Jacob Rubin From Philosophy Capital On Eros STX

Summary

• Jacob Rubin, CIO at Philosophy Capital, discusses the investment thesis for Eros STX.
• He talks about the near term upside and likelihood of the company refinancing their debt.
• Also discuss the long term upside as the STX ramps their business and Eros Now gains momentum.

Jacob Rubin, managing member and CIO at Philosophy Capital, joins the podcast to talk about his long thesis on Eros STX (ESGC), how he thinks the stock could respond to a global refi, and the long term upside as they successful integrate their assets.

Disclosure: ESGC is a small cap and has a going concern risk; please do your own work and remember nothing on here is investing advice

Chapters

• 0:00​ - Intro
• 4:00​ - Eros overview
• 6:00​ - Pattern recognition from Loral (LORL)
• 10:15​ - LORL's upside optionality / Canadian C-Band
• 16:00​ - ESGC's solvable credit problem
• 19:30​ - Eros's history with short reports
• 22:40​ - Taking comfort in Liberty and Eros's CFO DD
• 29:30​ - Pushing back on asset value
• 36:00​ - Quantifying the post-refi upside
• 52:40​ - Pushing back on the STX upside
• 1:00:30​ - Pushing back the Eros Now Upside
• 1:11:40​ - Quantifying the upside

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Comments

[ValueIV]

This writeup taught me a lesson of $15K. I bought 12K shares at $2.20, and sold them at $0.86 last week.

[bazooooka]

@ValueIV need to plays dozens of these and you'll have positive value on the basket. Picking a few requires luck since these are special situation with multi bagger potential or risk of ruin if things break bad.

[Exile of the Mainstream]

@ValueIV It was a pump and dump.

[ricktrader01]

This story really deserves a follow up given Rubin’s comment that he’d be very concerned if Refi wasn’t completed by June.

[ricktrader01]

Rubin said he’d be really concerned if refi wasn’t announced by June. Can we get a follow up?

[Jack R. censored]

I think the refi may be close and today's announcement is to avoid reporting subsequent events. new due date is july 2021 for the audited FY FS

[The Actuarial Investor]

@Jack R. Hmm I thought that the deadline for 20-F is 6 months after fiscal YE - which would make September 2021!! I hope you're right and it's me who has made a mistake!

[Megan 01]

@Jack R. Who said July 2021

[Jack R. censored]

@The Actuarial Investor @Megan 01

guys sorry, I criticized a bad and misleading article a few times and since then SA censors my account, so all posts need to be released manually.
Answering your question: The SEC reporting requirement stipulates that the 20-F is filed within four months after the end of the fiscal year. In their case, that deadline would be July 31, 2021, given their March 31 fiscal year-end.

[ericgd220]

Jacob, you said you'd be concerned if refi was not in place by the end of April. Nervous now?

[aNDYsCAPP]

Thank God I did not buy it even though was about and looking into it! My take was that there is too much competition in streaming and content production in India from the big boys..

[Murad Shawar]

@aNDYsCAPP They dont just play in india look at stx side of business also .

[The Actuarial Investor]

Need a follow-up from Jacob Rubin with his opinion on the current carnage

[ValueIV]

@dibby2010 cannot agree more!

[Exile of the Mainstream]

@GM lover Pretty bad for a guy to pump a small cap on youtube and then not discuss with retail investors.

[ricktrader01]

Would love an update from Jacob Rubin on his thoughts around who bought TPG shares now that no filings have come out showing a buyer.

[Exile of the Mainstream]

Massacre here.

[Rgarga]

Any updates? I left and emailed Mr. Andy Warren with no response

[aNDYsCAPP]

Good content thanks

[Ashgrove]

nice review of the situation; any follow up comments on TPG being the seller of those 2 million share blocks recently as reported in filings today? thanks

[msamadhi]

i really liked this video; very thoughtful and intelligently presented...i am an ESGC investor and have high hopes for their business success....i don't borrow to "short" stocks, but invest in companies with a positive attitude towards their long term success...refinancing and paying off their debt is again the key term in the equation....

[Murad Shawar]

@msamadhi I have a total of 1000 shares do you think when they refinance market will reward them with a spike . Also what’s the odds they get bought out seems like they have decent assets .

[Florin Dobre]

This is definitely a risky play, but I’m bullish on it. There’s quite some space for them to grow and improve and I’m fairly confident they’ll handle it well.

Also, some good points raised on the podcast, been listening to it on and off since it was uploaded.

[Murad Shawar]

@Florin Dobre I personally dont mind them doing a reverse split then diluting if they clean up all debt and have cash on hand then begin growing subs LONG EROS STX it will get bought out or produce great content and shares will rise short term pain long term gain.