes, but you're going to make a quick trip to the same endpoint.

I do like your comparison of crypto to quantum mechanics though. Crypto does have subjective eigen attributes. Even though the Shroedinger model isn't applicable here, crypto in an abstract sense can definitely be seen as a superposition of states, much more so than traditional equities and bonds.
Mebarrett3 profile picture
@M495 metcalfe’s law
Those charts vastly underestimate how fast Bitcoin moves in a bull run. Close to $80k by end of year...more like by end of April as the next step up before the next weeks long correction. $100k+ is likely to happen by July.
SilverBullit profile picture
Good stuff as always Florian. In all of those scenarios I expect ETH to outperform BTC.
FlagFootballSaint profile picture

Why do you think that? 

ETH only seems to follow whatever Big Daddy BTC does. ETH does not seem to have a (charts-)life on its own.....
SilverBullit profile picture
@FlagFootballSaint What happened in January when BTC corrected? While BTC finished the month pretty much right where it started, ETH went up about $1000 (~720 to ~1720). ETH does follow BTC, it lags then outperforms, lags then outperforms. The ETH-BTC chart is beautiful. I think can you can at least 3x BTC gains by being in ETH in 2021. Or if you watch the chart closely you can bounce back and forth between the two a make a killing. ETH loves a correcting BTC (as long as it is not crashing).
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